2026 United States Senate election in Texas
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Republican state attorney general Ken Paxton and Democratic state representative James Talarico are the nominees for their respective parties.
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November 3, 2026
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Four-term Republican incumbent John Cornyn sought re-election, but was challenged for the nomination by Paxton. After no candidate secured a majority of the vote in the March 3 primary, Paxton, aided by a late endorsement from President Donald Trump, defeated Cornyn with 63.8% of the vote in a runoff on May 26. Cornyn was one of two incumbent senators to lose renomination in 2026, along with Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, and the first incumbent senator from Texas to lose renomination since 1970. In the Democratic primary, Talarico won the nomination with 52.4% of the vote over congresswoman Jasmine Crockett.
Democrats have not won a Senate election in Texas since 1988.
Republican primary
Background
Incumbent senator John Cornyn, who was seeking a fifth term, faced a competitive primary from attorney general Ken Paxton which progressed to a runoff after no candidate reached a majority in the first round. The two had clashed publicly since 2022, with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine, DREAM Act for DACA beneficiaries and playing a leading role in the passage of the bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school massacre. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton's legal troubles, perceived character flaws and corruption, and his 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House before the Senate later acquitted him of all charges.[1][2][3][4]
The race has been seen as a key contest between the Texas Republican Party's establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction.[1] In recent years, insurgent hard-right candidates have steadily gained ground, often ousting more traditional GOP officials. Polling reflects this divide: Paxton holds a commanding lead among "Trump Movement" voters, while Cornyn performs better with the smaller group of "Traditional Republicans".[5] On May 19, 2026, Donald Trump announced his endorsement for Paxton[6], while previously describing both Paxton and Cornyn as good friends.[7] His influence was widely seen as a key factor in determining the primary winner.[8] He had previously criticized Cornyn as a "hopeless" RINO (Republican in name only) for supporting the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, an attack Paxton's campaign highlighted in their ads.[9][10] Ted Cruz, the junior senator, avoided taking a side in the primary, though he previously endorsed Cornyn in 2020.[11]
The election takes place amid efforts by the state Republican Party to restrict its primary to registered members. Legislation to allow closed primaries failed, prompting the party to sue the state, claiming the current law violates the First Amendment.[12] Despite serving as the state's attorney general, Paxton declined to defend the law in court, drawing criticism from those who argued he would gain electorally from a closed primary.[13]
Candidates
Nominee
- Ken Paxton, attorney general of Texas (2015–present)[14]
Eliminated in runoff
- John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. senator (2002–present)[15]
Eliminated in primary
- John Adefope[16]
- Anna Bender, IT analyst[16][17]
- Virgil Bierschwale, software developer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[18][19]
- Sara Canady, former Wilson County Justice of the Peace and candidate for Texas's 15th congressional district in 2022[16][17]
- Wesley Hunt, U.S. representative from Texas's 38th congressional district (2023–present)[20] (endorsed Paxton)[21]
- Gulrez "Gus" Khan, entrepreneur, candidate for Texas's 32nd congressional district in 2024, and candidate for mayor of Lubbock in 2022[18][19]
Withdrawn
- Alexander Duncan, police officer[22]
- Rennie Mann, president of the Richland Springs school board[16][23]
- Barrett McNabb, chiropractic business owner (ran for U.S. House)[24]
- Tony Schmoker, realtor[16][18]
- Leo Wyatt[16][18]
Endorsements
Executive branch officials
- Susan Combs, former U.S. assistant secretary of the interior (2019–2020) and comptroller of Texas (2007–2015)[25]
- Donald Evans, former U.S. secretary of commerce (2001–2005)[26]
- Kay Bailey Hutchison, former U.S. ambassador to NATO (2017–2021) and U.S. senator from Texas (1993–2013)[27]
- Rick Perry, former U.S. secretary of energy (2017–2019) and governor of Texas (2000–2015)[28]
- Mike Pompeo, former U.S. secretary of state (2018–2021)[29][n 1]
- Pamela Willeford, former U.S. ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein (2003–2006)[25]
U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, Senate majority whip (2025–present) from Wyoming (2007–present)[30]
- Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)[30]
- Katie Britt, Alabama (2023–present)[31]
- Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)[30]
- Steve Daines, Montana (2015–present)[32]
- Phil Gramm, former Texas (1985–2002)[33]
- Bill Hagerty, Tennessee (2021–present)[34]
- John Hoeven, North Dakota (2011–present)[35]
- Lindsey Graham, South Carolina (2003–present)[31]
- Mike Lee, Utah (2011–present)[36]
- Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)[30]
- Pete Ricketts, Nebraska (2023–present)[32]
- Rick Scott, Florida (2019–present)[34]
- Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)[32]
- Tim Sheehy, Montana (2025–present)[32]
- John Thune, Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)[37]
- Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)[30]
U.S. representatives
- Bill Archer, former TX-07 (1971–2001)[38]
- Joe Barton, former TX-06 (1985–2019)[39]
- Henry Bonilla, former TX-23 (1993–2007)[38]
- Kevin Brady, former TX-08 (1997–2023)[38]
- Michael Burgess, former TX-26 (2003–2025)[38]
- Quico Canseco, former TX-23 (2011–2013)[38]
- Mike Conaway, former TX-11 (2005–2021)[38]
