2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a third term by a narrow 0.85% margin, defeating Republican nominee Eric Hovde.[1]
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November 5, 2024
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| Turnout | 3,387,839 60.7%  | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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   Baldwin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Hovde: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Third-party candidates Phil Anderson and Thomas Leager were seen as potential spoiler candidates for Hovde in a state that had voted for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.[2] This was the first time that Wisconsin voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Gaylord Nelson was reelected as Republican Richard Nixon carried the state in 1968. The closest of Baldwin's three Senate victories, the race held similarities to Republican Ron Johnson's narrow win in 2022, down to the percentage and raw vote margin by which the incumbents won. It was the closest Senate race in the state since 1914 and the closest election ever for this seat.
Baldwin won only about 4,000 votes more than Kamala Harris, while Hovde received about 55,000 fewer votes than Trump. This likely means that some Trump voters voted for Baldwin or a third-party candidate. While almost all of the state's counties swung Republican compared to Baldwin's 2018 victory, Baldwin improved in Waukesha and Ozaukee.
The primary election took place on August 13, 2024.[3] The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[4]
Background
No Republican has won this Senate seat since Joseph McCarthy in 1952. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin was first elected in 2012, defeating former governor Tommy Thompson by 6 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2018 by 11 percentage points.[5][6]
The race was considered to be slightly favorable to Baldwin, despite Wisconsin's nearly even partisan lean, with most polls showing Baldwin to be the favorite to win.[7][8][9][10]
Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since there are both a Republican and a Democratic senator representing the state. Wisconsin was also a top battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in 2016, and then the Democratic candidate in 2020, both by less than 1% and only a plurality.[citation needed]
Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. Republicans also control the state's other Senate seat. However, Democrats had seen success in statewide races, including in 2022, where incumbent governor Tony Evers overperformed expectations and won reelection to a second term, despite polls showing his Republican challenger as the slight favorite.[11][12]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. senator[13]
Endorsements
Tammy Baldwin
U.S. representatives
- Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)[14]
Governors
- Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan (2019–present)[15]
Individuals
- Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer[16]
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[17]
Labor unions
- Actors' Equity Association[18]
- Association of Flight Attendants[19]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 2150[20]
- United Auto Workers[21]
- United Steelworkers District 7[22]
- Wisconsin AFL-CIO[20]
Organizations
- 314 Action[23]
- Bend the Arc[24]
- Council for a Livable World[25]
- EMILY's List[1]
- End Citizens United[26]
- Fair Wisconsin PAC[27]
- Feminist Majority PAC[28]
- Giffords[14]
- Human Rights Campaign[29]
- J Street PAC[30]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[31]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[32]
- League of Conservation Voters[33]
- LGBTQ Victory Fund[34]
- LPAC[35]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[36]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[37]
- National Women's Political Caucus[38]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[39]
- NextGen America PAC[17]
- People for the American Way[40]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[41]
- Population Connection Action Fund[42]
- Stonewall Democratic Club[43]
- Swing Left[44]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tammy Baldwin (D) | $36,476,704 | $30,268,932 | $6,349,965 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[45] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | 639,049 | 99.81% | |
| Write-in | 1,198 | 0.19% | ||
| Total votes | 640,247 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Charles Barman, retired construction superintendent and perennial candidate[48]
