2024 United States Senate election in Michigan

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various state and local elections. Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin won her first term in office, narrowly defeating Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers. She succeeded Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, who did not seek a fifth term.[1][2]

Quick facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2024 United States Senate election in Michigan

 2018
November 5, 2024
2030 
Turnout5,577,183
73.5% Increase
 
Nominee Elissa Slotkin Mike Rogers
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,712,686 2,693,680
Percentage 48.64% 48.30%

Slotkin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Rogers:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%      No data

U.S. senator before election

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Elissa Slotkin
Democratic

Close

Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[3] Slotkin won the Democratic nomination with 76% of the vote over actor Hill Harper and Rogers won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former congressman Justin Amash. This was the first open race for this seat since 1994. As Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried Michigan on the same ballot, this was the first time Michigan voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Don Riegle was re-elected as Republican George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988.

On November 6, 2024, major news organizations projected that Slotkin had won the election.[4][5][6] Slotkin received 23,847 fewer votes than Kamala Harris, while Rogers received 122,956 fewer votes than Donald Trump.

Background

Michigan is considered to be a purple state. However, Democrats had seen much more success in recent years in the state. At the time of the election, Democrats controlled both U.S. Senate seats, seven of 13 of the U.S. House congressional delegation, the minimum majority in both houses of the Michigan Legislature, and all statewide offices.[7]

This race was considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean and that there was no incumbent; however, most polls and ratings had Slotkin as the slight favorite to win.[8][9] In-fighting among Michigan Republicans after the 2022 elections left the state party poor in funding for the U.S. Senate race[10] and defaulting on a bank loan.[11][12] The MIGOP also failed to meet campaign finance reporting deadlines.[13]

Democratic primary

Campaign

Elissa Slotkin led the field in fundraising with nearly $16 million raised as of April 2024.[14][15][16] Nearly $6 million of this had been raised before August 2023.[17] She continued to dominate fundraising in the second quarter of 2024 outpacing her Republican opponent by as much as three-to-one with 95% of her contributions coming from donors giving $100 or less according to the campaign.[18][19]

Slotkin released the first TV ad of the primary campaign on May 28 which focused on her work in national security in the George W. Bush and Obama administrations.[20]

Campaign contribution allegations

In November 2023, Hill Harper claimed that he had been offered $20 million in campaign contributions from former Motown Motion Picture Studios owner Linden Nelson if he would drop out of the Senate race to mount a primary challenge against U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib.[21][22][23] The allegation was denied by Nelson.[21][24] Nasser Beydoun subsequently also alleged that former Michigan Democratic Party chair Lon Johnson had approached him with an identical offer to drop out of the Senate race and primary Tlaib. Johnson denied the claims, saying, "that's just crazy. I didn't offer him $20 million, or any other amount of money, to run against Rashida. That's insane."[25] Beydoun was later disqualified from the ballot.[26]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Hill Harper

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Elissa Slotkin

Statewide officials

U.S. representatives

State cabinet officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Nasser Beydoun (disqualified)

Organizations

Pamela Pugh (withdrawn)

Local officials

Declined to endorse

Presidents

U.S. senators

Labor unions

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nasser Beydoun (D)[b] $855,335 $678,582 $148,721
Hill Harper (D) $2,037,766[c] $1,596,454 $441,312
Leslie Love (D)[d] $23,395 $17,017 $17,017
Pamela Pugh (D)[d] $90,638 $81,363 $9,275
Elissa Slotkin (D) $16,094,088 $7,473,267 $8,620,820
Source: Federal Election Commission[92]
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Nasser
Beydoun
Hill
Harper
Leslie
Love
Elissa
Slotkin
Other Undecided
Mitchell Research[93][A] June 3, 2024 268 (LV) ± 6.0% 1% 8% 53% 38%
Mitchell Research[94][A] March 15–16, 2024 260 (LV) 3% 11% 59% 27%
Target Insyght[95][B] January 4–10, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 0% 7% 2% 65% 26%[f]
Public Policy Polling (D)[96][C] December 28–29, 2023 549 (LV) 2% 12% 3% 50% 34%
14% 56% 31%
Emerson College[98] August 1–2, 2023 551 (RV) ± 4.1% 2% 8% 2% 34% 29%[g] 25%
Close

Results

Results by county:
  Slotkin
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[99]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Elissa Slotkin 712,791 76.33%
Democratic Hill Harper 221,053 23.67%
Total votes 933,844 100.0%
Close

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Campaign

Amash, Pensler and Rogers were certified to be on the Republican primary ballot at the end of May.[120]

