Opinion polling for the 2026 New Zealand general election
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Eight polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the 2026 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Radio New Zealand (RNZ) conducted by Reid Research,[1] along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). Curia Market Research is no longer a member of the Research Association of New Zealand, following complaints and the resignation from RANZ by its principal, David Farrar.[2] The sample size, margin of error, and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
The current parliament was elected on 14 October 2023. The election is scheduled to be held on 7 November 2026.
Party vote
The parties shown in this section are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), Green (GRN), ACT, New Zealand First (NZF), Te Pāti Māori (TPM), and The Opportunity Party (TOP). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this section.
Graphical summary
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Table of polls
| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | TOP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 May – 21 Jun 2026 | Roy Morgan | 891 | 31 | 25.5 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 5.5 |
| 13–17 Jun 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 29 | 32 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 1.5[b] | 3 |
| 5–11 Jun 2026 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,038 | 29 | 35 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 2 | – | – | 6 |
| 1–10 Jun 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,021 | 29 | 34 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 2.6 | 3.3 | – | 5 |
| 4–8 Jun 2026 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 30.1 | 32.2 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 0.8[c] | 2.1 |
| 28 May 2026 | Budget 2026 is delivered. | ||||||||||
| 27 Apr – 24 May 2026 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 30.5 | 26.5 | 12.5 | 10 | 11 | 2.5 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 May 2026 | Te Pāti Māori splits as MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi announces new Te Tai Tokerau Party.[3] | ||||||||||
| 1–10 May 2026 | Talbot Mills | 29 | 36 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 2 | – | – | 7 | |
| 3–7 May 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30 | 31.9 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 3.3[d] | 1.9 |
| 30 Mar – 26 Apr 2026 | Roy Morgan | 887 | 25.5 | 34 | 11 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 3 | 4 | 0.5 | 8.5 |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Prime Minister and National leader Christopher Luxon survives a party leadership vote.[4] | ||||||||||
| 16 Apr 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,082 | 29 | 36 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 2.3 | – | 7 |
| 11–15 Apr 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,010 | 30 | 37 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 1.2[e] | 7 |
| 1–2 Apr 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29.8 | 33.4 | 7.8 | 9 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 3.6 |
| 23 Feb – 22 Mar 2026 | Roy Morgan | 872 | 26.5 | 34 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 0.5 | 7.5 |
| 12–20 Mar 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 30.8 | 35.6 | 10.1 | 7 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 2 | 0.7 | 4.8 |
| 2–12 Mar 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,059 | 32 | 35 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 1.7 | 2.4 | – | 3 |
| 1–3 Mar 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 28.4 | 34.4 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 4.3[f] | 6 |
| 2 Mar 2026 | The Strait of Hormuz is closed as part of the Iran war, causing an incoming fuel crisis affecting New Zealand.[5] | ||||||||||
| 27 Jan – 22 Feb 2026 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 31 | 30 | 14.5 | 8 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 1 |
| 6–12 Feb 2026 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,039 | 30 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 2 | – | 3 | 7 |
| 7–11 Feb 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,003 | 34 | 32 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1.7[g] | 2 |
| 1–3 Feb 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.3 | 34.1 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 4.2[h] | 2.8 |
| 6–26 Jan 2026 | Roy Morgan | 881 | 34.5 | 30.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 9 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 4 |
| 16–26 Jan 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,087 | 31 | 35 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 3 | – | – | 4 |
| 15–22 Jan 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 31.9 | 35 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 3.1 |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announces that the election will be held on 7 November 2026.[6] | ||||||||||
| 14–18 Jan 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.5 | 34.4 | 7.7 | 7 | 11.9 | 3 | 0.7 | 3.8[i] | 2.9 |
| 25 Nov – 21 Dec 2025 | Roy Morgan | 859 | 33 | 32.5 | 12 | 7.5 | 10 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.5 |
| 5–10 Dec 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,031 | 30 | 38 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 2 | – | 4 | 8 |
| 5 Dec 2025 | Mariameno Kapa-Kingi reinstated as a member of Te Pāti Māori by the High Court.[7] | ||||||||||
| 3–7 Dec 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30 | 31.6 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 6[j] | 1.6 |
| 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,007 | 36 | 35 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2.4[k] | 1 |
| 27 Oct – 23 Nov 2025 | Roy Morgan | 829 | 33 | 28 | 14.5 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 Nov 2025 | Qiulae Wong becomes leader of The Opportunity Party.[8] | ||||||||||
| 10 Nov 2025 | Tākuta Ferris and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi are expelled from Te Pāti Māori.[9] | ||||||||||
| 1–10 Nov 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1000 | 33 | 38 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 2.4 | – | – | 5 |
