Green Wave (Malaysia)

In 2018, the long-ruling Barisan Nasional was defeated electorally and the broadly reformist Pakatan Harapan coalition entered government on an anti-corruption platform.

In 2020, Mahathir Mohamad resigned as prime minister. The decision contributed to the 2020–2022 Malaysian political crisis and the formation of the Perikatan Nasional coalition, consisting of the Malaysian United Indigenous Party (BERSATU) and Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) among others, which formed the federal government alongside the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO)-led Barisan Nasional.^[4]

All three parties share Malay nationalist tendencies, which heavily influences the Malaysian Islamic Party alongside Islamism.^[5][6]

The Malaysian Islamic Party's electoral base is largely centered around Peninsular Malaysia's rural and conservative northern and eastern coasts, known as the Malay-Muslim heartland,^[7] particularly in the states of Kelantan and Terengganu. The party is led by Abdul Hadi Awang, a member of the ulama (religious scholar) faction, who has been its president since 2002. Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor, a member of the party's professional faction, is the election director of Perikatan Nasional as well as Chief Minister of Kedah.^[8]

The United Malays National Organisation is seen and often presents itself as the champion of Ketuanan Melayu, translated as Malay overlordship or supremacy, as well as the protector of Malay interests.^[9] It was the predominant party in Malaysian politics from independence up until 2018, and leads the Barisan Nasional coalition.^[10][11] Following Najib Razak's imprisonment for corruption, the party has been led by Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

The Malaysian United Indigenous Party was founded by former UMNO members who left the party over Najib's leadership and the 1MDB scandal. Initially led by Mahathir, it was a member of Pakatan Harapan. Following its exit from that coalition, the party was led by Muhyiddin Yassin, who formed Perikatan Nasional and became prime minister.^[12]

Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor and Abdul Hadi Awang, two important figures responsible for the Green Wave in Malaysian politics (particularly in Peninsula Malaysia).

Some critics argued that green wave is a tactical move meant to put fear in the hearts of people, especially non-Malays, by bringing up images of radical fundamentalism.^[17] Perikatan Nasional information chief Azmin Ali has claim that the reason PN did well in the 2022 general election was because their policies benefit the people of every race when they were the ruling coalition from 2020 until 2021.^[18] Lim Guan Eng, former Secretary-General and current Chairman of Democratic Action Party (DAP), said that the green wave is very dangerous and that they will demolish Indian temples and forbid people from going to concerts. He subsequently denied the claims by saying that his statement was misinterpreted and twisted by the media.^[19][20] Many opposition politicians, including PAS Secretary-General Takiyuddin Hassan condemned his statements and said that decisive action should be taken by the authorities and Home Ministry of Malaysia on Lim.^[21] After BN victory in Pelangai seat, BN Pahang's chief, Wan Rosdy Wan Ismail said that the "green wave" was blocked by BN and the community didn't support the PN coalition despite they played up various sentiments, perceptions and slander like 3R issues (religion, race and royalty).^[22]

Three elements, race, religion, and royalty — collectively referred to as the 3Rs — have dominated political and social discourse within Malaysia.^[23] Rural and conservative Malay voters in particular are more likely to vote for Malay-based parties as they are seen to better represent Malay interests, fight for the supremacy of Islam, and support royal institutions. Conversely, many perceive Pakatan Harapan as insufficiently protective of Malay rights.^[24][25]

In a pre-election survey conducted by Merdeka Center in conjunction with Sisters in Islam in 2022, religion was primary identity marker for Muslim youth at 45%, followed by nationality at 28%. Less than a third believed that Islam and politics, as well as Islam and matters of public life should be kept separate. 68% of respondents agreed that Sharia should have equal standing to common law or replace it entirely, while 75% agreed that Hudud should be implemented.^[26]

The 2022 general election was the first to be held following the constitutional amendment that lowered the voting age from 21 to 18 was passed in 2019, resulting in 6 million new voters. Of the 21.1 million eligible voters in total, 1.4 million were aged between 18 and 20.^[27] Social media is generally understood to have played a considerable role in the election, being employed by political parties as a method of courting first-time voters,^[28] with analysts crediting its effective employment by Perikatan Nasional, particularly TikTok, for their success.^[29] Political scientist Ooi Kok Him noted that Perikatan Nasional relied on content ostensibly coming from third-parties more so than other parties.^[28]

According to a study conducted by Iman Research, the 2022 election was dominated by Malay-Muslim issues, with political rhetoric shifting further rightwards and becoming more identitarian. It also found that Malay nationalist rhetoric amplified through social media was especially effective in aiding Perikatan Nasional capture first-time voters.^[30]

