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2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota

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The 2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Minnesota. Democratic lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican former journalist Michele Tafoya are the nominees for their respective parties. Democratic incumbent Tina Smith is not seeking a second full term.[1]

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota
← 2020
November 3, 2026
2032 →
 
Nominee Peggy Flanagan Michele Tafoya
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)


Close

After Smith announced she would not run for re-election, Flanagan and congresswoman Angie Craig sought the Democratic nomination, which Flanagan won on August 11 with 59% of the vote. Tafoya won the Republican nomination with 52.1% of the vote over Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze and former basketball player Royce White.

This will be the first Senate election in Minnesota without an incumbent since 2006.[2] Republicans have not won a Senate election in Minnesota since 2002.

Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary

Background and campaign

Former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman was reportedly considering running for the seat before her assassination in June 2025.[3]

The Democratic primary election between Flanagan and Craig was widely seen as a part of the national struggle between the Democratic Party's progressive and moderate factions since the 2024 U.S. elections, with endorsements split by ideology.[4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] Flanagan has rejected accepting donations from corporate PACs or the pro-Israel lobby group AIPAC while Craig has defended accepting them. Newsweek called the primary contest an "ideological proxy fight between Bernie Sanders-style progressivism and Bill Clinton-esque 'Third Way' centrism".[12]

Craig reportedly had the private backing of the Democratic Senate leadership, including Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), but they did not endorse her.[13][14][15][16][11]

Flanagan and Craig condemned the killing of Renée Good by an ICE agent amid Trump's mass deportation campaign. Flanagan said she supported a "complete and total overhaul" of ICE and criticized Craig for being "politically expedient" and voting for the Laken Riley Act and a resolution condemning the 2025 Boulder fire attack and expressing gratitude to ICE agents.[17][18] Craig said she stood by her votes and that "Flanagan ... is twisting this and trying to create some sort of political advantage ... that is disgusting".[19][20] Flanagan later expressed support for dismantling ICE and replacing it. Craig called that stance extreme and said it would push away independents.[21][22]

On May 27, 2026, Craig announced her withdrawal from the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party's official endorsement process days before the statewide endorsing convention, saying it "does not reflect the full scope of the party...and the purple state."[23] Craig was on the primary ballot without the party's endorsement.[24] The change followed reporting on an influx of new participants at the state's senate district conventions who supported Flanagan in the backlash against ICE.[25] The Flanagan campaign reported that it was on track to win the endorsement with the support of over 75% of delegates.[26] Flanagan won the endorsement by acclamation at the convention on May 30.[27]

On August 11, 2026, the Associated Press and NBC News called the race for Flanagan, who defeated Craig and others.[28][29]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Angie Craig
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Peggy Flanagan
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
  • 5 state senators[a]
  • 13 state representatives[b]
Local officials
Party officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Declined to endorse

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives
Statewide officials

Fundraising

Italics indicate a withdrawn candidate.

More information Campaign finance reports as of July 22, 2026, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of July 22, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Angie Craig (DFL) $12,746,618 $9,179,437 $3,567,180
Peggy Flanagan (DFL) $6,516,273 $5,457,669 $1,058,604
Source: Federal Election Commission[119]
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Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Angie
Craig		 Peggy
Flanagan		 Other Undecided
KTSP/SurveyUSA[120] July 29 – August 4, 2026 513 (LV) ± 5.3% 42% 40% 3% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[121][A] July 23–24, 2026 672 (LV) — 32% 46% — 22%
KSTP/SurveyUSA[122] July 15–20, 2026 513 (LV) ± 5.0% 40% 40% 4% 16%
Public Policy Polling (D)[123][A] June 25–26, 2026 604 (LV) — 36% 43% — 22%
KSTP/SurveyUSA[124] June 11–16, 2026 513 (LV) ± 5.2% 41% 36% 6% 18%
GQR (D)[125][126][B] May 31 – June 3, 2026 500 (LV) — 38% 55% — 7%
Global Strategy Group (D)[127][128][C] May 26–28, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 42% — 13%
Public Policy Polling (D)[129][130][A] April 29–30, 2026 652 (LV) ± 3.8% 33% 44% — 23%
GQR (D)[131][B] January 14–20, 2026 600 (LV) — 36% 49% — 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[132][D] January 16–17, 2026 976 (LV) ± 3.1% 28% 40% — 31%
Impact Research (D)[133][E] January 13–15, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 45% 3% 9%
NRSC (R)[134] July 4–7, 2025 559 (LV) ± 3.3% 24% 30% — 45%
Public Policy Polling (D)[135] February 14–15, 2025 668 (LV) — 22% 52% — 27%
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Debate