- Rejani Raveendran, chair of University of Wisconsin–Stevens Point College Republicans[49]
Withdrew
- Stacey Klein, Trempealeau County supervisor[50] (ran for state senate)[51]
- Patrick Schaefer-Wicke, retired U.S. Army Reserve sergeant major[50]
Declined
- David Clarke, former Milwaukee County Sheriff (2002-2017)[52]
- Mike Gallagher, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 8th congressional district (2017–2024)[53]
- Scott Mayer, staffing executive and former Indy Racing League driver[54]
- Bryan Steil, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (2019–present)[55] (ran for re-election, endorsed Hovde)[56][57]
- Tom Tiffany, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (2020–present) (ran for re-election, endorsed Hovde)[58][57]
- Scott Walker, former governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019)[59] (endorsed Hovde)[60]
Endorsements
Eric Hovde
Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, former president of the United States (2017–2021)[61]
U.S. senators
- Ron Johnson, U.S. senator from Wisconsin (2011–present)[62]
U.S. representatives
- Scott Fitzgerald, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 5th congressional district (2021–present)[57]
- Glenn Grothman, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 6th congressional district (2015–present)[57]
- Bryan Steil, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (2019–present)[57]
- Tom Tiffany, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (2020–present)[57]
- Derrick Van Orden, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district (2023–present)[57]
Statewide officials
- Scott Walker, former governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019)[60]
Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Eric Hovde (R) | $16,788,769[a] | $13,609,814 | $3,178,955 |
| Rejani Raveendran (R) | $39,888[b] | $38,695 | $1,192 |
| Stacey Klein (R)[c] | $33,712 | $33,712 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[67] | |||
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
David Clarke |
Mike Gallagher |
Eric Hovde |
Scott Mayer |
Tom Tiffany |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[68] | December 11–12, 2023 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | – | 7% | 6% | – | 36% |
| 51% | – | 10% | – | – | 39% | ||||
| 52% | – | – | 6% | – | 42% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[69] | June 5–6, 2023 | 507 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 20% | 3% | – | 10% | 27% |
| 45% | 26% | – | – | – | 29% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Eric Hovde | 477,197 | 86.21% | |
| Republican | Charles Barman | 40,990 | 7.40% | |
| Republican | Rejani Raveendran | 34,612 | 6.25% | |
| Write-in | 748 | 0.14% | ||
| Total votes | 553,547 | 100.0% | ||
Independent candidates
Candidates
Declared
- Phil Anderson (Disrupt The Corruption), realtor, former chair of the Wisconsin Libertarian Party, and perennial candidate[70][71]
- Thomas Leager (America First), lobbyist[72]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[73] | Tossup | October 8, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[74] | Tilt D | September 26, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[75] | Lean D | September 25, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[76] | Tossup | September 26, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[77] | Lean D | August 9, 2024 |
| CNalysis[78] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
| RealClearPolitics[79] | Tossup | September 15, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[80] | Lean D | October 23, 2024 |
| 538[81] | Lean D | October 24, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
Eric Hovde (R)
U.S. senators
- John Thune, Senate Minority Whip (2021–2025) from South Dakota (2005–present)[82]
Individuals
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent candidate for president in 2024[83]
- Ben Shapiro, editor emeritus of The Daily Wire[84]
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Executive branch officials
- Kamala Harris, vice president of the United States (2021–2025)[85]
Individuals
Organizations
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Baldwin | Hovde | |||||
| 1 | October 18, 2024 | WMTV | Jill Geisler | YouTube | P | P |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Eric Hovde (R) |
Undecided [e] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[7] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.3% | 47.1% | 3.6% | Baldwin +2.2 |
| Real Clear Politics[8] | October 16 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.9% | 47.1% | 4.0% | Baldwin +1.8 |
| 270toWin[9] | October 23 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.9% | 46.9% | 4.2% | Baldwin +2.0 |
