2014 United States Senate election in Iowa
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Harkin did not run for reelection to a sixth term in office.[1]
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November 4, 2014
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   Ernst: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Braley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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U.S. Representative Bruce Braley was unopposed for the Democratic nomination; the Republicans nominated State Senator Joni Ernst in a June 3 primary election.[2] Douglas Butzier, who was the Libertarian nominee, died on October 14 in a single engine plane crash near Key West, Iowa. He was the pilot and the only person aboard the plane.[3][4][5] He still appeared on the ballot, alongside Independents Bob Quast, Ruth Smith and Rick Stewart. Ernst defeated Braley in the general election. This was the first open Senate seat in Iowa since 1974. Ernst was the first Republican to win this seat since Roger Jepsen in 1978. Joni Ernst's inauguration marked the first time since 1985 where Republicans held both United States Senate seats from Iowa.
Democratic primary
Bruce Braley ultimately faced no opposition in his primary campaign and became the Democratic nominee on June 3, 2014.[6]
Candidates
Declared
- Bruce Braley, U.S. Representative from Iowa's 1st congressional district[7]
Withdrew
- Bob Quast, businessman (running as an independent)[8]
Declined
- Chet Culver, former Governor of Iowa[9]
- Jeff Danielson, state senator[10]
- Tom Harkin, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative from Iowa's 2nd congressional district (ran for re-election)[11]
- Kevin McCarthy, Minority Leader of the Iowa House of Representatives[12]
- Christie Vilsack, former First Lady of Iowa and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2012[13]
- Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of Agriculture and former Governor of Iowa[14]
Endorsements
Bruce Braley
Federal politicians
- Leonard Boswell, former U.S. Representative[15]
- Bill Clinton, 42nd President of the United States[16]
- Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State, 2008 presidential candidate, then-potential 2016 presidential candidate[17]
- Tom Harkin, incumbent U.S. Senator[18]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative[15]
Statewide politicians
- Chet Culver, former Governor of Iowa[9]
- Michael Fitzgerald, Iowa State Treasurer[18]
- Tom Miller, Iowa Attorney General[18]
State legislators
- Ako Abdul-Samad, state representative[19]
- Marti Anderson, state representative[19]
- Daryl Beall, state senator[19]
- Bruce Bearinger, state representative[19]
- Deborah Berry, state representative[19]
- Dennis Black, state senator[19]
- Joe Bolkcom, state senator[19]
- Tod Bowman, state senator[19]
- Chris Brase, state senator[19]
- Dennis Cohoon, state representative[19]
- Thomas G. Courtney, state senator[19]
- Jeff Danielson, state senator[19]
- David Dawson, state representative[19]
- Dick Dearden, state senator[19]
- Bill Dotzler, state senator[19]
- Nancy Dunkel, state representative[19]
- Robert Dvorsky, state senator[19]
- John Forbes, state representative[19]
- Ruth Ann Gaines, state representative[19]
- Mary Gaskill, state representative[19]
- Michael Gronstal, Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate and Chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee[19]
- Chris Hall, state representative[19]
- Curt Hanson, state representative[19]
- Rita Hart, state senator[19]
- Jack Hatch, state senator[19]
- Lisa Heddens, state representative[19]
- Rob Hogg, state senator[19]
- Wally Horn, state senator[19]
- Bruce Hunter, state representative[19]
- Charles Isenhart, state representative[19]
- David Jacoby, state representative[19]
- Pam Jochum, President of the Iowa Senate[19]
- Anesa Kajtazovic, state representative[19]
- Jerry Kearns, state representative[19]
- Dan Kelley, state representative[19]
- Bob Kressig, state representative[19]
- Vicki Lensing, state representative[19]
- Daniel Lundby, state representative[19]
- Jim Lykam, state representative[19]
- Mary Mascher, state representative[19]
- Liz Mathis, state senator[19]
- Matt McCoy, state senator[19]
- Helen Miller, state representative[19]
- Dan Muhlbauer, state representative[19]
- Jo Oldson, state representative[19]
- Rick Olson, state representative[19]
- Tyler Olson, state representative[19]
- Scott Ourth, state representative[19]
- Janet Petersen, state senator[19]
- Todd Prichard, state representative[19]
- Herman Quirmbach, state senator[19]
- Amanda Ragan, state senator[19]
- Joe Riding, state representative[19]
- Patti Ruff, state representative[19]
- Kirsten Running-Marquardt, state representative[19]
- Brian Schoenjahn, state senator[19]
- Joe Seng, state senator[19]
- Mark Smith, state representative[19]
- Steve Sodders, President Pro Tempore of the Iowa Senate[19]
- Art Staed, state representative[19]
- Sharon S. Steckman, state representative[19]
- Sally Stutsman, state representative[19]
- Rich Taylor, state senator[19]
