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2026 United States Senate election in Michigan

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The 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. Democratic former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former congressman Mike Rogers are the nominees for their respective parties. Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is not seeking a third term.

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2026 United States Senate election in Michigan
← 2020
November 3, 2026
2032 →
 
Nominee Abdul El-Sayed Mike Rogers
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Gary Peters
Democratic


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For most of the primary, El-Sayed, congresswoman Haley Stevens, and state senator Mallory McMorrow sought the Democratic nomination. After McMorrow withdrew in July, El-Sayed and Stevens remained in a tight race, which El-Sayed won on August 4 with 48.5% of the vote. Rogers, the Republican nominee in 2024, was the only candidate to qualify for his party's primary ballot.

This is the only open Democratic-held Senate seat up for election in a state won by Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Republicans have not won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994.[1]

Background

Michigan is considered to be a swing state. Most recently in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections, the state backed Joe Biden by 2.8% and Donald Trump by 1.4%, respectively.[2] Gary Peters was first elected with 54.6% of the vote in 2014 and re-elected with 49.9% in 2020.[3][4] He announced in January 2025 that he was not seeking reelection for a third term.[5]

Both parties have had electoral success in Michigan in recent years, though Democrats have generally performed better in non-presidential races. Democrats currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide executive offices, and the state senate. Republicans control the Michigan House of Representatives and hold a majority of the state's U.S. House seats.[6] Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Michigan since 1994, this Senate seat since 1972 or a non-presidential statewide election since 2014.[7]

As one of only two Democratic-held Senate seats in a state won by Donald Trump in 2024, Michigan is considered a key Senate battleground in 2026.[8][9]

Democratic primary

Campaign

Mallory McMorrow, who was first elected to the Michigan Senate in 2018, announced her campaign for the U.S. Senate on April 2, 2025, becoming the first high-profile Democrat to enter the race to succeed Gary Peters.[10] Her campaign launch featured footage from a 2022 speech defending her support for transgender individuals following criticism from Republican colleagues.[11][12] Abdul El-Sayed, former director of Wayne County's Department of Health, Human and Veteran Services, entered the race on April 19, 2025.[13] Haley Stevens, who has represented Michigan's 11th congressional district since 2019, announced her candidacy three days later.[14] By March 2026, McMorrow had collected more than 30,000 volunteer-gathered signatures, qualifying for the ballot without paid petition circulators.[15] In April 2026, Stevens and El-Sayed also qualified for the ballot after collecting the required signatures.[16][17] That month, all three candidates spoke at the Michigan Democratic Party's Spring Endorsement Convention in Detroit.[18]

Stevens, McMorrow, and El-Sayed each represented different ideological wings and campaign strategies within the Democratic Party. Stevens, who received private backing from Senate Democratic leadership, was viewed as the more moderate candidate, while El-Sayed was considered the most progressive.[19][20] El-Sayed told Time that he is not a socialist and believes in capitalism.[21] McMorrow centered her campaign on the need for new Democratic leadership and pledged not to support Chuck Schumer as Senate Democratic leader if elected.[19][20][22] El-Sayed criticized that position, arguing it was shortsighted to oppose Schumer without identifying a successor.[13] Stevens emphasized her role in helping rescue the Big Three automakers during the Obama administration, while McMorrow and El-Sayed promoted diversifying Michigan's economy through apprenticeships in industries such as beekeeping, winemaking, and leather-making.[23]

McMorrow withdrew from the race in July 2026 after her polling declined.[24][25] Following McMorrow's departure from the race, independent polls showed Stevens and El-Sayed statistically tied.[25][26] In the days leading up to the election, polls had showed El-Sayed with a double digit lead.[27] Stevens was later endorsed by Peters and several prominent Michigan Democrats, including former Senator Debbie Stabenow, former Governor Jennifer Granholm, and Governor Gretchen Whitmer.[28]

Campaign finance emerged as a point of contrast during the primary. El-Sayed and McMorrow called for an end to corporate political spending and declined corporate donations during the election cycle, while Stevens expressed support for campaign finance reform and said she was "not taking any new pledges."[29][30] Financial disclosure also became an issue after Stevens urged El-Sayed to release his financial disclosure report before the August 4 primary. El-Sayed had previously received an extension to file the report until August 13 but released his 2026 financial returns publicly in July.[31][32]