| TheHill/DDHQ[10] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.6% | 47.9% | 3.5% | Baldwin +0.7 |
| Average | 48.9% | 47.3% | 3.8% | Baldwin+1.6 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Eric Hovde (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[88] | November 3–4, 2024 | 869 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 1%[f] | 2% |
| Research Co.[89] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 47% | 2%[g] | 3% |
| Patriot Polling (R)[90] | November 1–3, 2024 | 835 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 49% | – | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[91] | November 1–3, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | – | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[92] | November 1–2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 48% | 3% | 2% |
| AtlasIntel[93] | November 1–2, 2024 | 728 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | 1%[f] | 2% |
| Emerson College[94][A] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 45% | – | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[95] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 46% | – | 5% |
| 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 46% | – | 4% | ||
| Mainstreet Research/FAU[96] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 786 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | 3%[h] | 4% |
| 798 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 45% | 3%[h] | 5% | ||
| Morning Consult[97] | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 541 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| AtlasIntel[98] | October 30–31, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 49% | 1%[f] | 1% |
| YouGov[99][B] | October 25–31, 2024 | 863 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[100] | October 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 5% |
| ActiVote[101] | October 6–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – | – |
| TIPP Insights (R)[102][C] | October 28–30, 2024 | 831 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 46% | 1% | 4% |
| 1,038 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 43% | 3% | 7% | ||
| Marist College[103] | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,330 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% |
| 1,444 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% | ||
| Echelon Insights[104] | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 48% | 1%[i] | 2% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[105][D] | October 28–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[106] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,470 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 2%[j] | 2% |
| CNN/SSRS[107] | October 23–28, 2024 | 736 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 47% | 4%[k] | – |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[108] | October 26–27, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 1% | 2% |
| Marquette University[109] | October 16–24, 2024 | 753 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 47% | 3%[l] | 1% |
| 48% | 45% | – | 7% | ||||
| 51%[m] | 49% | – | – | ||||
| 834 (RV) | 50% | 46% | 3%[l] | 1% | |||
| 48% | 44% | – | 8% | ||||
| 51%[m] | 49% | – | – | ||||
| Suffolk University[110][E] | October 20–23, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 44% | 4%[n] | 7% |
| Emerson College[111][F] | October 21–22, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 48% | 1%[o] | 3% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[112][G] | October 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 1%[p] | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[113] | October 17–21, 2024 | 1,108 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 48% | 2%[q] | 1% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[114] | October 18–20, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 49% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[115][H] | October 16–18, 2024 | 622 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 44% | 4%[r] | 8% |
| The Bullfinch Group[116] | October 11–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 7% |
| AtlasIntel[117] | October 12–17, 2024 | 932 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 2%[j] | 3% |
| RMG Research[118][I] | October 10–16, 2024 | 787 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 46% | 3%[s] | 2% |
| 50%[m] | 47% | 1%[t] | 2% | ||||
| Morning Consult[97] | October 6–15, 2024 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| Patriot Polling (R)[119] | October 12–14, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | – | – |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[120] | October 8–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 3% |