More information No., Date ...
2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota Democratic primary debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic–Farmer–Labor Democratic–Farmer–Labor
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Angie Craig Peggy Flanagan
1 June 19, 2026 MPR News Eric Eskola
Cathy Wurzer		 YouTube P P
2 July 27, 2026 MPR News Brian Bakst YouTube P P
Close

Results

Results by county
  Flanagan
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Craig
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Results by precinct
  Flanagan
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Craig
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Anderson
  •   40-50%
  •   60-70%
  Nord
  •   >90%
  Kalberer
  •   >90%
  Tie
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50%
  No votes
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary results[136]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic (DFL) Peggy Flanagan 411,853 59.0
Democratic (DFL) Angie Craig 274,920 39.4
Democratic (DFL) Kurt Michael Anderson 4,521 0.6
Democratic (DFL) Billy Nord 2,896 0.4
Democratic (DFL) George H. Kalberer 2,076 0.3
Democratic (DFL) Peter John Murgic 1,661 0.2
Total votes 697,927 100.0
Close

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Did not file

  • Alycia Gruenhagen, food co-op manager and Democratic candidate for Minnesota's 7th congressional district in 2020 and 2022, Republican candidate for Minnesota US Senate 2024[140]
  • Mike Ruoho, business owner[141]
  • Mark York, farmer, computer scientist, and former White House Fellow[142]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Adam Schwarze
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Polítical parties
Michele Tafoya
U.S. senators
Individuals
Organizations
Royce White
Individuals

Fundraising

Italics indicate a withdrawn candidate.

More information Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2026, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
David Hann (R) $133,465 $133,465 $0
Ray Petersen (R) $973 $973 $0
Mike Ruoho (R) $45 $550 $0
Adam Schwarze (R) $1,394,222 $1,183,000 $211,222
Michele Tafoya (R) $4,669,609 $2,588,977 $2,080,632
Tom Weiler (R) $219,869 $76,099 $145,530
Royce White (R) $649,510 $740,387 $48,231
Mark York (R) $74,070 $69,528 $4,542
Source: Federal Election Commission[119]
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Adam
Schwarze		 Michele
Tafoya		 Tom
Weiler		 Royce
White		 Other Undecided
Deep Root Analytics (R)[163][F] August 3–4, 2026 652 (LV) ± 3.8% 18% 47% – 15% 4% 15%
KSTP/SurveyUSA[120] July 29 – August 4, 2026 458 (LV) ± 5.6% 5% 48% 3% 13% 8% 24%
KSTP/SurveyUSA[122] July 15–20, 2026 478 (LV) ± 5.4% 5% 41% 7% 10% 8% 28%
KSTP/SurveyUSA[164] June 11–16, 2026 450 (LV) ± 5.4% 7% 36% 7% 15% 27% 8%
Quantus Insights (R)[165] May 6–9, 2026 663 (LV) ± 4.0% 4% 52% 2% 9% 6% 27%
Peak Insights (R)[166][G] January 31 – February 1, 2026 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 4% 41% 1% 11% 9%[d] 34%
Close

Results

Results by county
  Tafoya
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Schwarze
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Results by precinct
  Tafoya
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Schwarze
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  White
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Weiler
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   >90%
  Lacey
  •   60-70%
  •   >90%
  Munro
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   60-70%
  •   >90%
  Gail
  •   40-50%
  •   60-70%
  •   >90%
  Carney
  •   30-40%
  •   >90%
  Hassan
  •   >90%
  Tie
  •   10-20%
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50%
  No votes
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[136]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Michele Tafoya 211,813 52.1
Republican Adam Schwarze 97,470 24.0
Republican Royce White 45,374 11.2
Republican Tom Weiler 24,247 6.0
Republican Joyce Lacey 7,474 1.8
Republican Patrick Munro 7,096 1.7
Republican Cynthia Gail 5,929 1.5
Republican Bob Carney Jr. 5,678 1.4
Republican Ahmad R. Hassan 1,742 0.4
Total votes 406,823 100.0
Close

Independents and others

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[170] Likely D September 15, 2026
Decision Desk HQ[171] Likely D September 16, 2026
The Economist[172][e] Lean D September 16, 2026
FiftyPlusOne[173] Likely D September 16, 2026
Fox News[174] Likely D August 18, 2026
Inside Elections[175] Likely D September 3, 2026
Race to the WH[176] Lean D September 18, 2026
RealClearPolitics[177] Tossup September 16, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball[178] Likely D August 26, 2026
Silver Bulletin[179] Likely D August 21, 2026
Split Ticket[180] Likely D September 11, 2026
Close

