2020 United States Senate election in Michigan
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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November 3, 2020
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   Peters: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% James: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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This race was one of two Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state Donald Trump won in 2016.[1] The primary was held on August 4.[2]
The filing deadline for candidates to run in the primary was April 21,[3] but this was extended to May 8 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[4] The election was considered a potential upset pickup by the Republicans due to the state's demographic trends, Donald Trump's upset win in 2016, and Republican candidate John James exceeding expectations in the 2018 election.
Peters won election to a second term, though by a much closer margin than expected.[5] James, who outperformed Trump on the same ballot, initially refused to concede,[6] claiming in a statement published to his campaign website two days after the election that he had been "cheated" out of winning the election. The statement alleged that there were "deep concerns that millions of Michiganders may have been disenfranchised by a dishonest few who cheat."[7] On November 24, James conceded the race exactly three weeks after election day.[8] With a margin of 1.68%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2020 Senate election cycle, behind only the regularly-scheduled election in Georgia.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Gary Peters, incumbent U.S. senator[9][10]
Declined
- Abdul El-Sayed, former executive director of the Detroit Department of Health and Wellness Promotion and candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2018[11]
Endorsements
Gary Peters
Organizations
- Clean Water Action[12]
- Council for a Livable World[13]
- End Citizens United[14]
- Feminist Majority PAC[15]
- Giffords[16]
- Human Rights Campaign[17]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund[18]
- League of Conservation Voters[19]
- Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus[20]
- Michigan Education Association[21]
- Michigan Realtors[22]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[23]
- National Organization for Women[24]
- Peace Action[25]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[26]
- Population Connection[27]
- Progressive Women's Alliance of West Michigan[28]
- Sierra Club[29]
- Voter Protection Project[30]
- VoteVets[31]
Democratic primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gary Peters (incumbent) | 1,180,780 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 1,180,780 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- John James, businessman, Iraq War veteran and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018[33]
Disqualified
- Bob Carr, historic preservationist, businessman and perennial candidate[34][35]
- Valerie Willis, write-in candidate in the 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan[36][35] (switched to U.S. Taxpayers candidacy)[37]
Declined
- Tom Leonard, former speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives and nominee for Michigan Attorney General in 2018[38]
- Candice Miller, Macomb County Public Works commissioner and former U.S. representative for Michigan's 10th congressional district[39]
- Sandy Pensler, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[38]
- Bill Schuette, former Michigan attorney general, nominee for governor of Michigan in 2018 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1990[40] (endorsed John James)[41]
- Rick Snyder, former governor of Michigan[42]
Endorsements
John James
Polling
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John James | 1,005,315 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 1,005,315 | 100.0% | ||
Other candidates
Communist Party
Withdrawn
Green Party
Nominee
- Marcia Squier (2018 Green Party nominee for US Senate)[48]
Natural Law Party
Nominee
- Doug Dern[37]
U.S. Taxpayers Party
Nominee
- Valerie L. Willis (switched from Republican candidacy after being disqualified for the Republican primary)[37]
Independents
- Leonard Gadzinski[49]
Withdrawn
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[50] | Lean D | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[51] | Lean D | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[53] | Lean D | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[54] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[55] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[56] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[57] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[58] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
Additional general election endorsements
Gary Peters (D)
U.S. executive branch officials
- Joe Biden, 47th vice president of the United States (2009–2017), former U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009) and 2020 Democratic nominee for President of the United States
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017) and former U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
U.S. senators
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota (2007–present)[59]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from Vermont (2007–present) and former U.S. representative from Vermont's at-large congressional district (1991–2007)[60]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[61]
Organizations
- Black Economic Alliance[62]
- Center for Biological Diversity[63]
