2026 United States Senate election in Alaska
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Alaska. Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan is seeking a third term. He is being challenged by Democratic former congresswoman Mary Peltola. The election will be conducted under ranked-choice voting.
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November 3, 2026
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A nonpartisan primary election was held on August 18 to determine the four candidates in the general election. Peltola and Sullivan were the first to advance with 49.5% and 41.4% of the vote respectively, followed by Republican former U.S. Forest Service employee Daniel J. Sullivan and Republican perennial candidate Gerald Heikes.
Democrats have not won a Senate election in Alaska since 2008.
Candidates
Republican Party
Advanced to general
- Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.[a] former U.S. Forest Service employee[1][2] (no relation to the incumbent)[3][4][b]
- Dan S. Sullivan, incumbent U.S. senator[5][2]
- Gerald L. Heikes, bassist and perennial candidate[6][2]
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
- Christopher Miklos, businessman[10]
Democratic Party
Advanced to general
- Mary Peltola, former U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district (2022–2025)[11][2]
Withdrew after advancing to general
Eliminated in primary
- Carol Hafner, former flight attendant and perennial candidate[2][6]
Withdrawn
- Ann Diener, sales executive at the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner[13]
- William Lee Hunt, former Fairbanks District Attorney's Office Administrative Clerk and independent candidate for President in 2024 and 2028[14] (running for Alaska state senate)[15]
Libertarian Party
Eliminated in primary
Green Party
Eliminated in primary
- Richard Grayson, author and perennial candidate[16][2]
Alaskan Party
Eliminated in primary
Independents
Eliminated in primary
Primary election
Under Alaska's voting system, all candidates, regardless of party, run on the same primary ballot. The top four candidates in the primary advance to the general election, which is then conducted using ranked-choice voting.[17]
Background
Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan announced his run for re-election in early 2025. He was first elected in 2014, defeating Mark Begich, the most recent Democrat to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate. He was last re-elected in 2020, prior to the implementation of Alaska's ranked-choice voting system.[5] Facing few obvious swing state targets to regain the Senate majority in 2026, Democrats began looking towards more Republican-leaning states, such as Ohio and Texas, as potential targets.[18] Among these states was Alaska, where Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer heavily courted former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola, the last Democrat to win any statewide election in Alaska, to run for Senate.[19] Peltola narrowly lost her congressional seat in 2024, and had considered running for either Senate or governor, but she ultimately decided to enter the Senate race in early 2026, setting up the race between her and Sullivan.[20][21]
Daniel James Sullivan
Daniel James Sullivan Jr. (born June 1957)[22] is a retired teacher and United States Forest Service employee from Petersburg, Alaska, who filed to run as a Republican three days before the filing deadline.[23] In an interview with the Petersburg Pilot, Sullivan stated that he had been considering running against the incumbent U.S. Senator for 12 years, and remarked that he finally decided to run after the Senator's lack of opposition to the Anti-Weaponization Fund.[24] Senator Sullivan said this was "an effort to confuse Alaskans" and "dirty politics" by Democrats, calling Dan J. Sullivan a "sham candidate". This was denied by Dan J. Sullivan, who called himself a "pragmatic Republican centrist". It was also denied by Mary Peltola's campaign, the Alaska Democratic Party, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Senator Sullivan threatened legal action if the Lieutenant Governor of Alaska did not remove Dan J. Sullivan from the ballot.[25]
Dan J. Sullivan grew up in the Chicago metropolitan area, and has lived in Southeast Alaska since 1980. He worked for the United States Forest Service in his early career before beginning a career as an elementary school teacher.[22] Sullivan taught in elementary schools for over 20 years before retiring.[26] He was appointed to the city of Petersburg's Public Safety Advisory Board in December 2021.[26] He served in that position until October 2022.[27] He stated that he was a member of the Alaskan Independence Party from when he moved to Alaska in 1980 until the party's dissolution in late 2025.[26][24]
