2026 United States Senate special election in Florida
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The 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Republican appointee Ashley Moody and Democratic state representative Angie Nixon are the nominees for their respective parties. The winner will complete the term won in 2022 by Marco Rubio, who resigned in 2025 to become Secretary of State.
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November 3, 2026
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After being appointed to the seat, Moody won the Republican nomination against minimal opposition. Alex Vindman, the former director of European Affairs for the National Security Council, was considered the Democratic frontrunner, but despite having a significant fundraising advantage, Nixon won the nomination with 56.1% of the vote in a major upset.
Democrats have not won a Senate race in Florida since 2012.
Background
Marco Rubio, a U.S. senator from Florida since 2010, was announced as president-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of State in November 2024.[1] He was confirmed by the Senate on January 20, 2025 in a 99-0 vote.[2] Ashley Moody, the attorney general of Florida, was named by state governor Ron DeSantis to fill Rubio's vacant Senate seat, and was sworn in the day after Rubio's confirmation.[3][4] Rubio's resignation triggered a special election for 2026, the next statewide election cycle in Florida. The victor of the special election will serve for the remainder of Rubio's term, until a regular election for a full term in 2028 is held.[5][6]
Interim appointment
Appointee
- Ashley Moody, Florida attorney general (2019–2025)[7]
Considered but not appointed
- Kat Cammack, U.S. representative from Florida's 3rd congressional district (2021–present)[7]
- Jay Collins, state senator from the 14th district (2022–2025)[7]
- Laurel Lee, U.S. representative from Florida's 15th congressional district (2023–present)[8]
- Cory Mills, U.S. representative from Florida's 7th congressional district (2023–present)[7]
- James Uthmeier, chief of staff to Governor Ron DeSantis (2021–2025)[8]
Declined to be considered
- Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida (2019–present), former U.S. representative from Florida's 6th congressional district (2013–2018), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016, and candidate for president in 2024[9]
- Lara Trump, former co-chair of the Republican National Committee (2024–2025) and daughter-in-law of President Donald Trump[10]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ashley Moody, incumbent U.S. senator (2025–present)[11]
Eliminated in primary
Not on ballot
- Jake Lang, podcaster and participant in the January 6 U.S. Capitol attack[13]
- Alix Toulme, religion founder and perennial candidate[14]
Declined
- Matt Gaetz, former U.S. representative from Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–2024)[15]
Endorsements
Ashley Moody
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[16]
- U.S. senators
- U.S. representatives
- Aaron Bean, FL-04 (2023–present)[19]
- Gus Bilirakis, FL-12 (2007–present)[19]
- Vern Buchanan, FL-16 (2013–present)[20]
- Kat Cammack, FL-03 (2021–present)[19]
- Mario Díaz-Balart, FL-26 (2003–present)[19]
- Byron Donalds, FL-19 (2021–present)[21]
- Neal Dunn, FL-02 (2017–present)[19]
- Scott Franklin, FL-18 (2021–present)[19]
- Mike Haridopolos, FL-08 (2025–present)[19]
- Laurel Lee, FL-15 (2023–present)[22]
- Brian Mast, FL-21 (2017–present)[19]
- Jimmy Patronis, FL-01 (2025–present)[19]
- Statewide officials
- Wilton Simpson, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2023–present)[23]
- Multi-county officials
- 15 state attorneys[24]
- County officials
- Ric Bradshaw, Palm Beach County sheriff (2005–present) (Democratic)[11]
- Mike Chitwood, Volusia County sheriff (2017–present) (independent)[11]
- Chad Chronister, Hillsborough County sheriff (2017–present)[11]
- Rosie Cordero-Stutz, Miami-Dade County sheriff (2025–present)[11]
- Bob Gualtieri, Pinellas County sheriff (2011–present)[11]
- Grady Judd, Polk County sheriff (2005–present)[11]
- Dennis Lemma, Seminole County sheriff (2017–present)[11]
- John Mina, Orange County sheriff (2018–present) (Democratic)[11]
- T. K. Waters, Duval County sheriff (2022–present)[11]
- Morris A. Young, Gadsden County sheriff (2004–present) (Democratic)[11]
- 54 other county sheriffs[11]
- Labor unions
- Florida Fraternal Order of Police[25]
- Organizations
- Associated Builders and Contractors of Florida[26]
- Florida Association of Realtors[27]
- Florida Chamber of Commerce[28]
- Florida Farm Bureau Federation[29]
- Maggie's List[30]
- National Association of Realtors[27]
- National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund[31]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[32]
- Political parties