Policy differences between the candidates centered on immigration, foreign policy, and healthcare.[33] Israel emerged as a major issue in the race. El-Sayed, who is considered more pro-Palestinian and the most critical of Israel of all the candidates, called for ending all unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel. In contrast, Stevens has voted to provide additional military aid to Israel, has received significant support from the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, and stated she does not believe there has been a genocide in Gaza.[34] She supports a two-state solution[35] and criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, accusing him of endangering Jewish people worldwide.[36][33][37] On domestic policy, El-Sayed supports Medicare for All and the abolition of ICE, while Stevens has called for the expansion of Medicare access and reforming ICE.[38][39] El-Sayed has faced criticism for claiming that he never supported the Defund the Police movement, despite previously promoting it on Detroit Public Radio and social media.[40][41]

In the days leading up to August 4, El-Sayed marched in downtown Detroit and attended a private pool party with several social media influencers that included Hasan Piker. El-Sayed then held his election night watch party at the Majestic Theatre in Detroit a few hours after conducting a series of interviews that included the Associated Press, MS Now, and content creators in Eastern Market. The Associated Press called the race for El-Sayed the morning after the election who had roughly a one percent lead over Stevens with 99% of the votes reporting. That same day, Stevens called El-Sayed to concede the race and pledged to support him in the general election against Mike Rogers.[42][43]

Analysis

The primary campaign has seen debate arise over the electability of the candidates. Figures on the progressive left and the democratic socialist movement, have argued that El-Sayed's policy positions would energize voters in both the primary and general election.[44][29] Stevens benefited from an outside spending advantage, with approximately $62 million spent on her behalf, amounting to a 9–1 advantage to El-Sayed.[45] AIPAC has spent nearly $30 million supporting Stevens, surpassing all of their prior investments made for a candidate in a particular race.[46] Their primary political action committee, The United Democracy Project, released a Michigan advertisement featuring a 2018 clip of Barack Obama praising Stevens for her work as chief of staff to a federal task force created to assist the automobile industry in 2009.[34][47] Meanwhile, presumptive Republican nominee Mike Rogers told supporters during a private call that he believes he would be in "good shape" if he had to face El-Sayed in the general election, whom he believes is polarizing and would "lose big parts of the west part of the state" in the general election.[48]

Stevens' supporters argued that El-Sayed's appeal to the progressive base would be detrimental in a general election and could alienate voters in a state Donald Trump has won twice.[21][48][49] They also expressed concerns that El-Sayed's embrace of democratic socialist figures were a risky, untested electoral strategy that could jeopardize Democratic efforts to retain the seat and win a Senate majority.[29][50][34] El-Sayed had campaigned with Hasan Piker throughout the campaign, including at Michigan State University and the University of Michigan, a decision that drew backlash from McMorrow, Stevens, and Rogers due to accusations[who?] of Piker using antisemitic rhetoric in the past.[51][52] Other Democrats and party leaders worried that El-Sayed's embrace of Piker would inhibit his ability to win the general election, particularly amongst Jewish voters.[53][54] Stevens had been successful in flipping a Republican-held House seat in 2018 and retained it in every subsequent election, including in 2020, when Joe Biden narrowly carried her district, which her supporters believe demonstrates her electability.[55][34] They also cited the electoral success of other moderate Democratic women in Michigan, including current Senator Elissa Slotkin, former Governor Jennifer Granholm, and current Governor Gretchen Whitmer,[55] who won competitive races, as an argument for Stevens being the more electable candidate.[34][56]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Not on ballot

  • Rachel Howard, research health specialist[60][61]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Abdul El-Sayed
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Newspapers
Haley Stevens
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Party officials
Party chapters
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Mallory McMorrow (withdrawn, remained on ballot)
U.S. senators
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Party chapters
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Declined to endorse
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators

