Wikiwand AI

2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. This election coincided with a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary.[1]

Quick facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
← 2012
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
2024 →
Turnout61.2% Decrease
 
Nominee Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,472,914 1,184,885
Percentage 55.36% 44.53%
Baldwin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Vukmir:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Tammy Baldwin

U.S. senators

Organizations

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) 510,812 99.64%
Write-in 1,848 0.36%
Total votes 512,660 100%
Close

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Kevin Nicholson

Federal officials

U.S. senators

State legislators

Organizations

Newspapers

Leah Vukmir

Federal officials

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kevin
Nicholson		 Leah
Vukmir		 Other Undecided
Emerson College[85] July 26–28, 2018 238 ± 6.5% 35% 35% 3% 27%
Marist College[86] July 15–19, 2018 355 ± 6.1% 38% 28% <1% 34%
Hodas & Associates (R)[87][A] July 12–16, 2018 600 ± 3.0% 33% 20% – 47%
Marquette University[88] July 11–15, 2018 266 ± 7.0% 32% 34% 2% 30%
Marquette University[89] June 13–17, 2018 274 ± 6.9% 37% 32% 1% 30%
Hodas & Associates (R)[90][A] June 7–12, 2018 600 ± 3.0% 28% 14% – 58%
The Tarrance Group (R)[91][B] May 31 – June 4, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 29% 36% – 35%
American Viewpoint (R)[92][C] May 29–31, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 32% 30% – –
Hodas & Associates (R)[93][A] April 30 – May 3, 2018 240 ± 6.0% 46% 15% – –
WPA Intelligence (R)[94][D] April 2–4, 2018 1,028 ± 3.1% 45% 27% – 28%
Marquette University[95] February 25 – March 1, 2018 243 ± 8.2% 28% 19% 2% 49%
WPA Intelligence (R)[96][D] January 22–23, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 48% 9% 1%[a] 42%
WPA Intelligence (R)[96][D] January 2–3, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 27% 10% 2%[b] 60%
WPA Intelligence (R)[97][D] December 6–7, 2017 1,004 ± 3.1% 30% 23% 2%[b] 45%
Close
Notes
  1. [a]
    John Schiess 1%
  2. [b]
    John Schiess 2%
Hypothetical polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 David
Clarke		 Sean
Duffy		 Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R)[98] February 15–16, 2017 300 ± 5.7% 32% 26% 42%
Close

Results

Results by county
  Vukmir
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  Nicholson
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Leah Vukmir 217,230 48.90%
Republican Kevin Nicholson 191,276 43.06%
Republican George Lucia 18,786 4.23%
Republican Griffin Jones 8,699 1.96%
Republican Charles Barman 7,959 1.79%
Write-in 303 0.07%
Total votes 444,253 100%
Close

General election

Endorsements

Leah Vukmir (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Tammy Baldwin (D)

Former U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Debates

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[124] Likely D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[125] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[126] Likely D November 5, 2018
Fox News[127][a] Likely D November 5, 2018
CNN[128] Likely D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[129] Lean D November 5, 2018
Close
Notes
  1. [a]
    The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