- Todd Taylor, state representative[19]
- Phyllis Thede, state representative[19]
- Roger Thomas, state representative[19]
- Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, state representative[19]
- Mary Jo Wilhelm, state senator[19]
- Cindy Winckler, state representative[19]
- Mary Wolfe, state representative[19]
- Frank Wood, state representative[19]
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brad Anderson |
Bruce Braley |
Kevin McCarthy |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[20] | January 29, 2013 | ? | ? | 3.83% | 49.73% | 3.83% | 42.62% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bruce Braley | 62,623 | 99.2% | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 504 | 0.8% | |
| Total votes | 63,127 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
The Republican primary was held on June 3, 2014. If no candidate won more than 35% of the vote, the nominee would have been chosen at a statewide convention. It would have been only the second time in 50 years that a convention picked a nominee and the first time since 2002, when then-State Senator Steve King won a convention held in Iowa's 5th congressional district to decide the Republican nominee for Congress. Having the nominee chosen by a convention led to fears that the increasingly powerful Ron Paul faction of the state party, led by Party Chairman A. J. Spiker, could have nominated an unelectable candidate.[22][23]
The convention was scheduled to be held on June 14 but was then moved to July 12. Republican leaders, including Governor Terry Branstad and U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley, as well as four of the candidates for the nomination, criticized the move. Candidates Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst, Matthew Whitaker and David Young signed a letter to the Republican Party of Iowa asking them to move the convention date back, saying that "Essentially gifting [Bruce] Braley an additional 30 days to campaign in a vacuum, while reducing our nominee's time to raise funds and campaign as the general election candidate by an entire month – only serves to strengthen Braley's viability". Spiker responded that the move was necessary to accommodate the 27-day period that the Iowa Secretary of State's office requires to certify the results of the primary.[24] Spiker reiterated his position in September 2013, rejecting calls for a vote by the central committee to move the convention date. He said that nominating a candidate before the primary had been certified would break state law, "which outlines that a ballot vacancy does not exist until the canvass is completed and certified."[25]
Secretary of State Matt Schultz was highly critical of Spiker, saying that "no political party should use the excuse of the final date of the statewide canvass to determine the date of its special nominating convention. Furthermore, to state that it is necessary to hold a special nominating convention after the conclusion of the state canvass is not only misleading, it is false."[26] Following efforts by members of the central committee to call a special meeting to move the date back to June, Spiker agreed and a meeting was held on September 23.[27] The central committee voted 16–1 to move the convention date back to June 14.[28] Statewide Republican leaders and activists and members of the National Republican Senatorial Committee believe that the real reason for the attempt to delay the convention was to give the Ron Paul faction time to organize an insurgent effort to push through a candidate they support, which could have even been Spiker himself or State Party Co-chair David Fischer.[23] The infighting has been traced back to the failure of the NRSC and allies of Governor Branstad and Senator Grassley to recruit a "top-tier" candidate for the race.[23]
Ernst received widespread attention for a campaign ad she released in March 2014 where she employed a tongue-in-cheek comparison between her experience castrating pigs and her ability to cut "pork" in Congress.[29][30] Many found the ad to be humorous[31][32] and it was spoofed by late-night comedians including Jimmy Fallon and Stephen Colbert,[33][34] while some found it to be in bad taste.[35][36] Before the ad aired, Ernst had struggled in fundraising,[37][38] and two polls of the Republican primary taken in February 2014 had shown her in second place, several points behind opponent Mark Jacobs.[39][40] After it aired, a Suffolk University poll in early April showed her with a narrow lead and a Loras College poll showed her essentially tied with Jacobs.[36][41][42][43] By May, she was being described by the media as the "strong front-runner".[44]
In May 2014, Roll Call reported that the Republican primary campaign had become a proxy for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, with Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio supporting Ernst, Rick Perry endorsing Whitaker and Rick Santorum backing Clovis.[45] Jacobs, who had no such high-profile endorsements, ran as the "outsider".[46]
Ultimately, Ernst won the primary with 56% of the vote, negating the need for a convention.
