Opinion polling for the 2026 Senedd election

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In the run-up to the 2026 Senedd election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Senedd election, held on 6 May 2021, to the next election, to be held on 7 May 2026.

It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the first election following current reforms to the voting system, which increases the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopts a party-list voting system, reduces the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shortens its term from five years to four.[1][2] However the 23 October 2025 Caerphilly by-election where 33,689 votes were cast used first-past-the-post voting.

Opinion polling

Polling using the 2026 electoral system

For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituencies used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation.[3][4]

Labour led in most polls until early 2025, when opinion polls began to show Plaid Cymru and Reform as each leading or tied.

LOESS curve of polling conducted
  Sample size below 1,000.[a]
More information Dates conducted, Pollster ...
Dates
conducted		 Pollster Client Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dems Reform Others Lead
2 March - 27 Apr More in Common N/A 2,159 16% 12% 30% 9% 4% 27% 2% 3
17–23 Apr 2026 Survation S4C/Aberystwyth University 834 15% 10% 28% 10% 4% 30% 4% 2
18–22 Apr 2026 Find Out Now Plaid Cymru 2,012 10% 13% 29% 11% 6% 27% 4% 2
6–15 Apr 2026 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University 2,387 13% 8% 29% 10% 6% 29% 4% Tie
31 Mar – 13 Apr 2026 JL Partners The Telegraph 2,050 16% 12% 29% 9% 6% 25% 4% 4
30 Jan – 10 Apr 2026 More in Common N/A 2,519 21% 11% 25% 10% 7% 25% 2% Tie
2–8 Apr 2026 Ipsos N/A 747 15% 12% 30% 10% 6% 25% 2% 5
2–22 Mar 2026 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 459 17% 9% 30% 11% 6% 27% 2% 3
9–18 Mar 2026 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University 2,978 13% 7% 33% 12% 5% 27% 4% 6
15 Feb – 3 Mar 2026 More in Common N/A 851 20% 10% 26% 10% 7% 26% 1% Tie
30 Jan – 10 Feb 2026 More in Common N/A 806 20% 13% 24% 5% 6% 31% 1% 7
19 Jan – 8 Feb 2026 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 486 20% 10% 29% 7% 5% 27% 1% 2
5–12 Jan 2026 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University 1,220 10% 10% 37% 13% 5% 23% 2% 14
16 Dec – 4 Jan 2026 FindOutNow N/A 1,503 12% 12% 30% 9% 7% 29% 2% 1
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2025 YouGov Cardiff University 1,891 10% 10% 33% 9% 6% 30% 2% 3
10–30 Nov 2025 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 505 21% 12% 26% 9% 3% 27% 1% 1
23 Oct 2025 2025 Caerphilly by-election, Plaid Cymru gain from Labour
22 Sep – 12 Oct 2025 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 533 23% 11% 22% 9% 4% 30% 2% 7
4–10 Sep 2025 YouGov Barn Cymru / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University 1,232 14% 11% 30% 6% 6% 29% 4% 1
18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 400 27% 13% 21% 6% 5% 25% 2% 2
18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025 More in Common Sky News 883 23% 10% 26% 4% 7% 28% 2% 2
5–16 Jun 2025 FindOutNow N/A 2,101 18% 11% 27% 7% 7% 29% 1% 2
23–30 Apr 2025 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University 1,265 18% 13% 30% 5% 7% 25% 2% 5
10 Mar – 3 Apr 2025 Survation N/A 809 27% 15% 24% 5% 5% 24% 1% 3
3–23 Mar 2025 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 1,000 27% 16% 24% 5% 4% 23% 1% 3
25–29 Nov 2024 YouGov[6] Barn Cymru 1,121 23% 19% 24% 6% 5% 23% 1% 1
4–24 Nov 2024 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 500 27% 18% 17% 6% 6% 24% 2% 3
18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 Survation[s 1] Reform UK 2,006 29% 18% 20% 7% 7% 19% 1% 9
24 Jul – 6 Aug 2024 Eluned Morgan is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales[7]
5–18 Jul 2024 Welsh Election Study N/A 2,565 25% 16% 24% 6% 6% 16%
8%
AWA on 7%
Other on 1%
 1
4 Jul 2024 2024 United Kingdom general election
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,072 27% 18% 23% 5% 6% 18% 3% 4
5–7 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 960 36% 22% 18% 6% 6% 11%
2%
AWA on 2%
Other on 0%
 14
30 May – 3 Jun 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,066 30% 19% 23% 6% 6% 12% 4% 7
18–19 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 900 37% 20% 20% 5% 3% 10%
5%
AWA on 5%
Other on 0%
 17
8 May 2024 The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election (regional)[8] – 36.2% 25.1% 20.7% 4.4% 4.3% 1.1% 8.2% 11.1
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election (constituency)[8] – 39.9% 26.1% 20.3% 1.6% 4.9% 1.6% 5.6% 13.8
Close