- Congressional Black Caucus PAC[64]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[65]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[66]
- Fems for Dems[67]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[68]
- National Association of Social Workers[69]
- National Committee for an Effective Congress[70]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[71]
- National Education Association[72]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[73]
- Progressive Turnout Project[74]
Newspapers
Labor unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 25[76]
- American Federation of Teachers - Michigan[77]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers[78]
- International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers[79]
- Michigan AFL–CIO[80]
- Michigan Building and Construction Trades Council[78]
- Michigan Laborers' District Council[81]
- Michigan Nurses Association[78]
- Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters[78]
- Service Employees International Union Healthcare Michigan[78]
- United Auto Workers[82]
Newspapers
John James (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
- Nikki Haley, 29th United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and 116th governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[83]
- Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021)[84]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[85]
U.S. representatives
- Dan Crenshaw, U.S. representative from Texas's 2nd congressional district (2019–present)[86]
Newspapers
- The Alpena News[87]
- The Daily Mining Gazette[87]
- Daily Press[87]
- The Detroit News[88]
- Washington Examiner[89]
Individuals
- Kirstie Alley, actress[90]
- Donald Trump Jr., son of United States President Donald Trump[91]
Organizations
- American Conservative Union[92]
- Family Research Council Action[93]
- FreedomWorks[92]
- Huck PAC[94]
- Michigan Chamber of Commerce[95]
- Michigan Farm Bureau[96]
- National Federation of Independent Business[94]
- National Right to Life Committee[94]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[97][94]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[92]
- Susan B. Anthony List[94]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[94]
Polling
Graphical summary
View source data.
Aggregate polls
| John James vs. Gary Peters | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Gary Peters | John James | Other/Undecided[c] | Margin |
| 270 To Win[98] | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 49.8% | 42.2% | 8.0% | Peters +7.6 |
| Real Clear Politics[99] | November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 49.8% | 44.4% | 5.8% | Peters +5.4 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gary Peters (D) |
John James (R) |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co.[100] | October 31 – November 1, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 52% | 37% | 12%[d] |
| Change Research/CNBC[101] | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 383 (LV) | ± 5.01% | 51% | 46% | 3%[e] |
| Swayable[102] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 393 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters[103] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 654 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 44% | 5%[f] |
| Morning Consult[104] | October 22–31, 2020 | 1,736 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 43% | – |
| Emerson College[105] | October 29–30, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 52%[g] | 46% | 2%[h] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[106][A] | October 29–30, 2020 | 745 (V) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 44% | 2%[i] |
| Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[107] | October 25–30, 2020 | 993 (LV) | – | 54% | 43% | 2%[j] |
| CNN/SSRS[108] | October 23–30, 2020 | 907 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 40% | 7%[k] |
| Mitchell Research (R)[109] | October 29, 2020 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.43% | 50% | 45% | 5%[l] |
| RMG Research[110] | October 27–29, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50%[m] | 41% | 9%[n] |
| 52%[o] | 39% | 9%[p] | ||||
| 48%[q] | 42% | 9%[r] | ||||
| EPIC-MRA[111] | October 25–28, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 42% | 11%[s] |
| Kiaer Research[112] | October 21–28, 2020 | 669 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 51% | 38% | 11%[t] |
| Mitchell Research (R)[113] | October 25–27, 2020 | 759 (LV) | ± 3.56% | 52% | 43% | 3%[u] |
| Tarrance Group (R)[114][B] | October 24–26, 2020[v] | – (V)[w] | ± 4.3% | 48% | 46% | 1%[x] |
| Swayable[115] | October 23–26, 2020 | 365 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 58% | 42% | – |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[116] | October 23–26, 2020 | 856 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 41% | 8%[y] |
| Ipsos/Reuters[117] | October 20–26, 2020 | 652 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 44% | 6%[z] |
| Glengariff Group[118] | October 23–25, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 48% | 39% | 9%[aa] |
| ABC/Washington Post[119] | October 20–25, 2020 | 789 (LV) | ± 4% | 52% | 46% | 2%[ab] |
| Gravis Marketing[120] | October 24, 2020 | 679 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 41% | 7%[ac] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[121][C] | October 21–22, 2020 | 804 (V) | – | 52% | 43% | 6%[ad] |
| Citizen Data[122] | October 17–20, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 42% | 12%[ae] |
| FOX News[123] | October 17–20, 2020 | 1,032 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 41% | 9%[af] |