Candidates
Declared
- Sam Clovis, radio host[47]
- Joni Ernst, state senator[48]
- Mark Jacobs, former CEO of Reliant Energy[49]
- Scott Schaben, businessman[50]
- Matthew Whitaker, former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa and nominee for Treasurer of Iowa in 2002[51]
Withdrew
- Paul Lunde, attorney and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 1988 and 1992[52]
- David Young, former Chief of Staff to U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (ran for U.S. House)[53]
Declined
- Terry Branstad, Governor of Iowa[54]
- Bob Brownell, Polk County Supervisor[55]
- Steve Deace, radio talk show host[56]
- Bill Dix, Minority Leader of the Iowa Senate[57]
- David Fischer, Co-chair of the Republican Party of Iowa[58]
- Steve Gaer, Mayor of West Des Moines[59]
- Drew Ivers, Finance Chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa[60]
- Steve King, U.S. Representative from Iowa's 4th congressional district[61]
- Ron Langston, businessman and former director of the Minority Business Development Agency[59]
- Tom Latham, U.S. Representative[62]
- Bill Northey, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture[63]
- Kevin O'Brien, McDonald's store owner and operator[59]
- Kim Reynolds, Lieutenant Governor of Iowa[64]
- Rod Roberts, Director of the Iowa Department of Inspections and Appeals and candidate for governor in 2010[65]
- Matt Schultz, Iowa Secretary of State[66]
- A. J. Spiker, Chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa[67]
- Matt Strawn, former chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa[55]
- Bob Vander Plaats, social conservative activist, candidate for governor in 2002, 2006 and 2010 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006[68]
- David A. Vaudt, chairman of the Governmental Accounting Standards Board and former state auditor of Iowa[48]
- Stuart Weinstein, orthopaedic surgeon, President of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons[59]
- Brad Zaun, state senator[69]
Endorsements
Sam Clovis
Individuals
- Terry Amann, Pastor at Walnut Creek Church[70]
- Dorie Day, widow of Colonel Bud Day[71]
- Steve Deace, radio talk show host[72]
- Louie Gohmert, U.S. Representative (TX-01)[73]
- Rick Santorum, former U.S. Representative and former U.S. Senator (PA) and candidate for president in 2012[74]
- Phyllis Schlafly, conservative activist and founder of the Eagle Forum[75]
- Bob Vander Plaats, social conservative activist, candidate for governor in 2002, 2006 and 2010 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006[76]
Organizations
Joni Ernst
National figures
- George H. W. Bush, 41st President of the United States[79][80]
- Deb Fischer, U.S. Senator (NE)[81]
- Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor, 2008 Republican vice-presidential candidate[82]
- Michael Reagan, son of Ronald Reagan[83]
- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and 2012 Republican presidential nominee[84]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator (FL)[85]
- Kay Orr, former governor of Nebraska[81]
Statewide politicians
State legislators
- Rich Anderson, former state representative[87]
- Robert Bacon, state representative[88]
- Clel Baudler, state representative[89]
- Nancy Boettger, state senator[90]
- Mark Brandenburg, state representative[84]
- Mark Costello, state representative[91]
- Cecil Dolecheck, state representative[92]
- Dean Fisher, state representative[93]
- Shawn Hamerlinck, former state senator[94]
- Megan Hess, state representative[95]
- Hubert Houser, state senator[96]
- David Johnson, state senator[97]
- Tim Kapucian, state senator[98]
- Renee Schulte, former state representative[99]
- Amy Sinclair, state senator[100]
- Rob Taylor, state representative[101]
- Dan Zumbach, state senator[102]
Local officials
- Chad Airhart, Dallas County Recorder[103]
- Jon McAvoy, Adel City Councilman[104]
- Isaiah McGee, Waukee City Councilman[105]
- Carol Robertson, Mills County Auditor[106]
- Renee Twedt, Story County Treasurer[107]
Organizations
- Right Now Women PAC[108]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[109]
- ShePAC[110]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[111]
- VOICES of Conservative Women[112]
Mark Jacobs
Individuals
Matthew Whitaker
- Brad Banks, former Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback[114]
- Robert Brownell, Polk County Supervisor[115]
- Scott Cirksena, Mayor of Clive[115]
- Creighton Cox, Urbandale City Councilman[115]
- Greg Ganske, former U.S. Representative[115]
- Bill Gustoff, Republican State Central Committee Member[115]
- Chris Hagenow, state representative[115]
- Kevin Koester, state representative[115]
- Matt Mead, Governor of Wyoming[115]
- John Mickelson, West Des Moines City Councilman[115]
- Rick Perry, Governor of Texas and candidate for President in 2012[115]
- Jim Peters, Mayor of Adel[115]
- Ralph Watts, state representative[115]
- Jack Whitver, state senator[115]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sam Clovis |