Sullivan's initial campaign announcement stated that he was "focused on unseating the incumbent, putting Alaska first, and restoring accountability, common sense, and public service to Washington, D.C."[23] He later described his political philosophy as "a pragmatic Republican centrist" similar to Lisa Murkowski, with influence from Rand Paul.[22] Incumbent U.S. Senator Daniel Scott Sullivan argued in an early June 2026 interview with CNN that "[Daniel James Sullivan's] whole purpose of running is to confuse Alaskans, to make him, make them think – Alaskan voters – that somehow he’s me, so they could rig the vote in favor of Mary Peltola."[25] An analysis of Federal Election Commission records by KTUU-TV showed that he had donated to Peltola's previous campaigns, including $100 in 2022 and $30 in 2024. KTUU reported that "That financial history is the extent of the documented link between the Petersburg Sullivan and the Peltola campaign."[28] His initial press release and website design were supported by political strategist Amber Lee, who has previously worked with Democratic campaigns in Alaska.[29] Lee has publicly spoken in favor of Peltola's candidacy, including in a January 2026 interview with The Hill.[29][30]
The Wall Street Journal reported that weeks before the election, polls showed that approximately one third of voters likely to vote in the primary election could not distinguish the two candidates.[31] Dan J. Sullivan's candidacy was the subject of legal debate, which as of June 27, 2026[update] is expected to advance to the Alaska Supreme Court.[32] In its initial response to Sullivan's candidacy filing, the Alaska Division of Elections stated that Sullivan's name would appear on the ballot as "Sullivan, Dan J. (Registered Republican)."[33]
An Alaskan election official ordered Sullivan's name removed from the ballot, as his candidacy "was not filed in order to declare an actual good-faith candidacy for the office of United States Senator, but was instead filed with a purpose to confuse or mislead and to thereby compromise the ballot’s fairness or neutrality",[34] a decision he appealed.[35] Anchorage Superior Court judge Thomas A. Matthews reversed the Division of Elections' decision to exclude Sullivan from the primary ballot on June 26. Matthews' decision ruled that the "good-faith" standard for ballot access was not supported by Alaska law, the Division of Elections' regulations, or Article One, Section 3 of the United States Constitution.[33][32][36] On July 2nd the Alaska Supreme Court affirmed the decision, ordering Sullivan's name to be listed on the August 18th primary ballot.[37] [37] The Division of Elections released a sample ballot that will distinguish between the two Sullivans by listing Dan J. Sullivan as "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr." and no party affiliation (despite Sullivan filing as a Republican) and identifying Dan S. Sullivan as the incumbent, which the DoE had not done for any other incumbent for at least 10 years.[38]
Daniel James Sullivan and Daniel Scott Sullivan are also unrelated to each other, and unrelated to former Anchorage mayor Daniel Albert Sullivan.[39]
Campaign
Peltola's entry into the race immediately made the race competitive, according to most predictors.[40] She still faces significant hurdles, such as Sullivan's incumbency and lack of a prominent Republican challenger, the unpopularity of the national Democratic Party in Alaska, and a reduction in cross-party support. Lisa Murkowski, Alaska's other U.S. Senator and a noted moderate Republican, had endorsed Peltola in her 2022 and 2024 bids for U.S. House, but she endorsed Sullivan in this race instead.[41] However, as Trump's unpopularity grew, especially amidst the 2026 Iran war, Peltola's chances of flipping the Senate seat grew.[42]
Over the course of the primary campaign, a super PAC called Fair Deal Alaska registered to a virtual office address in Wasilla spent around $770,000 promoting Green Party candidate Richard Grayson and Democrat Carol Hafner in what the Alaska Beacon and the Anchorage Daily News described as an apparent attempt to dilute support for Peltola in the general election.[43][44] Another PAC called American Democracy Project spent over $240,000 to promote Democrat David Leslie.[44] A similar group called Right for Alaska spent $1.2 million promoting Republican Gerald Heikes and Alaskan Party candidate Earl "Skip" Southworth, who were considered more likely to draw support from Dan S. Sullivan.[43][44]
Both Grayson and Leslie expressed concern about the outside spending on their behalf to the Anchorage Daily News. Grayson—a satirical candidate living in Arizona—said that he supported Peltola and pledged to withdraw if he advanced to the general election.[44]
Endorsements
- Political parties
- Executive branch officials
Kamala Harris, former vice president of the United States (2021–2025)(endorsement rejected by candidate)[46]- Pete Buttigieg, former secretary of transportation (2021–2025)[47]
- U.S. senators