| Emerson College[121][A] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | – | 5% |
| Research Co.[122] | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 43% | 1%[u] | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[123] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,073 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 2%[v] | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124][H] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | 4%[r] | 7% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[125] | September 28–30, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| ActiVote[126] | August 29 – September 29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – | – |
| New York Times/Siena College[127] | September 21–26, 2024 | 680 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| 680 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% | ||
| Marquette University[128] | September 18–26, 2024 | 798 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 45% | 2%[w] | 1% |
| 48% | 43% | – | 9% | ||||
| 53%[m] | 46% | – | 1% | ||||
| 882 (RV) | 51% | 45% | 2%[w] | 1% | |||
| 48% | 43% | – | 9% | ||||
| 53%[m] | 46% | – | 1% | ||||
| AtlasIntel[129] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 3%[x] | 2% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[130][J] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 4%[y] | 5% |
| 49% | 47% | – | 4% | ||||
| RMG Research[131][I] | September 17–23, 2024 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 44% | 2%[z] | 4% |
| 51%[m] | 45% | – | 4% | ||||
| Remington Research Group (R)[132][K] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[133][H] | September 16–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 41% | 4%[aa] | 8% |
| Emerson College[134][A] | September 15–18, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
| MassINC Polling Group[135][L] | September 12–18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 44% | 1%[ab] | 2% |
| Morning Consult[97] | September 9–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| Marist College[136] | September 12–17, 2024 | 1,312 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 46% | – | 1% |
| 1,194 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[137] | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 47% | 2%[v] | 1% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[138][M] |
September 11–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[139][H] | September 6–9, 2024 | 626 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 39% | 4%[r] | 12% |
| Morning Consult[97] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 638 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
| co/efficient (R)[140][N] | September 4–6, 2024 | 917 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| CBS News/YouGov[141] | September 3–6, 2024 | 944 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | 2%[z] | 4% |
| Marquette University[142] | August 28 – September 5, 2024 | 822 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 45% | 4%[ac] | 1% |
| 48% | 44% | – | 8% | ||||
| 52%[m] | 48% | – | 1% | ||||
| 738 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 51% | 45% | 4%[ac] | 1% | ||
| 49% | 44% | – | 7% | ||||
| 52%[m] | 47% | – | 1% | ||||
| YouGov[143][B] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[144] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 44% | – | 6% |
| CNN/SRSS[145] | August 23–29, 2024 | 976 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 45% | 3%[ad] | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[146][H] | August 25–28, 2024 | 672 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 41% | 3%[ae] | 11% |
| Emerson College[147][A] | August 25–28, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 48% | – | 3% |
| BK Strategies[148][O] | August 19–21, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| Fabrizio Ward[149][P] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | – | 9% |
| TIPP Insights (R)[150][C] | August 12–14, 2024 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
| 976 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% | ||
| The Bullfinch Group[151][Q] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 41% | – | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[152] | August 5–8, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% | ||
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[153][J] | July 26 – August 2, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| Marquette University[154] | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | ||||
| 47% | 39% | – | 14% | ||||
| 53%[m] | 46% | – | 1% | ||||