Joni Ernst |
Mark Jacobs |
Paul Lunde |
Scott Schaben |
Matthew Whitaker |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill Research Consultants*[116] | February 12–13, 2014 | 300 | ± 4% | 6% | 11% | 22% | — | — | 8% | 3% | 50% |
| Public Policy Polling[117] | February 20–23, 2014 | 283 | ± 5.8% | 8% | 13% | 20% | 3% | 3% | 11% | — | 42% |
| Suffolk University[118] | April 3–8, 2014 | 224 | ± 6.55% | 6.7% | 25% | 22.77% | — | 1.34% | 4.02% | — | 40.18% |
| Loras College[119] | April 7–8, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 7.3% | 18.1% | 18.8% | — | 3.5% | 4% | — | 48.2% |
| Harper Polling^[120] | April 30 – May 1, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.38% | 14% | 33% | 23% | — | 1% | 3% | — | 26% |
| Loras College[121] | May 12–13, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 9.5% | 30.8% | 19.3% | — | 2.3% | 7.3% | — | 30.7% |
| Public Policy Polling[122] | May 15–19, 2014 | 303 | ± ? | 14% | 34% | 18% | 2% | 1% | 6% | — | 26% |
| Des Moines Register[123] | May 27–30, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 11% | 36% | 18% | — | 2% | 13% | — | 16% |
- ^ Internal poll for Joni Ernst campaign
- * Internal poll for Mark Jacobs campaign
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sam Clovis |
Joni Ernst |
Mark Jacobs |
Paul Lunde |
Scott Shaben |
Bob Vander Plaats |
Matthew Whitaker |
David Young |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Polling Company[124] | November 22–23, 2013 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 28% | 7% | 4% | 39% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Drew Ivers |
Steve King |
Tom Latham |
Bill Northey |
Kim Reynolds |
Matt Schultz |
Bob Vander Plaats |
David Vaudt |
Brad Zaun |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 326 | ± 5.4% | — | 41% | 22% | — | 10% | — | 9% | — | — | 17% |
| — | 42% | 23% | — | — | — | 19% | — | — | 15% | ||||
| — | 50% | 27% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23% | ||||
| Wenzel Strategies[126] | February 1–2, 2013 | 800 | ± 3.44% | — | 34.3% | 18.7% | 3.2% | 9.8% | 1.4% | 9.2% | 0.5% | — | 19.5% |
| — | 42.9% | 34.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.4% | ||||
| Harper Polling[20] | January 29, 2012 | 4.52% | 31.16% | 26.13% | — | — | — | 16.08% | — | 6.03% | 16.08% | ||
| — | 35.35% | 21.72% | — | — | — | 19.70% | — | 3.03% | 20.20% | ||||
| — | 46% | 29% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 25% |
Results
Ernst
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
Clovis
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Jacobs
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Joni Ernst | 88,692 | 56.12% | |
| Republican | Sam Clovis | 28,434 | 17.99% | |
| Republican | Mark Jacobs | 26,582 | 16.82% | |
| Republican | Matthew Whitaker | 11,909 | 7.54% | |
| Republican | Scott Schaben | 2,270 | 1.44% | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 144 | 0.09% | |
| Total votes | 158,031 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Endorsements
Bruce Braley (D)
Federal politicians
- Leonard Boswell, former U.S. Representative (IA)[15]
- Bill Clinton, 42nd President of the United States[16]
- Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State, 2008 presidential candidate, then-potential 2016 presidential candidate[17]
- Tom Harkin, incumbent U.S. Senator (IA)[18]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative (IA)[15]
Statewide politicians
- Chet Culver, former Governor of Iowa[9]
- Michael Fitzgerald, Iowa State Treasurer[18]
- Tom Miller, Iowa Attorney General[18]
Organizations
State legislators
- Ako Abdul-Samad, state representative[19]
- Marti Anderson, state representative[19]
- Daryl Beall, state senator[19]
- Bruce Bearinger, state representative[19]
- Deborah Berry, state representative[19]
- Dennis Black, state senator[19]
- Joe Bolkcom, state senator[19]
- Tod Bowman, state senator[19]
- Chris Brase, state senator[19]
- Dennis Cohoon, state representative[19]
- Thomas G. Courtney, state senator[19]
- Jeff Danielson, state senator[19]
- David Dawson, state representative[19]
- Dick Dearden, state senator[19]
- Bill Dotzler, state senator[19]
- Nancy Dunkel, state representative[19]
- Robert Dvorsky, state senator[19]
- John Forbes, state representative[19]
- Ruth Ann Gaines, state representative[19]
- Mary Gaskill, state representative[19]
- Michael Gronstal, Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate and Chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee[19]
- Chris Hall, state representative[19]
- Curtis Hanson, state representative[19]
- Rita Hart, state senator[19]
- Jack Hatch, state senator[19]
- Lisa Heddens, state representative[19]
- Rob Hogg, state senator[19]
- Wally Horn, state senator[19]
- Bruce Hunter, state representative[19]
- Charles Isenhart, state representative[19]
- David Jacoby, state representative[19]
- Pam Jochum, President of the Iowa Senate[19]
- Anesa Kajtazovic, state representative[19]