- John Culberson, former TX-07 (2001–2019)[38]
- Tom DeLay, former House majority leader (2003–2005) from TX-22 (1985–2006)[38]
- Jake Ellzey, TX-06 (2021–present)[40]
- Bill Flores, former TX-17 (2011–2021)[38]
- Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the House (1995–1999) from GA-06 (1979–1999)[41][n 1]
- Louie Gohmert, former TX-01 (2005–2023)[39][n 1]
- Craig Goldman, TX-12 (2025–present)[42]
- Jeb Hensarling, former TX-05 (2003–2019)[38]
- French Hill, AR-02 (2015–present)[30]
- Kenny Marchant, former TX-24 (2005–2021)[38]
- Michael McCaul, TX-10 (2005–present)[25]
- Nathaniel Moran, TX-01 (2023–present)[43][n 1]
- Pete Olson, former TX-22 (2009–2021)[38]
- Ted Poe, former TX-02 (2005–2019)[38]
- Pete Sessions, TX-17 (2021–present) and former TX-32 (1997–2019)[43][n 1]
- Lamar Smith, former TX-21 (1987–2019)[38]
- Mac Thornberry, former TX-13 (1995–2021)[38]
- Randy Weber, TX-14 (2013–present)[43][n 1]
- Roger Williams, TX-25 (2013–present)[43][n 1]
Statewide officials
- Jeffrey S. Boyd, former justice of the Texas Supreme Court (2012–2025)[25]
- Harriet O'Neill, former justice of the Texas Supreme Court (1999–2010)[25]
State legislators
- Charles Perry, president pro tempore of the Texas Senate (2025–present) from SD-28 (2014–present)[43][n 1]
- Robert Nichols, SD-03 (2007–present)[43][n 1]
- 22 current state representatives[a]
- 8 former state representatives[b]
Local officials
- Jim Darling, former mayor of McAllen (2013–2021) (Democratic)[48]
- J.E. "Eddie" Guerra, sheriff of Hidalgo County (2014–present) (Democratic)[49]
- Mattie Parker, mayor of Fort Worth (2021–present)[50]
- Dan Pope, former mayor of Lubbock (2016–2022)[46]
- Betsy Price, former mayor of Fort Worth (2011–2021)[50]
- Pete Saenz, former mayor of Laredo (2014–2022) (Democratic)[48]
- Javier Villalobos, mayor of McAllen (2021–present)[48]
Individuals
- Ayaan Hirsi Ali, conservative activist and former member of the Dutch House of Representatives (2003–2006)[51]
- Max Lucado, pastor[52]
- Jim McIngvale, businessman[53]
Labor unions
- Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas[54]
- Dallas Police Association[39]
- National Border Patrol Council[34]
- Seafarers International Union-AGLIWD[55][n 1]
Organizations
- AIPAC[56]
- American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons[57]
- American Ambulance Association[57]
- ClearPath Foundation[58]
- Independent Bankers Association of Texas[59]
- National Federation of Independent Business[60]
- National Association of Realtors[61]
- National Association of Home Builders[62]
- National Republican Senatorial Committee[63]
- Republican Jewish Coalition[64]
- Senate Leadership Fund[32]
- Texas Alliance for Life[65]
- Texas Association of Manufacturers[62]
- Texas Association of Realtors[61]
- Texas Chemistry Council[62]
- Texas Farm Bureau[66]
- Texas Homebuilders Association[62]
- Texas Medical Association[67]
- Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association[66]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[68]
Newspapers
Executive branch officials
- Steve Bannon, former senior counselor to the president (2017)[74]
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[75][n 1]
U.S. representatives
- Eric Burlison, MO-07 (2023–present)[39][n 1]
- Eli Crane, AZ-02 (2023–present)[39][n 1] (previously endorsed Hunt)[76]
- Brandon Gill, TX-26 (2025–present)[77][n 1]
- Lance Gooden, TX-05 (2019–present)[63]
- Wesley Hunt, TX-38 (2023–present) and former candidate for this seat[21][n 1]
- Ronny Jackson, TX-13 (2021–present)[78][n 1]
- Troy Nehls, TX-22 (2021–present)[63]
- Burgess Owens, UT-04 (2021–present)[79][n 1]
State legislators
- 2 state senators[c]
- 17 state representatives[d]
- Matt Rinaldi, former HD-115 (2015–2019) and chair of the Texas Republican Party (2021–2024)[81]
- Anthony Kern, former Arizona's SD-27 (2023–2025)[82]
Individuals
- Dan K. Eberhart, businessman[83]
- Laura Loomer, political activist and conspiracy theorist[74]
- Ted Nugent, guitarist[84]
- John Rich, singer[85][better source needed]
- Randy Quaid, actor[86]
Organizations
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
- Brian Babin, TX-36 (2015–present)[30]
- Keith Self, TX-03 (2023–present)[30]
Statewide officials
- Greg Abbott, governor of Texas (2015–present)[94]
- Dan Patrick, lieutenant governor of Texas (2015–present)[95]
State legislators
- Angela Paxton, former majority leader of the Texas Senate (2023–2025) from the 8th district (2019–present)[96]
Labor unions
First round
Campaign
Paxton led Cornyn in early polling both before and after entering the race, though concerns about his general election viability persist, as polls show him underperforming Cornyn and, in some cases, trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents.[98] This led many Republicans to back Cornyn, as Senate GOP leaders pressed Trump for an endorsement.[99] Cornyn told The Wall Street Journal in June 2025 that he would consider stepping aside if a stronger candidate emerged to defeat Paxton, but he quickly walked back the comment, stating he would remain in the race.[100] Congressman Wesley Hunt entered the race in late 2025, further scrambling the race and increasing the chance of a runoff.[101]
All three candidates competed for the endorsement of Donald Trump, having made support for him and his agenda central to their campaigns; however, Trump declined to back a single candidate, instead stating he supports "all three".[102][103] Cornyn had maintained a substantial fundraising lead over the other candidates throughout the race, spending much of it attacking Paxton.[104] The early three-way polling had been very narrow, usually with Cornyn and Paxton making the runoff and no candidate close to winning outright.[105] While campaigning, all three tapped into Islamophobic sentiment in their advertisements and actions, with Cornyn and Paxton having targeted the EPIC City development in Collin County with investigations and lawsuits.[106][107][108]
Fundraising
Candidates in italics withdrew before the primary election took place.