| 2–6 Nov 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30.2 | 33.3 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 5.1[l] | 3.1 |
| 29 Sep – 26 Oct 2025 | Roy Morgan | 857 | 32 | 30.5 | 12 | 8 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 1.5 |
| 1–10 Oct 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,097 | 29 | 35 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 4 | – | – | 6 |
| 4–8 Oct 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,014 | 34 | 32 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2.4[m] | 2 |
| 3–8 Oct 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,050 | 31 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 3 | – | 2 | 3 |
| 1–5 Oct 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29.6 | 31.2 | 12 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 4[n] | 1.6 |
| 25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 31.5 | 28.5 | 13.5 | 9 | 8 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 |
| 4–12 Sep 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 32.5 | 34.3 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 1–10 Sep 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,000 | 31 | 35 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 4 | – | – | 4 |
| 6 Sep 2025 | Oriini Kaipara of Te Pāti Māori wins the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election. | ||||||||||
| 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.1 | 33.8 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 2.2[o] | 0.7 |
| 28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025 | Roy Morgan | 873 | 29 | 34 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 7 | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 5 |
| 1–10 Aug 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,000 | 32 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 2.8 | – | 2 |
| 2–6 Aug 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 34 | 33 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1[p] | 1 |
| 3–5 Aug 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.8 | 33.6 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.6[q] | 1.8 |
| 30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 | Roy Morgan | 832 | 31 | 31 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 1 | 2 | Tie |
| 1–10 Jul 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,090 | 32 | 35 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 3.8 | – | – | 3 |
| 2–6 Jul 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.9 | 31.6 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.5[r] | 2.3 |
| 26 May – 22 Jun 2025 | Roy Morgan | 812 | 32 | 28.5 | 11 | 11.5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3.5 |
| 12–15 Jun 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 32 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 2 | – | 4 | 2 |
| 7–9 Jun 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.5 | 34.8 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 3.2[s] | 1.3 |
| 31 May 2025 | David Seymour of the ACT party becomes Deputy Prime Minister, replacing Winston Peters of NZ First. | ||||||||||
| 23–30 May 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,008 | 30.7 | 33.2 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.1[t] | 2.5 |
| 24–28 May 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 34 | 29 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 3.9[u] | 5 |
| 28 Apr – 25 May 2025 | Roy Morgan | 799 | 31.5 | 29 | 11.5 | 12 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 2 | 2.5 |
| 22 May 2025 | Budget 2025 is delivered. | ||||||||||
| 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.6 | 33.2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 1.8[v] | 1.4 |
| 24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025 | Roy Morgan | 829 | 31 | 28.5 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 36 | 32 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.3[w] | 4 |
| 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.5 | 29.8 | 11 | 10 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.4[x] | 3.7 |
| 21–27 Mar 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 32.9 | 32.3 | 10 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 5 | 1.8 | – | 0.6 |
| 24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025 | Roy Morgan | 888 | 32.5 | 27.5 | 14.5 | 7.5 | 7 | 5.5 | 4 | 1.5 | 5 |
| 1–10 Mar 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,003 | 31 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 6.1 | 4.4 | – | – | 3 |
| 2–4 Mar 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.6 | 34.1 | 10 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 2.5[y] | 0.5 |
| 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 | Roy Morgan | 888 | 30.5 | 29 | 15.5 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 3–7 Feb 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 34 | 33 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 3.6[z] | 1 |
| 2–4 Feb 2025 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 31.9 | 31.3 | 13.2 | 10 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.2[aa] | 0.6 |
| 7–27 Jan 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,049 | 33 | 34 | 12 | 9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | – | – | 1 |
| 2–26 Jan 2025 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 32.5 | 28.5 | 11.5 | 9 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 4 |
| 9–13 Jan 2025 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 29.6 | 30.9 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 3.7[ab] | 1.3 |
| 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 31 | 26 | 13.5 | 13 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 5 |
| 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,006 | 37 | 29 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 1.5 | 2[ac] | 8 |
| 1–3 Dec 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 34.2 | 26.9 | 8.3 | 13 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 2.2[ad] | 7.3 |
| 22–28 Nov 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 31 | 32 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 7 | – | – | 1 | |
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 34 | 31 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 4 | – | – | 3 |