| Reuters/Ipsos[124] | October 14–20, 2020 | 686 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 45% | 5%[ag] |
| Morning Consult[104] | October 11–20, 2020 | 1,717 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 42% | – |
| Change Research/CNBC[125] | October 16–19, 2020 | 718 (LV)[ah] | – | 50% | 45% | – |
| EPIC-MRA[126] | October 15–19, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 39% | 16%[ai] |
| Mitchell Research (R)[127] | October 18, 2020 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.27% | 49% | 43% | 8%[aj] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)/Restoration PAC[128][D] | October 15–18, 2020 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 48% | 50% | 3%[ak] |
| Data For Progress[129] | October 15–18, 2020 | 830 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 43% | 9%[al] |
| HarrisX/The Hill[130] | October 12–15, 2020 | 1,289 (LV) | – | 50%[am] | 43% | – |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[131] | October 11–15, 2020 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 47% | 48% | 5%[an] |
| Reuters/Ipsos[132] | October 7–13, 2020 | 620 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 44% | 4%[ao] |
| EPIC-MRA[133] | October 8–12, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 39% | 16%[ap] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[134] | October 6–11, 2020 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 42% | 15%[aq] |
| Morning Consult[135] | October 2–11, 2020 | 1,710 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 40% | – |
| YouGov/CBS[136] | October 6–9, 2020 | 1,181 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 44% | 9%[ar] |
| Baldwin Wallace University[137] | September 30 – October 8, 2020 | 1,134 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 42% | 10%[as] |
| Emerson College[138] | October 6–7, 2020 | 716 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 41% | 8%[at] |
| Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[139][E] | October 3–6, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 49%[au] | 42% | 8%[av] |
| Reuters/Ipsos[140] | September 29 – October 6, 2020 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 43% | 7%[aw] |
| Tarrance Group (R)[141][B] | October 3–5, 2020 | 605 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 46% | – |
| Change Research/CNBC[142] | October 2–4, 2020 | 676 (LV) | – | 51% | 43% | 6%[ax] |
| Glengariff Group[143] | September 30 – October 3, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 40% | 16%[ay] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[144][F] | September 30 – October 1, 2020 | 746 (V) | – | 48% | 41% | 10%[az] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)/Restoration PAC[145][146][G] | September 26–28, 2020 | 1,042 (LV) | ± 2.95% | 48% | 47% | 5%[ba] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[147] | September 23–25, 2020 | 1,047 (LV) | ± 2.95% | 47% | 47% | 6%[bb] |
| Marist College/NBC[148] | September 19–23, 2020 | 799 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 44% | 7%[bc] |
| Baldwin Wallace University[149] | September 9–22, 2020 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
| Change Research/CNBC[150] | September 18–20, 2020 | 568 (LV) | – | 50% | 44% | 5%[bd] |
| Morning Consult[151] | September 11–20, 2020 | 1,376 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 47%[be] | 40% | – |
| Hart Research Associates (D)[152][H] | September 17–19, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 42% | – |
| Data for Progress (D)[153] | September 14–19, 2020 | 455 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 42% | 12%[bf] |
| Marketing Resource Group (R)[154] | September 14–19, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 20%[bg] |
| Morning Consult[155] | September 8–17, 2020 | 1,451 (LV)[bh] | ± (2% – 4%) | 48% | 40% | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters[156] | September 11–16, 2020 | 637 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | 7%[bi] |
| EPIC-MRA[157] | September 10–15, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 41% | 14%[bj] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[158] | September 12–14, 2020 | 930 (LV) | ± 3.21% | 51% | 35% | 13%[bk] |
| Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group[159][I] | August 28 – September 8, 2020 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 41% | 14%[bl] |
| Change Research/CNBC[160] | September 4–6, 2020 | 876 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 46% | 5%[bm] |
| Rasmussen Reports[161] | September 2–3, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 13%[bn] |
| Glengariff Group/Detroit News[162] | September 1–3, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 41% | 14%[bo] |
| Tarrance Group (R)[163][B] | September 1–3, 2020 | 569 (RV) | – | 47% | 46% | 7%[bp] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[164] | August 30 – September 3, 2020 | 967 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 38% | 12%[bq] |
| Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[165][E] | August 30 – September 2, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 49%[br] | 42% | 8%[bs] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[166][F] | August 28–29, 2020 | 897 (V) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 39% | 14%[bt] |
| Change Research/CNBC[167] | August 21–23, 2020 | 809 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 45% | 6%[bu] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[168] | August 14–23, 2020 | 1,048 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 5%[bv] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[169] | August 16–18, 2020 | 812 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 39% | 13%[bw] |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[170][J][171] | August 11–15, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 53% | 39% | 8%[bx] |