| Campaign finance reports as of February 11, 2026[A] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Virgil Bierschwale (R) | $9,988 | $9,657 | $331 |
| Sara Canady (R) | $770 | $7,061 | $0 |
| John Cornyn (R) | $11,155,399 | $6,816,042 | $4,972,818 |
| Wesley Hunt (R) | $1,971,633 | $4,116,502 | $342,307 |
| Gulrez Khan (R) | $10,443 | $10,964 | $0 |
| Ken Paxton (R) | $5,857,093 | $1,925,816 | $3,931,277 |
| Tony Schmoker (R) | $2,500 | $3,107 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[109] | |||
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
John Cornyn |
Wesley Hunt |
Ken Paxton |
Other/Undecided [e] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiftyPlusOne[110] | through February 27, 2026 | March 3, 2026 | 29.5% | 21.2% | 35.6% | 13.7% | Paxton +6.1% |
| 270toWin[111] | February 25 – March 2, 2026 | March 3, 2026 | 35.2% | 17.5% | 38.7% | 8.6% | Paxton +3.5% |
| RealClearPolitics[112] | February 13–27, 2026 | March 2, 2026 | 35.4% | 15.8% | 39.2% | 9.6% | Paxton +3.8% |
| Decision Desk HQ[113] | through February 27, 2026 | March 2, 2026 | 35.4% | 16.5% | 38.9% | 9.2% | Paxton +3.5% |
| Race to the WH[114] | through February 27, 2026 | March 2, 2026 | 32.9% | 17.4% | 37.2% | 12.5% | Paxton +5.7% |
| Average | 33.7% | 17.7% | 37.9% | 10.7% | Paxton +4.2% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Wesley Hunt |
Ken Paxton |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[115] | February 26 – March 2, 2026 | 1,659 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 32% | 17% | 36% | 2%[g] | 13% |
| Emerson College[116] | February 26–27, 2026 | 547 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 36% | 17% | 40% | 8%[h] | – |
| Quantus Insights (R)[117] | February 25–26, 2026 | 939 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 16% | 43% | – | 3% |
| Victory Phones (R)[118][B] | February 24–25, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 30% | 15% | 39% | – | 16% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[119] | February 23–24, 2026 | 529 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 30% | 14% | 42% | 1%[i] | 13% |
| Peak Insights (R)[120][C] | February 19–23, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 14% | 36% | 15% | |
| UT Tyler[121] | February 13–22, 2026 | – (LV) | – | 41% | 15% | 35% | – | 9% |
| – (RV) | 39% | 19% | 33% | – | ||||
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[122] | February 2–16, 2026 | 350 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 34% | 26% | 36% | 3%[j] | – |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[123][B] | February 9–12, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 29% | 26% | 36% | – | 9% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[124][D] | February 8–11, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 27% | 15% | 36% | – | 22% |
| Peak Insights (R)[120][C] | February 3–8, 2026 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 29% | 25% | 31% | – | 15% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[125][E] | February 1–3, 2026 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 26% | 18% | 34% | – | 22% |
| J.L. Partners (R)[126] | January 31 – February 3, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 26% | 26% | 27% | – | 21% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[127][C] | January 29 – February 1, 2026 | – (LV) | – | 31% | 24% | 29% | – | 16% |
| University of Houston/YouGov[128] | January 20–31, 2026 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 31% | 17% | 38% | 2%[k] | 12% |
| Emerson College[129] | January 10–12, 2026 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 26% | 16% | 27% | 2%[l] | 29% |
| Harper Polling (R)[130][B] | January 5–7, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 26% | 23% | 31% | – | 20% |
| Deep Root Analytics (R)[127][C] | January 5–11, 2026 | – (LV) | – | 29% | 19% | 26% | – | 26% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[131][F] | December 14–17, 2025 | 809 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 16% | 38% | – | 8% |
| 1892 Polling (R)[127][C] | December 4, 2025 | – (LV) | – | 28% | 19% | 29% | – | 24% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[132][G] | December 1–4, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 27% | 28% | 33% | – | 12% |
| J.L. Partners[133] | December 1–3, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 24% | 24% | 29% | – | 23% |
| co/efficient (R)[134] | December 1–3, 2025 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.07% | 28% | 19% | 27% | – | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[135][H] | December 1–2, 2025 | 527 (LV) | – | 22% | 22% | 32% | – | 24% |
| Peak Insights (R)[136][C] | November 20–25, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 18% | 33% | – | 14% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[137][I] | November 21–22, 2025 | 857 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 25% | 26% | 36% | – | 13% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[138][J] | November 13–16, 2025 | 758 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 32% | 21% | 31% | – | 16% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | November 4–6, 2025 | 811 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 26% | 34% | – | 13% |
| Harper Polling (R)[140][B] | October 28–30, 2025 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 26% | 24% | 25% | – | 25% |
| Hunt Research (R)[42][141] | October 6–10, 2025 | 1,097 (LV) | ± 2.96% | 24% | 19% | 28% | – | 29% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | October 4–6, 2025 | – (V) | – | 31% | 24% | 34% | – | 11% |
| Peak Insights (R)[136][C] | October 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 19% | 36% | – | 11% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 33% | 22% | 34% | – | 11% |
| Deep Root Analytics (R)[143][C] | September 22–28, 2025 | 1,142 (LV) | – | 33% | 21% | 28% | – | 18% |
| UT Tyler[144] | September 17–24, 2025 | 492 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 29% | 14% | 31% | – | 26% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[145][K] | September 20–22, 2025 | 760 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 17% | 31% | – | 20% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[146][I] | September 14–16, 2025 | 842 (V) | – | 28% | 23% | 38% | – | 11% |
| 38% | 23% | 39% | – | |||||
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | August 24–26, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 23% | 38% | – | 11% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | August 4–6, 2025 | – (V) | – | 29% | 23% | 37% | – | 11% |