| 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 | Roy Morgan | 866 | 28.5 | 28 | 13.5 | 9 | 6.5 | 9 | 3.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 10–19 Nov 2024 | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against the Treaty Principles Bill. | ||||||||||
| 6–10 Nov 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 38.8 | 31.5 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 7.3 |
| 1–10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | 34 | 33 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3.3 | – | – | 1 | |
| 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 | Roy Morgan | 883 | 31 | 29 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 5–9 Oct 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 37 | 29 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.3[ae] | 8 |
| 3–7 Oct 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 34.9 | 30.3 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 4.6 |
| 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 | Roy Morgan | 902 | 37.5 | 23 | 14 | 10 | 7.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 14.5 |
| 8–10 Sep 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 39 | 26.7 | 11 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 5 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 12.3 |
| 1–10 Sep 2024 | Talbot Mills | 37 | 32 | 10 | 8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | – | – | 5 | |
| 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 | Roy Morgan | 898 | 36 | 26.5 | 13 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 9.5 |
| 10–14 Aug 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 38 | 30 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 2.8[af] | 8 |
| 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 32.5 | 24 | 14 | 11 | 6.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 8.5 |
| 4–8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.6 | 25.9 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.8[ag] | 11.7 |
| 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 35 | 27.5 | 14.5 | 9 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 7.5 |
| 15–19 Jun 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 38 | 29 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.1[ah] | 9 |
| 4–6 Jun 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 35.4 | 29.4 | 12.7 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 2.4[ai] | 6 |
| 30 May 2024 | Budget 2024 is delivered. | ||||||||||
| 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 | Roy Morgan | 925 | 33.5 | 30 | 14 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| 1–10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | 35 | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3 | |
| 5–7 May 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.3 | 30 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 3.1[aj] | 7.3 |
| 30 Apr 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 34 | 33 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 4 | – | – | 1 | |
| 20–24 Apr 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 36 | 30 | 14 | 7 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 3.7[ak] | 6 |
| 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 | Roy Morgan | 934 | 36.5 | 24.5 | 13 | 11 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 2–4 Apr 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.1 | 25.7 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 3[al] | 11.4 |
| 26 Feb – 24 Mar 2024 | Roy Morgan | 931 | 38 | 23 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 15 |
| 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 38 | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | – | – | – | 10 |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[10] | ||||||||||
| 3–5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.4 | 25.3 | 11.3 | 10 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 4[am] | 12.1 |
| 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 | Roy Morgan | 935 | 35.5 | 21.5 | 15.5 | 12 | 7.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 14 |
| 10–14 Feb 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 38 | 28 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.6[an] | 10 |
| 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | 38 | 29 | 12 | 7 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | – | 9 | |
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 39.6 | 27.9 | 9 | 13.7 | 5 | 2.3 | – | 2.5 | 11.7 |
| 30 Jan 2024 | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024.[11] | ||||||||||
| 8–28 Jan 2024 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 38 | 22 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 16 |
| 8–10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 41 | 28.4 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | – | – | 12.6 |
| 27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 36 | 22 | 15.5 | 9.5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 3–5 Dec 2023 | Curia | 36.5 | 28.8 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5 | – | 4.6 | 7.7 | |
| 3 Dec 2023 | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party.[12] | ||||||||||
| 27 Nov 2023 | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | ||||||||||
| 30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023 | Roy Morgan | 920 | 37.5 | 21 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5[ao] | 16.5 |
| 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37 | 28.3 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.7[ap] | 8.7 |
| 14 Oct 2023 | 2023 election result | N/A | 38.08 | 26.92 | 11.61 | 8.64 | 6.09 | 3.08 | 2.22 | 3.36 | 11.16 |
| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | TOP | Others | Lead |
Preferred prime minister
Graphical summary
Preferred prime minister polling table
| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | Luxon | Hipkins | Swarbrick | Seymour | Peters | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13–17 Jun 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 18 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 5–11 Jun 2026 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,038 | 37 | 44 | – | – | – | 7 | |||
| 1–10 Jun 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,021 | 20 | 21 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 1 | |||
| 4–8 Jun 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 18.8 | 17.1 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 12.8 | 1.7 | |||