- Jerry Kearns, state representative[19]
- Dan Kelley, state representative[19]
- Bob Kressig, state representative[19]
- Vicki Lensing, state representative[19]
- Daniel Lundby, state representative[19]
- Jim Lykam, state representative[19]
- Mary Mascher, state representative[19]
- Liz Mathis, state senator[19]
- Matt McCoy, state senator[19]
- Helen Miller, state representative[19]
- Dan Muhlbauer, state representative[19]
- Jo Oldson, state representative[19]
- Rick Olson, state representative[19]
- Tyler Olson, state representative[19]
- Scott Ourth, state representative[19]
- Janet Petersen, state senator[19]
- Todd Prichard, state representative[19]
- Herman Quirmbach, state senator[19]
- Amanda Ragan, state senator[19]
- Joe Riding, state representative[19]
- Patti Ruff, state representative[19]
- Kirsten Running-Marquardt, state representative[19]
- Brian Schoenjahn, state senator[19]
- Joe Seng, state senator[19]
- Mark Smith, state representative[19]
- Steve Sodders, President Pro Tempore of the Iowa Senate[19]
- Art Staed, state representative[19]
- Sharon S. Steckman, state representative[19]
- Sally Stutsman, state representative[19]
- Rich Taylor, state senator[19]
- Todd Taylor, state representative[19]
- Phyllis Thede, state representative[19]
- Roger Thomas, state representative[19]
- Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, state representative[19]
- Mary Jo Wilhelm, state senator[19]
- Cindy Winckler, state representative[19]
- Mary Wolfe, state representative[19]
- Frank Wood, state representative[19]
Debates
On August 29, Ernst and Braley announced their agreement to hold three televised debates in Davenport, Des Moines, and Sioux City, the first debate on September 28, the second on October 11, and the last on October 16.[128]
- Complete video of debate, October 16, 2014
Fundraising
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Braley (D) | $9,918,362 | $10,069,945 | $707,302 |
| Joni Ernst (R) | $9,206,690 | $7,660,912 | $2,244,366 |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[129] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[130] | Lean R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[131] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[132] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bruce Braley (D) |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[133] | November 1–3, 2014 | 1,265 | ± 2.8% | 45% | 48% | 2%[134] | 5% |
| 46% | 49% | — | 5% | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[135] | October 28 – November 2, 2014 | 778 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | 2% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[136] | October 30–31, 2014 | 617 | ± ? | 47% | 48% | — | 5% |
| Selzer & Co/Des | October 28–31, 2014 | 701 | ± 3.7% | 44% | 51% | 1% | 4% |
| YouGov[138] | October 25–31, 2014 | 1,112 | ± 4.4% | 43% | 42% | 3% | 13% |
| Fox News[139] | October 28–30, 2014 | 911 | ± 3% | 44% | 45% | 4% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[140] | October 28–30, 2014 | 990 | ± 3% | 47% | 48% | 3% | 3% |
| CNN/ORC[141] | October 27–30, 2014 | 647 LV | ± 4% | 47% | 49% | — | 4% |
| 887 RV | ± 3.5% | 49% | 43% | — | 7% | ||
| Reuters/Ipsos[142] | October 23–29, 2014 | 1,129 | ± 3.3% | 45% | 45% | 4% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac[143] | October 22–27, 2014 | 817 | ± 3.4% | 45% | 49% | 2% | 5% |
| Loras College[144] | October 21–24, 2014 | 1,121 | ± 2.93% | 45% | 44% | 2% | 8% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[145] | October 16–23, 2014 | 2,322 | ± 3% | 44% | 44% | 1% | 11% |
| NBC News/Marist[146] | October 18–22, 2014 | 772 LV | ± 3.5% | 46% | 49% | 1% | 4% |
| 1,052 RV | ± 3% | 46% | 46% | 2% | 6% | ||
| Gravis Marketing[147] | October 20–21, 2014 | 964 | ± 3% | 43% | 49% | — | 8% |
| Monmouth University[148] | October 18–21, 2014 | 423 | ± 4.8% | 46% | 47% | 5% | 2% |
| Quinnipiac University[149] | October 15–21, 2014 | 964 | ± 3.2% | 46% | 48% | 3% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[150] | October 15–16, 2014 | 714 | ± ?% | 48% | 47% | — | 5% |
| Suffolk University[151] | October 11–14, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 43% | 47% | 2%[152] | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[153] | October 8–13, 2014 | 967 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 47% | 3% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[140] | October 8–10, 2014 | 957 | ± 3% | 45% | 48% | 1% | 5% |
| Selzer & Co/Des | October 3–8, 2014 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 47% | 3% | 4% |
| Morey Group[155] | October 4–7, 2014 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 38% | 2% | 21% |
| Magellan[156] | October 3, 2014 | 1,299 | ± 2.8% | 41% | 50% | — | 9% |
| Loras College[157] | October 1–3, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 42% | 4% | 12% |
| NBC News/Marist[158] | September 27 – October 1, 2014 | 778 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 46% | 1% | 9% |