| Texas Southern University[147] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 30% | 22% | 35% | – | 13% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | July 16–18, 2025 | – (V) | – | 32% | 15% | 38% | 15% | – |
| G1 Research[148] | Late June 2025 | – | – | 28% | 17% | 41% | – | 14% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | June 22–23, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 17% | 41% | – | 14% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[149][150][F] | June 17–22, 2025 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 13% | 49% | – | 7% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | June 8–10, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 12% | 47% | – | 13% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 27% | 15% | 34% | – | 24% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[152][153][L] | May 11–13, 2025 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 16% | 46% | – | |
| American Opportunity Alliance (R)[154][155] | April 29 – May 1, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 27% | 14% | 43% | – | 16% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | April 29–30, 2025 | – (V) | – | 27% | 18% | 40% | – | 15% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[156][J] | April 27 – May 1, 2025 | – | – | 34% | 19% | 44% | – | |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | April 15–17, 2025 | – (V) | – | 26% | 18% | 42% | – | 14% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | March 23–25, 2025 | – (V) | – | 26% | 13% | 46% | – | 15% |
John Cornyn vs. Ronny Jackson vs. Chip Roy
John Cornyn vs. "Someone Else"
Results
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Cornyn (incumbent) | 910,382 | 42.0 | |
| Republican | Ken Paxton | 878,564 | 40.5 | |
| Republican | Wesley Hunt | 293,250 | 13.5 | |
| Republican | Sara Canady | 26,355 | 1.2 | |
| Republican | Anna Bender | 24,167 | 1.1 | |
| Republican | Gulrez Khan | 15,873 | 0.7 | |
| Republican | John Adefope | 9,284 | 0.4 | |
| Republican | Virgil Bierschwale | 9,035 | 0.4 | |
| Total votes | 2,166,910 | 100.0 | ||
Cornyn led Paxton narrowly in the primary election, garnering 41.9% of the vote to Paxton's 40.7%, while Hunt placed a distant third with 13.5% of the vote.[159] Support for Cornyn and Paxton was relatively evenly spread across the state, though Cornyn performed slightly better in urban areas, especially Dallas and Austin, while Paxton performed slightly better in rural areas, particularly in East Texas.[160] Hunt performed slightly better in regions which backed Paxton, suggesting his presence on the ballot hurt Cornyn more than Paxton. Even in Hunt's own congressional district, he came in third with barely over 20% of the vote.[161]
In the days leading up to the March 3 primary, Paxton suggested he could win outright and avoid a runoff. However, Cornyn overperformed expectations in what The Texas Tribune described as a "better-than-expected showing". Rolando Garcia, a member of the State Republican Executive Committee who supported Hunt in the primary but plans to back Paxton in the runoff, said the result should alarm the Paxton campaign.[162] On March 5, The Atlantic reported that Trump advisers expected the president to endorse Cornyn in the runoff election after his unexpectedly strong performance in the first round of voting.[163]
Runoff
Campaign
Despite speculation following his first-place primary finish that Trump would endorse Cornyn, Trump did not endorse either candidate by the March 17 withdrawal deadline. Republicans had hoped the non-endorsed candidate would exit to avoid a costly runoff and allow the nominee to focus on the general election. However, Paxton refused to withdraw unless the Senate eliminated the filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act. Meanwhile, Cornyn, previously a staunch defender of the filibuster, signaled openness to reforming or bypassing it, as Trump indicated his endorsement could hinge on the bill's passage.[164][165]
Political observers have described the runoff campaign between Paxton and Cornyn as "vile" and "brutal," featuring almost exclusively negative advertising from both sides.[166][167] Cornyn has repeatedly attacked Paxton's character, especially regarding alleged infidelity towards his wife, state senator Angela Paxton, who had filed for divorce on "biblical grounds," and compared his ethics to that of a "strip club owner."[168][169] He has also highlighted the political scandals that have plagued Paxton's career, including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House of Representatives, framing him as corrupt and unfit for political office.[170] Paxton has continued to frame Cornyn as insufficiently loyal to Donald Trump.[169][171] His office has also drawn scrutiny over a sharp increase in publicly-announced lawsuits made in his capacity as attorney general since announcing his Senate run and especially in the months immediately before the March primary. A sizeable number of these actions focus on issues salient to conservative voters, including immigration, Islam, DEI, student protests, and elections, drawing accusations that he is using his office to energize his voter base and boost his campaign ahead of the runoff.[172]
The runoff has significantly fractured both the Republican electorate and officeholders in the state, many of whom worry that the money spent and political attacks exchanged during the contest could benefit Democratic nominee James Talarico. Talarico won his primary outright, avoiding a runoff and allowing him to shift his focus to the general election early.[167][173] Lieutenant governor Dan Patrick even warned that a depressed Republican turnout could jeopardize Republican control of the Texas House, though most others dismissed that as extremely unlikely, with many Republicans still expressing confidence both Paxton and Cornyn could win the general election.[174][175][176] Both candidates continued to court Trump's endorsement to consolidate support from the party, but Trump remained neutral in the race over two months after initially signaling his intention to endorse one of them.[177] This jockeying has included policy-related moves as well as superficial ones, such as a bill introduced by Cornyn to designate U.S. Route 287 as Interstate 47 to honor Trump.[178]
On May 19, one week before the runoff, Trump announced his endorsement of Ken Paxton.[179] U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt, who finished third in the first round primary, also endorsed Paxton that day.[21]
On runoff day, Paxton beat Cornyn with 64% of the runoff vote. Cornyn became the first Republican Senator in Texas history to lose renomination, and the second senator in the 2026 election cycle to lose renomination, with the first being Bill Cassidy.