Debates and forums

More information No., Date ...
2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary debates and forums
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Democratic Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  W Withdrawn
El-Sayed McMorrow Stevens
1[205] February 11, 2026 United Auto Workers Mark DePaoli
Brandon Mancilla
LaShawn English		 YouTube P P P
2[206] April 24, 2026 Council of Baptist Pastors of Detroit and Vicinity Jackie Nelson
James Williams		 YouTube P P P
3[207] May 28, 2026 Mackinac Policy Conference Nolan Finley
Stephen Henderson		 YouTube P P P
4[208] July 7, 2026 WOOD-TV Rick Albin YouTube P W P
5[209] July 27, 2026 Fox 2 Detroit Roop Raj YouTube P W P
Close

Fundraising

Italics indicate a withdrawn candidate.

More information Campaign finance reports as of July 15, 2026, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of July 15, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Abdul El-Sayed (D) $14,528,335 $11,975,573 $2,552,762
Rachel Howard (D) $10,937[g] $6,170 $4,766
Mallory McMorrow (D) $11,386,720 $9,519,089 $1,867,631
Haley Stevens (D) $11,884,632[h] $9,091,338 $2,793,294
Joe Tate (D) $243,635 $243,635 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[210]
Close

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Abdul
El-Sayed		 Mallory
McMorrow		 Haley
Stevens		 Undecided[i] Margin
270toWin[211] June 29 – July 29, 2026 July 31, 2026 46.8% 4.5% 39.4% 9.3% El-Sayed +7.4%
Decision Desk HQ[212] through July 30, 2026 August 3, 2026 52.6% — 39.6% 7.8% El-Sayed +13.0%
Race to the WH[213] through July 30, 2026 August 1, 2026 52.6% — 39.6% 7.8% El-Sayed +13.0%
RealClearPolitics[214] July 8–29, 2026 July 30, 2026 50.5% — 40.3% 9.2% El-Sayed +10.2%
FiftyPlusOne[215] through July 30, 2026 August 1, 2026 51.8% 3.8% 38.9% 5.5% El-Sayed +12.9%
Average 50.9% 4.2% 39.6% 5.3% El-Sayed +11.3%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Abdul
El-Sayed		 Mallory
McMorrow		 Haley
Stevens		 Other Undecided
SoCal Strategies (R)[216][A] July 28–30, 2026 437 (LV) ± 4.7% 56% — 39% — 5%
Zenith Research (D)[217][215][B] July 26–30, 2026 536 (LV) ± 4.2% 59%[k] — 41% — —
53% 2% 34% — 11%
Mitchell Research & Communications[218] July 28–29, 2026 406 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 4% 38% — 7%
The Public Sentiment Institute[219] July 25–29, 2026 762 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% — 36% — 14%
762 (LV) 48% — 40% — 13%
Emerson College[220][C] July 26–27, 2026 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 57%[k] 2% 41% — —
54% 2% 39% — 6%
Tavern Research (D)[221] July 26–27, 2026 914 (LV) ± 4.1% 46% 4% 36% — 14%
48% — 37% — 15%
Tulchin Research (D)[222][B] July 13–15, 2026 500 (LV) — 56% — 40% — 4%
Data for Progress (D)[223][D] July 10–14, 2026 614 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% — 41% — 5%
Glengariff Group[224][E] July 8–11, 2026 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% — 48% — 11%
Tavern Research (D)[225] July 6–8, 2026 2,211 (LV) ± 2.5% 41% 5% 38% — 16%
41% — 42% — 18%
July 5, 2026 McMorrow suspends her campaign
Quantus Insights (R)[226] June 29–30, 2026 947 (LV) ± 3.3% 41% 8% 36% — 16%
Wedgewood Polls[227] June 25–28, 2026 353 (LV) ± 5.7% 46% 9% 39% — 6%
Tulchin Research (D)[228][B] June 24–28, 2026 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 17% 27% — 9%
Peak Insights (R)[229] June 20–24, 2026 400 (LV) ± 6.0% 39% 18% 28% — 15%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[230] June 9–14, 2026 205 (LV) ± 6.9% 22% 9% 20% — 49%
Mitchell Research & Communications[231][F] June 11–13, 2026 409 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 6% 33% — 19%
Lake Research Partners (D)[232][G] May 26–28, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 19% 31% — 15%
Tulchin Research (D)[233][234][B] May 19–25, 2026 500 (LV) — 41% 18% 23% — 18%
TIPP Insights (R)[235][H] May 20–23, 2026 619 (LV) — 31% 13% 35% 1%[l] 19%
Mitchell Research[236] May 1–7, 2026 405 (LV) ± 4.9% 27% 17% 18% — 38%
Glengariff Group[237][I] April 17–19, 2026 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 23% 16% 25% 0% 36%
23%[m] 18% 25% — 34%
Emerson College[238] April 11–13, 2026 519 (LV) ± 4.3% 24% 24% 13% 3%[n] 36%
Data for Progress (D)[239][J] April 2–8, 2026 515 (LV) ± 4.0% 22% 22% 23% — 33%
Global Strategy Group (D)[240][K] March 19−22, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 25% 30% 23% — 21%
Upswing Research (D)[241][L] February 26 – March 2, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 23% 25% 27% — 25%
Impact Research (D)[242][M] February 10–16, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 26% 25% 28% — 21%
Emerson College[243] January 24–25, 2026 491 (LV) ± 4.4% 16% 22% 16% 7%[o] 38%
Mitchell Research & Communications[244] November 18–21, 2025 261 (LV) ± 6.1% 16% 24% 27% — 33%
Rosetta Stone Communications (R)[245] October 23–25, 2025 287 (LV) ± 5.8% 20% 25% 26% — 29%
NRSC (R)[246] July 4–7, 2025 582 (LV) ± 3.0% 22% 11% 24% 1%[p] 42%
Global Strategy Group (D)[247][K] May 28 − June 2, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 15% 20% 24% 4%[q] 37%
Glengariff Group[248][I] May 5–8, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 22% 14% 34% — 30%
24%[m] 12% 34% — 30%
Close
Hypothetical polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Pete
Buttigieg		 Haley
Stevens		 Gretchen
Whitmer		 Other Undecided
Mitchell Research[249][F] March 13, 2025 303 (LV) ± 5.6% — 2% 59% 22%[r] 17%
Target Insyght[250] February 3–8, 2025 344 (V) ± 5.7% 27% 4% 43% — 26%
Close