| 1–10 May 2026 | Talbot Mills | 20 | 23 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 3 | ||||
| 3–7 May 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 21.5 | 19 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 11.6 | 2.5 | |||
| 16 Apr 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,082 | 20 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 3 | |||
| 11–15 Apr 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,010 | 16 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 3 | |||
| 1–2 Apr 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.5 | 21.7 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 12.1 | 1.2 | |||
| 12–20 Mar 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 17.3 | 20.7 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 13.1 | 3.4 | |||
| 2–12 Mar 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,059 | 22 | 26 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 4 | |||
| 1–3 Mar 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 21 | 22.7 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 10.4 | 1.7 | |||
| 6–12 Feb 2026 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,039 | 34 | 46 | – | – | – | 12 | |||
| 7–11 Feb 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,003 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 10 | Tie | |||
| 1–3 Feb 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 22 | 18 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 12.5 | 4 | |||
| 15–22 Jan 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 19.4 | 21.1 | 6 | 6.7 | 12.6 | 0.7 | |||
| 14–18 Jan 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 19.5 | 18 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 1.5 | |||
| 5–10 Dec 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,031 | 39 | 45 | – | – | – | 6 | |||
| 3–7 Dec 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 19.7 | 17.8 | 7.6 | 6 | 8.5 | 1.9 | |||
| 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,007 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 1–10 Nov 2025 | Talbot Mills | 22 | 26 | – | – | – | 4 | ||||
| 2–6 Nov 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.8 | 20.6 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 0.2 | |||
| 1–10 Oct 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,097 | 21 | 24 | – | – | – | 3 | |||
| 4–8 Oct 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,014 | 21 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 3–8 Oct 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,050 | 36 | 45 | – | – | – | 9 | |||
| 1–5 Oct 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 19.8 | 20.9 | 6.3 | 4 | 9.9 | 1.1 | |||
| 4–12 Sep 2025 | RNZ-Reid Research | 1,000 | 19.6 | 23 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 3.4 | |||
| 1–10 Sep 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,000 | 20 | 25 | – | – | – | 5 | |||
| 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 21.7 | 17.7 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 10.9 | 4 | |||
| 1–10 Aug 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,000 | 21 | 26 | – | – | – | 5 | |||
| 2–6 Aug 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 20 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3–5 Aug 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 8 | 6.2 | 8.2 | Tie | |||
| 1–10 Jul 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,090 | 24 | 24 | – | – | – | Tie | |||
| 2–6 Jul 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 19.7 | 19.6 | 7 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 0.1 | |||
| 12–15 Jun 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 37 | 43 | – | – | – | 6 | |||
| 7–9 Jun 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.3 | 18.5 | 5.6 | 6 | 8 | 1.8 | |||
| 31 May 2025 | David Seymour of the ACT party becomes Deputy Prime Minister, replacing Winston Peters of NZ First. | ||||||||||
| 23–30 May 2025 | RNZ-Reid Research | 1,008 | 18.8 | 23.2 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 4.4 | |||
| 24–28 May 2025 | 1 News-Verian | 1,002 | 23 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | |||
| 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 24.5 | 20 | 5 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.5 | |||
| 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 23 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 21.9 | 18.9 | 4.2 | 8 | 12.8 | 3 | |||
| 21–27 Mar 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 21.9 | 20.9 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 1 | |||
| 1–10 Mar 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,003 | 21 | 24 | – | – | – | 3 | |||
| 2–4 Mar 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.3 | 20.7 | 4.8 | 5 | 8.6 | 0.4 | |||
| 3–7 Feb 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 22 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |||
| 2–4 Feb 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.7 | 17.6 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 8 | 3.1 | |||
| 7–27 Jan 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,049 | 24 | 25 | – | – | – | 1 | |||
| 9–13 Jan 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 24.5 | 15.3 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 9.2 | |||
| 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,006 | 24 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9 | |||
| 1–3 Dec 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 27.1 | 19.9 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 7.2 | |||
| 22–28 Nov 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 22.1 | 22.7 | – | – | – | 0.6 | ||||
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 41 | 42 | – | – | – | 1 | |||
| 6–10 Nov 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 26.5 | 15.5 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 11 | |||
| 1–10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | 25 | 23 | – | – | – | 2 | ||||
| 5–9 Oct 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 10 | |||
| 3–7 Oct 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 27.7 | 16.9 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 10.8 | |||
| 8–10 Sep 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 32.7 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 20.1 | |||
| 1–10 Sep 2024 | Talbot Mills | 26 | 22 | – | – | – | 4 | ||||