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of July 29, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ashley Moody (R) | $11,259,074 | $2,776,253 | $8,482,821 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[34] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ashley Moody (incumbent) | 1,320,048 | 79.6 | |
| Republican | Chris Gleason | 227,843 | 13.7 | |
| Republican | Ernie Rivera | 79,915 | 4.8 | |
| Republican | Neelam Taneja Perry | 31,217 | 1.9 | |
| Total votes | 1,659,023 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Campaign
Democratic socialist Angie Nixon won the nomination over Alex Vindman, despite Vindman having amassed $16.3 million in campaign funding compared to Nixon's $975,000.[36][37] Nixon campaigned on universal healthcare, free childcare, and a national rent freeze.[38] Nixon had criticized Vindman for having only recently moved to Florida; Vindman ignored her and attacked the Republican candidate, Moody.[36] The result was considered a major upset.[36][37]
Candidates
Nominee
- Angie Nixon, state representative from the 13th district (2020–present)[39]
Eliminated in primary
- Alex Vindman, former director of European affairs for the U.S. National Security Council, whistleblower in the 2019 Trump–Ukraine scandal, and brother of U.S. representative Eugene Vindman[40]
Did not qualify
- Joey Atkins, attorney and nominee for Florida's 26th congressional district in 2024[41]
- Alex Gould, business owner[42]
- Alan Grayson, former U.S. representative from Florida's 9th congressional district (2009–2011, 2013–2017) (running for U.S. House)[43]
Withdrawn
- Jennifer Jenkins, former Brevard County school board member (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Vindman)[44]
- Tamika Lyles, former chair of the Osceola County Democratic Black Caucus (running for U.S. House)[45]
- Hector Mujica, tech executive (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Vindman)[46]
- Josh Weil, teacher, nominee for Florida's 6th congressional district in the 2025 special election, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[47]
Declined
- Jerry Demings, mayor of Orange County (2018–present) and husband of former U.S. representative Val Demings (ran for governor)[48]
- Jared Moskowitz, U.S. representative from Florida's 23rd congressional district (2023–present) (running for re-election)[49]
Endorsements
Angie Nixon
- U.S. representatives
- Maxwell Frost, FL-10 (2023–present)[50]
- Ilhan Omar, MN-05 (2019–present)[51]
- Ayanna Pressley, MA-07 (2019–present)[52]
- Rashida Tlaib, MI-12 (2019–present)[53]
- State legislators
- LaVon Bracy Davis, state senator from the 15th district (2025–present)[54]
- Anna Eskamani, state representative from the 42nd district (2018–present)[50]
- Michele Rayner, state representative from the 62nd district (2020–present)[55]
- Individuals
- Ms. Rachel, YouTuber and children's educator[56]
- Labor unions
- Organizations
- Democratic Progressive Caucus of Florida[58]
- Dream Defenders[59]
- Emgage[60]
- Jewish Voice for Peace[61]
- National Organization for Women[62]
- Progressive Democrats of America[63]
- Progressive Victory[64]
- Track AIPAC[65]
- US Campaign for Palestinian Rights[66]
- Vote Mama[67]
- Working Families Party[68]
- Newspapers
Alexander Vindman
- U.S. senators
- Tammy Duckworth, Illinois (2017–present)[50]
- Mark Kelly, Arizona (2020–present)[71]
- Jack Reed, Rhode Island (1997–present)[50]
- U.S. representatives
- Jamie Raskin, MD-08 (2017–present)[72]
- State legislators
- Lori Berman, minority leader of the Florida Senate (2025–present) from the 26th district (2018–present)[73]
- Dan Daley, state representative from the 96th district (2019–present)[74]
- Michael Gottlieb, state representative from the 102nd district (2018–present)[75]
- Tina Polsky, state senator from the 30th district (2020–present) (previously endorsed Jenkins)[76]
- Debra Tendrich, state representative from the 89th district (2024–present)[77]
- Local officials
- Manny Diaz, former mayor of Miami (2001–2009)[78]
- Jennifer Jenkins, former Brevard County school board member and former candidate for this seat[44]
- Individuals
- Larry David, comedian and producer[79]
- Paul Eaton, former deputy chief of staff for the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command[80]
- Hector Mujica, tech executive, former candidate for this seat and candidate for Florida's 26th congressional district in 2026[46]
- Mary L. Trump, psychologist, writer, and niece of President Donald Trump and sister of Fred Trump III[81]
- Labor unions
- Organizations
- End Citizens United[84]
- Florida Democratic Party Veterans Caucus[85]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[86]
- VoteVets[80]
- Newspapers
Jennifer Jenkins (withdrawn)
- U.S. representatives
- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, former FL-26 (2019–2021) and nominee for U.S. senate in 2024[89]
- State legislators
Tina Polsky, state senator from the 30th district (2020–present)[89] (switched endorsement to Vindman after Jenkins withdrew)
Hector Mujica (withdrawn)
- U.S. representatives
- Adam Smith, WA-09 (1997–present)[90]
Fundraising
Italics indicate a withdrawn candidate.