Results

County results
  El-Sayed
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Stevens
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Congressional district results
  El-Sayed
  •   50–60%
  Stevens
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%

In the primary election, El-Sayed won the election by carrying 30 of the state's 83 counties, including nine in Upper Michigan and an additional nine north of Grand Rapids. Stevens performed well in Metro Detroit, The Thumb, and much of Northern Michigan.[251] She carried the majority of the vote in Michigan's suburban areas by five percentage points, whereas El-Sayed had his strongest showing with voters aged 18–34 and those living in cities outside of Detroit.[252]

More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[253]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Abdul El-Sayed 744,952 48.45
Democratic Haley Stevens 731,160 47.55
Democratic Mallory McMorrow (withdrawn) 61,516 4.0
Total votes 1,537,628 100.0
Close

Republican primary

Campaign

Michigan was considered one of the top Republican senate pickup opportunities for the 2026 cycle, and national Republicans quickly coalesced around their 2024 senate nominee, former congressman Mike Rogers, as their preferred candidate. Rogers' only significant opposition was from former co-chair of the Michigan Republican Party Bernadette Smith, who had vacated this position one week prior to the launch of her candidacy. Fox News labeled her campaign as a "longshot" due to Donald Trump having already endorsed Rogers prior to Smith's entrance into the race, and because of her criminal record, which included a no-contest plea of felony welfare fraud and a guilty conviction for seriously injuring a ten-year-old boy in an automobile accident.[254][better source needed] Smith did not make the primary ballot after being disqualified by the Board of State Canvassers for not submitting the required number of signatures, thus allowing Rogers to win the nomination uncontested.[255]

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Not on ballot

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Mike Rogers
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Organizations

Fundraising

Italics indicate a withdrawn or disqualified candidate.