- Elissa Slotkin, Michigan (2025–present)[30]
- U.S. representatives
- Adam Kinzinger, former IL-16 (2013–2023)[c] (Republican)[48]
- State legislators
- Tom Begich, former senate minority leader (2019–2023) from district J (2017–2023) and 2026 gubernatorial candidate[47]
- Party officials
- Eric Croft, chair of the Alaska Democratic Party (2025–present)[49]
- Individuals
- Richard Grayson, writer and candidate for this seat (Green)[44]
- Martin Sheen, actor[50]
- Shannon Watts, founder of Moms Demand Action[51]
- Labor unions
- Alaska AFL-CIO[52]
- American Federation of Government Employees[53]
- Association of Flight Attendants[54]
- National Education Association[55]
- SEIU 775[56]
- Organizations
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[67]
- Tara Sweeney, former assistant secretary of the interior for Native American affairs (2018–2021)[68]
- U.S. senators
- Lisa Murkowski, Alaska (2002–present)[69]
- U.S. representatives
- Nick Begich III, AK-AL (2025–present)[70]
- State legislators
- Lyman Hoffman, state senator from district S (1991–1993, 1995–present) (Democratic)[68]
- John Lincoln, former state representative from the 40th district (2018–2021) (Independent)[68][d]
- Gary Stevens, Senate president (2009–2013, 2023–present) from district C (2003–present)[71]
- Bill Thomas, former state representative from the 5th district (2005–2013)[68]
- Party officials
- Brian Hove, Republican National Committeeman for Alaska[72]
- Labor unions
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of July 29, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Dan S. Sullivan (R) | $11,735,898 | $5,172,572 | $7,295,069 |
| Mary Peltola (D) | $18,545,132 | $13,908,377 | $4,636,755 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[77] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Ann Diener (D) |
Fred Grauberger (R) |
Richard Grayson (G) |
Sid Hill (I) |
William Hunt (D) |
Christopher Miklos (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
James Ryan (R)[g] |
Dan S. Sullivan (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunt withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
| Diener withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
| Miklos withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[78] | March 19–22, 2026 | 1,283 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 46% | 3% | 41% | — |
Results
The Associated Press has projected that Mary Peltola, Dan S. Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan, and Gerald Heikes will advance to the general election.[79]
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mary Peltola | 82,244 | 49.5 | |
| Republican | Dan S. Sullivan (incumbent) | 68,726 | 41.4 | |
| No party listed[h] | Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | 4,107 | 2.5 | |
| Democratic | David Leslie (withdrew) | 1,850 | 1.1 | |
| Republican | Gerald L. Heikes | 1,741 | 1.1 | |
| Democratic | Carol Hafner | 1,009 | 0.6 | |
| Republican | Heather McElwain | 972 | 0.6 | |
| Republican | Dustin Darden | 808 | 0.5 | |
| Alaskan | Earl D. "Skip" Southworth | 803 | 0.5 | |
| Libertarian | Scott Kohlhaas | 794 | 0.5 | |
| Republican | Richard Benedict Mayers | 609 | 0.4 | |
| Independent | Reece Roberts | 602 | 0.4 | |
| Independent | Sid Hill | 522 | 0.3 | |
| Republican | Fred C. Grauberger | 479 | 0.3 | |
| Green | Richard Grayson | 432 | 0.3 | |
| Independent | Shirley Saucerman | 306 | 0.2 | |
| Total votes | 166,004 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[81] | Tossup | August 20, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ[82] | Tossup | August 28, 2026 |
| The Economist[83][i] | Tossup | August 31, 2026 |
| FiftyPlusOne[84] | Lean D (flip) | September 16, 2026 |
| Fox News[85] | Tossup | August 18, 2026 |
| Inside Elections[86] | Tilt R | September 3, 2026 |
| Race To The WH[87] | Tossup | August 30, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[88] | Tossup | August 27, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[89] | Tossup | August 26, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin[90] | Tossup | August 21, 2026 |
| Split Ticket[91] | Tossup | August 31, 2026 |
Debates and forums
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Mary Peltola | Dan S. Sullivan | |||||
| 1[92] | Aug. 27, 2026 | Alaska Oil and Gas Association | Michelle Egan | Vimeo | P | P |
| 2[93] | Sep. 12, 2026 | Kodiak Chamber of Commerce KMXT (FM) |
Gary Stevens Sara Fraser |
YouTube | P | P |
Post-primary endorsements
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of July 29, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Dan S. Sullivan (R) | $11,735,898 | $5,172,572 | $7,295,069 |
| Mary Peltola (D) | $18,545,132 | $13,908,377 | $4,636,755 |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (R) | $18,835 | $10,435 | $8,400 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[96] | |||