Post-primary endorsements

Peggy Flanagan (DFL)
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Michele Tafoya (R)
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls
More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Peggy
Flanagan (DFL)		 Michele
Tafoya (R)		 Other/
Undecided[f]		 Margin
270toWin[188] August 13 – September 16, 2026 September 17, 2026 44.3% 42.7% 13.0% Flanagan +1.6%
Decision Desk HQ[189] through September 15, 2026 September 17, 2026 45.0% 42.4% 12.6% Flanagan +2.6%
FiftyPlusOne[190] through September 15, 2026 September 17, 2026 44.2% 41.4% 14.4% Flanagan +2.8%
Race to the WH[191] through September 15, 2026 September 17, 2026 44.7% 42.2% 13.2%[g] Flanagan +2.6%
RealClearPolitics[192] August 31 – September 15, 2026 September 15, 2026 44.3% 42.5% 13.2% Flanagan +1.8%
Silver Bulletin[179] through September 15, 2026 September 17, 2026 45.0% 42.2% 12.8% Flanagan +2.8%
Average 44.6% 42.2% 13.2% Flanagan +2.4%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Peggy
Flanagan (DFL)		 Michele
Tafoya (R)		 Other Undecided
co/efficient (R)[193] September 14–15, 2026 833 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 42% 4%[h] 11%
Quantus Insights (R)[194] September 8–10, 2026 720 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 44% – 7%
KSTP/SurveyUSA[195] September 9–14, 2026 654 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 42% 4%[i] 12%
TIPP Insights (R)[196][H] August 31 – September 2, 2026 1,494 (RV) ± 2.7% 40% 38% 8%[j] 14%
1,201 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 42% 6%[k] 8%
Deep Root Analytics (R)[197] August 17–18, 2026 597 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% 45% – 5%
KTSP/SurveyUSA[198] August 13–17, 2026 661 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 41% 2%[l] 11%
August 11, 2026 Primary elections are held
Impact Research (D)[199][E] May 26–28, 2026 808 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 44% – 7%
Emerson College[200] February 6–8, 2026 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% 4%[m] 8%
Impact Research (D)[201][E] July 8–11, 2025 604 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% – 7%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Angie Craig vs. Michele Tafoya

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Angie
Craig (DFL)		 Michele
Tafoya (R)		 Undecided
Impact Research (D)[199][E] May 26–28, 2026 808 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 44% 7%
Emerson College[200] February 6–8, 2026 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 40% 13%
Impact Research (D)[201][E] July 8–11, 2025 604 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%
Close

Angie Craig vs. Generic Republican

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Angie
Craig (DFL)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[202] September 15–16, 2025 1,015 (V) — 47% 43% 10%
Close

Peggy Flanagan vs. Generic Republican

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Peggy
Flanagan (DFL)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[202] September 15–16, 2025 1,015 (V) — 46% 44% 10%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL) Peggy Flanagan
Republican Michele Tafoya
Independent Marisa Simonetti
Libertarian Rebecca Whiting
Write-in
Total votes 100.0
Close

See also

Notes

  1. [a]
  2. [b]
  3. [c]
    Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. [d]
    David Hann with 3%; "Someone else" with 6%
  5. [e]
    The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
  6. [f]
    Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. [g]
    Marisa Simonetti (I) with 2.2%; Rebecca Whiting (L) with 1.7%
  8. [h]
    Rebecca Whiting (L) and Marisa Simonetti (I) with 2%
  9. [i]
    Rebecca Whiting (L) and Marisa Simonetti (I) each with 2%
  10. [j]
    Marisa Simonetti (I) with 4%; "Someone else" with 3%; Rebecca Whiting (L) with 1%
  11. [k]
    Marisa Simonetti (I) with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%; Rebecca Whiting (L) with 1%
  12. [l]
    Marisa Simonetti (I) & Rebecca Whiting (L) with 1%
  13. [m]
    "Someone else" with 4%

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    Poll sponsored by the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which supports Flanagan
  2. [B]
    Poll sponsored by Flanagan's campaign
  3. [C]
    Poll sponsored by the North Star Dawn PAC, which supports Craig
  4. [D]
    Polling commissioned by Clear Voice Minnesota, which supports Flanagan
  5. [E]
    Poll sponsored by Craig's campaign
  6. [F]
    Poll sponsored by Minnesota Forward PAC, which supports Tafoya's campaign.
  7. [G]
    Poll sponsored by Tafoya's campaign
  8. [H]
    Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers

References

External links

Related Articles

Timelines

Top Qs

Fact Checks