Residency controversy

Even though Rogers is a former Michigan congressman, he owns a home in Cape Coral, Florida, and was registered to vote in Florida in 2022.[121] He has since purchased a home in White Lake Township, living outside Brighton while that home is remodeled. He also changed his voting registration back to Michigan.[122] His Florida residency became the subject of negative ads against him.[123][124][125] New controversy arose regarding the completion of Rogers's new home.[126]

Endorsements

Justin Amash

U.S. senators

Newspapers and other media

Organizations

Sherry O'Donnell

Executive office officials

State legislators

Individuals

Mike Rogers
Executive branch officials
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Local officials
Labor unions
  • Police Officers Association of Michigan[141]
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Sandy Pensler (withdrawn)

Individuals

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Justin Amash (R) $662,743 $633,56 $400,706
Sherry O'Donnell (R) $422,182 $376,550 $46,517
Mike Rogers (R) $5,005,548 $2,489,477 $2,516,070
James Craig (R)[d] $136,670 $136,670 $0
Michael Hoover (R)[d] $236,591 $234,931 $1,660
Peter Meijer (R)[d] $1,083,664 $985,747 $97,916
Sandy Pensler (R)[d] $4,959,782 $3,894,186 $1,065,595
Sharon Savage (R)[d] $100,130 $50,956 $49,174
Alexandria Taylor (R)[d] $26,120 $26,120 $0
J. D. Wilson (R)[d] $8,086 $6,438 $1,647
Source: Federal Election Commission[92]
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Justin
Amash
James
Craig
Peter
Meijer
Sherry
O'Donnell
Sandy
Pensler
Mike
Rogers
Other Undecided
July 20, 2024 Pensler withdraws from the race
Tarrance Group[146][D] July 8–10, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 14% 5% 14% 52% 16%
Mitchell Research[93][A] June 3, 2024 266 (LV) ± 6.0% 8% 0% 3% 28% 61%
Public Policy Polling (D)[147][C] May 22–23, 2024 486 (LV) 11% 3% 12% 30% 3%[j] 41%
Emerson College[148] April 30 – May 1, 2024 545 (LV) ± 4.1% 8% 2% 3% 32% 54%
April 26, 2024 Meijer withdraws from the race
Mitchell Research[94][A] March 15–16, 2024 288 (LV) 6% 7% 1% 27% 59%
Market Resource Group (R)[149] February 19–22, 2024 600 (LV) 7% 2% 23% 6%[k] 62%
February 13, 2024 Craig withdraws from the race
Target Insyght[150][B] January 4–10, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 11% 1% 2% 20% 1%[l] 33%
Public Policy Polling (D)[151] October 9–10, 2023 430 (LV) ± 4.7% 30% 19% 51%
Emerson College[98] August 1–2, 2023 477 (RV) ± 4.4% 9% 12% 50%[m] 29%
Close

Results

Results by county:
  Rogers
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[99]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Rogers 555,766 63.19%
Republican Justin Amash 137,565 15.64%
Republican Sherry O'Donnell 106,466 12.10%
Republican Sandy Pensler (withdrawn) 79,772 9.07%
Total votes 879,569 100.0%
Close

Third-party candidates

Declared

  • Doug Dern (Natural Law), chair of the Natural Law Party and perennial candidate[152]
  • Douglas Marsh (Green), newspaper journalist[152]
  • Joseph Solis-Mullen (Libertarian), college professor[152]
  • Dave Stein (U.S. Taxpayers), blue collar worker[152]

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[153] Tossup October 8, 2024
Inside Elections[8] Tilt D September 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[154] Lean D September 25, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[155] Lean D October 9, 2024
Elections Daily[156] Lean D October 9, 2024
CNalysis[157] Lean D October 9, 2024
RealClearPolitics[158] Tossup October 9, 2024
Split Ticket[159] Lean D October 23, 2024
538[160] Likely D October 23, 2024
Close

Post-primary endorsements

Mike Rogers (R)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide elected officials

Mayors

Organizations

Elissa Slotkin (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Debates

More information No., Date ...
2024 Michigan U.S. Senate election debate
No. Date Host Moderators Link Democratic Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Slotkin Rogers
1 October 8, 2024 WOOD-TV Rick Albin [175] P P
2 October 14, 2024 WXYZ-TV Carolyn Clifford
Alicia Smith
Chuck Stokes
[176] P P
Close