More information Campaign finance reports as of July 15, 2026, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of July 15, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Fred Heurtebise (R) $10,058 $10,058 $0
Mike Rogers (R) $10,898,177 $6,680,643 $4,473,237
Genevieve Scott (R) $83,079[t] $80,540 $2,538
Bernadette Smith (R) $77,239 $73,172 $4,067
Source: Federal Election Commission[210]
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Rogers		 Bernadette
Smith		 Other Undecided
Emerson College[238] April 11–13, 2026 452 (LV) ± 4.6% 55% 1% 6%[u] 38%
Close
Hypothetical polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Tudor
Dixon		 Bill
Huizenga		 Mike
Rogers		 Other Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[272][273][N] June 17–19, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 20% 48% – 32%
Glengariff Group[248][I] May 5–8, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.0% – 17% 61% – 22%
Mitchell Research[249][F] March 13, 2025 281 (LV) ± 5.8% 28% 9% 25% 14%[v] 24%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[274] February 17–19, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% – 36% – 24%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[253]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Rogers 883,328 100.0
Total votes 883,328 100.0
Close

Third-parties and independents

Independents

Not on ballot

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of July 15, 2026, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of July 15, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
TJ Stephens (I) $1,000[w] $220 $779
Source: Federal Election Commission[210]
Close

Libertarian Party

Nominee

  • Lydia Christensen, CEO[277]

Green Party

Nominee

  • Douglas P. Marsh, journalist and Green nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024[277]

U.S. Taxpayers Party

Nominee

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[278] Tossup August 20, 2026
Decision Desk HQ[279] Lean D August 25, 2026
The Economist[280][x] Tossup August 5, 2026
FiftyPlusOne[281] Lean D August 3, 2026
Fox News[282] Tossup August 18, 2026
Inside Elections[283] Tossup April 23, 2026
Race To The WH[284] Tilt D August 19, 2026
RealClearPolitics[285] Tossup May 19, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball[286] Tossup August 19, 2026
Silver Bulletin[287] Lean D August 11, 2026
Close

Post-primary endorsements

Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Mike Rogers (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Party officials
Individuals
Organizations
Declined to endorse
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators

Debates

More information No., Date ...
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
El-Sayed Rogers
1[315] September 15, 2026 Fox 2 Detroit
Michigan Debate Commission		 Roop Raj TBA I I
2[315] October 8, 2026 WOOD-TV Rick Albin TBA I I
Close

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2026, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Abdul El-Sayed (D) $14,528,335 $11,975,573 $2,552,762
Mike Rogers (R) $10,898,177 $6,680,643 $4,473,237
Source: Federal Election Commission[316]
Close