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 6, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| John Cornyn (R) | $13,574,708 | $10,130,088 | $4,078,081 |
| Ken Paxton (R) | $7,600,511 | $5,257,561 | $2,342,950 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[180] | |||
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
John Cornyn |
Ken Paxton |
Undecided [m] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiftyPlusOne[181] | through May 23, 2026 | May 26, 2026 | 40.9% | 50.3% | 8.8% | Paxton +9.4% |
| RealClearPolitics[182] | through May 21, 2026 | May 24, 2026 | 41.0% | 48.8% | 10.2% | Paxton +7.8% |
| 270toWin[183] | through May 25, 2026 | May 26, 2026 | 42.7% | 51.0% | 6.3% | Paxton +8.3% |
| Decision Desk HQ[184] | through May 21, 2026 | May 24, 2026 | 38.5% | 53.5% | 8.0% | Paxton +15.0% |
| Race to the White House[185] | through May 22, 2026 | May 24, 2026 | 38.9% | 52.8% | 8.3% | Paxton +13.9% |
| Average | 40.4% | 51.3% | 8.3% | Paxton +10.9% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Ken Paxton |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R)[186] | May 21–23, 2026 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 53% | – | 4% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[187] | May 20–21, 2026 | 700 (LV) | – | 35% | 57% | – | 8% |
| Trump and Hunt endorse Paxton | |||||||
| Global Strategy Group (D)[188][N] | May 6–11, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 52% | – | 8% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[189][E] | May 3–5, 2026 | 1,810 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 36% | 47% | – | 17% |
| Peak Insights (R)[190][C] | May 2–5, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% | |
| University of Houston[191] | April 28 – May 1, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 48% | – | 7% |
| co/efficient (R)[192] | April 11–14, 2026 | 1,143 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
| Peak Insights (R)[193][C] | April 6–9, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research[194] | April 6–7, 2026 | 1,225 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 48% | – | 11% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[195] | March 21–23, 2026 | 1,218 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 49% | – | 10% |
| GQR (D)[196][H] | March 19–23, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 47% | – | 11% |
| Change Research (D)[197] | March 17–19, 2026 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 42% | – | 19% |
| Impact Research (D)[198][O] | March 12–17, 2026 | – (LV) | – | 37% | 53% | – | 10% |
| Peak Insights (R)[199][C] | March 9–12, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% |
| Slingshot Strategies (D)[200][P] | March 7–8, 2026 | 781 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 49% | – | 10% |
| Harper Polling (R)[201] | March 6–8, 2026 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 43% | – | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[202][Q] | March 5–6, 2026 | 565 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 45% | – | 12% |
| Cornyn and Paxton advance to runoff | |||||||
| Peak Insights (R)[199][C] | February 23–26, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% |
| Peak Insights (R)[199][C] | February 22–25, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | – | 10% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[119] | February 23–24, 2026 | 529 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 36% | 49% | – | 15% |
| Peak Insights (R)[199][C] | February 21–24, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 47% | – | 10% |
| Peak Insights (R)[199][C] | February 19–23, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 49% | – | 9% |
| Peak Insights (R)[199][C] | February 16–19, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 50% | – | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[123][B] | February 9–12, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 50% | – | 12% |
| J.L. Partners (R)[126] | January 31 – February 3, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 41% | – | 19% |
| University of Houston/YouGov[128] | January 20–31, 2026 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | 51% | – | 9% |
| Harper Polling (R)[130][B] | January 5–7, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 44% | – | 23% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[132][G] | December 1–4, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 44% | – | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[135][H] | December 1–2, 2025 | 527 (LV) | – | 34% | 44% | – | 22% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[138][J] | November 13–16, 2025 | 758 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | November 4–6, 2025 | 811 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 38% | 46% | – | 16% |
| Harper Polling (R)[140][B] | October 28–30, 2025 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 39% | – | 25% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | October 4–6, 2025 | – (V) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
| UT Tyler[144] | September 17–24, 2025 | 493 (RV) | – | 39% | 37% | – | 23% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[145][K] | September 20–22, 2025 | – (V) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 39% | – | 22% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | September 14–16, 2025 | – (V) | – | 44% | 44% | – | 12% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research[204] | August 27–29, 2025 | 320 (RV) | – | 32% | 26% | 13%[n] | 29% |
| co/efficient (R)[205] | August 25–27, 2025 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 36% | 39% | – | 25% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | August 24–26, 2025 | – (V) | – | 41% | 48% | – | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[206] | August 21–24, 2025 | 515 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 37% | 42% | – | 21% |
| Emerson College[207] | August 11–12, 2025 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 30% | 29% | 5%[o] | 36% |
| Texas Southern University[147] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 44% | – | 17% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | August 4–6, 2025 | – (V) | – | 42% | 45% | – | 13% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | July 16–18, 2025 | – (V) | – | 36% | 47% | – | 17% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[149][150][F] | June 17–22, 2025 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 57% | – | 5% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | June 8–10, 2025 | – (V) | – | 33% | 49% | – | 18% |
