2018 United States Senate election in Michigan
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.
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November 6, 2018
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| Turnout | 4,237,271 56.72% | ||||||||||||||||
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Stabenow: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% James: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler.[1] On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.[2]
Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.5% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes,[3] making this the second-closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000.[4]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Debbie Stabenow, incumbent U.S. Senator[5][6][7]
Declined
- Mike Duggan, Mayor of Detroit
Withdrew
- Craig Allen Smith
Endorsements
Debbie Stabenow
Organizations
- EMILY's List[8]
- League of Conservation Voters[9]
- MI List[10]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[11]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[9]
- Sierra Club[12]
Individuals
- Chelsea Handler, actress and television personality[13]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) | 1,045,450 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 1,045,450 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- John James, businessman and Iraq veteran[15][16]
Defeated in primary
Failed to qualify
Declined
- John Engler, former governor[19]
- Ted Nugent, musician and political activist (endorsed James)[20]
- Robert Ritchie, better known as musician Kid Rock (endorsed James)[21]
- Bill Schuette, Michigan Attorney General, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1990 (ran for Governor)[22]
- Fred Upton, U.S. Representative[23]
Withdrew
- Lena Epstein, businesswoman (running for MI-11)[24]
- Robert P. Young Jr., former chief justice of the Michigan Supreme Court (endorsed John James)[25][26]
Endorsements
John James
U.S. President
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida[30]
U.S. Representatives
- Jack Bergman, U.S. Representative[31]
- Mike Bishop, U.S. Representative (R-MI 8)[32]
- Bill Huizenga, U.S. Representative[33]
- Paul Mitchell, U.S. Representative[34]
- John Moolenaar, U.S. Representative[35]
- Allen West, former U.S. Representative[36]
U.S. Governors
State Representatives[38]
- Julie Alexander
- Sue Allor
- Tom Barrett
- John Bizon
- Lee Chatfield
- Triston Cole
- Laura Cox
- Gary Glenn
- Joseph Graves
- Beth Griffin
- Roger Hauck
- Michele Hoitenga
- Pamela Hornberger
- Holly Hughes
- Steven Johnson
- Bronna Kahle
- Beau LaFave
- Dan Lauwers
- Eric Leutheuser
- James Lower
- Pete Lucido
- Aaron Miller
- Dave Pagel
- Jason Sheppard
- Jim Tedder
- Curt VanderWall
- Hank Vaupel
- Roger Victory[41]
- Jason Wentworth
- Mary Whiteford
Judges
- Robert P. Young Jr., former Chief Justice of the Michigan Supreme Court[26]
Cabinet-level officials
- John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]
Individuals
- Dean Cain, actor[43]
- Diamond and Silk, talk show hosts[44]
- Hugh Hewitt, talk show host[45]
- Ted Nugent, musician and political activist[46]
- Robert O'Neill, former U.S. Navy SEAL[47]
- Sandy Pensler, businessman[48]
- Kid Rock, musician[49]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of U.S. President Donald Trump[50]
- Wayne Wood, former president of the Michigan Farm Bureau[51]
Local officials
- Bob Bezotte, former Sheriff of Livingston County[52]
- Michael Borkovich, Sheriff of Leelanau County[52]
- Tim Donnellon, Sheriff of St. Clair County[52]
- Bob Gatt, Novi Mayor[39]
- Howie Hanft, Sheriff of Ogemaw County[52]
- Mike Murphy, Sheriff of Livingston County[52]
- Mark Northrup, Hudsonville Mayor[53]
- L. Brooks Patterson, Executive of Oakland County[54]
- Michael Taylor, Sterling Heights Mayor[55]
Organizations
- Associated Builders and Contractors of Michigan[56]
- Family Research Council Action PAC[57]
- Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce[58]
- Michigan Chamber of Commerce[59]
- Michigan Cattlemen's Association[41]
- National Right to Life[60]
- Right to Life of Michigan[61]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[62]
- Susan B. Anthony List[63]
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce[64]
Newspapers
Sandy Pensler
Bob Young Jr. (endorsed James)
Individuals
- John Engler, former Governor
- Ted Nugent, singer/songwriter[68]
- Peter F. Secchia, former Ambassador to Italy
Debates
A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.[69]
Polling
| Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John James |
Sandy Pensler |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research[70] | July 30, 2018 | 413 | ± 5.0% | 44% | 30% | – | 26% |
| EPIC-MRA[71] | July 21–22, 2018 | 1,045 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 38% | – | 23% |
| Emerson College[72] | July 19–21, 2018 | 202 | ± 7.3% | 28% | 28% | – | 44% |
| Marist College[73] | July 15–19, 2018 | 337 | ± 6.3% | 30% | 23% | 1% | 46% |