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll aggregation Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Abdul
El-Sayed (D)		 Mike
Rogers (R)		 Other/
Undecided[y]		 Margin
270toWin[211] July 24 – August 17, 2026 August 20, 2026 45.8% 45.0% 9.2% El-Sayed +0.8%
Decision Desk HQ[317] through August 17, 2026 August 20, 2026 45.4% 43.4% 11.2% El-Sayed +2.0%
FiftyPlusOne[318] through August 17, 2026 August 20, 2026 45.5% 44.2% 10.3% El-Sayed +1.3%
Race to the WH[213] through August 17, 2026 August 20, 2026 45.3% 44.9% 9.8% El-Sayed +0.4%
RealClearPolitics[214] July 24 – August 17, 2026 August 20, 2026 45.7% 45.0% 9.3% El-Sayed +0.7%
Silver Bulletin[287] through August 17, 2026 August 20, 2026 46.4% 45.4% 8.2% El-Sayed +1.0%
Average 45.7% 44.7% 9.6% El-Sayed +1.0%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Abdul
El-Sayed (D)		 Mike
Rogers (R)		 Other Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[319] August 11–17, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 39% 6%[z] 9%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[320][O]		 August 9–11, 2026 877 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 47% — 5%
TIPP Insights (R)[321][H] August 6–10, 2026 1,528 (RV) ± 2.6% 43% 39% 7%[aa] 11%
1,215 (LV) ± 2.7% 45% 42% 7%[aa] 6%
GBAO (D)[322][P] August 6–10, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 44% — 6%
Beacon Research (D)/
Shaw & Co. Research (R)[323][Q]		 August 6–10, 2026 1,006 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 51% — 2%
August 4, 2026 Primary elections
EPIC-MRA[324][F] July 24–31, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 46% — 11%
SoCal Strategies (R)[216][A] July 28–30, 2026 640 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 42% — 17%
Mitchell Research & Communications[325] July 28–29, 2026 672 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 45% — 10%
Glengariff Group[326][R] July 22–24, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 49% 1% 11%
Quantus Insights (R)[226] June 29–30, 2026 947 (LV) ± 3.3% 45% 44% 3% 8%
Data for Progress (D)[327][S] June 15–22, 2026 709 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% — 7%
Zenith Research (D)[328][T] June 11–14, 2026 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 42% — 13%
Mitchell Research & Communications[329][F] June 11–13, 2026 827 (LV) ± 3.4% 47% 42% — 11%
Tulchin Research (D)[330][B] June 2–4, 2026 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 41% — 13%
TIPP Insights (R)[235][H] May 20–23, 2026 1,456 (RV) ± 2.7% 40% 40% 7%[aa] 13%
1,163 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 42% 6%[ab] 9%
Mitchell Research[331][F] May 1–7, 2026 607 (LV) ± 6.0% 41% 42% — 17%
Glengariff Group[332][I] April 28 – May 1, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 45% — 15%
42%[m] 45% — 13%
Emerson College[243] January 24–25, 2026 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 43% — 14%
Glengariff Group[333][E] January 2–6, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47%[m] 43% — 10%
42% 48% — 10%
Mitchell Research & Communications[244] November 18–21, 2025 616 (LV) ± 3.7% 38% 41% — 22%
Rosetta Stone Communications (R)[245] October 23–25, 2025 637 (LV) ± 3.9% 31% 45% — 24%
Glengariff Group[248][I] May 5–8, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 47% — 12%
45%[m] 47% — 8%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Haley Stevens vs. Mike Rogers

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll aggregation Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Haley
Stevens (D)		 Mike
Rogers (R)		 Other/
Undecided[ac]		 Margin
270toWin[211] July 22–31, 2026 August 2, 2026 44.3% 44.3% 11.4% Tie
Race to the WH[213] through July 31, 2026 August 2, 2026 44.6% 43.4% 12.0% Stevens +1.2%
RealClearPolitics[214] May 20 – July 31, 2026 August 2, 2026 45.0% 43.3% 11.7% Stevens +1.7%
Average 44.6% 43.7% 11.7% Stevens +0.9%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Haley
Stevens (D)		 Mike
Rogers (R)		 Other Undecided
EPIC-MRA[324][F] July 24–31, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% — 14%
SoCal Strategies (R)[216][A] July 28–30, 2026 640 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 42% — 14%
Mitchell Research & Communications[325] July 28–29, 2026 672 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 46% — 11%
Glengariff Group[326][R] July 22–24, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% — 9%
Quantus Insights (R)[226] June 29–30, 2026 947 (LV) ± 3.3% 45% 44% 3% 8%
Data for Progress (D)[327][S] June 15–22, 2026 709 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% — 9%
Zenith Research (D)[328][T] June 11–14, 2026 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 42% — 13%
Mitchell Research & Communications[329][F] June 11–13, 2026 827 (LV) ± 3.4% 41% 45% — 13%
TIPP Insights (R)[235][H] May 20–23, 2026 1,456 (RV) ± 2.7% 45% 38% 6%[ab] 11%
1,163 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 5%[ad] 6%
Mitchell Research[331][F] May 1–7, 2026 607 (LV) ± 6.0% 39% 42% — 19%
Glengariff Group[332][I] April 28 – May 1, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% — 15%
44%[m] 44% — 11%
Emerson College[243] January 24–25, 2026 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 42% — 11%
Glengariff Group[333][E] January 2–6, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47%[m] 42% — 11%
44% 44% — 12%
Mitchell Research & Communications[244] November 18–21, 2025 616 (LV) ± 3.7% 40% 42% — 18%
EPIC-MRA[334] November 6–11, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% — 14%
Rosetta Stone Communications (R)[245] October 23–25, 2025 637 (LV) ± 3.9% 40% 47% — 13%
Normington Petts (D)[335][336][U] June 12–16, 2025 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 45% — 8%
Glengariff Group[248][I] May 5–8, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% — 11%
49%[m] 43% — 8%
Target Insyght[250][F] March 3–6, 2025 600 (V) ± 4.0% 35% 41% — 24%
Close