| UT Tyler[208] | May 28 – June 7, 2025 | 538 (RV) | – | 34% | 44% | – | 22% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[209][210][R] | June 6–8, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 49% | – | 18% |
| UpONE Insights (R)[211][212][S] | May 27–28, 2025 | 600 (V) | ± 4.0% | 28% | 50% | – | 21% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 34% | 43% | – | 23% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[152][153][L] | May 11–13, 2025 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 52% | – | 9% |
| American Opportunity Alliance (R)[154][155] | April 29 – May 1, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 35% | 52% | – | 13% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[156][J] | April 27 – May 1, 2025 | – | – | 40% | 56% | – | – |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | April 29–30, 2025 | – (V) | – | 33% | 48% | – | 19% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | April 15–17, 2025 | – (V) | – | 33% | 50% | – | 17% |
| Internal Republican Party poll[213] | Mid–April 2025 | 605 (V) | – | 33% | 50% | – | 17% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[139][I] | March 23–25, 2025 | – (V) | – | 35% | 52% | – | 13% |
| Lake Research Partners (D)/ Slingshot Strategies (D)[214][P] |
March 7–10, 2025 | – (RV) | – | 27% | 38% | 19%[p] | 16% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[215] | January 28 – February 2, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 53% | – | 19% |
| Victory Insights (R)[158] | January 4–6, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 42% | – | 25% |
| CWS Research (R)[216][M] | July 9–10, 2022 | 1,918 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 31% | 51% | – | 18% |
John Cornyn vs. Wesley Hunt
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Wesley Hunt |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling (D)[119] | February 23–24, 2026 | 529 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 42% | 37% | 21% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[123][B] | February 9–12, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 48% | 25% |
| J.L. Partners (R)[126] | January 31 – February 3, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 44% | 23% |
| University of Houston/YouGov[128] | January 20–31, 2026 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[132][G] | December 1–4, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 35% | 50% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[135][H] | December 1–2, 2025 | 527 (LV) | – | 28% | 45% | 27% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 34% | 16% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[146][I] | September 14–16, 2025 | 842 (V) | – | 37% | 46% | 17% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 39% | 31% | 30% |
Ken Paxton vs. Wesley Hunt
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton |
Wesley Hunt |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling (D)[119] | February 23–24, 2026 | 529 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[123][B] | February 9–12, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| J.L. Partners (R)[126] | January 31 – February 3, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
| University of Houston/YouGov[128] | January 20–31, 2026 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 56% | 33% | 11% |
| Harper Polling (R)[130][B] | January 5–7, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 33% | 23% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[132][G] | December 1–4, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 45% | 16% |
| Harper Polling (R)[140][B] | October 28–30, 2025 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 34% | 28% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 25% | 30% |
Results
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 50–60%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ken Paxton | 890,436 | 63.84 | |
| Republican | John Cornyn (incumbent) | 504,325 | 36.16 | |
| Total votes | 1,394,761 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Background
Democrats, who have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, see an opening in the state due to the bitter and divisive primary fight in the Republican side, a potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration, negative approval ratings for President Trump in Texas as well as recent polling numbers showing competitive matchups.[217][218][219][220]
Colin Allred, who unsuccessfully ran against incumbent Republican senator Ted Cruz in 2024, exited the race on December 8, 2025, which precipitated Jasmine Crockett's entry into the race.[221]
Campaign
Crockett entered the race with high name recognition and strong polling numbers, but her launch on the last day to file meant she had limited time for campaigning statewide.[222] According to polling data in February 2026 prior to the primaries, Crockett originally had a favorability percentage of 23%, and an unfavorable percentage of 25% while Talarico came in at 18% favorable and 9% unfavorable.[223][224] She did not hire a campaign manager and focused on advertising over a staffed field operation.[225]
Crockett and Talarico participated in a debate on January 24, 2026, hosted by the AFL-CIO in Georgetown. During the debate, both candidates largely aligned on policy and engaged in limited direct attacks. Crockett defended her "firebrand" style as necessary for the political moment, while Talarico emphasized a more measured approach and his perceived electability against Ken Paxton.[226] Talarico later faced controversy after a social media influencer alleged he had referred to former rival Colin Allred as a "mediocre Black man" in comparison to Crockett in a private conversation; Talarico disputed the claim as a mischaracterization. Allred subsequently endorsed Crockett and criticized Talarico.[227] The episode further exposed the racial tension between each candidate's base of support, with Crockett performing best among Black voters, Democrats' strongest voter base, and Talarico performing best among White and Latino voters, demographics which hold far more swing voters.[228]