Past opinion polling

The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

Regional vote

  Sample size below 1,000.[a]
More information Dates conducted, Pollster ...
Dates
conducted		 Pollster Client Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dems AWA UKIP Reform Others Lead
24 Jun 2024 The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 840 33% 18% 19% 6% 7% 5% – 12% 1% 14
23–24 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 878 32% 16% 18% 9% 7% 6% – 11% 1% 14
16–20 Mar 2024 Vaughan Gething is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales[9]
18 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 874 29% 16% 25% 4% 8% 7% – 10% 1% 4
24–26 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 34% 19% 21% 6% 6% 6% – 7% 1% 13
10–11 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,086 28% 20% 24% 7% 8% 4% – 7% 1% 4
12–13 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 32% 21% 18% 9% 6% 5% – 7% 1% 11
14–15 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 959 31% 21% 24% 4% 5% 7% – 8% 0% 10
16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,172 35% 21% 18% 6% 12% 2% – 5% 1% 14
1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,051 34% 16% 20% 6% 6% 9% 1% 6% 2% 14
13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,068 31% 19% 22% 6% 10% – – 10% 3% 9
14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 33% 20% 19% 6% 10% – – 6% 4% 13
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 30% 22% 20% 6% 9% – – 8% 4% 8
16 Jun 2023 Rhun ap Iorwerth is elected leader of Plaid Cymru
12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,064 36% 16% 18% 7% 7% 5% 1% 7% 1% 18
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,058 30% 21% 24% 4% 10% – – 8% 4% 6
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,251 32% 22% 23% 7% 8% – – 7% 2% 9
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,081 39% 18% 20% 5% 5% 6% – 6% 2% 19
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,042 38% 16% 23% 5% 2% 8% 2% 4%
2%
Gwlad 1%
Other 1%
 15
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,014 37% 18% 21% 5% 5% 7% 2% 4% 1% 16
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,020 31% 21% 24% 6% 5% 6% 2% 6%
2%
Gwlad 1%
Other 1%
 7
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,086 34% 23% 20% 4% 6% 6% 1% 3%
2%
Gwlad 1%
Other 1%
 11
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov ITV Wales 1,009 35% 22% 19% 7% 3% 6% 2% 5% 1% 13
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Wales 1,057 33% 26% 19% 5% 4% 6% 4% 2% 1% 7
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election[8] – 36.2% 25.1% 20.7% 4.4% 4.3% 3.7% 1.6% 1.1% 2.9% 11.1
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By section
More information Date conducted, Pollster ...
Date
conducted		 Pollster Client Subsection Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dems Reform Lead
November 2024 Beaufort Research[10] Nation.Cymru South West Wales and the Valleys 1000 (500) 28 13 19 4 6 27 1
Cardiff and South East Wales 34 23 10 6 8 16 11
North and Mid Wales 21 18 24 8 4 24 Tie
Male voters 28 20 10 6 7 27 1
Female voters 27 15 26 6 5 20 1
Aged 16-34 37 9 21 9 7 17 16
Aged 34-54 32 15 21 4 8 19 11
Aged over 55 21 22 15 6 5 29 7
ABC1 28 23 18 7 6 15 5
C2DE 26 11 17 5 6 34 8
Welsh speakers 24 16 31 5 6 17 7
Non-Welsh speakers 29 18 13 6 6 26 3
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Constituency vote