| 10–14 Aug 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 28 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 10 | |||
| 4–8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.5 | 18.7 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 15.8 | |||
| 15–19 Jun 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 23 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | |||
| 4–6 Jun 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 25.4 | 20.2 | 8.6 | 5 | 3.8 | 5.2 | |||
| 1–10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | 25 | 25 | – | – | – | Tie | ||||
| 20–24 Apr 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | |||
| 10 Mar 2024 | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[10] | ||||||||||
| 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 24 | 23 | – | – | – | 1 | |||
| 10–14 Feb 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | |||
| 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | 27 | 23 | – | – | – | 4 | ||||
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 10 | |||
| 8–10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 31 | 13 | – | – | – | 18 | |||
| 3–5 Dec 2023 | Curia | 30 | 22 | – | – | – | 8 | ||||
| 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33 | 18 | 6.3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | |||
Leadership approval rating
| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxon | Hipkins | Seymour | Peters | |||||||||||
| Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | |||
| 4–8 Jun 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | -19 | -7 | -18 | -5 | ||||||||
| 1–3 Mar 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 27% | 46% | -19 | 36% | 41% | -5 | – | 35% | 43% | -8 | ||
| 1–3 Feb 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29% | 45% | -16 | 31% | 39% | -8 | 25% | 53% | -28 | 34% | 40% | -7 |
| 14–18 Jan 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 28% | 44% | -17 | 33% | 37% | -4 | 23% | 47% | -24 | 35% | 41% | -6 |
| 5–10 Dec 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,031 | 34% | 45% | –11 | 39% | 33% | +7 | 28% | 44% | –15 | 36% | 36% | = |
| 3–7 Dec 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | –13 | –7 | –24 | –2 | ||||||||
| 2–6 Nov 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | –10 | –2 | –11 | +2 | ||||||||
| 4–8 Oct 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,014 | 38% | 52% | –14 | 42% | 41% | +1 | – | – | ||||
| 3–8 Oct 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,050 | 27% | 51% | –24 | = | –27 | –6 | ||||||
| 4–12 Sep 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | –15.2 | +3 | – | – | ||||||||
| 12–15 Jun 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 31% | 49% | –18 | 36% | 32% | +4 | –12 | –11 | ||||
| 7–9 Jun 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | –8.6 | +3.2 | –17.6 | +1 | ||||||||
| 23–30 May 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,008 | 35.7% | 45.5% | –9.8 | 39.1 | 34% | +5.1 | – | – | ||||
| 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 40% | 47% | –7 | 49% | 33% | +16 | – | – | ||||
| 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | –6 | +2 | –18 | –4 | ||||||||
| 2–4 Mar 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | –10 | +4 | –28 | –1 | ||||||||
| 21–27 Mar 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | –3.9 | +12.3 | – | – | ||||||||
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 29% | 46% | –16 | 34% | 34% | = | 23% | 47% | –24 | 25% | 46% | –22 |
| 8–10 Sep 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 41% | 34% | +7 | 31% | 41% | –10 | –14 | –9 | ||||
| 15–19 Jun 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 40% | 45% | –5 | 47% | 34% | +13 | – | – | ||||
| 4–6 Jun 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | –5 | +3 | –18 | –19 | ||||||||
| 5–7 May 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | +8 | -1 | –7 | –5 | ||||||||
| 2–4 Apr 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | -7 | -6 | –11 | –18 | ||||||||
| 3–5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39% | 44% | -5 | 40% | 38 | +2 | –8 | –12 | ||||
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 44% | 33 | +11 | 40% | 35 | +4 | –8 | –22 | ||||
| 8–10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 42% | 37 | +5 | 37% | 34 | +3 | –14 | –24 | ||||
| 3–5 Dec 2023 | Curia | 39% | 40% | -1 | 42% | 33 | +9 | –19 | –36 | |||||
Government approval rating
| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | Right direction | Wrong direction | Do not know | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 May – 21 Jun 2026 | Roy Morgan | 891 | 37 | 49 | 14 | 12 |
| 1–10 Jun 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,021 | 41 | 49 | 10 | 8 |
| 27 Apr – 24 May 2026 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 36.5 | 52 | 11.5 | 15.5 |
| 30 Mar – 26 Apr 2026 | Roy Morgan | 887 | 31.5 | 56 | 12.5 | 24.5 |
| 23 Feb – 22 Mar 2026 | Roy Morgan | 872 | 34 | 56 | 10 | 22 |
| 12–20 Mar 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 32.3 | 50 | 17.7 | 17.7 |
| 2–12 Mar 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,059 | 46 | 44 | 10 | 2 |
| 27 Jan – 22 Feb 2026 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 36.5 | 52 | 11.5 | 15.5 |
| 6–26 Jan 2026 | Roy Morgan | 881 | 36.5 | 51.6 | 12 | 15.1 |
| 15–22 Jan 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 36.3 | 46.6 | 17 | 10.3 |
| 14–18 Jan 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 32.6 | 49 | 18.4 | 16.4 |
| 24 Nov – 21 Dec 2025 | Roy Morgan | 859 | 37 | 52 | 11 | 15 |
| 5–10 Dec 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,031 | 33 | 52 | 15 | 19 |
| 25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 39 | 49.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| 4–12 Sep 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 34 | 48.9 | 17.1 | 14.9 |
| 28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025 | Roy Morgan | 873 | 37 | 53.5 | 9.5 | 16.5 |
| 30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 | Roy Morgan | 832 | 37 | 53.5 | 9.5 | 16.5 |
| 26 May – 22 Jun 2025 | Roy Morgan | 812 | 41 | 46 | 13 | 5 |
| 12–15 Jun 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 35 | 49 | 16 | 14 |
| 23–30 May 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,008 | 37.8 | 46.6 | 15.6 | 8.8 |
| 28 Apr – 25 May 2025 | Roy Morgan | 799 | 35 | 54.5 | 10.5 | 19.5 |