%support01020304050602018/03/162018/08/192018/10/072018/11/3BaldwinVukmirOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2018 United States S...
View source data.
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Tammy
Baldwin (D)		 Leah
Vukmir (R)		 Other Undecided
Research Co.[130] November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 50% 39% – 11%
Emerson College[131] October 29–31, 2018 604 ± 4.1% 53% 44% – 3%
Marquette University[132] October 24–28, 2018 1,154 LV ± 3.2% 54% 43% – 1%
1,400 RV ± 3.0% 52% 42% – 3%
Ipsos[133] October 12–18, 2018 1,193 ± 3.0% 54% 39% 3% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[134][E] October 10–11, 2018 816 ± 3.4% 52% 42% – 6%
Marquette University[135] October 3–7, 2018 799 LV ± 3.9% 53% 43% – 2%
1,000 RV ± 3.6% 53% 42% – 3%
Marist College[136] September 30 – October 3, 2018 571 LV ± 4.8% 54% 40% 1% 5%
781 RV ± 4.1% 53% 40% 1% 6%
Ipsos[133] September 14–24, 2018 1,109 ± 3.0% 52% 39% 4% 5%
Marquette University[137] September 12–16, 2018 614 LV ± 4.4% 53% 42% – 2%
800 RV ± 4.0% 52% 40% – 4%
Suffolk University[138] August 18–24, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42% – 8%
Marquette University[139] August 15–19, 2018 601 LV ± 4.5% 49% 47% – 2%
800 RV ± 4.0% 51% 43% – 4%
Emerson College[85] July 26–28, 2018 632 ± 4.2% 50% 36% 4% 10%
Marist College[86] July 15–19, 2018 906 ± 3.8% 55% 38% 1% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[140] June 11 – July 2, 2018 968 ± 4.5% 56% 40% – 4%
Marquette University[89] June 13–17, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 49% 40% – 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[141][E] March 15–16, 2018 910 ± 3.3% 51% 39% – 10%
Close
Hypothetical polling

with Kevin Nicholson

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Tammy
Baldwin (D)		 Kevin
Nicholson (R)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College[85] July 26–28, 2018 632 ± 4.2% 49% 40% 3% 9%
Marist College[86] July 15–19, 2018 906 ± 3.8% 54% 39% 1% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[140] June 11 – July 2, 2018 968 ± 4.5% 55% 42% – 3%
Marquette University[89] June 13–17, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 50% 39% – 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[141][E] March 15–16, 2018 910 ± 3.3% 51% 38% – 11%
Close

with generic Republican

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Tammy
Baldwin (D)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[142] February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,668 ± 3.6% 49% 46% 5%
Close

with David Clarke

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Tammy
Baldwin (D)		 David
Clarke (R)		 Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R)[98] February 9–10, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 49% 35% 2% 14%
Close

with Sean Duffy

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Tammy
Baldwin (D)		 Sean
Duffy (R)		 Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R)[98] February 9–10, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 49% 36% 2% 13%
Close

Results

Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race, Baldwin ended up winning by over 10 percentage points, which was the highest margin of victory for a Wisconsin Democratic statewide candidate in 2018. She ran up the margins in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, but also won in western Wisconsin, Green Bay and most of the counties bordering Illinois, including Racine, Rock, and Kenosha counties.[143] This was the largest margin of victory for the Democrats in a major Wisconsin statewide campaign (presidential, senate, gubernatorial) since 2008.

More information Party, Candidate ...
United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018[144]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) 1,472,914 55.36% +3.95%
Republican Leah Vukmir 1,184,885 44.53% −1.33%
Write-in 2,964 0.11% N/A
Total votes 2,660,763 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
Close