| 50% | 44% | 4%[af] | 1% | ||||
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 41% | – | 11% | ||
| 52%[m] | 47% | – | 1% | ||||
| 51% | 45% | 4%[af] | 1% | ||||
| Fox News[155] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 43% | – | 3% |
| Emerson College[156][R] | July 22–23, 2024 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| Joe Biden withdraws from the Presidential Race | |||||||
| YouGov[157][B] | July 4–12, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 43% | 1%[ag] | 7% |
| 831 (LV) | – | 50% | 44% | 1%[ag] | 5% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[158][S] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
| North Star Opinion Research[159][T] | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[160][D] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 490 (RV) | – | 50% | 38% | – | 12% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[161][M] |
June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 45% | – | 6% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[162][K] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 593 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | – | 3% |
| Marquette University[163] | June 12–20, 2024 | 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 38% | – | 17% |
| 52%[m] | 47% | – | – | ||||
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% | ||
| 52%[m] | 47% | – | – | ||||
| Emerson College[164][A] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU[165] | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 43% | 38% | 8%[ah] | 11% |
| 290 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 47% | 39% | 7%[ai] | 7% | ||
| KAConsulting (R)[166][U] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[167][J] | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 37% | – | 14% |
| New York Times/Siena College[168] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 10% |
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[169] | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 42% | 2%[v] | 2% |
| Emerson College[170][A] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
| CBS News/YouGov[171] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,245 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 41% | 3%[aj] | 8% |
| Marquette University[172] | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 47% | – | 1% |
| 736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 50% | – | – | ||
| Emerson College[173] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | – | 14% |
| Emerson College[174] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
Hypothetical polling
Tammy Baldwin vs. Mike Gallagher
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Tammy Baldwin vs. generic opponent
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of November 25, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tammy Baldwin (D) | $59,479,375 | $59,274,659 | $346,908 |
| Eric Hovde (R) | $31,958,427[ak] | $31,600,367 | $358,060 |
| Phil Anderson (DTC) | $52,738 | $52,540 | $198 |
| Thomas Leager (AF) | $23,856 | $23,721 | $175 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[45] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | 1,672,777 | 49.33% | −6.03% | |
| Republican | Eric Hovde | 1,643,996 | 48.48% | +3.95% | |
| Disrupt the Corruption | Phil Anderson | 42,315 | 1.25% | N/A | |
| America First | Thomas Leager | 28,751 | 0.85% | N/A | |
| Independent | John Schiess (write-in) | 26 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 2,922 | 0.09% | −0.02% | ||
| Total votes | 3,390,787 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| County[176] | Tammy Baldwin Democratic |
Eric Hovde Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 4,806 | 37.67% | 7,551 | 59.18% | 402 | 3.15% | −2,745 | −21.51% | 12,759 |
| Ashland | 4,775 | 54.02% | 3,844 | 43.49% | 220 | 2.49% | 931 | 10.53% | 8,839 |
| Barron | 9,352 | 35.24% | 16,462 | 62.02% | 727 | 2.74% | −7,110 | −26.79% | 26,541 |
| Bayfield | 6,260 | 56.05% | 4,697 | 42.05% | 212 | 1.90% | 1,563 | 13.99% | 11,169 |
| Brown | 67,789 | 45.84% | 76,722 | 51.88% | 3,360 | 2.27% | −8,933 | −6.04% | 147,871 |
| Buffalo | 2,913 | 36.33% | 4,898 | 61.08% | 208 | 2.59% | −1,985 | −24.75% | 8,019 |
| Burnett | 3,730 | 34.76% | 6,745 | 62.86% | 256 | 2.39% | −3,015 | −28.10% | 10,731 |
| Calumet | 12,850 | 39.33% | 19,075 | 58.38% | 749 | 2.29% | −6,225 | −19.05% | 32,674 |
| Chippewa | 14,875 | 39.09% | 22,189 | 58.31% | 991 | 2.60% | −7,314 | −19.22% | 38,055 |
| Clark | 4,819 | 31.75% | 9,917 | 65.34% | 441 | 2.91% | −5,098 | −33.59% | 15,177 |
| Columbia | 16,753 | 48.39% | 17,120 | 49.45% | 751 | 2.17% | −367 | −1.06% | 34,624 |
| Crawford | 4,026 | 44.53% | 4,761 | 52.65% | 255 | 2.82% | −735 | −8.13% | 9,042 |