| 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.3 | 46 | 20.7 | 12.7 |
| 24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025 | Roy Morgan | 829 | 40.5 | 43 | 13.5 | 2.5 |
| 21–27 Mar 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 43.5 | 40.6 | 15.8 | 2.9 |
| 24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025 | Roy Morgan | 888 | 32.5 | 52.5 | 15 | 20 |
| 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 | Roy Morgan | 888 | 39 | 49 | 12 | 10 |
| 3–7 Feb 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 39 | 50 | 11 | 11 |
| 2–4 Feb 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.2 | 50 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| 2–26 Jan 2025 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 37.5 | 48.5 | 14 | 11 |
| 9–13 Jan 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39 | 53 | 12 | 14 |
| 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 35 | 52.5 | 12.5 | 17.5 |
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 35 | 48 | 17 | 13 |
| 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 | Roy Morgan | 866 | 46.5 | 42.5 | 11 | 4 |
| 1–10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | 40 | 46 | 14 | 6 | |
| 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 | Roy Morgan | 883 | 36.5 | 50.5 | 13 | 14 |
| 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 | Roy Morgan | 902 | 39 | 46.5 | 14.5 | 7.5 |
| 1–10 Sep 2024 | Talbot Mills | 42 | 47 | 11 | 5 | |
| 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 | Roy Morgan | 898 | 43 | 45.5 | 11.5 | 2.5 |
| 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 38 | 48 | 14 | 10 |
| 4–8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 47.3 | 33.9 | 18.8 | 13.4 |
| 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 35.5 | 52.5 | 12 | 17 |
| 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 | Roy Morgan | 925 | 43 | 47 | 10 | 4 |
| 1–10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | 38 | 52 | 10 | 14 | |
| 5–7 May 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 45.1 | 42.6 | 12.3 | 2.5 |
| 25 Mar–21 Apr 2024 | Roy Morgan | 934 | 34.5 | 49 | 16.5 | 14.5 |
| 26 Feb–24 Mar 2024 | Roy Morgan | 931 | 35 | 54 | 11 | 19 |
| 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 40 | 48 | 12 | 8 |
| 3–5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.5 | 43.4 | 17 | 3.9 |
| 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 | Roy Morgan | 935 | 41.5 | 43.5 | 15 | 2 |
| 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | 43 | 41 | 16 | 2 | |
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.7 | 35.2 | 25.1 | 4.5 |
| 8–28 Jan 2024 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 42 | 41 | 17 | 1 |
| 27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 38 | 45 | 17 | 7 |
| 30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023 | Roy Morgan | 920 | 36.5 | 46 | 17.5 | 9.5 |
| 9–12 Nov 2023 | Guardian Essential | 1,193 | 29 | 48 | 23 | 19 |
| 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 49 | 22 | 20 |
Forecasts
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). However, projections that show the National Party winning fewer than 44 total seats (44 being the number of electorate seats currently held by National) assume that National will lose at least enough electorates to avoid an overhang. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[13]
| Pollster Date |
Seats in parliament[i] | Likely government formation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | TOP | Total | ||
| Roy Morgan[14] 25 May – 21 Jun 2026 |
37 | 31 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[15] 13–17 Jun 2026 |
38 | 41 | 17 | 8 | 14 | 4** | 0 | 122 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy[16] 5–11 Jun 2026 |
36 | 44 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 4* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| Talbot Mills[17] 1–10 Jun 2026 |
36 | 42 | 16 | 8 | 15 | 4* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[18] 4–8 Jun 2026 |
38 | 40 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[19] 27 Apr – 24 May 2026 |
37 | 33 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 5** | 7 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Talbot Mills[20] 1–10 May 2026 |
36 | 45 | 11 | 9 | 17 | 5*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[21] 3–7 May 2026 |
39 | 41 | 12 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[22] 30 Mar – 26 Apr 2026 |
32 | 43 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 5* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Talbot Mills[23] 16 Apr 2026 |
36 | 44 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 5*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| 1 News–Verian[24] 11–15 Apr 2026 |
37 | 46 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 5*** | 0 | 123 | Labour–Greens–Māori (65) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[25] 1–2 Apr 2026 |
37 | 42 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 5** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[26] 23 Feb – 22 Mar 2026 |
33 | 43 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 5* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[27] 12–20 Mar 2026 |
38 | 44 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 5* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills[28] 2–12 Mar 2026 |
39 | 43 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 5*** | 0 | 123 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[29] 1–3 Mar 2026 |
36 | 44 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[30] 27 Jan – 22 Feb 2026 |
39 | 38 | 18 | 10 | 12 | 4* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| The Post/ 6–12 Feb 2026 |
38 | 46 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 4** | 0 | 122 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| 1 News–Verian[32] 7–11 Feb 2026 |
42 | 39 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 4** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[33] 1–3 Feb 2026 |
39 | 43 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| Roy Morgan[34] 6–26 Jan 2026 |
43 | 38 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[35] 15–22 Jan 2026 |
40 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[36] 14–18 Jan 2026 |
39 | 43 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[37] 25 Nov – 21 Dec 2025 |
41 | 40 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 4* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| The Post/ 5–10 Dec 2025 |