Mallory McMorrow vs. Mike Rogers

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll aggregation Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Mallory
McMorrow (D)		 Mike
Rogers (R)		 Other/
Undecided[ae]		 Margin
270toWin[211] May 20 – June 30, 2026 July 1, 2026 43.5% 44.0% 12.5% Rogers +0.5%
Race to the WH[213] through June 30, 2026 July 2, 2026 43.4% 44.2% 12.4% Rogers +0.8%
RealClearPolitics[214] April 28 – June 30, 2026 July 2, 2026 42.8% 43.3% 13.9% Rogers +0.5%
Average 43.2% 43.8% 13.0% Rogers +0.6%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Mallory
McMorrow (D)		 Mike
Rogers (R)		 Other Undecided
Quantus Insights (R)[226] June 29–30, 2026 947 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 3% 8%
Zenith Research (D)[328][T] June 11–14, 2026 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% — 13%
Mitchell Research & Communications[329][F] June 11–13, 2026 827 (LV) ± 3.4% 41% 47% — 12%
TIPP Insights (R)[235][H] May 20–23, 2026 1,456 (RV) ± 2.7% 42% 39% 6%[ab] 13%
1,163 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 42% 5%[ad] 8%
Mitchell Research[331][F] May 1–7, 2026 607 (LV) ± 6.0% 41% 43% — 16%
Glengariff Group[332][I] April 28 – May 1, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 43% — 16%
43%[m] 43% — 14%
Emerson College[243] January 24–25, 2026 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 43% — 11%
Glengariff Group[333][E] January 2–6, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46%[m] 43% — 11%
42% 46% — 12%
Mitchell Research & Communications[244] November 18–21, 2025 616 (LV) ± 3.7% 38% 44% — 19%
EPIC-MRA[334] November 6–11, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 42% — 15%
Rosetta Stone Communications (R)[245] October 23–25, 2025 637 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 46% — 15%
Normington Petts (D)[335][336][U] June 12–16, 2025 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 48% — 8%
Glengariff Group[248][I] May 5–8, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 46% — 12%
46%[m] 44% — 10%
Close

Haley Stevens vs. Bill Huizenga

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Haley
Stevens (D)		 Bill
Huizenga (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Glengariff Group[248][I] May 5–8, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 39% 16%
48%[m] 39% 13%
Close

Abdul El-Sayed vs. Bill Huizenga

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Abdul
El-Sayed (D)		 Bill
Huizenga (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Glengariff Group[248][I] May 5–8, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 41% 18%
44%[m] 41% 15%
Close

Mallory McMorrow vs. Bill Huizenga

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Mallory
McMorrow (D)		 Bill
Huizenga (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Glengariff Group[248][I] May 5–8, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 41% 18%
45%[m] 40% 15%
Close

Dana Nessel vs. Mike Rogers

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Dana
Nessel (D)		 Mike
Rogers (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Mitchell Research[249][F] March 13, 2025 688 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 44% 11%
Close

Dana Nessel vs. Tudor Dixon

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Dana
Nessel (D)		 Tudor
Dixon (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Mitchell Research[249][F] March 13, 2025 688 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 45% 10%
Close

Pete Buttigieg vs. Mike Rogers

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Mike
Rogers (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Target Insyght[250][F] March 3–6, 2025 600 (V) ± 4.0% 46% 44% 10%
EPIC-MRA[337] February 3–8, 2025 600 (V) ± 4.0% 41% 47% 12%
Close

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Brian Posthumus

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Gretchen
Whitmer (D)		 Brian
Posthumus (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Mitchell Research[249][F] March 13, 2025 688 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 41% 12%
Close