| National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC)[74] | July 11–14, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 21% | 28% | 10% | 41% |
| Target-Insyght[75] | June 24–26, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 29% | 32% | – | 39% |
| Strategic National (R)[76] | June 16–21, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 18% | 33% | – | 49% |
| Strategic National (R)[77] | June 9–10, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 16% | 29% | – | 54% |
| Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler)[78] | May 28–29, 2018 | 627 | ± 3.8% | 26% | 36% | – | 38% |
| Strategic National (R)[79] | April 21, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | 13% | 26% | – | 61% |
| Strategic National (R)[80] | April 4–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 12% | 20% | – | 68% |
| Denno Research[81] | April 2–3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 12% | 16% | – | 72% |
| Strategic National (R)[82] | March 19–20, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 17% | 21% | – | 62% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lena Epstein |
Bob Young |
John James |
Robert Ritchie |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics[85] | September, 2017 | –[a] | – | 7% | 3% | 5% | 29% | 56% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[86] | July 25–27, 2017 | 1,078 | ± 3.1% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 50% | 28% |
| Target-Insyght[87] | July 25–27, 2017 | 344 | ± 5.35 | 8% | 14% | 16% | 33% | 29% |
Results
James
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Pensler
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John James | 518,564 | 54.67% | |
| Republican | Sandy Pensler | 429,885 | 45.32% | |
| Write-in | 57 | <0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 948,506 | 100.00% | ||
Green Party Convention
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 14, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 15, 2018
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Debbie Stabenow (D) | $17,449,325.17 | $15,720,981.25 | $2,842,613.58 |
| John James (R) | $9,838,137.84 | $7,953,403.16 | $1,884,735.02 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[91] | |||
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[92] | Likely D | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[93] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[94] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[95] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[96] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[97][b] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Endorsements
Debbie Stabenow (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States[98]
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[99]
U.S. Senators
- Gary Peters, U.S. Senator from Michigan[100]
U.S. Representatives
- Joe Kennedy III, U.S. Representative[101]
- Dan Kildee, U.S. Representative[102]
- Brenda Lawrence, U.S. Representative[103]
Organizations
- EMILY's List[8]
- Feminist Majority Political Action Committee [104]
- League of Conservation Voters[9]
- MI List[10]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[11]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[9]
- Population Connection[105]
- Sierra Club[106]
- United Automobile Workers[107]
Individuals
- Chelsea Handler, actress and television personality[13]
John James (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States[29]
- Donald Trump, President of the United States[27][28]
U.S. Senators
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida[30]
U.S. Representatives
- Jack Bergman, U.S. Representative (MI-1)[31]
- Mike Bishop, U.S. Representative (MI-8)[32]
- Bill Huizenga, U.S. Representative (MI-2)[33]
- Paul Mitchell, U.S. Representative (MI-10)[34]
- John Moolenaar, U.S. Representative (MI-4)[35]
- Allen West, former U.S. Representative (FL-22)[36]
U.S. Governors
State Representatives[38]
- Julie Alexander
- Sue Allor
- Tom Barrett
- John Bizon
- Lee Chatfield
- Triston Cole
- Laura Cox
- Gary Glenn
- Joseph Graves
- Beth Griffin
- Roger Hauck
- Michele Hoitenga
- Pamela Hornberger
- Holly Hughes
- Steven Johnson
- Bronna Kahle
- Beau LaFave
- Dan Lauwers
- Eric Leutheuser
- James Lower
- Pete Lucido
- Aaron Miller
- Dave Pagel
- Jason Sheppard
- Jim Tedder
- Curt VanderWall
- Hank Vaupel
- Roger Victory[41]
- Jason Wentworth
- Mary Whiteford
Judges
- Robert P. Young Jr., former Chief Justice of the Michigan Supreme Court[26]
Cabinet-level officials
- John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]
Individuals
- Dean Cain, actor[43]
- Diamond and Silk, talk show hosts[44]
- Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City[108][109]
- Hugh Hewitt, talk show host[45]
- Mark Levin, lawyer, author, and radio personality[110]
- Ted Nugent, musician and political activist[46]
- Robert O'Neill, former U.S. Navy SEAL[47]
- Sandy Pensler, businessman[48]
- Jordan Peterson, clinical psychologist and professor of psychology at the University of Toronto[111]
- Kid Rock, musician[49]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of U.S. President Donald Trump[50]