| Dane | 273,696 | 75.31% | 84,762 | 23.32% | 4,983 | 1.37% | 188,934 | 51.98% | 363,441 |
| Dodge | 16,819 | 33.71% | 31,928 | 63.99% | 1,148 | 2.30% | −15,109 | −30.28% | 49,895 |
| Door | 10,503 | 50.48% | 9,942 | 47.78% | 363 | 1.74% | 561 | 2.70% | 20,808 |
| Douglas | 13,119 | 52.71% | 11,105 | 44.62% | 665 | 2.67% | 2,014 | 8.09% | 24,889 |
| Dunn | 10,795 | 42.54% | 13,983 | 55.10% | 598 | 2.36% | −3,188 | −12.56% | 25,376 |
| Eau Claire | 34,382 | 55.11% | 26,584 | 42.61% | 1,423 | 2.28% | 7,798 | 12.50% | 62,389 |
| Florence | 788 | 25.14% | 2,272 | 72.50% | 74 | 2.36% | −1,484 | −47.35% | 3,134 |
| Fond du Lac | 20,777 | 35.80% | 35,909 | 61.87% | 1,353 | 2.33% | −15,132 | −26.07% | 58,039 |
| Forest | 1,853 | 35.70% | 3,200 | 61.65% | 138 | 2.66% | −1,347 | −25.95% | 5,191 |
| Grant | 11,300 | 41.99% | 14,995 | 55.72% | 615 | 2.29% | −3,695 | −13.73% | 26,910 |
| Green | 11,188 | 51.01% | 10,280 | 46.87% | 466 | 2.12% | 908 | 4.14% | 21,934 |
| Green Lake | 3,592 | 32.70% | 7,138 | 64.97% | 256 | 2.33% | −3,546 | −32.28% | 10,986 |
| Iowa | 7,946 | 54.55% | 6,323 | 43.41% | 297 | 2.04% | 1,623 | 11.14% | 14,566 |
| Iron | 1,513 | 37.49% | 2,445 | 60.58% | 78 | 1.93% | −932 | −23.09% | 4,036 |
| Jackson | 4,314 | 41.48% | 5,764 | 55.42% | 323 | 3.11% | −1,450 | −13.94% | 10,401 |
| Jefferson | 20,631 | 41.52% | 28,005 | 56.36% | 1,053 | 2.12% | −7,374 | −14.84% | 49,689 |
| Juneau | 4,991 | 34.57% | 8,993 | 62.30% | 452 | 3.13% | −4,002 | −27.72% | 14,436 |
| Kenosha | 41,946 | 46.82% | 45,165 | 50.41% | 2,487 | 2.78% | −3,219 | −3.59% | 89,598 |
| Kewaunee | 4,254 | 34.37% | 7,869 | 63.57% | 255 | 2.06% | −3,615 | −29.21% | 12,378 |
| La Crosse | 39,268 | 54.83% | 30,746 | 42.93% | 1,601 | 2.24% | 8,522 | 11.90% | 71,615 |
| Lafayette | 3,763 | 42.92% | 4,838 | 55.18% | 167 | 1.90% | −1,075 | −12.26% | 8,768 |
| Langlade | 3,830 | 33.14% | 7,444 | 64.41% | 284 | 2.46% | −3,614 | −31.27% | 11,558 |
| Lincoln | 6,572 | 38.45% | 10,119 | 59.20% | 401 | 2.35% | −3,547 | −20.75% | 17,092 |
| Manitowoc | 17,627 | 38.35% | 27,201 | 59.18% | 1,138 | 2.48% | −9,574 | −20.83% | 45,966 |
| Marathon | 31,883 | 40.71% | 44,779 | 57.18% | 1,650 | 2.11% | −12,896 | −16.47% | 78,312 |
| Marinette | 7,678 | 31.82% | 15,730 | 65.19% | 721 | 2.99% | −8,052 | −33.37% | 24,129 |
| Marquette | 3,405 | 36.34% | 5,729 | 61.14% | 237 | 2.53% | −2,324 | −24.80% | 9,371 |
| Menominee | 1,203 | 78.37% | 288 | 18.76% | 44 | 2.87% | 915 | 59.61% | 1,535 |
| Milwaukee | 315,402 | 68.94% | 131,700 | 28.79% | 10,405 | 2.27% | 183,702 | 40.15% | 457,507 |
| Monroe | 8,647 | 37.33% | 13,860 | 59.84% | 656 | 2.83% | −5,213 | −22.51% | 23,163 |
| Oconto | 7,180 | 29.06% | 16,959 | 68.65% | 566 | 2.29% | −9,779 | −39.58% | 24,705 |
| Oneida | 10,272 | 41.64% | 13,898 | 56.34% | 497 | 2.01% | −3,626 | −14.70% | 24,667 |
| Outagamie | 49,196 | 44.28% | 59,077 | 53.17% | 2,833 | 2.55% | −9,881 | −8.89% | 111,106 |
| Ozaukee | 27,208 | 43.14% | 34,914 | 55.35% | 951 | 1.51% | −7,706 | −12.22% | 63,073 |
| Pepin | 1,591 | 36.85% | 2,636 | 61.05% | 91 | 2.11% | −1,045 | −24.20% | 4,318 |
| Pierce | 10,407 | 41.40% | 14,172 | 56.38% | 559 | 2.22% | −3,765 | −14.98% | 25,138 |
| Polk | 9,710 | 34.76% | 17,446 | 62.46% | 775 | 2.77% | −7,736 | −27.70% | 27,931 |
| Portage | 21,989 | 51.22% | 20,082 | 46.78% | 861 | 2.01% | 1,907 | 4.44% | 42,932 |
| Price | 3,181 | 36.12% | 5,424 | 61.59% | 201 | 2.28% | −2,243 | −25.47% | 8,806 |
| Racine | 49,333 | 46.27% | 54,789 | 51.38% | 2,504 | 2.35% | −5,456 | −5.12% | 106,626 |
| Richland | 4,111 | 44.53% | 4,912 | 53.20% | 210 | 2.27% | −801 | −8.68% | 9,233 |
| Rock | 47,080 | 53.85% | 38,097 | 43.57% | 2,257 | 2.58% | 8,983 | 10.27% | 87,434 |
| Rusk | 2,548 | 31.07% | 5,372 | 65.50% | 281 | 3.43% | −2,824 | −34.43% | 8,201 |
| Sauk | 18,429 | 49.57% | 17,895 | 48.13% | 853 | 2.29% | 534 | 1.44% | 37,177 |
| Sawyer | 4,621 | 41.88% | 6,208 | 56.27% | 204 | 1.85% | −1,587 | −14.38% | 11,033 |
| Shawano | 7,549 | 32.40% | 15,052 | 64.61% | 697 | 2.99% | −7,503 | −32.20% | 23,298 |
| Sheboygan | 27,552 | 41.18% | 37,747 | 56.42% | 1,605 | 2.40% | −10,195 | −15.24% | 66,904 |
| St. Croix | 23,792 | 39.63% | 34,844 | 58.05% | 1,393 | 2.32% | −11,052 | −18.41% | 60,029 |
| Taylor | 2,943 | 26.46% | 7,892 | 70.96% | 287 | 2.58% | −4,949 | −44.50% | 11,122 |
| Trempealeau | 6,424 | 40.35% | 9,118 | 57.27% | 380 | 2.39% | −2,694 | −16.92% | 15,922 |
| Vernon | 7,765 | 47.11% | 8,312 | 50.43% | 405 | 2.46% | −547 | −3.32% | 16,482 |
| Vilas | 6,120 | 38.21% | 9,607 | 59.99% | 288 | 1.80% | −3,487 | −21.77% | 16,015 |
| Walworth | 22,882 | 38.12% | 35,692 | 59.46% | 1,454 | 2.42% | −12,810 | −21.34% | 60,028 |