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Mike
Rogers (R)
Undecided
[n]
Margin
RealClearPolitics[177] October 24 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.4% 46.1% 5.5% Slotkin +2.3%
538[178] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.7% 45.1% 6.2% Slotkin +3.6%
270toWin[179] October 23 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.6% 44.5% 6.9% Slotkin +4.1%
TheHill/DDHQ[180] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 49.1% 46.3% 4.6% Slotkin +2.8%
Average 48.7% 45.5% 5.8% Slotkin +3.2%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Mike
Rogers (R)
Other Undecided
AtlasIntel[181] November 3–4, 2024 1,113 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 3%[o] 1%
Research Co.[182] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 50% 44% 2%[p] 4%
Patriot Polling (R)[183] November 1–3, 2024 858 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 49% 1%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[184] November 1–3, 2024 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[185] November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 48% 2% 2%
AtlasIntel[186] November 1–2, 2024 1,198 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 3%[o] 1%
Emerson College[187][E] October 30 – November 2, 2024 790 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 45% 6%
Mitchell Research[188][F] October 29 – November 2, 2024 585 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 48% 4%
48% 46% 1%[q] 2%
New York Times/Siena College[189] October 29 – November 2, 2024 998 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 46% 6%
998 (RV) ± 3.5% 45% 45% 9%
Mainstreet Research/FAU[190] October 25 – November 2, 2024 713 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 43% 1%[r] 9%
733 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 42% 2%[s] 10%
Morning Consult[191] October 23 – November 1, 2024 1,112 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 41% 10%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[192] October 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) 47% 46% 7%
YouGov[193][G] October 25–31, 2024 940 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 42% 7%
985 (RV) 51% 41% 8%
ActiVote[194] October 12–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 49%
Marist College[195] October 27–30, 2024 1,214 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 46% 1%[t] 1%
1,356 (RV) ± 3.3 51% 47% 1%[t] 1%
AtlasIntel[196] October 27–30, 2024 1,136 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 46% 3%[o] 1%
Echleon Insights[197] October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 46% 5%[u] 1%
Mitchell Research[198][F] October 28–29, 2024 – (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 49% 10%
Tarrance Group (R)[199][H] October 26–29, 2024 620 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 50% 2%
AtlasIntel[200] October 25–29, 2024 983 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 3%[o] 1%
EPIC-MRA[201][I] October 24–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% 7%[v] 3%
The Washington Post[202] October 24–28, 2024 1,003 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 45% 7%
1,003 (RV) ± 3.7% 46% 45% 9%
Fox News[203] October 24–28, 2024 988 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 47% 2%
1,275 (RV) ± 2.5% 51% 46% 2%
CNN/SSRS[204] October 23–28, 2024 726 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 42% 9%[w] 1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[205] October 26–27, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 48% 1%[r] 3%
Emerson College[206][J] October 25–27, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% 6%
Suffolk University[207][K] October 24–27, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 45% 5%[x] 3%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[208] October 23–27, 2024 400 (LV) ±  4.9% 48% 47% 1%[y] 4%
Patriot Polling (R)[209] October 24–26, 2024 796 (RV) 51% 48%
Glengariff Group[210][L] October 22–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 5%[z] 7%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[211] October 16–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.49% 48% 39% 5%[aa] 8%
Quinnipiac University[212] October 17–21, 2024 1,136 (LV) ± 2.9% 52% 44% 2%[ab] 2%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[213] October 18–20, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[214][M] October 16–18, 2024 1,008 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 38% 7%[ac] 10%
AtlasIntel[215] October 12–17, 2024 1,529 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 2%[ad] 2%
The Bullfinch Group[216] October 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% 7%
RMG Research[217][N] October 10–16, 2024 789 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 43% 4%[ae] 5%
49%[af] 45% 1%[ag] 4%
Morning Consult[191] October 6–15, 2024 496 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11%
Mitchell Research[218][A] October 14, 2024 589 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 43% 10%
45% 40% 4%[ai] 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[219][M] October 12–14, 2024 682 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 40% 6%[aj] 10%
SoCal Strategies (R)[220] October 11–13, 2024 692 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 45% 7%
Marketing Resource Group (R)[221] October 7–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 7%[ak] 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[222] October 8–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 45% 2% 7%
Emerson College[223][E] October 5–8, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 44% 8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[224][O]
October 2–8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 46% 1%[al] 4%
Research Co.[225] October 5–7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 46% 41% 1%[am] 12%
Quinnipiac University[226] October 3–7, 2024 1,007 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 48% 2%[an] 1%
Glengariff Group[227][L] October 1–4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 43% 5%[ao] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[228][M] September 27 – October 2, 2024 839 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 39% 6%[ap] 10%
Mitchell Research[229][A] September 30, 2024 709 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 44% 7%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[230] September 28–30, 2024 1,086 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% 6%
RMG Research[231][N] September 24–27, 2024 789 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 43% 2%[aq] 3%
New York Times/Siena College[232] September 21–26, 2024 688 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 42% 12%
688 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 40% 16%
AtlasIntel[233] September 20–25, 2024 918 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 49% 1%[ar] 6%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[234][P] September 19–25, 2024 416 (LV) 47% 44% 3%[as] 5%
50% 46% 4%
Remington Research Group (R)[235][Q] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 43% 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[236][M] September 16–19, 2024 993 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 37% 4%[at] 12%
Suffolk University[237][K] September 16–19, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 43% 2%[au] 10%
UMass/YouGov[238] September 11–19, 2024 650 (LV) ± 4.37% 47% 34% 3%[av] 15%
Emerson College[239][E] September 15–18, 2024 875 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 42% 11%
Tarrance Group (R)[240][H] September 14–18, 2024 607 (LV) ± 4.1% 49% 47% 4%
Morning Consult[191] September 9–18, 2024 1,297 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 37% 12%
Marist College[241] September 12–17, 2024 1,282 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 45% 3%
1,138 (LV) ± 3.4% 52% 45% 2%
Quinnipiac University[242] September 12–16, 2024 905 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 46% 1%[y] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[243][M] September 6–9, 2024 556 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 39% 4%[aw] 14%
Morning Consult[191] August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,368 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% 11%
co/efficient (R)[244][R] September 4–6, 2024 931 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 38% 23%
CBS News/YouGov[245] September 3–6, 2024 1,073 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 41% 2%[aq] 9%
ActiVote[246] August 6 – September 5, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47%
YouGov[247][G] August 23 – September 3, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% 11%
Cygnal (R)[248] August 28 – September 1, 2024 600 (LV) 44% 43% 13%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[249] August 28–30, 2024 1,089 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 45% 5%
Glengariff Group[250][L] August 26–29, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 35% 6%[ax] 15%
CNN/SRSS[251] August 23–29, 2024 708 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 41% 11%[ay] 1%
Emerson College[252][E] August 25–28, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 47% 41% 12%
EPIC-MRA[253][I] August 23–26, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 12%
TIPP Insights (R)[254][S] August 20–22, 2024 1,001 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 35% 5% 13%
741 (LV) 49% 39% 4% 8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)[255][T] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 43% 14%
The Bullfinch Group[256][U] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 48% 38% 15%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[257][O]
August 7–11, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 44% 8%
New York Times/Siena College[258] August 5–8, 2024 619 (RV) ± 4.5% 42% 41% 16%
619 (LV) ± 4.8% 46% 43% 11%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[259][P] July 26 – August 2, 2024 406 (LV) 50% 42% 8%
August 6, 2024 Primary elections held
Glengariff Group[260][L] July 22–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 13%
Fox News[261] July 22–24, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 46% 1%[ag] 3%
Emerson College[262][V] July 22–23, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 41% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[263][W] July 17–18, 2024 650 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 38% 17%
EPIC-MRA[264][I] July 13–17, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 40% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D)[265][X] July 11–12, 2024 568 (RV) 45% 35% 20%
YouGov[266][G] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 39% 2% 12%
852 (LV) 49% 40% 2% 12%
Expedition Strategies[267][Y] June 24 – July 8, 2024 275 (LV) 46% 40% 14%
Remington Research Group (R)[268][Q] June 29 – July 1, 2024 584 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 43% 10%
EPIC-MRA[269] June 21–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% 14%
Emerson College[270][E] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 39% 18%
Mitchell Research[271][A] June 3, 2024 697 (LV) ± 3.7% 36% 33% 31%
Mainstreet Research/FAU[272] May 30–31, 2024 723 (RV) ± 3.6% 41% 41% 4%[az] 14%
636 (LV) ± 3.6% 43% 42% 3%[ba] 12%
Mitchell Research[273][A] May 20–21, 2024 697 (LV) ± 3.7% 40% 36% 24%
KAConsulting (R)[274][Z] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) 43% 37% 20%
Glengariff Group[275][AA] April 24–25, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 37% 23%
Emerson College[276][E] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 40% 19%
Emerson College[277][E] March 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 39% 20%
Mitchell Research[94][A] March 15–16, 2024 627 (LV) 37% 37% 26%
EPIC-MRA[278] February 13–18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 38% 23%
Glengariff Group[279][L] January 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 37% 25%
EPIC-MRA[280] November 10–16, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 37% 24%
EPIC-MRA[281] August 6–11, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 37% 21%
Emerson College[98] August 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 38% 18%
Mitchell Research[282][A] July 11–13, 2023 639 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 38% 17%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Nasser Beydoun vs. Mike Rogers