38 | 48 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 4* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[39] 29 Nov–3 Dec 2025 |
44 | 43 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 4*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan[40] 27 Oct – 23 Nov 2025 |
42 | 36 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 4* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills[41] 1–10 Nov 2025 |
40 | 47 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 4* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[42] 2–6 Nov 2025 |
39 | 42 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[43] 29 Sep – 26 Oct 2025 |
41 | 39 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 6*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills[44] 1–10 Oct 2025 |
35 | 43 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[45] 4–8 Oct 2025 |
42 | 40 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 6*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| The Post/ 3–8 Oct 2025 |
38 | 42 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[47] 1–5 Oct 2025 |
38 | 40 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[48] 25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025 |
39 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| RNZ–Reid Research[49] 4–12 Sep 2025 |
40 | 42 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills[50] 1–10 Sep 2025 |
39 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[51] 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025 |
42 | 42 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[52] 28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025 |
36 | 42 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6*** | 0 | 123 | Labour–Greens–Māori (65) |
| Talbot Mills[53] 1–10 Aug 2025 |
39 | 42 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[54] 2–6 Aug 2025 |
42 | 40 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[55] 3–5 Aug 2025 |
40 | 43 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 6** | 0 | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Roy Morgan[56] 30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 |
38 | 39 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills[57] 1–10 Jul 2025 |
39 | 42 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[58] 2–6 Jul 2025 |
42 | 39 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[59] 26 May – 22 Jun 2025 |
40 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[60] 7–9 Jun 2025 |
42 | 44 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[61] 23–30 May 2025 |
38 | 42 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| 1 News–Verian[62] 24–28 May 2025 |
43 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[63] 28 Apr – 25 May 2025 |
40 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[64] 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 |
42 | 41 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[65] 24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025 |
39 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[66] 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 |
44 | 40 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[67] 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 |
42 | 37 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[68] 21–27 Mar 2025 |
41 | 40 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[69] 24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025 |
41 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| Talbot Mills[70] 1–10 Mar 2025 |
39 | 43 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[71] 2–4 Mar 2025 |
42 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Roy Morgan[72] 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 |
38 | 36 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 6** | 0 | 122 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[73] 3–7 Feb 2025 |
43 | 42 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[74] 2–4 Feb 2025 |
39 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills[75] 7–27 Jan 2025 |
40 | 42 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| Roy Morgan[76] 2–26 Jan 2025 |
40 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[77] 9–13 Jan 2025 |
38 | 39 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[78] 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 |
39 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 1 News–Verian[79] 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 |
46 | 36 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[80] 1–3 Dec 2024 |
44 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT (61) |
| Labour–Talbot Mills[81] 22–28 Nov 2024 |
39 | 40 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| The Post/ 26–27 Nov 2024 |
42 | 39 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[83] 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 |
37 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[84] 6–10 Nov 2024 |
48 | 39 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills[85] 1–10 Nov 2024 |
42 | 41 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[86] 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 |
39 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[87] 5–9 Oct 2024 |
47 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[88] 3–7 Oct 2024 |
44 | 38 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[89] 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 |
47 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[90] 8–10 Sep 2024 |
48 | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills[91] 1–10 Sep 2024 |
46 | 39 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[92] 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 |
45 | 33 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| 1 News–Verian[93] 10–14 Aug 2024 |
49 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[94] 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 |
41 | 31 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[95] 4–8 Jul 2024 |
47 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan[96] 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 |
44 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[97] 15–19 Jun 2024 |
47 | 36 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[98] 4–6 Jun 2024 |