By county

More information County, Tammy Baldwin Democratic ...
County Tammy Baldwin
Democratic		 Leah Vukmir
Republican		 Write-ins Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 4,537 48.3% 4,854 51.6% 8 0.1% -317 -3.3% 9,399
Ashland 4,533 65.8% 2,351 34.1% 8 0.1% 2,182 31.7% 6,892
Barron 8,571 46.3% 9,911 53.6% 11 0.1% -1,340 -7.3% 18,493
Bayfield 5,541 63.1% 3,233 36.8% 1 0.0% 2,308 26.3% 8,775
Brown 59,132 51.4% 55,750 48.5% 184 0.2% 3,382 2.9% 115,066
Buffalo 2,945 49.8% 2,968 50.2% 4 0.1% -23 -0.4% 5,917
Burnett 3,239 43.0% 4,289 57.0% 0 0.0% -1,050 -14.0% 7,528
Calumet 10,741 45.6% 12,822 54.4% 0 0.0% -2,081 -8.8% 23,563
Chippewa 13,798 49.9% 13,830 50.1% 1 0.0% -32 -0.2% 27,629
Clark 5,084 43.7% 6,558 56.3% 2 0.0% -1,474 -12.6% 11,644
Columbia 15,230 56.5% 11,674 43.3% 36 0.1% 3,556 13.2% 26,940
Crawford 3,852 58.8% 2,703 41.2% 0 0.0% 1,149 17.6% 6,555
Dane 228,050 77.6% 65,515 22.3% 414 0.1% 162,535 55.3% 293,979
Dodge 16,007 42.7% 21,482 57.3% 1 0.0% -5,475 -14.6% 37,490
Door 9,442 55.7% 7,494 44.2% 11 0.1% 1,948 11.5% 16,947
Douglas 11,689 62.8% 6,925 37.2% 8 0.0% 4,764 25.6% 18,622
Dunn 9,743 53.0% 8,623 46.9% 1 0.0% 1,120 6.1% 18,367
Eau Claire 29,614 60.9% 18,957 39.0% 71 0.1% 10,657 21.9% 48,642
Florence 729 33.6% 1,438 66.4% 0 0.0% -709 -32.8% 2,167
Fond du Lac 19,065 42.7% 25,496 57.2% 41 0.1% -6,431 -14.5% 44,602
Forest 1,879 47.6% 2,062 52.3% 3 0.1% -183 -4.7% 3,944
Grant 10,554 54.3% 8,860 45.6% 6 0.0% 1,694 8.7% 19,420
Green 10,294 60.4% 6,732 39.5% 11 0.1% 3,562 20.9% 17,037
Green Lake 3,222 39.7% 4,893 60.3% 2 0.0% -1,671 -20.6% 8,117
Iowa 7,270 65.4% 3,835 34.5% 9 0.1% 3,435 30.9% 11,114
Iron 1,459 47.6% 1,605 52.4% 0 0.0% -146 -4.8% 3,064
Jackson 4,370 54.8% 3,611 45.2% 0 0.0% 759 9.6% 7,981
Jefferson 18,055 47.6% 19,809 52.3% 47 0.1% -1,754 -4.7% 37,911
Juneau 4,658 46.1% 5,429 53.8% 9 0.1% -771 -7.7% 10,096
Kenosha 38,296 56.7% 29,181 43.2% 112 0.2% 9,115 13.5% 67,589
Kewaunee 4,287 45.3% 5,158 54.6% 9 0.1% -871 -9.3% 9,454
La Crosse 35,731 62.8% 21,160 37.2% 0 0.0% 14,571 25.6% 56,891
Lafayette 3,592 55.3% 2,900 44.7% 1 0.0% 692 10.6% 6,493
Langlade 3,889 42.6% 5,239 57.4% 0 0.0% -1,350 -14.8% 9,128
Lincoln 6,463 48.3% 6,901 51.6% 15 0.1% -438 -3.3% 13,379
Manitowoc 16,541 46.8% 18,795 53.1% 37 0.1% -2,254 -6.3% 35,373
Marathon 29,084 47.1% 32,661 52.8% 68 0.1% -3,577 -5.7% 61,813
Marinette 7,520 43.6% 9,731 56.4% 1 0.0% -2,211 -12.8% 17,252
Marquette 3,337 46.8% 3,791 53.1% 6 0.1% -454 -6.3% 7,134
Menominee 896 80.3% 220 19.7% 0 0.0% 676 60.6% 1,116
Milwaukee 280,426 71.4% 111,684 28.4% 748 0.2% 168,742 43.0% 392,858
Monroe 8,151 48.7% 8,559 51.2% 21 0.1% -408 -2.5% 16,731
Oconto 7,042 40.4% 10,392 59.6% 15 0.1% -408 -19.2% 16,731
Oneida 9,338 48.0% 10,112 51.9% 23 0.1% -774 -3.9% 19,473