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes.
  Sample size below 1,000.[a]
More information Dates conducted, Pollster ...
Dates
conducted		 Pollster Client Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems AWA Green Reform Other Lead
8 May 2024 The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 840 37% 21% 22% 4% 3% 3% 10% 0% 15
23–24 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 878 36% 21% 21% 3% 3% 3% 11% 1% 15
16–20 Mar 2024 Vaughan Gething is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales[9]
18 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 874 34% 21% 19% 6% 4% 3% 13% 0% 13
24–26 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 39% 25% 18% 3% 3% 4% 9% 1% 14
10–11 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,086 41% 22% 17% 7% 3% 3% 7% 0% 19
12–13 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 40% 23% 18% 3% 3% 4% 7% 0% 17
14–15 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 959 37% 27% 18% 4% 5% 3% 6% 0% 10
16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,172 39% 27% 18% 5% 1% 6% 3% 1% 12
1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,051 41% 18% 19% 6% – 4% 8% 7% 22
13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,068 37% 21% 20% 6% – 3% 9% 4% 16
14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 42% 22% 16% 6% – 3% 7% 3% 20
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 36% 22% 19% 7% – 3% 10% 3% 14
16 Jun 2023 Rhun ap Iorwerth is elected leader of Plaid Cymru
12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,064 40% 18% 17% 7% – 5% 8% 4% 22
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,058 38% 23% 20% 7% – 3% 7% 2% 15
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,251 41% 21% 20% 5% – 4% 8% 2% 20
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,081 43% 18% 20% 4% – 4% 9% 1% 23
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,042 44% 17% 20% 6% – 3% 7% 4% 24
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,014 40% 20% 22% 6% – 3% 5% 4% 18
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,020 37% 24% 21% 6% – 5% 5% 3% 13
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,086 38% 24% 21% 6% – 3% 5% 4% 14
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov ITV Wales 1,009 40% 23% 17% 4% – 5% 7% 4% 17
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Wales 1,057 37% 27% 19% 5% – 4% 5% 5% 10
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election[8] – 39.9% 26.1% 20.3% 4.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 5.6% 13.8
Close

Seat projections

Ahead of the election, various modelling efforts have produced seat projections for the next Senedd election. Below are selected projections and the result of the previous election for comparison.

49 seats needed for a majority.

More information Organisation, Last date ...
Seat projections by poll aggregators
Organisation Last date Lab Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dems Reform Others Majority
YouGov 6 Apr – 15 Apr 2026 12 3 36 7 1 37 0 Hung
(Reform −12)
More in Common 30 Jan – 10 Apr 2026 24 7 30 4 3 28 0 Hung
(Plaid Cymru −19)
Beaufort Research 2 – 22 Mar 2026 15 6 37 6 2 30 0 Hung
(Plaid Cymru −12)
YouGov 9 – 18 Mar 2026 12 1 43 10 0 30 0 Hung
(Plaid Cymru −6)
Beaufort Research 19 Jan – 8 Feb 2026 23 7 35 1 1 29 0 Hung
(Plaid Cymru −14)
YouGov 5 – 12 Jan 2026 8 6 45 11 3 23 0 Hung
(Plaid Cymru −4)
YouGov 28 Nov – 10 Dec 2025 8 6 39 5 3 35 0 Hung
(Plaid Cymru −10)
Cavendish Cymru/NationCymru–Beaufort 21 October 2025 24 7 25 2 1 37 0 Hung
(Reform −12)
2021 election 6 May 2021 30 16 13 0 1 0 0 Hung (Labour −1, minority government)
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See also

Notes

  1. [a]
    The British Polling Council states that a sample size of at least 1,000 is the "established norm" for any poll in Great Britain. However, there is no "minimum" acceptable sample size.[5]
  1. [1]
    Survation asked voters to give their preferences under the current Additional Member System. The figure shown in this table is the proportional (regional) vote, as that is the closest equivalent to the new party list system.

References

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