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Mike Rogers

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Gretchen
Whitmer (D)		 Mike
Rogers (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Mitchell Research[249][F] March 13, 2025 688 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 44% 9%
Target Insyght[250][F] March 3–6, 2025 600 (V) ± 4.0% 42% 41% 17%
Close

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Peter Meijer

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Gretchen
Whitmer (D)		 Peter
Meijer (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Mitchell Research[249][F] March 13, 2025 688 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 40% 14%
Close

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Tudor Dixon

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Gretchen
Whitmer (D)		 Tudor
Dixon (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Mitchell Research[249][F] March 13, 2025 688 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 46% 7%
Close

Generic Democrat vs. Mike Rogers

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[j]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Mike
Rogers (R)		 Undecided
GQR (D)[338] June 13–18, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 42% 8%
Close

Notes

  1. [a]
    Bonior was the majority whip from 1991 to 1995 and minority whip from 1995 to 2002
  2. [b]
  3. [c]
  4. [d]
  5. [e]
  6. [f]
  7. [g]
    $3,287 of this total has been self-funded by Howard
  8. [h]
    $1.5 million of this total was transferred from Stevens' House campaign accounts
  9. [i]
    Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  10. [j]
    Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  11. [k]
    With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  12. [l]
    Rachel Howard with 1%; Travis Zollner with 0%
  13. [m]
    Among "definite voters"
  14. [n]
    Travis Zollner with 3%; Rachel Howard with 0%
  15. [o]
    "Someone else" with 5%; Rachel Howard with 2%; Travis Zollner with 0%
  16. [p]
    Joe Tate with 1%
  17. [q]
    Joe Tate with 4%
  18. [r]
    Dana Nessel with 13%; Mallory McMorrow with 6%; Hillary Scholten with 3%
  19. [s]
    Both the national and state chapters endorsed Rogers
  20. [t]
    $48,669 of this total has been self-funded by Scott
  21. [u]
    Kent Benham and Andrew Kamal with 2%; Frederick Heurtebise and Genevieve Peters Scott with 1%
  22. [v]
    Peter Meijer with 8%; Kevin Rinke with 4%; Bryan Posthumus with 2%; Jonathon Lindsey with 0%
  23. [w]
    $500 of this total has been self-funded by Stephens
  24. [x]
    The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
  25. [y]
    Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  26. [z]
    Other with 4%; Refuse with 2%
  27. [aa]
    "Someone else" with 7%
  28. [ab]
    "Someone else" with 6%
  29. [ac]
    Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  30. [ad]
    "Someone else" with 5%
  31. [ae]
    Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    Poll sponsored by Red Eagle Politics
  2. [B]
    Poll commissioned by Fighting for Michigan, a pro-El-Sayed super PAC
  3. [C]
    Poll sponsored by WLNS 6 News and WOOD-TV
  4. [D]
    Poll sponsored by American Priorities, which supports El-Sayed
  5. [E]
    Poll conducted for The Detroit News, which supports Stevens, and WDIV-TV
  6. [F]
    Poll conducted for MIRS News
  7. [G]
    Poll sponsored by El-Sayed's campaign
  8. [H]
    Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald Trump.
  9. [I]
    Poll sponsored by The Detroit Regional Chamber
  10. [J]
    Poll sponsored by Zeteo and Drop Site News
  11. [K]
    Poll sponsored by McMorrow's campaign
  12. [L]
    Poll commissioned by Public First Action
  13. [M]
    Poll sponsored by Stevens's campaign
  14. [N]
    Poll commissioned by First Principles Digital PAC, which supports Rogers
  15. [O]
    Poll commissioned by AARP
  16. [P]
    Poll sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.S. Senate
  17. [Q]
    Poll conducted for Fox News
  18. [R]
    Poll commissioned jointly by the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan.
  19. [S]
    Poll sponsored by the Working Families Party, which supports El-Sayed
  20. [T]
    Poll commissioned by Common Defense, which supports El-Sayed
  21. [U]
    Poll sponsored by Yes Michigan Super PAC

References

External links

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