| Campaign finance reports as of July 29, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Angie Nixon (D) | $974,845 | $709,866 | $264,978 |
| Alex Vindman (D) | $16,273,862 | $9,020,003 | $7,253,859 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[34] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Angie Nixon |
Alex Vindman |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[91] | July 9–11, 2026 | — (LV) | — | 24% | 34% | 2%[c] | 41% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Angie Nixon | 705,192 | 56.1 | |
| Democratic | Alex Vindman | 552,774 | 43.9 | |
| Total votes | 1,257,966 | 100.0 | ||
Independents
Declared
- Neil J. Gillespie[12]
Declined
- John Morgan, lawyer and founder of Morgan & Morgan[92]
Third parties
General election
Formerly a swing state, Florida has shifted increasingly to the Republican Party in recent elections.[95][96] A Democratic candidate has not won a Senate seat in Florida since 2012.[95][96][97]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[98] | Solid R | April 13, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ[99] | Likely R | July 14, 2026 |
| The Economist[100][d] | Likely R | August 19, 2026 |
| FiftyPlusOne[101] | Likely R | August 3, 2026 |
| Fox News[102] | Solid R | July 21, 2026 |
| Inside Elections[103] | Solid R | April 23, 2026 |
| Race To The WH[104] | Likely R | August 18, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[105] | Likely R | May 19, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[106] | Safe R | August 19, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin[107] | Likely R | August 11, 2026 |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of July 29, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ashley Moody (R) | $11,259,074 | $2,776,253 | $8,482,821 |
| Angie Nixon (D) | $974,845 | $709,866 | $264,978 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[34] | |||
Post-primary endorsements
Angie Nixon (D)
- U.S. senators
- Bernie Sanders, Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)[108]
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Ashley Moody (R) |
Angie Nixon (D) |
Other/ Undecided[e] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[109] | through July 17, 2026 | August 21, 2026 | 50.6% | 40.9% | 9.5% | Moody +9.7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ashley Moody (R) |
Angie Nixon (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of North Florida[110] | July 8–17, 2026 | 848 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 42% | 2%[f] | 6% |
| Stetson University[111] | March 15 – April 13, 2026 | 848 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 51% | 38% | – | 11% |
| Emerson College[112] | March 29–31, 2026 | 1,125 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 36% | – | 16% |
| University of North Florida[113] | February 21 – March 2, 2026 | 786 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 38% | 2% | 15% |
Hypothetical polling
Ashley Moody vs. Alexander Vindman
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ashley Moody (R) |
Alexander Vindman (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of North Florida[110] | July 8–17, 2026 | 848 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 40% | 3%[g] | 7% |
| Change Research (D)[91][A] | July 9–11, 2026 | 1,348 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 37% | 4%[h] | 14% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[114][B] | June 3–7, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 40% | – | 13% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[115][C] | May 18–21, 2026 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 43% | – | 12% |
| Change Research (D)[116][117][A] | May 13–16, 2026 | 1,593 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 45% | 47% | 1%[i] | 7% |
| 2,070 (RV) | 46% | 41% | 3%[j] | 10% | |||
| Cherry Communications (R)[118][D] | May 1–9, 2026 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 40% | – | 12% |
| Stetson University[111] | March 15 – April 13, 2026 | 848 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
| Echelon Insights (R)[119][E] | April 3–9, 2026 | 406 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| MDW (D)[120][F] | March 27 – April 3, 2026 | 1,834 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 43% | 42% | – | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[122][C] | April 2–3, 2026 | 574 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
| Emerson College[112] | March 29–31, 2026 | 1,125 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 38% | – | 16% |
| University of North Florida[113] | February 21 – March 2, 2026 | 786 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | 2% | 15% |
Ashley Moody vs. Jennifer Jenkins
Ashley Moody vs. Hector Mujica
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ashley Moody (R) |
Hector Mujica (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[112] | March 29–31, 2026 | 1,125 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 38% | – | 17% |
Notes
- Marco Rubio, the three-term senator of Florida, was nominated by President Donald Trump to be the United States Secretary of State in his second cabinet. On January 20, 2025, he was confirmed by the Senate as Secretary of State and subsequently resigned his seat. Governor Ron DeSantis chose Ashley Moody to replace him.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Would not vote" with 2%
- The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Someone else" and "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- "Would not Vote" with 4%
- "Would not vote" with 1%
- "Would not vote" with 3%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Someone else", "Wouldn't vote", and "Refusal" with 1%
Partisan clients
- Poll commissioned by Freedom Project USA
- Polls sponsored by Associated Industries of Florida, which supports Moody
- Poll commissioned by Vindman's campaign
- Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce
- Poll sponsored by Plymouth Union Public Advocacy