| Washburn | 3,916 | 35.99% | 6,724 | 61.79% | 242 | 2.22% | −2,808 | −25.80% | 10,882 |
| Washington | 28,053 | 30.92% | 61,163 | 67.40% | 1,526 | 1.68% | −33,110 | −36.49% | 90,742 |
| Waukesha | 105,781 | 38.65% | 163,590 | 59.77% | 4,310 | 1.57% | −57,809 | −21.12% | 273,681 |
| Waupaca | 10,013 | 33.26% | 19,117 | 63.50% | 977 | 3.25% | −9,104 | −30.24% | 30,107 |
| Waushara | 4,643 | 32.58% | 9,253 | 64.93% | 354 | 2.48% | −4,610 | −32.35% | 14,250 |
| Winnebago | 44,721 | 47.32% | 47,265 | 50.02% | 2,515 | 2.66% | −2,544 | −2.69% | 94,501 |
| Wood | 17,134 | 40.96% | 23,662 | 56.57% | 1,035 | 2.47% | −6,528 | −15.61% | 41,831 |
| Totals | 1,672,777 | 49.33% | 1,643,996 | 48.48% | 74,014 | 2.18% | 28,781 | 0.85% | 3,390,787 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Columbia (largest city: Portage)
- Kenosha (largest city: Kenosha)
- Lafayette (largest city: Darlington)
- Racine (largest city: Racine)
- Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
- Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
- Crawford (largest city: Prairie du Chien)
- Dunn (largest city: Menomonie)
- Grant (largest city: Platteville)
- Pierce (largest city: River Falls)
- Richland (largest city: Richland Center)
- Trempealeau (largest city: Arcadia)
- Vernon (largest city: Viroqua)
- Winnebago (largest city: Oshkosh)
By congressional district
Despite losing the state, Hovde won six of eight congressional districts.[177]
| District | Baldwin | Hovde | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 47.5% | 50.1% | Bryan Steil |
| 2nd | 69.9% | 28.6% | Mark Pocan |
| 3rd | 46.8% | 50.8% | Derrick Van Orden |
| 4th | 75.6% | 22.4% | Gwen Moore |
| 5th | 37.9% | 60.5% | Scott L. Fitzgerald |
| 6th | 41.5% | 56.2% | Glenn Grothman |
| 7th | 39.0% | 58.7% | Tom Tiffany |
| 8th | 41.6% | 56.0% | Tony Wied |
Aftermath
The election was widely called for Baldwin by most news outlets, due to her 30,000-vote lead. On November 12, Hovde contested the results and considered requesting a recount. He believed there were voting inconsistencies on the ballot and criticized how absentee ballots were counted in Milwaukee.[178] His criticisms on election integrity received widespread condemnation with calls to concede the race, which he did on November 18. Hovde decided not to request a recount due to potential challenges to do so, while he continued to criticize how absentee votes were counted.[179]
See also
Notes
- $13,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Hovde
- $10,000 of this total was self-funded by Raveendran
- Withdrew
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%
- "Another candidate" with 3%
- "I Did Note Vote For This Office" with 1%
- "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
- "Other" with 3%; "Neither" with 1%
- Anderson (I) with 2%; Leager (I) with 1%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- Leager (I) with 2%; Anderson (I) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%
- Anderson (I) with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 1% each
- "Some other candidate" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- "Would not vote" with 1%
- "Some other candidate" with 1%
- "Wouldn't vote" and "Refused" with 1% each
- Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 1%
- "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Won't vote if these are the candidates", "Other", Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 1%
- "Prefer not to say" with 1%
- Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 2%
- "Other" with 2%; "Neither" with 1%
- Leager with 1%; Anderson with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
- Anderson with 2%; Leager with 2%
- "Other" with 1%
- "Another candidate" with 8%
- "Another candidate" with 7%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- $20,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Hovde
Partisan clients
- Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- Poll sponsored by On Point Politics.
- Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
- Poll sponsored by Senate Opportunity Fund, a super PAC that primarily supports Republican candidates in U.S. Senate races
- Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
- Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
- Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
- Poll sponsored by Wisconsin Watch
- Poll sponsored by Americans for IVF
- Poll sponsored by Platform Communications
- Poll sponsored by Pinpoint Policy Institute
- Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
- Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
- Poll sponsored by American Greatness, a conservative group
- Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Gallagher.