| 1,093 RV | ± 3% | 45% | 44% | 1% | 11% | ||
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[159] | September 25 – October 1, 2014 | 1,000 | ± 2.09% | 44% | 45% | 11% | |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[145] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 2,359 | ± 2% | 44% | 43% | 1% | 12% |
| Gravis Marketing[160] | September 29–30, 2014 | 522 | ± 4% | 41% | 50% | — | 10% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[161] | September 25–30, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.46% | 47% | 46% | — | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[162] | September 25–28, 2014 | 1,192 | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 4%[163] | 10% |
| 43% | 45% | — | 12% | ||||
| Harstad Research[164] | September 21–25, 2014 | 809 | ± ? | 42% | 42% | — | 16% |
| Selzer & Co/Des | September 21–24, 2014 | 546 | ± 4.2% | 38% | 44% | 6%[166] | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[140] | September 17–18, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 43% | 43% | 4% | 14% |
| Fox News[167] | September 14–16, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 41% | 41% | 6% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[168] | September 10–15, 2014 | 1,167 | ± 2.9% | 44% | 50% | 1% | 4% |
| CNN/ORC[169] | September 8–10, 2014 | 608 LV | ± 4% | 49% | 48% | 1% | 2% |
| 904 RV | ± 3.5% | 50% | 42% | — | 7% | ||
| Loras College[170] | September 2–5, 2014 | 1,200 | ± 2.82% | 45% | 41% | — | 14% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[171] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,764 | ± 3% | 44% | 42% | 2% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[172] | August 28–30, 2014 | 816 | ± 3.4% | 43% | 45% | — | 12% |
| Suffolk[173] | August 23–26, 2014 | 500 | ± 4% | 40% | 40% | 5%[174] | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[175] | August 22–24, 2014 | 915 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 40% | 5%[176] | 14% |
| 42% | 42% | — | 16% | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports[140] | August 11–12, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 43% | 43% | 6% | 8% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[177] | July 5–24, 2014 | 2,056 | ± 2.7% | 45% | 46% | 2% | 8% |
| Gravis Marketing[178] | July 17–18, 2014 | 1,179 | ± 3% | 44% | 43% | — | 13% |
| NBC News/Marist[179] | July 7–13, 2014 | 1,599 | ± 2.5% | 43% | 43% | 1% | 14% |
| Quinnipiac University[180] | June 12–16, 2014 | 1,277 | ± 2.7% | 44% | 40% | — | 16% |
| Vox Populi Polling[181] | June 4–5, 2014 | 665 | ± 3.8% | 44% | 49% | — | 7% |
| Loras College[182] | June 4–5, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 48% | — | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports[140] | June 4–5, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 44% | 45% | 3% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[122] | May 15–19, 2014 | 914 | ± 3.3% | 45% | 39% | — | 16% |
| Hickman Analytics[183] | April 24–30, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 40% | — | 16% |
| Suffolk University[184] | April 3–8, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 30% | — | 33% |
| Rasmussen Reports[140] | March 24–25, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 40% | 37% | — | 23% |
| Quinnipiac University[185] | March 5–10, 2014 | 1,411 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 29% | 1% | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling[117] | February 20–23, 2014 | 869 | ± 3.3% | 41% | 35% | — | 23% |
| Quinnipiac University[186] | December 10–15, 2013 | 1,617 | ± 2.4% | 44% | 38% | 1% | 17% |
| Harper Polling[187] | November 23–24, 2013 | 985 | ± 3.12% | 42% | 36% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[188] | July 5–7, 2013 | 668 | ± 3.8% | 45% | 33% | — | 22% |
Hypothetical polling
with Braley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bruce Braley (D) |
Mark Jacobs (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[122] | May 15–19, 2014 | 914 | ± 3.3% | 42% | 36% | — | 22% |
| Hickman Analytics[183] | April 24–30, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 43% | 42% | — | 15% |
| Magellan Strategies[189] | April 14–15, 2014 | 808 | ± 3.45% | 40% | 41% | 7% | 12% |
| Suffolk University[190] | April 3–8, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 37% | 31% | — | 33% |
| Rasmussen Reports[140] | March 24–25, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 41% | 38% | — | 21% |
| Quinnipiac University[185] | March 5–10, 2014 | 1,411 | ± 2.6% | 40% | 31% | 1% | 28% |
| Public Policy Polling[117] | February 20–23, 2014 | 869 | ± 3.3% | 41% | 35% | — | 24% |
| Quinnipiac University[186] | December 10–15, 2013 | 1,617 | ± 2.4% | 46% | 37% | 1% | 16% |
| Harper Polling[187] | November 23–24, 2013 | 985 | ± 3.12% | 41% | 37% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[188] | July 5–7, 2013 | 668 | ± 3.8% | 44% | 32% | — | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bruce Braley (D) |