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Nasser
Beydoun (D)
Mike
Rogers (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group[275][AA] April 24–25, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 36% 39% 25%
Close

Hill Harper vs. Mike Rogers

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Hill
Harper (D)
Mike
Rogers (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group[275][AA] April 24–25, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 36% 38% 26%
Close

Elissa Slotkin vs. Justin Amash

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Justin
Amash (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group[275][AA] April 24–25, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 34% 25%
Emerson College[277][E] March 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 35% 22%
Close

Elissa Slotkin vs. James Craig

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
James
Craig (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group[279][L] January 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 38% 27%
EPIC-MRA[280] November 10–16, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 38% 22%
Emerson College[98] August 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 38% 17%
EPIC-MRA[283] June 8–14, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 39% 21%
Close

Elissa Slotkin vs. Peter Meijer

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Peter
Meijer (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group[275][AA] April 24–25, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 34% 25%
Emerson College[277][E] March 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 34% 24%
Glengariff Group[279][L] January 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 36% 28%
Emerson College[98] August 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 42% 36% 22%
Mitchell Research[282][A] July 11–13, 2023 639 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 28% 31%
Close

Elissa Slotkin vs. Sandy Pensler

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Sandy
Pensler (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group[275][AA] April 24–25, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 34% 26%
Emerson College[277][E] March 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 37% 21%
Close

Elissa Slotkin vs. Nikki Snyder

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Nikki
Snyder (R)
Undecided
Emerson College[98] August 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 36% 20%
Close

Elissa Slotkin vs. John Tuttle

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
John
Tuttle (R)
Undecided
Emerson College[98] August 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 35% 20%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2024 United States Senate election in Michigan[284]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Elissa Slotkin 2,712,686 48.64% −3.62%
Republican Mike Rogers 2,693,680 48.30% +2.54%
Libertarian Joseph Solis-Mullen 56,697 1.02% N/A
Green Douglas Marsh 53,978 0.97% +0.02%
Constitution Dave Stein 41,363 0.74% +0.09%
Natural Law Doug Dern 18,779 0.34% −0.05%
Total votes 5,577,183 100.0%
Democratic hold
Close