| Tarrance Group (R)[163][B] | August 10–13, 2020 | 602 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Change Research/CNBC[172] | August 7–9, 2020 | 413 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 45% | 7%[by] |
| EPIC-MRA[173] | July 25–30, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 40% | 10%[bz] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[174][F] | July 28–29, 2020 | 876 (V) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 39% | 13%[ca] |
| Change Research/CNBC[175] | July 24–26, 2020 | 413 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[176] | July 17–26, 2020 | 1,320 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 35% | 16% |
| CNN/SSRS[177] | July 18–24, 2020 | 927 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 38% | 8%[cb] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[178] | July 19–23, 2020 | 811 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 35% | 13%[cc] |
| Gravis Marketing[179][180] | July 22, 2020 | 754 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 39% | 11%[cd] |
| Marketing Resource Group (R)[181] | July 19–21, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 26%[ce] |
| FOX News[182] | July 18–20, 2020 | 756 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 38% | 15%[cf] |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[183][184] | July 13–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 9%[cg] |
| Spry Strategies (R)[185][K] | July 11–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 37% | 15%[ch] |
| Change Research/CNBC[186] | July 10–12, 2020 | 824 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 43% | 6%[ci] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[187][L] | July 9–10, 2020 | 1,041 (V) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| Change Research/CNBC[188] | June 26–28, 2020 | 699 (LV)[cj] | ± 3.9% | 49% | 42% | 9%[ck] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[189][F] | June 26–27, 2020 | 1,237 (V) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 39% | 14%[cl] |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[190] | June 17–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 38% | 12%[cm] |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College[191] | June 8–17, 2020 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 31% | 29%[cn] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[192] | June 14–16, 2020 | 826 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 32% | 18%[co] |
| Marketing Resource Group (R)[193] | June 12–15, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 30% | 33%[cp] |
| American Greatness/TIPP (R)[194] | June 9–12, 2020 | 907 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 35% | 17%[cq] |
| Kiaer Research[195] | May 31 – June 7, 2020 | 543 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 48% | 32% | 20%[cr] |
| EPIC-MRA[196] | May 30 – June 3, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 36% | 13%[cs] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[197][F] | May 29–30, 2020 | 1,582 (V) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 39% | 13%[ct] |
| Change Research/Crooked Media[198] | May 11–17, 2020 | 3,070 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[199] | May 1–5, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 36% | 17%[cu] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[200] | April 28–29, 2020 | 1,270 (V) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
| FOX News[201] | April 18–21, 2020 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 36% | 13% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[202][203] | April 9–18, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[204] | March 31 – April 1, 2020 | 1,019 (V) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 38% | 17% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[205] | March 30 – April 1, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[206] | March 12–21, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 13% |
| Marketing Resource Group (R)[207] | March 16–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 35% | 17%[cv] |
| Firehouse/0ptimus[208] | March 5–7, 2020 | 550 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 40% | 41% | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University[209] | February 12–18, 2020 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 39% | 15% |
| Baldwin Wallace University[210] | January 8–20, 2020 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| Glengariff Group[211] | January 3–7, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
| Emerson College[212] | October 31 – November 3, 2019 | 1,051 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| Hodas & Associates Restoration PAC (R)[213] | October 10–16, 2019[cw] | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 35% | 17% |
| Marketing Resource Group (R)[214] | October 7–10, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Target-Insyght/MIRS News[215] | September 24–26, 2019 | 804 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 37% | 10% |
| Denno Research/Vanguard PA/PSC (D)[216] | September 21–24, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| Target Insyght[45] | April 22–25, 2019 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 36% | 14% |
| Emerson College[217] | March 7–10, 2019 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 43% | 14% |
Hypothetical polling
The following poll assumes neither Republican candidate would withdraw after their primary.