On February 16, Talarico was scheduled to appear on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. According to Colbert, however, CBS did not allow him to air the interview nor mention the cancellation on-air based on a recently revised interpretation of the FCC's equal-time rule, although he discussed it anyway during that night's episode in spite of FCC threats. Colbert later posted the interview to the show's YouTube page.[229] The interview gained millions of views online, while Talarico fundraised $2.5 million in the aftermath and increased his name recognition as early voting began ahead of the March 3 primary. Analysts largely viewed the campaign as one based on personality and electability rather than ideology.[230]
After the primary, Crockett conceded to Talarico,[231] but did not endorse him.[232]
Candidates
Nominee
- James Talarico, state representative from the 50th district (2018–present)[233]
Eliminated in primary
- Jasmine Crockett, U.S. representative from Texas's 30th congressional district (2023–present)[234]
- Ahmad R. Hassan, real estate broker, attorney and perennial candidate[16][17]
Withdrawn
- Colin Allred, former U.S. representative from Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–2025) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024 (running for U.S. House, endorsed Crockett)[235][227]
- Emily Morgul, administrative assistant[236][16]
- Michael Swanson, waiter[236][16]
- Terry Virts, retired United States Air Force pilot and NASA astronaut (ran for U.S. House)[237]
- Paula Williams, realtor[238][16]
Declined
- Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative from Texas's 20th congressional district (2013–present) (running for re-election)[239]
- Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative from Texas's 16th congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election)[240]
- Clay Jenkins, Dallas County judge[q] (2011–present)[241]
- Marc Veasey, U.S. representative from Texas's 33rd congressional district (2013–present)[242] (endorsed Allred)[243]
Endorsements
Executive branch officials
- Kamala Harris, former vice president of the United States (2021–2025)[244]
U.S. senators
- Angela Alsobrooks, Maryland (2025–present)[245]
U.S. representatives
- Colin Allred, former TX-32 (2019–2025), 2024 senate nominee[227]
- Ro Khanna, CA-17 (2017–present)[246]
- Adelita Grijalva, AZ-7 (2025–present)[247]
- Christian Menefee, TX-18, (2026–present)[247]
- LaMonica McIver, NJ-10 (2024–present)[248]
- Ayanna Pressley, MA-7 (2019–present)[246]
- Bonnie Watson Coleman, NJ-12 (2015–present)[248]
State legislators
- Rodney Ellis, former SD-13 (1990–2017)[249]
- Barbara Gervin-Hawkins, HD-120 (2017–present) (previously endorsed Allred)[249]
- Christian Manuel, HD-22 (2023–present) (previously endorsed Talarico)[249]
Local officials
- Ras Baraka, mayor of Newark (2014–present)[248]
Individuals
- Cardi B, rapper[250]
- Kelly Rowland, singer-songwriter[250]
- Method Man, rapper[251]
- Kerry Washington, actress[250]
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
U.S. senators
- Martin Heinrich, New Mexico (2013–present)[253]
U.S. representatives
- Julie Johnson, TX-32 (2025–present)[258]
Statewide officials
- 4 members of the Texas State Board of Education[258][259]
State legislators
- Sarah Eckhardt, SD-14 (2021–present)[258]
- Roland Gutierrez,SD-19 (2021–present)[258]
- 28 state representatives[r]
Christian Manuel, HD-22 (2023–present)[259] (switched endorsement to Crockett)[249]
Individuals
- Olivia Julianna, political activist[260]
- Bobby Pulido, Tejano musician and Democratic candidate for TX-15 in 2026[261]
Labor unions
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 278[262]
- Southern Regional Council of Carpenters[263]
Organizations
- Houston LGBTQ+ Political Caucus[46]
- State Tejano Democrats[264]
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee[265]
- Texas A&M College Democrats[266]
- University of Texas at Austin College Democrats[266]
- College Democrats of America[267]
- High School Democrats of America[268]
Newspapers
Executive branch officials
- Ron Kirk, former U.S. trade representative (2009–2013)[274]
U.S. representatives
- Lizzie Fletcher, TX-07 (2019–present)[275]
- Sanford Bishop, GA-02 (1993–present)[243]
- Yvette Clarke, NY-09 (2007–present)[243]
- Steven Horsford, NV-04 (2013–2015, 2019–present)[243]
- Gregory Meeks, NY-05 (1998–present)[243]
- Joe Neguse, CO-02 (2019–present)[243]
- Lauren Underwood, IL-14 (2019–present)[243]
- Marc Veasey, TX-33 (2013–present)[243]
State legislators
- Alma Allen, HD-131 (2005–present)[276]
- Rhetta Bowers, HD-113 (2019–present)[259]
Barbara Gervin-Hawkins, HD-120 (2017–present)[276] (endorsed Crockett after Allred withdrew)[249]- Toni Rose, HD-110 (2013–present)[276](endorsed Talarico in the general election)[277]
- Venton Jones, HD-100 (2023–present)[276]
U.S. representatives
- Beto O'Rourke, former TX-16 (2013–2019) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[278] (endorsed Talarico in the general election)[279]
Labor unions
Debates
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of February 11, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jasmine Crockett (D) | $8,577,757 | $5,092,872 | $3,484,885 |
| James Talarico (D) | $20,694,809 | $15,906,718 | $4,788,090 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[109] | |||
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Jasmine Crockett |
James Talarico |
Other/Undecided [s] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiftyPlusOne[282] | through February 27, 2026 | March 2, 2026 | 45.7% | 46.2% | 8.1% | Talarico +0.5% |
| 270toWin[111] | February 9 – March 1, 2026 | March 2, 2026 | 47.6% | 47.6% | 4.8% | Tied |
| Race to the WH[114] | through February 27, 2026 | March 2, 2026 | 44.4% | 49.1% | 6.5% | Talarico +4.7% |
| VoteHub[283] | through February 27, 2026 | March 2, 2026 | 45.5% | 45.9% | 8.6% | Talarico +0.4% |
| Decision Desk HQ[284] | through February 27, 2026 | March 2, 2026 | 45.6% | 48.5% | 8.6% | Talarico +2.9% |
| Average | 45.76% | 47.46% | 7.4% | Talarico +1.14% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Colin Allred |
Jasmine Crockett |
James Talarico |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[115] | February 26 – March 2, 2026 | 2,408 (LV) | ± 2.7% | – | 40% | 53% | 0%[t] | 7% |