By county

More information County, Elissa Slotkin Democratic ...
County[285] Elissa Slotkin
Democratic
Mike Rogers
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Alcona 2,133 28.95344% 5,048 68.52179% 186 2.52477% -2,915 -39.56835% 7,367
Alger 2,047 39.69% 3,002 58.20% 109 2.11% -955 -18.51% 5,158
Allegan 25,193 35.30% 44,205 61.94% 1,972 2.76% -19,012 -26.64% 71,370
Alpena 5,827 34.53% 10,567 62.61% 483 2.86% -4,740 -28.08% 16,877
Antrim 6,178 36.92% 10,136 60.58% 418 2.50% -3,958 -23.66% 16,732
Arenac 2,786 31.17% 5,911 66.13% 241 2.70% -3,125 -34.96% 8,938
Baraga 1,468 34.574% 2,698 63.542% 80 1.884% -1,230 -28.968% 4,246
Barry 12,311 32.2852% 24,678 64.7173% 1,143 2.9975% -12,367 -32.4321% 38,132
Bay 26,313 43.7449% 32,145 53.4405% 1,693 2.8146% -5,832 -9.6956% 60,151
Benzie 5,659 44.423% 6,742 52.924% 338 2.653% -1,083 -8.501% 12,739
Berrien 35,983 43.27% 44,819 53.89% 2,358 2.84% -8,836 -10.62% 83,160
Branch 5,923 28.49% 14,181 68.20% 688 3.31% -8,258 -39.71% 20,792
Calhoun 28,321 42.14% 36,586 54.44% 2,295 3.42% -8,265 -12.30% 67,202
Cass 8,584 31.31% 18,127 66.12% 704 2.57% -9,543 -34.81% 27,415
Charlevoix 6,979 40.15% 9,930 57.12% 475 2.73% -2,951 -16.97% 17,384
Cheboygan 5,445 33.686% 10,259 63.468% 460 2.846% -4,814 -29.782% 16,164
Chippewa 6,689 37.1343% 10,751 59.6847% 573 3.1810% -4,062 -22.5504% 18,013
Clare 5,285 31.10% 11,146 65.59% 562 3.31% -5,861 -34.49% 16,993
Clinton 22,600 46.06% 25,903 52.79% 562 1.15% -3,303 -6.73% 49,545
Crawford 2,696 32.36% 5,360 64.34% 275 3.30% -2,664 -31.98% 8,331
Delta 7,316 34.06% 13,601 63.33% 561 2.61% -6,285 -29.27% 21,478
Dickinson 4,662 30.87% 10,076 66.72% 364 2.41% -5,414 -35.85% 15,102
Eaton 31,453 48.667% 31,627 48.936% 1,549 2.397% -174 -0.269% 64,629
Emmet 9,778 43.136% 12,301 54.266% 589 2.598% -2,523 -11.130% 22,668
Genesee 114,995 52.40% 97,999 44.65% 6,465 2.95% 16,996 7.75% 219,459
Gladwin 4,537 29.8624366485% 10,239 67.3928782992% 417 2.7446850523% -5,702 -37.5304416507% 15,193
Gogebic 3,250 40.37% 4,536 56.35% 264 3.28% -1,286 -15.98% 8,050
Grand Traverse 29,487 47.5428% 30,865 49.7646% 1,670 2.6926% -1,378 -2.222% 62,022
Gratiot 6,648 34.07% 12,281 62.95% 581 2.98% -5,633 -28.88% 19,510
Hillsdale 5,924 24.274% 17,792 72.903% 689 2.823% -11,868 -48.629% 24,405
Houghton 7,650 39.998% 10,993 57.477% 483 2.525% -3,343 -17.479% 19,126
Huron 5,541 29.87% 12,509 67.43% 500 2.70% -6,968 -37.56% 18,550
Ingham 94,679 64.49% 48,083 32.75% 4,054 2.76% 46,596 31.74% 146,816
Ionia 11,253 33.538% 21,241 63.306% 1,059 3.156% -9,988 -29.768% 33,553
Iosco 5,402 35.03% 9,546 61.89% 475 3.08% -4,144 -26.86% 15,423
Iron 2,404 34.82% 4,328 62.69% 172 2.49% -1,924 -27.87% 6,904
Isabella 13,728 45.37% 15,569 51.46% 959 3.17% -1,841 -6.09% 30,256
Jackson 32,200 39.0753% 47,562 57.7174% 2,643 3.2073% -15,362 -18.6421% 82,405
Kalamazoo 81,996 56.97% 57,478 39.93% 4,460 3.10% 24,518 17.04% 143,934
Kalkaska 3,150 27.839% 7,757 68.555% 408 3.606% -4,607 -40.716% 11,315
Kent 187,509 50.93% 170,388 46.28% 10,261 2.79% 17,121 4.65% 368,158