44 | 36 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[99] 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 |
42 | 38 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 0 | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[100] 5–7 May 2024 |
47 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Talbot Mills[101] 30 Apr 2024 |
42 | 41 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[102] 20–24 Apr 2024 |
48 | 40 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Roy Morgan[103] 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 |
45 | 31 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[104] 2–4 Apr 2024 |
47 | 32 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[105] 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 |
45 | 27 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Talbot Mills[106] 1–10 Feb 2024 |
47 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[107] 1–7 Feb 2024 |
49 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 6*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT (66) |
| Roy Morgan[108] 8–28 Jan 2024 |
49 | 28 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Roy Morgan[109] Dec 2023 poll |
46 | 28 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 8** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Curia[110] 3–5 Dec 2023 poll |
46 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT-NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[111] 1–6 Nov 2023 poll |
46 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 2023 election result[112] 14 Oct 2023 |
48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
- * indicates an overhang seat
- Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
See also
Notes
- These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
- NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.3%
Vision NZ 0.3%
New Conservatives Party 0.2% - New Conservatives Party 0.8%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.5%
Vision NZ 0.3% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.7%
New Conservatives Party 0.8%
Vision NZ 0.2% - Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.4%
NewZeal 0.4%
Women's Rights Party 0.3%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.2%
New Conservatives Party 0.2%
Vision NZ 0%
Animal Justice Party 0.1% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.2%
New Conservatives Party 0.1%
Vision NZ 0.4% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.6%
New Conservatives Party 0.3%
Vision NZ 0.3% - Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.4%
Women's Rights Party 0.2%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
New Conservatives Party 0.1%
NewZeal 0.1%
Vision NZ 0%
Animal Justice Party 0% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.5%
New Conservatives Party 1.2%
Vision NZ 0.4% - Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.5%
Women's Rights Party 0.5%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
New Conservatives Party 0.3%
NewZeal 0.2%
Vision NZ 0.2%
Animal Justice Party 0.1% - Freedoms New Zealand 2.3%
New Zealand Loyal 1%
Vision NZ 0.6% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.8%
Vision NZ 0.6%
New Conservatives Party 0.3% - NewZeal 0.4%
Women's Rights Party 0.4%
New Conservatives Party 0.2%
Animal Justice Party 0.1%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.1%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.1% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1%
Vision NZ 0.4% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1%
New Conservatives Party 0.7%
Vision NZ 0.6% - NewZeal 1.3% NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1% Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.6% New Conservatives Party 0.4% Vision NZ 0.2% Animal Justice Party 0.1%
- NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
Vision NZ 0.4% - Freedoms New Zealand 0.5%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
Vision NZ 0.2%
Animal Justice Party 0.2% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.6%
Vision NZ 0.4% - Freedoms New Zealand 1%
Women's Rights Party 1%
Vision NZ 0.5%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.3%
Animal Justice Party 0.2%
New Conservatives Party 0.2%
NewZeal 0.2%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.1%
New Nation Party 0.1% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.7%
Vision NZ 0.6% - Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.5%
New Conservatives Party 0.4%
Freedoms New Zealand 0.3%
New Nation Party 0.3%
Vision NZ 0.3%
Women's Rights Party 0.2%
NewZeal 0.1% - NewZeal 0.6%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.4%
Animal Justice Party 0.3%
New Conservatives Party 0.2%
New Nation Party 0.2%
Freedoms New Zealand 0.2%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.2%
Vision NZ 0.2% - NewZeal 0.7%
New Conservatives Party 0.5%
Animal Justice Party 0.3%
DemocracyNZ 0.2%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.2%
Democratic Alliance 0.1%
Women's Rights Party 0.1%
New Nation Party 0.1%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.1%
Freedoms New Zealand 0.1%
Others 0.4% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.0%
Others 0.8% - New Nation Party 0.6%
Animal Justice Party 0.5%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.2%
Vision NZ 0.2%
New Zealand Loyal 0.2%
Freedoms New Zealand 0.1%
New Conservatives Party 0.1%
NewZeal 0.1%
Women's Rights Party 0.1% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.3%
Vision NZ 0.5%
New Conservatives Party 0.1%
Others 0.5% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1%
Others 2.0% - New Zealand Loyal 0.9%
NewZeal 0.6%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.5%
New Nation Party 0.4%
Freedoms New Zealand 0.3%
New Conservatives Party 0.3%
Animal Justice Party 0.2%
DemocracyNZ 0.2%
Vision NZ 0.1%
Others 0.2% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.5%
DemocracyNZ 0.3%
Vision NZ 0.2%
New Conservatives Party 0.2%
Others 0.8% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.3%
Vision NZ 0.8%
DemocracyNZ 0.4%
Others 1.5% - NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
New Zealand Loyal 0.4%
Animal Justice Party 0.3%
New Conservatives Party 0.3%
Women's Rights Party 0.3%
NewZeal 0.3%
DemocracyNZ 0.3%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.1%
Vision NZ 0.1%
Others 0.1% - New Conservatives Party 0.5%
Others 2% - New Conservatives Party 0.7%
Vision NZ 0.3%