2026 United States Senate election in Alaska
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Alaska. A nonpartisan primary election will be held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted under ranked-choice voting.
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November 3, 2026
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Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who was re-elected in 2020 with 54% of the vote,[1] has declared his re-election bid. Mary Peltola, a former U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district, is running for the seat as a Democrat.[2]
No Democrat has represented Alaska in the Senate since 2015, and Alaska has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964. Peltola is the only Democrat to have won a statewide election in Alaska since Mark Begich was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2008.
Candidates
Republican Party
Declared
- Dan Sullivan, incumbent U.S. senator[3]
- Dustin Darden, perennial candidate[4][5]
- Dan J. Sullivan, former U.S. Forest Service employee[6] (no relation to the incumbent)
Filed paperwork
- Fred C. Grauberger, retired motor vehicle operator[7]
- Gerald L. Heikes, bassist and perennial candidate[8]
- Richard Benedict "Sieg Heil" Mayers, disqualified candidate for IN-01 in 2026[8]
Potential
- James Ryan, employee of Kosmos Energy[9]
Withdrawn
- Christopher Miklos, businessman[10]
Democratic Party
Declared
- William Lee Hunt, former Fairbanks District Attorney’s Office Administrative Clerk and Independent candidate for President in 2024 and 2028[11][12][13]
- Mary Peltola, former U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district (2022–2025)[2]
Filed paperwork
- Carol Hafner, former flight attendant and perennial candidate[14]
- David Leslie, LGBTQ+ activist[11]
Withdrawn
- Ann Diener, sales executive at the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner[15][16]
Green Party
Declared
- Richard Grayson, author and perennial candidate[17]
Independents
Filed paperwork
Primary election
Under Alaska's voting system, all candidates, regardless of party, will run on the same primary ballot. The top four candidates in the primary will advance to the general election, which will be conducted using ranked-choice voting.[19]
Background
Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan announced his run for re-election in early 2025. He was first elected in 2014, defeating Mark Begich, the most recent Democrat to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate. He was last re-elected in 2020, prior to the implementation of Alaska's ranked-choice voting system.[3] Facing few obvious swing state targets to regain the Senate majority in 2026, Democrats began looking towards more Republican-leaning states, such as Ohio and Texas, as potential targets.[20] Among these states was Alaska, where Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer heavily courted former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola, the last Democrat to win any statewide election in Alaska, to run for Senate.[21] Peltola narrowly lost her congressional seat in 2024, and had considered running for either Senate or governor, but she ultimately decided to enter the Senate race in early 2026, setting up the race between her and Sullivan.[22][23]
Campaign
Peltola's entry into the race immediately made the race competitive, according to most predictors.[24] She still faces significant hurdles, such as Sullivan's incumbency and lack of a prominent Republican challenger, the unpopularity of the national Democratic Party in Alaska, and a reduction in cross-party support. Lisa Murkowski, Alaska's other U.S. Senator and a noted moderate Republican, had endorsed Peltola in her 2022 and 2024 bids for U.S. House, but she endorsed Sullivan in this race instead.[25]
Endorsements
- Executive branch officials
- Pete Buttigieg, former secretary of transportation (2021–2025)[26]
- U.S. senators
- Elissa Slotkin, Michigan (2025–present)[27]
- U.S. representatives
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, NY-14 (2019–present)[28]
- Statewide officials
- Peggy Flanagan, lieutenant governor of Minnesota (2019–present) and 2026 senate candidate[29]
- State legislators
- Tom Begich, former senate minority leader (2019–2023) from district J (2017–2023) and 2026 gubernatorial candidate[26]
- Party officials
- Eric Croft, chair of the Alaska Democratic Party (2025–present)[30]
- Labor unions
- Organizations
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[39]
- Tara Sweeney, former assistant secretary of the interior for Native American affairs (2018–2021)[40]
- U.S. senators
- Lisa Murkowski, Alaska (2002–present)[41]
- U.S. representatives
- Nick Begich III, AK-AL (2025–present)[42]
- State legislators
- Lyman Hoffman, state senator from district S (1991–1993, 1995–present) (Democratic)[40]
- John Lincoln, former state representative from the 40th district (2018–2021) (Independent)[40][a]
- Bill Thomas, former state representative from the 5th district (2005–2013)[40]
- Labor unions
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Dan Sullivan (R) | $9,099,778 | $2,745,469 | $7,086,052 |
| Mary Peltola (D) | $8,661,662 | $2,934,553 | $5,727,108 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[46] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Ann Diener (D) |
Fred Grauberger (R) |
Richard Grayson (G) |
Sid Hill (I) |
William Hunt (D) |
Christopher Miklos (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
James Ryan (R)[d] |
Dan Sullivan (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diener withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
| Miklos withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[47] | March 19–22, 2026 | 1,283 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 46% | 3% | 41% | – |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[48] | Lean R | April 23, 2026 |
| Race To The WH[49] | Tossup | May 22, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[50] | Tossup | May 19, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[51] | Lean R | March 4, 2026 |
| The Cook Political Report[52] | Lean R | April 13, 2026 |
| The Economist[53][e] | Lean R | May 22, 2026 |
Polling
Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Dan Sullivan (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Other/Undecided [f] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[54] | March 29 - May 27, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | 44.5% | 48.1% | 7.4% | Peltola +3.6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Dan Sullivan (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[55] | May 14–17, 2026 | 1,401 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 48% | 8%[g] | – |
| Alaska Survey Research[56] | April 16–19, 2026 | 1,946 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 49% | 8%[h] | – |
| 44% | 50% | 6%[i] | – | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[47] | March 19–22, 2026 | 1,590 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 44% | 49% | 7%[j] | – |
| 44% | 50% | 6%[k] | – | ||||
| 48% | 52% | – | – | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[57][A] | January 16–17, 2026 | 611 (V) | – | 47% | 49% | – | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research[59] | January 8–11, 2026 | 1,988 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 46% | 48% | – | 6% |
| Data for Progress (D)[60] | October 17–23, 2025 | 823 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 5%[l] | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research[61] | October 10–15, 2025 | 1,708 (LV) | – | 46% | 48% | – | 6% |
| Alaska Survey Research[62] | July 29 – August 1, 2025 | 1,623 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
| Data for Progress (D)[63] | July 21–27, 2025 | 678 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 5%[l] | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research[64] | April 21–25, 2023 | 1,261 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | – | 15% |
Notes
- Lincoln was elected as a Democrat before leaving the party in 2019 and registering as an independent. He continued to caucus with the Democrats for the remainder of his term.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Candidate not running in this election
- The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Dustin Darden (R) with 5%; Gerald Heikes (R) with 3%
- James Ryan (R, undeclared) with 5%; Sid Hill (I) with 3%
- James Ryan (R, undeclared) with 6%
- Miklos (R) with 5%; Diener (D) with 2%
- Miklos (R) with 6%
- "I would rank neither" with 5%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.[58]