Keweenaw 665 41.956% 882 55.647% 38 2.397% -217 -13.691% 1,585
Lake 2,250 33.25% 4,257 62.91% 260 3.84% -2,007 -29.66% 6,767
Lapeer 16,651 30.46565% 36,578 66.92526% 1,426 2.60909% -19,927 -36.45961% 54,655
Leelanau 9,164 52.20% 8,102 46.15% 289 1.65% 1,062 6.05% 17,555
Lenawee 19,772 36.76% 32,385 60.21% 1,627 3.03% -12,613 -23.45% 53,784
Livingston 50,533 38.5007466553% 78,193 59.5747112425% 2,526 1.92454210222% -27,660 -21.0739645872% 131,252
Luce 771 26.17% 2,096 71.15% 79 2.68% -1,325 -44.98% 2,946
Mackinac 2,613 36.78% 4,326 60.90% 165 2.32% -1,713 -24.12% 7,104
Macomb 217,665 43.64438% 265,883 53.31265% 15,176 3.04297% -48,218 -9.66827% 498,724
Manistee 6,177 40.84% 8,491 56.14% 457 3.02% -2,314 -15.30% 15,125
Marquette 20,548 53.53% 16,915 44.06% 926 2.41% 3,633 9.47% 38,389
Mason 6,739 37.74% 10,613 59.43% 505 2.83% -3,874 -21.69% 17,857
Mecosta 7,462 33.675% 13,950 62.954% 747 3.371% -6,488 -29.279% 22,159
Menominee 4,041 31.81% 8,332 65.59% 330 2.60% -4,291 -33.78% 12,703
Midland 20,666 41.6645% 27,605 55.6541% 1,330 2.6814% -6,939 -13.9896% 49,601
Missaukee 1,934 21.446% 6,828 75.715% 256 2.839% -4,894 -54.269% 9,018
Monroe 32,420 36.44% 54,082 60.79% 2,460 2.77% -21,662 -24.35% 88,962
Montcalm 10,270 29.91727% 22,944 66.83757% 1,114 3.24516% -12,674 -36.92030% 34,328
Montmorency 1,654 26.38% 4,455 71.04% 162 2.58% -2,801 -44.66% 6,271
Muskegon 45,182 48.3551% 45,231 48.4075% 3,025 3.2374% -49 -0.0524% 93,438
Newaygo 8,066 27.97% 19,932 69.12% 839 2.91% -11,866 -41.15% 28,837
Oakland 418,749 54.85% 325,903 42.69% 18,802 2.46% 92,846 12.16% 763,454
Oceana 5,066 34.57% 9,168 62.57% 419 2.86% -4,102 -28.00% 14,653
Ogemaw 3,684 29.92% 8,312 67.52% 315 2.56% -4,628 -37.60% 12,311
Ontonagon 1,279 33.89% 2,387 63.25% 108 2.86% -1,108 -29.36% 3,774
Osceola 3,281 25.22% 9,291 71.43% 436 3.35% -6,010 -46.21% 13,008
Oscoda 1,388 27.366% 3,500 69.006% 184 3.628% -2,112 -41.640% 5,072
Otsego 4,978 31.63% 10,323 65.59% 438 2.78% -5,345 -33.96% 15,739
Ottawa 67,389 38.05% 105,708 59.69% 3,995 2.26% -38,319 -21.64% 177,092
Presque Isle 2,992 34.77% 5,391 62.64% 223 2.59% -2,399 -27.87% 8,606
Roscommon 5,254 33.17% 10,115 63.85% 472 2.98% -4,861 -30.68% 15,841
Saginaw 49,668 48.725% 49,659 48.716% 2,609 2.559% 9 0.009% 101,936
Sanilac 6,056 26.3224236% 16,306 70.8740818% 645 2.8034946% -10,250 -44.5516582% 23,007
Schoolcraft 1,629 33.98% 3,032 63.25% 133 2.77% -1,403 -29.27% 4,794
Shiawassee 15,476 38.59% 23,505 58.61% 1,122 2.80% -8,029 -20.02% 40,103
St. Clair 31,519 33.38% 59,992 63.53% 2,921 3.09% -28,473 -30.15% 94,432
St. Joseph 9,195 31.97% 18,545 64.48% 1,022 3.55% -9,350 -32.51% 28,762
Tuscola 8,754 29.04% 20,503 68.03% 883 2.93% -11,749 -38.99% 30,140
Van Buren 16,798 41.38% 22,570 55.60% 1,228 3.02% -5,772 -14.22% 40,596
Washtenaw 154,214 70.40% 58,207 26.57% 6,648 3.03% 96,007 43.83% 219,069
Wayne 532,029 63.42% 267,761 31.92% 39,069 4.66% 264,268 31.50% 838,859
Wexford 6,063 31.555% 12,457 64.833% 694 3.612% -6,394 -33.278% 19,214
Totals2,712,68648.639%2,693,68048.298%170,8213.063%19,0060.341%5,577,187
Close