- Wayne Wood, former president of the Michigan Farm Bureau[51]
Local officials
- Bob Bezotte, former Sheriff of Livingston County[52]
- Michael Borkovich, Sheriff of Leelanau County[52]
- Tim Donnellon, Sheriff of St. Clair County[52]
- Bob Gatt, Novi Mayor[39]
- Howie Hanft, Sheriff of Ogemaw County[52]
- Mike Murphy, Sheriff of Livingston County[52]
- Mark Northrup, Hudsonville Mayor[53]
- L. Brooks Patterson, Executive of Oakland County[54]
- Michael Taylor, Sterling Heights Mayor[55]
Organizations
- American Conservative Union[112]
- Associated Builders and Contractors of Michigan[56]
- Family Research Council Action PAC[57]
- Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce[58]
- Michigan Cattlemen's Association[41]
- Michigan Chamber of Commerce[59]
- National Right to Life[60]
- Right to Life of Michigan[61]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[62]
- Susan B. Anthony List[63]
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce[64]
Newspapers
- Daily Press[113]
- The Detroit News[65]
- Iron Mountain Daily News[114]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
John James (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research[115] | November 5, 2018 | 827 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 46% | 1% | 4% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[116] | November 2–5, 2018 | 1,817 | ± 2.3% | 53% | 44% | 1% | 2% |
| Mitchell Research[117] | November 4, 2018 | 701 | ± 3.7% | 53% | 46% | 0% | 1% |
| Change Research[118] | November 2–4, 2018 | 880 | – | 49% | 47% | 3%[119] | – |
| Research Co.[120] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 52% | 36% | 1% | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing[121] | October 29–30, 2018 | 764 | ± 3.6% | 54% | 41% | – | 6% |
| Glengariff Group[122] | October 25–27, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 36% | 3%[123] | 8% |
| Emerson College[124] | October 24–26, 2018 | 822 | ± 3.6% | 52% | 43% | 1% | 4% |
| Mitchell Research[125] | October 25, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 52% | 46% | 0% | 2% |
| Target-Insyght[126] | October 22–24, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.0% | 53% | 43% | 4%[127] | 1% |
| EPIC-MRA[128] | October 18–23, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 5% | 4% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[129][A] | October 20–22, 2018 | 605 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 41% | 4% | 7% |
| Michigan State University[130] | October 13–22, 2018 | 169 | – | 49% | 42% | – | – |
| Marketing Resource Group[131] | October 14–18, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 37% | – | 5% |
| Mitchell Research[132] | September 30 – October 7, 2018 | 654 | ± 3.8% | 51% | 42% | – | 8% |
| Glengariff Group[133] | September 30 – October 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 35% | 3% | 10% |
| EPIC-MRA[134] | September 21–25, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 33% | 5% | 6% |
| Ipsos[135] | September 14–24, 2018 | 1,150 | ± 3.0% | 55% | 35% | 4% | 6% |
| Target-Insyght[136] | September 10–14, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.0% | 55% | 40% | – | – |
| Mitchell Research[137] | September 12–13, 2018 | 1,009 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Strategic National (R)[138] | September 8–9, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 53% | 35% | – | 11% |
| Glengariff Group[139] | September 5–7, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 33% | 2% | 10% |
| Gravis Marketing[140] | August 14–16, 2018 | 647 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 35% | – | 14% |
| Strategic National (R)[141] | August 13–14, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 50% | 35% | 2% | 13% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[142][A] | August 11–14, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.1% | 49% | 38% | 3% | 9% |
| Emerson College[143] | July 19–21, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.3% | 47% | 29% | 8% | 17% |
| Marist College[73] | July 15–19, 2018 | 886 | ± 3.9% | 55% | 37% | 1% | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[144] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 978 | ± 5.0% | 54% | 42% | – | 4% |
| Glengariff Group[145] | January 16–19, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 30% | – | 18% |
Hypothetical polling
with Sandy Pensler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
Sandy Pensler (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[146] | July 19–21, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.3% | 48% | 32% | 7% | 13% |
| Marist College[73] | July 15–19, 2018 | 886 | ± 3.9% | 52% | 37% | 1% | 10% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[144] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 978 | ± 5.0% | 53% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Glengariff Group[145] | January 16–19, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 30% | – | 18% |