Outagamie 41,618 50.2% 41,354 49.8% 2 0.0% 264 0.4% 82,974
Ozaukee 21,464 42.1% 29,480 57.8% 66 0.1% -8,016 -15.7% 51,010
Pepin 1,529 49.2% 1,578 50.8% 0 0.0% -49 1.6% 3,107
Pierce 9,216 52.8% 8,247 47.2% 3 0.0% 969 5.6% 17,466
Polk 8,299 44.8% 10,245 55.2% 0 0.0% -1,946 -10.4% 18,544
Portage 20,170 58.1% 14,510 41.8% 45 0.1% 5,660 16.3% 34,725
Price 3,136 47.2% 3,515 52.8% 0 0.0% -379 -5.6% 6,651
Racine 45,397 52.3% 41,213 47.5% 140 0.2% 4,184 4.8% 86,750
Richland 4,000 57.3% 2,980 42.7% 6 0.1% 1,020 14.6% 6,986
Rock 42,616 62.7% 25,322 37.2% 73 0.1% 17,294 25.5% 68,011
Rusk 2,654 43.9% 3,381 55.9% 11 0.2% -727 -12.0% 6,046
St. Croix 18,765 47.1% 21,069 52.9% 30 0.1% -2,304 -5.8% 39,864
Sauk 16,960 58.8% 11,866 41.2% 0 0.0% 5,094 17.6% 28,826
Sawyer 3,938 48.6% 4,159 51.3% 3 0.0% -221 -2.7% 8,100
Shawano 7,414 41.5% 10,438 58.5% 0 0.0% -3,024 -17.0% 17,852
Sheboygan 24,183 45.7% 28,667 54.2% 75 0.1% -4,484 -8.5% 52,925
Taylor 3,028 37.7% 5,005 62.3% 2 0.0% -1,977 -24.6% 8,035
Trempealeau 6,526 53.6% 5,633 46.3% 9 0.1% 893 7.3% 12,168
Vernon 7,495 57.8% 5,459 42.1% 5 0.0% 2,036 15.7% 12,969
Vilas 5,308 42.5% 7,166 57.4% 17 0.1% -1,858 -14.9% 12,491
Walworth 20,299 44.9% 24,844 54.9% 73 0.2% -4,545 -10.0% 45,216
Washburn 3,664 46.6% 4,190 53.3% 4 0.1% -526 -6.7% 7,858
Washington 23,072 32.9% 47,102 67.1% 1 0.0% -24,030 -34.2% 70,175
Waukesha 84,147 38.1% 136,190 61.7% 293 0.1% -52,043 -23.6% 220,630
Waupaca 9,509 42.6% 12,792 57.3% 15 0.1% -3,283 -14.7% 22,316
Waushara 4,434 42.1% 6,106 57.9% 0 0.0% -1,672 -15.8% 10,540
Winnebago 40,185 53.2% 35,282 46.7% 118 0.2% 4,903 6.5% 75,585
Wood 15,992 48.6% 16,899 51.3% 28 0.1% -907 -2.7% 32,919
Totals1,472,91455.4%1,184,88544.5%2,9640.1%288,02910.9%2,660,763
Close

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

As a result of partisan gerrymandering, Baldwin only won three out of the state's eight Congressional districts, despite winning the election comfortably by over ten percentage points.[145]

More information District, Baldwin ...
District Baldwin Vukmir Representative
1st 49.6% 50.3% Bryan Steil
2nd 73% 26% Mark Pocan
3rd 56% 44% Ron Kind
4th 79% 21% Gwen Moore
5th 43% 57% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 47% 52% Glenn Grothman
7th 48% 52% Sean Duffy
8th 48% 51% Mike Gallagher
Close

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    Poll sponsored by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC that supported Nicholson.
  2. [B]
    Poll sponsored by Wisconsin Next PAC, a conservative super PAC that supported Vukmir.
  3. [C]
    Poll sponsored by Vukmir's campaign.
  4. [D]
    Poll sponsored by Nicholson's campaign.
  5. [E]
    Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care.


References

External links

Related Articles

Timelines

Top Qs

Fact Checks