with Bob Carr and John James
with Bill Schuette
with Gary Peters and Generic Republican
with Gary Peters and Generic Opponent
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group/Detroit News[221] | October 23–25, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 41% | – | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters[156] | September 11–16, 2020 | 637 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 43% | 2%[cz] | 8%[da] |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[170][M] | August 11–15, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[183][184] | July 13–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 38% | – | 13% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[222] | June 17–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 34% | – | 15% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[199] | May 1–5, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 38% | 15%[db] | – |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[223] | April 9–18, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 16%[dc] | – |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[224] | March 12–21, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 12%[dd] | – |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gary Peters (incumbent) | 2,734,568 | 49.90% | −4.71% | |
| Republican | John James | 2,642,233 | 48.22% | +6.89% | |
| Constitution | Valerie Willis | 50,597 | 0.92% | −0.28% | |
| Green | Marcia Squier | 39,217 | 0.72% | −0.12% | |
| Natural Law | Doug Dern | 13,093 | 0.24% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 12 | 0.00% | ±0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 5,479,720 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
By county | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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By congressional district
Despite losing the state, James won eight of 14 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[227]
| District | Peters | James | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 41% | 58% | Jack Bergman |
| 2nd | 41% | 57% | Bill Huizenga |
| 3rd | 45% | 53% | Justin Amash |
| Peter Meijer | |||
| 4th | 38% | 61% | John Moolenaar |
| 5th | 53% | 45% | Dan Kildee |
| 6th | 44% | 53% | Fred Upton |
| 7th | 42% | 56% | Tim Walberg |
| 8th | 48% | 51% | Elissa Slotkin |
| 9th | 56% | 42% | Andy Levin |
| 10th | 36% | 63% | Paul Mitchell |
| Lisa McClain | |||
| 11th | 50% | 49% | Haley Stevens |
| 12th | 63% | 34% | Debbie Dingell |
| 13th | 78% | 19% | Rashida Tlaib |
| 14th | 78% | 20% | Brenda Lawrence |
Analysis
Polls indicated that the race would be close, with Peters leading in most polls. In 2018, Michigan voters approved "no reason required" absentee balloting.[228] The COVID-19 pandemic led to a record number of absentee voters.[229] Michigan law at that time did not allow for early tabulating of absentee ballots,[230][231] so the absentee ballots were tabulated after completing the tabulating of ballots from polling places. This created a "mirage" effect because more Republicans voted on election day, and more Democrats voted by absentee ballot.[232] James was ahead when the counting of election day ballots was completed. When the absentee ballots were tabulated, and with 98% of the votes counted, Peters was declared the winner by a tight margin of one percentage point after a day of waiting.[233] When the results were certified on November 23, Peters' margin of victory was 1.68%.[234]
Peters was able to win re-election by running up a big margin in Wayne County, home of Detroit, winning over 67% of the vote there. He also managed to improve his performance in the reliably Democratic Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor, improving on his 2014 election by almost three percentage points. He also came within just 1,139 votes of winning Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, having lost the county by over eight percentage points six years prior. Peters was sworn in for his second term on January 3, 2021. His term will expire on January 3, 2027.
African-Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Peters winning the election.[235] James would later be elected as a representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.