with generic Democrat and Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[147] | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 2,012 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
with Robert Ritchie (a.k.a. Kid Rock)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
Robert Ritchie (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell/Rosetta Stone[148] | October 1, 2017 | 558 | ± 4.2% | 46% | 38% | 16% |
| Zogby Analytics[149] | September 19, 2017 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| Marketing Resource Group[150] | September 13–18, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
| Target-Insyght[151] | July 25–27, 2017 | 822 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[86] | July 25–27, 2017 | 1,078 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) | 2,214,478 | 52.26% | −6.54% | |
| Republican | John James | 1,938,818 | 45.76% | +7.78% | |
| Green | Marcia Squier | 40,204 | 0.95% | +0.35% | |
| Constitution | George Huffman III | 27,251 | 0.65% | +0.09% | |
| Natural Law | John Howard Wilhelm | 16,502 | 0.39% | +0.15% | |
| Write-in | 18 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 4,237,271 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Alger (largest city: Munising)
- Alpena (largest city: Alpena)
- Arenac (largest city: Standish)
- Benzie (largest city: Frankfort)
- Clare (largest city: Clare)
- Delta (largest city: Escanaba)
- Gladwin (largest city: Gladwin)
- Gratiot (largest city: Alma)
- Iosco (largest city: East Tawas)
- Iron (largest city: Iron River)
- Jackson (largest city: Jackson)
- Lenawee (largest city: Adrian)
- Mason (largest city: Ludington)
- Menominee (largest city: Menominee)
- Ogemaw (largest city: West Branch)
- Ontonagon (largest village: Ontonagon)
- Presque Isle (largest city: Rogers City)
- Roscommon (largest settlement: Houghton Lake)
- Schoolcraft (largest city: Manistique)
- St. Clair (largest city: Port Huron)
- Bay (largest city: Bay City)
- Calhoun (largest city: Battle Creek)
- Lake (largest village: Baldwin)
- Manistee (largest city: Manistee)
- Monroe (largest city: Monroe)
- Shiawassee (largest city: Owosso)
- Van Buren (largest city: South Haven)
- Keweenaw (largest city: Ahmeek)
- Houghton (largest city: Houghton)
- Mackinac (largest city: St. Ignace)
- Dickinson (largest city: Iron Mountain)
- Baraga (largest city: Baraga)
- Luce (largest city: Newberry)
- Chippewa (largest city: Sault Ste. Marie)
- Montmorency (largest city: Lewiston)
- Cheboygan (largest city: Cheboygan)
- Crawford (largest city: Grayling)
- Oscoda (largest city: Mio)
- Alcona (largest city: Harrisville)
- Wexford (largest city: Cadillac)
- Huron (largest city: Bad Axe)
- Sanilac (largest city: Sandusky)
- Tuscola (largest city: Caro)
- Lapeer (largest city: Lapeer)
- Ionia (largest city: Ionia)
- Montcalm (largest city: Greenville)
- Clinton (largest city: St. Johns)
- Mecosta (largest city: Big Rapids)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Kent (largest city: Grand Rapids)
By congressional district
Stabenow and James each won seven of 14 congressional districts.[153]
| District | Stabenow | James | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 43% | 54% | Jack Bergman |
| 2nd | 43% | 55% | Bill Huizenga |
| 3rd | 47% | 51% | Justin Amash |
| 4th | 41% | 57% | John Moolenaar |
| 5th | 55% | 43% | Dan Kildee |
| 6th | 47% | 50% | Fred Upton |
| 7th | 45% | 53% | Tim Walberg |
| 8th | 49.4% | 49.0% | Elissa Slotkin |
| 9th | 58% | 40% | Andy Levin |
| 10th | 40% | 58% | Paul Mitchell |
| 11th | 51% | 48% | Haley Stevens |
| 12th | 66% | 32% | Debbie Dingell |
| 13th | 80% | 18% | Rashida Tlaib |
| 14th | 79% | 20% | Brenda Lawrence |
Analysis
Although Stabenow ended up winning the election by 6.5 percent, the margin was smaller than expected, considering the polling and past results of Senate elections in Michigan.[4] Part of the relative closeness of the race has been attributed to the Stabenow campaign having run no negative ads against James during the election.[154] Although James won most of Michigan's smaller counties, Stabenow won large margins in urban areas and modest margins in suburban areas. Stabenow trounced James in Wayne County, home of Detroit, and also performed well in Detroit's suburbs. She also easily won in Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and Ingham County, home of Lansing. Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, also narrowly flipped to Stabenow, making this the first Senate election of her career in which she carried the county, and also the only county to flip her direction in 2018, and only the second time (after Carl Levin in 2008) a Democrat had carried the county since Donald Riegle in 1982. In addition to Stabenow's win, Democrats won the previously Republican-held offices of governor, secretary of state, and attorney general, ensuring that as of January 1, 2019, all elected statewide officials would be Democrats. James once again ran unsuccessfully for the other Senate seat in 2020, as he was defeated by incumbent Gary Peters. James would later be elected as a representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.