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Slotkin won seven of 13 congressional districts, including her own district, which elected a Republican to replace her.[286]

More information District, Slotkin ...
Close

Voter demographics

CNN conducted an exit poll in Michigan for both the U.S. senate race and concurrent presidential race.[287] They surveyed 2,751 voters across the state.[288]

More information Demographic subgroup, Slotkin ...
2024 U.S. Senate election in Michigan voter demographics (CNN)[288]
Demographic subgroup Slotkin Rogers % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 90 6 25
Moderates 60 38 41
Conservatives 8 90 35
Party
Democrats 94 4 31
Republicans 6 93 34
Independents 51 44 35
Gender
Men 43 53 45
Women 53 44 55
Race
White 44 53 78
Black 85 12 11
Latino 40 51 6
Asian N/A N/A 1
All other races 40 50 3
Education
Never attended college 32 66 16
Some college 54 44 29
Associate degree 39 54 17
Bachelor's degree 53 44 21
Advanced degree 59 39 17
Gender by race
White men 39 58 35
White women 49 49 44
Black men 79 18 5
Black women 88 8 7
Latino men N/A N/A 3
Latina women N/A N/A 3
All other races 43 50 4
Area type
Urban 65 30 21
Suburban 46 51 58
Rural 40 58 21
Income
<$30,000 53 44 11
$30,000–$49,999 51 44 17
$50,000–$99,999 49 50 31
$100,000–$199,999 47 50 30
≥$200,000 46 53 11
Most important issue
Democracy 80 18 34
Economy 23 73 27
Abortion 63 36 17
Immigration 4 94 12
Foreign policy N/A N/A 4
Biden job approval
Strongly approve 98 2 17
Somewhat approve 89 6 24
Somewhat disapprove 56 37 11
Strongly disapprove 7 90 46
Abortion should be:
Legal in all cases 85 13 33
Legal in most cases 49 47 35
Illegal in most cases 10 88 24
Illegal in all cases N/A N/A 5
Democracy in the United States is:
Very threatened 48 49 34
Somewhat threatened 47 52 37
Somewhat secure 56 42 20
Very secure 39 53 7
First time voting?
Yes N/A N/A 5
No 49 48 95
U.S. support for Israel is:
Too strong 63 33 29
Not strong enough 17 80 27
About right 59 39 37
Union household?
Yes 58 37 23
No 45 53 77
Gretchen Whitmer job approval
Approve 87 11 49
Disapprove 7 89 48
Close