A post-election study by Malaysiakini found that young voters aged between 18 and 39 were more supportive of Perikatan Nasional at 37%, than Pakatan Harapan at 35%, and Barisan Nasional at 23%, and attributed the Green Wave to youth votes.^[31]

A study released in 2024 conducted on Malay youth aged 10-35 from Peninsular Malaysia showed that multiculturalism was considered acceptable as long as Islam and Malay rights remained unaffected.^[32] Individuals who identified themselves as supporters of the Malaysian Islamic Party and Barisan Nasional generally believed that the country must be led by a Malay Muslim.^[33]

UMNO leader Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was ranked the least popular Malay leader in a poll conducted by Merdeka Center entering the 2022 election,^[34] by which time UMNO had already failed to win a majority of the Malay electorate in four of the five preceding election.^[10] The party's image was also marred by corruption allegations, which Perikatan Nasional exploited by running on a "clean" and "religious" campaign.^[35]

Its poor performance with the Malay electorate continued in the 2022 election, where the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional won just 32% of the Malay vote, whereas Perikatan Nasional won 52%.^[36] The ratio shifted further in favour of Perikatan Nasional in the 2023 state elections despite Barisan Nasional entering into an alliance with Pakatan Harapan, where it secured just 29% of the Malay vote. UMNO itself won just 19 of the 108 seats it contested.^[37]

UMNO's poor performance in 2023 in particular were driven by a combination of dissatisfaction with party leader Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and disapproval of co-operation with the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party, which is seen as anti-Malay, as part of the wider "unity government" formed following the 2022 election.^[38][39]

The Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, comprising the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), Malaysian United Indigenous Party (BERSATU) and Malaysian People's Movement Party (GERAKAN), won 74 seats in the Malaysian lower house, becoming the second largest coalition in Dewan Rakyat after PH. PAS had the most number of elected members in the Dewan Rakyat with 43 members, while BERSATU had 31 members. Most of the seats that had been captured by PN have more than 70% registered Malay voters.

In Perlis, the election saw the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition failed to win a single seat. The PN coalition won 14 of the 15 seats, achieving a supermajority and formed the first ever non-BN government in the state's history. PH won the remaining seat and became the sole opposition.

In Pahang, the election resulted in a hung assembly with PN winning 17 seats, the same number of seats won by the incumbent BN coalition. It ended BN's dominance in the state. PH won the remaining 8 seats.

In Perak, the election resulted in a hung assembly. Although PN won 26 seats, it did not have enough seats to form a majority. PH won 24 seats and the incumbent BN coalition won the remaining 9 seats.

Perikatan Nasional (PN) grabbed 22 seats during the Selangor legislative assembly election, becoming the main opposition in the assembly. Meanwhile in Terengganu, Perikatan Nasional (PN) swept all 32 seats in the state legislative assembly.

The Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition won 146 seats out of 245 seats that were contested in 2023 state elections.

In Selangor, the Barisan Nasional (BN)–Pakatan Harapan (PH) electoral pact won the election by capturing 34 of 56 seats, with PH winning 32 of those seats and BN winning 2 seats. The Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition won the remaining 22 seats to become the main opposition in the state assembly.

In Kelantan, the governing PN coalition led by Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) won 43 of 45 seats in the election, achieving a supermajority and continuing PAS's dominance in the state since 1990. The BN–PH electoral pact won the remaining two seats, with BN and PH each winning one seat and becoming the main opposition in the state assembly.

In Terengganu, the PN coalition led by PAS won all 32 seats, recording the first clean sweep in the state's history since 1978. BN lost all the 10 seats it had prior to the election. This left the state assembly with no elected opposition representatives.

In Negeri Sembilan, the BN–PH electoral pact won 31 of 36 seats, achieving a supermajority, with PH winning 17 of those seats and BN winning 14 seats in the election. The PN coalition won the remaining 5 seats and became the main opposition in the state assembly.

In Kedah. the governing PN coalition led by PAS won 33 of 36 seats, achieving a supermajority. PH won the remaining three seats for the BN–PH electoral pact. This meant for the first time in the state's history, BN would have no representation in the state assembly. PH took BN's place as the state's main opposition following the election.

In Penang, the BN–PH electoral pact won 29 of 40 seats in the election, with PH winning 27 of those seats and BN winning 2 seats. The PN coalition won the remaining 11 Malay-majority seats to become the main opposition in the state assembly.