Scott Schaben (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University[191] | April 3–8, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 25% | — | 38% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bruce Braley (D) |
Matthew Whitaker (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[122] | May 15–19, 2014 | 914 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 36% | — | 21% |
| Suffolk University[192] | April 3–8, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 27% | — | 35% |
| Rasmussen Reports[140] | March 24–25, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 40% | 36% | — | 24% |
| Quinnipiac University[185] | March 5–10, 2014 | 1,411 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 30% | 1% | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling[117] | February 20–23, 2014 | 869 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 34% | — | 26% |
| Quinnipiac University[186] | December 10–15, 2013 | 1,617 | ± 2.4% | 43% | 40% | 1% | 17% |
| Harper Polling[187] | November 23–24, 2013 | 985 | ± 3.12% | 41% | 38% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[188] | July 5–7, 2013 | 668 | ± 3.8% | 43% | 34% | — | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bruce Braley (D) |
Steve King (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 38% | — | 13% |
| Harper Polling[20] | January 29, 2013 | 523 | ± 4.3% | 39% | 34% | — | 27% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bruce Braley (D) |
Sam Clovis (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[122] | May 15–19, 2014 | 914 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 34% | — | 23% |
| Suffolk University[193] | April 3–8, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 25% | — | 36% |
| Rasmussen Reports[140] | March 24–25, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 44% | 31% | — | 25% |
| Quinnipiac University[185] | March 5–10, 2014 | 1,411 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 27% | 1% | 29% |
| Public Policy Polling[117] | February 20–23, 2014 | 869 | ± 3.3% | 42% | 34% | — | 24% |
| Quinnipiac University[186] | December 10–15, 2013 | 1,617 | ± 2.4% | 45% | 34% | 1% | 20% |
| Harper Polling[187] | November 23–24, 2013 | 985 | ± 3.12% | 40% | 35% | — | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[188] | July 5–7, 2013 | 668 | ± 3.8% | 43% | 31% | — | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 38% | — | 13% |
| Harper Polling[20] | January 29, 2013 | 523 | ± 4.3% | 39% | 34% | — | 27% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bruce Braley (D) |
Tom Latham (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 41% | — | 15% |
| Harper Polling[20] | January 29, 2013 | 523 | ± 4.3% | 33% | 36% | — | 31% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bruce Braley (D) |
Kim Reynolds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 37% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bruce Braley (D) |
Bob Vander Plaats (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[186] | December 10–15, 2013 | 1,617 | ± 2.4% | 46% | 40% | 1% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 51% | 33% | — | 16% |
| Harper Polling[20] | January 29, 2013 | 523 | ± 4.3% | 41% | 26% | — | 32% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bruce Braley (D) |
David Young (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[186] | December 10–15, 2013 | 1,617 | ± 2.4% | 44% | 36% | 1% | 19% |
| Harper Polling[187] | November 23–24, 2013 | 985 | ± 3.12% | 41% | 35% | — | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling[188] | July 5–7, 2013 | 668 | ± 3.8% | 45% | 32% | — | 24% |
with Culver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chet Culver (D) |
Steve King (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chet Culver (D) |
Tom Latham (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 45% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chet Culver (D) |
Kim Reynolds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 41% | — | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chet Culver (D) |
Bob Vander Plaats (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 50% | 36% | — | 14% |
with Harkin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Harkin (D) |
Terry Branstad (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[194] | May 3–6, 2012 | 1,181 | ± 2.85% | 46% | 41% | — | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Harkin (D) |
Steve King (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[194] | May 3–6, 2012 | 1,181 | ± 2.85% | 48% | 37% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[195] | October 7–10, 2011 | 749 | ± 3.6% | 49% | 42% | — | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Harkin (D) |
Tom Latham (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[194] | May 3–6, 2012 | 1,181 | ± 2.85% | 46% | 37% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[195] | October 7–10, 2011 | 749 | ± 3.6% | 45% | 42% | — | 13% |