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Dan S. Sullivan (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Other/Undecided [j] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ[97] | through August 23, 2026 | September 13, 2026 | 47.9% | 50.0% | 2.1% | Peltola +2.1% |
| Race to the WH[98] | through August 23, 2026 | September 11, 2026 | 49.1% | 49.8% | 1.1% | Peltola +0.7% |
| RealClearPolitics[99] | through August 23, 2026 | September 11, 2026 | 47.7% | 49.7% | 2.6% | Peltola +2.0% |
| Silver Bulletin[90] | through August 23, 2026 | September 16, 2026 | 47.2% | 48.6% | 4.2% | Peltola +1.24% |
| Average | 48.0% | 49.5% | 2.5% | Peltola +1.5% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Dan S. Sullivan (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Dan J. Sullivan (R) |
Gerald Heikes (R) |
Other | Undecided | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[100] | September 13–14, 2026 | 1,188 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 39% | 7% | 6% | — | 9% | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[101] | August 20–23, 2026 | 1,495 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 51% | — | — | — | — | ||||
| Primary election held | |||||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[102] | August 2–5, 2026 | 1,371 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 51% | — | — | — | — | ||||
| Data for Progress (D)[103] | July 28 – August 4, 2026 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 53% | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 575 (LV) | 45% | 50% | 4% | — | — | — | |||||||
| 567 (LV) | 41% | 47% | 4% | 3% | — | — | |||||||
| New York Times/Siena University[104] | June 15–29, 2026 | 593 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 45% | — | — | 2% | 5% | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[105] | June 4–7, 2026 | 1,393 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 49% | — | 4% | 3%[k] | — | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[106] | May 14–17, 2026 | 1,401 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 48% | — | 3% | 5%[l] | — | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[107] | April 16–19, 2026 | 1,946 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 49% | — | — | 8%[m] | — | ||||
| 44% | 50% | — | — | 6%[n] | — | ||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[78] | March 19–22, 2026 | 1,590 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 44% | 49% | — | — | 7%[o] | — | ||||
| 44% | 50% | — | — | 6%[p] | — | ||||||||
| 48% | 52% | — | — | — | — | ||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[108][A] | January 16–17, 2026 | 611 (V) | — | 47% | 49% | — | — | — | 4% | ||||
| Peltola enters the race | |||||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[110] | January 8–11, 2026 | 1,988 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 46% | 48% | — | — | — | 6% | ||||
| Data for Progress (D)[111] | October 17–23, 2025 | 823 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | — | — | 5%[q] | 4% | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[112] | October 10–15, 2025 | 1,708 (LV) | — | 46% | 48% | — | — | — | 6% | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[113] | July 29 – August 1, 2025 | 1,623 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 42% | — | — | — | 11% | ||||
| Data for Progress (D)[114] | July 21–27, 2025 | 678 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | — | — | 5%[q] | 4% | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[115] | April 21–25, 2023 | 1,261 (LV) | — | 41% | 44% | — | — | — | 15% | ||||
Results
| Party | Candidate | First choice | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | |||
| Republican | Dan S. Sullivan (incumbent) | |||
| Democratic | Mary Peltola | |||
| No party listed[h] | Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | |||
| Republican | Gerald L. Heikes | |||
Notes
- Name shown as displayed on ballot, as per the Alaska Division of Elections.
- The Alaska Division of Elections issued a preliminary decision that Sullivan is not eligible to run for US Senator on June 10, and then a final decision declaring him ineligible June 16. The Anchorage Superior Court reversed the board's decision on June 26, putting J. Sullivan back on the ballot. He was listed without a party affiliation.
- Previously represented the 11th district from 2011 to 2013
- Lincoln was elected as a Democrat before leaving the party in 2019 and registering as an independent. He continued to caucus with the Democrats for the remainder of his term.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Candidate not running in this election
- The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Dustin Darden (R) with 3%
- Dustin Darden (R) with 5%
- James Ryan (R, undeclared) with 5%; Sid Hill (I) with 3%
- James Ryan (R, undeclared) with 6%
- Miklos (R) with 5%; Diener (D) with 2%
- Miklos (R) with 6%
- "I would rank neither" with 5%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.[109]