Litigation
After Peters took the lead in the election on the 4th, James refused to concede the race. The following day, James claimed that he had been cheated out of winning the election in a statement published on his campaign website. The statement said that there were "[...] deep concerns that millions of Michiganders may have been disenfranchised by a dishonest few who cheat" and that "[...] there is enough credible evidence to warrant an investigation to ensure that elections were conducted in a transparent, legal and fair manner."[7] A lawyer for James' campaign alleged that fraud was committed at the TCF Center, which the Trump campaign had also attempted to claim in a dismissed lawsuit.[6][236][237] James conceded the election to Peters on November 24.[238]
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Sample size estimated by multiplying the total sample size with the percentage of it that identifies as Republican
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 10%
- "Refused" with 1%; Did not vote and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Someone else" with 2%
- Squier (G) with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
- Squier (G) with 3%; "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
- "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 2%
- Standard VI response
- "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
- Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
- Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
- "Third party" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
- "Other/third party" with 2%; Undecided with 9%
- Undecided with 3%
- Additional details sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Not yet released
- Undecided with 1%
- Squier (G) and would not vote with 1%; Dern (Natural Law), "Someone else" and Willis (Taxpayers) with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
- "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
- Undecided with 9%
- "Other" with 1%; "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 1%
- Undecided with 7%
- Undecided with 6%
- "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
- "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 11%
- Undecided with 8%
- "Someone else" and Undecided with 1%
- Undecided with 9%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Someone else" and Undecided with 3%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
- "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 11%
- Squier (G) and would not vote with 1%; Dern (Natural Law), "someone else" and Willis (Taxpayers Party) with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 13%
- "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
- Undecided with 10%
- "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 6%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- Did/would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 3%
- "Do not recall" with 1%; "Did not vote" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 5%
- "Refused" with 2%; "Third Party" with 1%; Undecided with 13%
- Squier (G) with 3%; Undecided with 7%
- "Another Party Candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
- "Another Party Candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
- "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
- Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 3%
- Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- Undecided with 12%
- "Someone else" with 8%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 10%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 6%
- "Third party candidate" with 5%; "Undecided/Refused" with 9%
- "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
- Squier (G) with 2%; Willis (Taxpayers Party) with 1%; Dern (Natural Law) and "someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 11%
- Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
- Undecided with 14%
- "Other candidates" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
- "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
- Squier (G) with 4%; Undecided with 10%
- Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- "Another party candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
- "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 12%
- Undecided with 8%
- Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 5%
- "Undecided/refused" with 10%
- "Third party" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
- "None of the above/neither" with 2%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
- "Third party/write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
- Undecided with 11%
- "Someone else" with 14%; "refused" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 12%
- "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 10%
- Undecided with 9%
- "Another candidate" with 7%; Undecided with 8%
- Undecided with 5%; would not vote with 1%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Undecided with 7%; "would not vote" with 2%
- Undecided with 10%; "would not vote" with 4%
- Undecided with 12%
- Undecided with 24%; would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate" with 1%
- Undecided with 15%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- Undecided with 18.2%; "Someone else" with 13.7%; Would not vote with 1.5%
- Not sure with 13%; "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
- Undecided with 17%; "A different candidate" with 3%
- Includes "refused"
- "Third party" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
- Undecided with 17%
- "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 13%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- The survey indicates the candidate is called 'Bob Barr', but this is assumed to be an error.
- "It is time for someone new" with 30.3% as opposed to "Peters deserves to be re-elected"
- "Candidate from another party" with 2%
- "Prefer not to answer/refused" with 7%; "will not vote/not sure" with 1%
- "Independent/Undecided" with 15%
- "Independent/Undecided" with 16%
- "Independent/Undecided" with 12%
Partisan clients
- Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
- Poll conducted for James' campaign.
- Poll sponsored by The American Bridge PAC, which exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
- The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
- The American Action Forum is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates
- Poll conducted for Progress Michigan, a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates.
- The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
- Poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
- The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
- This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
- Poll sponsored by Giffords, which had endorsed Peters prior to the sampling period
- The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