Notes

  1. Michigan Professional Union and Local 412
  2. Disqualified candidate
  3. $462,916 of this total was self-funded by Harper
  4. Withdrawn candidate
  5. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. "Other candidates & undecided" with 26%
  7. Zack Burns and Jacquise Purifoy with 3%; Pamela Pugh with 1%; "Someone Else" with 22%
  8. Numbered as the 10th from 2021 to 2023
  9. Numbered as the 4th from 2015–2023
  10. "Someone else" with 3%
  11. "Someone else" with 6%
  12. Michael Hoover with 1%; Sherry O'Donnell, Bensson Samuel, Sharon Savage, Alexandria Taylor, and J. D. Wilson with 0%
  13. Nikki Snyder with 6%; Michael Hoover with 3%; Ezra Scott, Alexandria Taylor, and John Tuttle with 1%; "Other" with 39%
  14. Calculated by taking the dƒifference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  15. "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  16. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  17. Solis-Mullen (L) with 1%
  18. "Another candidate" with 1%
  19. "Another candidate" with 2%
  20. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  21. Dern (NL), Marsh (G), and Stein (UST) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%; "I did not vote for this office" with 1%
  22. "Third party candidate" with 6%; "Did not or would not vote" with 1%
  23. "Other" with 7%; "Neither" with 2%
  24. "Refused" with 2%; Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Stein (UST) with 1%; Dern (NL) with <1%
  25. "Refused" with 1%
  26. Solis-Mullen (L) with 2%
  27. "Another Candidate" with 2%; Solis-Mullen (L), Stein (C), and "Did Note Vote for Senator" with 1%
  28. "Refused" with 2%
  29. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Dern (NL), Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Stein (UST) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  30. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  31. "Some other candidate" and "Would not vote" with 2% each
  32. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  33. "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  34. Not appearing on ballot
  35. Frizzell (I),[ah] Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L) & Stein (T) with 1%; Dern (NL) with 0%
  36. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%, Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Stein (UST) with 1%
  37. Solis-Mullen (L) with 3%; Dern (NL), Marsh (G), and Stein (UST) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  38. "Other" with 1%
  39. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  40. "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  41. Solis-Mullen (L) with 2%; Marsh (G) with 1%; Stein (C) with 1%; Dern (NLP) with 1%
  42. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Marsh (G) with 1%; Solis-Mullen (L) with 1%; Stein (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  43. "Someone else" with 2%
  44. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  45. "Someone else" with 3%
  46. Marsh (G) with 2%; "Won't vote" with 2%
  47. Marsh (G) and Solis-Mullen (L) with 1%; Stein (UST) and Dern (NL) with <1%
  48. Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Dern (NL) with 1%
  49. Solis-Mullen (L), Marsh (G), Stein (C), and Dern (NLP) with 1%
  50. Solis-Mullen (L) with 3%; Marsh (G) with 2%; Stein (C) with 1%; Dern (NLP) with 0%
  51. "Other" with 7%; "Neither" with 4%
  52. "Another candidate" with 4%
  53. "Another candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by the Michigan Information and Research Service
  2. Poll sponsored by the Michigan Information and Research Service and the Northern Michigan Chamber Alliance
  3. Poll sponsored by the Voter Protection Project, who have not publicly endorsed any candidate; however, they sent out a press release that describes Elissa Slotkin as "the strongest candidate" in the race.[97]
  4. Poll sponsored by Rogers's campaign
  5. Poll sponsored by The Hill
  6. Poll sponsored by Michigan News Source
  7. Poll sponsored by Rogers' campaign
  8. Poll sponsored by the Detroit Free Press
  9. Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  10. Poll sponsored by USA Today
  11. Poll sponsored by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV
  12. Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  13. Poll sponsored by Napolitan News
  14. Poll sponsored by AARP
  15. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans
  16. Poll sponsored by Americans for IVF
  17. Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  18. Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  19. Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  20. Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  21. Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats
  22. Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party
  23. Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  24. Poll sponsored by Vapor Technology Association
  25. Poll sponsored by the Detroit Regional Chamber

References

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