with Loebsack
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Loebsack (D) |
Steve King (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 47% | 40% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Loebsack (D) |
Tom Latham (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 43% | — | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Loebsack (D) |
Kim Reynolds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 39% | — | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Loebsack (D) |
Bob Vander Plaats (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 34% | — | 17% |
with Vilsack
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Vilsack (D) |
Steve King (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 39% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Vilsack (D) |
Tom Latham (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | — | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Vilsack (D) |
Kim Reynolds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 38% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Vilsack (D) |
Bob Vander Plaats (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[125] | February 1–3, 2013 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 35% | — | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Joni Ernst | 588,575 | 52.10% | +14.84% | |
| Democratic | Bruce Braley | 494,370 | 43.76% | −18.90% | |
| Independent | Rick Stewart | 26,815 | 2.37% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Douglas Butzier | 8,232 | 0.73% | N/A | |
| Independent | Bob Quast | 5,873 | 0.52% | N/A | |
| Independent | Ruth Smith | 4,724 | 0.42% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,111 | 0.10% | +0.02% | ||
| Total votes | 1,129,700 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Adair (Largest city: Greenfield)
- Adams (Largest city: Corning)
- Allamakee (Largest city: Waukon)
- Appanoose (Largest city: Centerville)
- Audubon (Largest city: Audubon)
- Benton (largest city: Vinton)
- Boone (largest city: Boone)
- Bremer (Largest city: Waverly)
- Buchanan (largest city: Independence)
- Buena Vista (largest city: Storm Lake)
- Butler (Largest city: Parkersburg)
- Calhoun (Largest city: Rockwell City)
- Carroll (Largest city: Carroll)
- Cass (largest city: Atlantic)
- Cedar (largest city: Tipton)
- Cherokee (Largest city: Cherokee)
- Chickasaw (largest city: New Hampton)
- Clarke (largest city: Osceola)
- Clay (Largest city: Spencer)
- Clayton (largest city: Guttenberg)
- Crawford (Largest city: Denison)
- Dallas (Largest city: Waukee)
- Davis (Largest city: Bloomfield)
- Decatur (Largest city: Lamoni)
- Delaware (Largest city: Manchester)
- Dickinson (Largest city: Spirit Lake)
- Emmet (Largest city: Estherville)
- Fayette (Largest city: Oelwein)
- Franklin (Largest city: Hampton)
- Fremont (largest city: Sidney)
- Greene (largest city: Jefferson)
- Grundy (largest city: Grundy Center)
- Guthrie (Largest city: Guthrie Center)
- Hamilton (Largest city: Webster City)
- Hancock (Largest city: Garner)
- Hardin (Largest city: Iowa Falls)
- Harrison (largest city: Missouri Valley)
- Henry (Largest city: Mount Pleasant)
- Humboldt (largest city: Humboldt)
- Ida (largest city: Ida Grove)
- Iowa (Largest city: Williamsburg)
- Jackson (largest city: Maquoketa)
- Jasper (Largest city: Newton)
- Jones (largest city: Anamosa)
- Keokuk (Largest city: Sigourney)
- Kossuth (Largest city: Algona)
- Louisa (largest city: Wapello)
- Lucas (Largest city: Chariton)
- Madison (Largest city: Winterset)
- Mahaska (largest city: Oskaloosa)
- Marion (largest city: Pella)
- Marshall (Largest city: Marshalltown)
- Mills (largest city: Glenwood)
- Mitchell (largest city: Osage)
- Monona (Largest city: Onawa)
- Monroe (Largest city: Albia)
- Montgomery (largest city: Red Oak)
- Muscatine (largest city: Muscatine)
- Palo Alto (Largest city: Emmetsburg)
- Plymouth (largest city: Le Mars)
- Pocahontas (Largest city: Pocahontas)
- Pottawattamie (largest city: Council Bluffs)
- Poweshiek (Largest city: Grinnell)
- Ringgold (Largest city: Mount Ayr)
- Sac (largest city: Sac City)
- Scott (largest city: Davenport)
- Shelby (largest city: Harlan)
- Tama (largest city: Tama)
- Taylor (Largest city: Bedford)
- Union (Largest city: Creston)
- Van Buren (Largest city: Keosauqua)
- Wapello (largest city: Ottumwa)
- Warren (Largest city: Indianola)
- Washington (Largest city: Washington)
- Wayne (Largest city: Corydon)
- Webster (largest city: Fort Dodge)
- Winnebago (largest city: Forest City)
- Winneshiek (Largest city: Decorah)
- Woodbury (Largest city: Sioux City)
- Wright (Largest city: Eagle Grove)
By congressional district
Ernst won all four congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[197]
| District | Ernst | Braley | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 48.3% | 47.87% | Rod Blum |
| 2nd | 48.91% | 47.06% | Dave Loebsack |
| 3rd | 52.19% | 43.89% | David Young |
| 4th | 59.43% | 36.17% | Steve King |