| Emerson College[116] | February 26–27, 2026 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | – | 47% | 52% | 1%[u] | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[285][T] | February 25, 2026 | 599 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 42% | 48% | 0%[v] | 10% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[119] | February 23–24, 2026 | 472 (LV) | ± 4.5% | – | 40% | 52% | 2%[w] | 6% |
| UT Tyler[121] | February 13–22, 2026 | 488 (LV) | – | – | 55% | 37% | 4%[x] | 4% |
| 548 (RV) | – | 56% | 34% | 7%[y] | 3% | |||
| Talarico is interviewed by Stephen Colbert | ||||||||
| University of Texas/ Texas Politics Project[122] |
February 2–16, 2026 | 369 (RV) | ± 5.1% | – | 56% | 44% | – | |
| Impact Research (D)[286][O] | February 10–12, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | – | 43% | 47% | 10% | |
| University of Houston/YouGov[128] | January 20–31, 2026 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | – | 47% | 39% | 2%[z] | 12% |
| Slingshot Strategies (D)[287][P] | January 14–21, 2026 | 1,290 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | 38% | 37% | 4%[aa] | 21% |
| HIT Strategies (D)[288][U] | January 6–15, 2026 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.2% | – | 46% | 33% | – | 21% |
| Emerson College[129] | January 10–12, 2026 | 413 (LV) | ± 4.8% | – | 38% | 47% | <1%[ab] | 15% |
| Texas Southern University[289] | December 9–11, 2025 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | – | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
| Allred withdraws from the race | ||||||||
| Impact Research (D)[286][O] | December 3–4, 2025 | – (LV) | – | – | 52% | 35% | 13% | |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 478 (RV) | ± 4.5% | – | 52% | 34% | – | 14% |
| 46% | – | 42% | – | 8% | ||||
| Impact Research (D)[290][O] | October 23–29, 2025 | 836 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | – | 48% | – | 9% |
| UT Tyler[144] | September 17–24, 2025 | 377 (RV) | – | 42% | – | 30% | 4%[ac] | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[291] | September 3–4, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | – | 32% | – | 27% |
| Emerson College[207] | August 11–12, 2025 | 370 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 58% | – | – | 8%[ad] | 34% |
| Texas Southern University[147] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 50% | – | 43% | – | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Colin Allred |
James Talarico |
Joaquin Castro |
Jasmine Crockett |
Beto O'Rourke |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 478 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 13% | 25% | – | 31% | 25% | – | 6% |
| 34% | – | – | 57% | – | – | 9% | ||||
| 38% | – | – | – | 55% | – | 7% | ||||
| – | – | – | 51% | 41% | – | 8% | ||||
| 39% | – | – | 54% | – | 7% | |||||
| UT Tyler[144] | September 17–24, 2025 | 377 (RV) | – | 25% | – | 13% | 29% | 31% | 2%[ae] | – |
| Texas Public Opinion Research[204] | August 27–29, 2025 | 270 (RV) | – | 13% | 7% | 4% | 26% | 27% | 5%[af] | 18% |
| Texas Southern University[147] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 38% | – | – | – | 58% | – | 4% |
| 52% | – | – | 41% | – | – | 7% | ||||
| NRSC (R)[292] | July 4–7, 2025 | 566 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 20% | – | 13% | 35% | 13% | – | 18% |
Results
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 40–50%
- 50%
- 50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | James Talarico | 1,216,412 | 52.4 | |
| Democratic | Jasmine Crockett | 1,071,900 | 46.2 | |
| Democratic | Ahmad Hassan | 30,875 | 1.3 | |
| Total votes | 2,319,187 | 100.0 | ||
James Talarico won the Democratic primary with 52.4% of the vote.[293] After a dispute concerning voting hours in Dallas and Williamson Counties on the night of the primary, Crockett conceded the race on March 4.[294] The dispute in Dallas County arose from the county Republican Party's decision not to use countywide voting centers, where voters can cast ballots at any location, on Election Day, as Texas law requires both parties to agree in order to implement them.[295] On March 17, the Dallas County GOP announced it would use countywide voting centers for the runoff.[296]
Issues with a ballot scanning and tabulation machine in Newton County led to the county clerk writing in a court filing that its Democratic statewide primary results, with Hassan winning the county, were "skewed" and that a recount was required, which eventually had to be done by hand due to the scanning issues persisting,[297][298] with the revised results showing Crockett winning the county.
Democrats cast more primary votes in a midterm election than Republicans for the first time since 2002.[161] The results largely mirrored those of the 2020 primary for this seat, which also pitted a Black Democrat from Dallas (Royce West) against a White Democrat from the Austin area (M. J. Hegar). Crockett performed best among Black voters, winning by large margins in East Texas, as well as by smaller margins in the urban centers of Dallas and Harris counties. Talarico won the White and Hispanic vote, dominating in the Austin metro area, and winning the state's remaining rural areas, including the heavily-Hispanic Rio Grande Valley.[160]
Third-party and independent candidates
Libertarian Party
The Libertarian Party convention was held from April 10 to 12, 2026, in Abilene.[299] Ted Brown, the party's U.S. senate nominee in 2024, secured the nomination with 83 votes to Daniel "Mark" Sims's 39.[300]
Candidates
Nominee
- Ted Brown[300]
Eliminated at convention
- Daniel Sims[300]
Green Party
Candidates
Withdrawn
Independents
Candidates
Declared
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[305] | Likely R | April 23, 2026 |
| Race to the WH[306] | Tossup | May 22, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[307] | Tossup | May 19, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[308] | Lean R | May 26, 2026 |
| The Cook Political Report[309] | Lean R | May 26, 2026 |
| The Economist[310][ag] | Tossup | May 22, 2026 |
Post-primary endorsements
U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, Senate majority whip from Wyoming (2007–present)[311]
- John Cornyn, Texas (2002–present)[312]
- Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)[313]
- Ted Cruz, Texas (2013–present)[314]
- Bernie Moreno, Ohio (2025–present)[311]
- Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)[313]
- Tim Sheehy, Montana (2025–present)[311]
- John Thune, Senate majority leader from South Dakota (2005–present)[313]
State legislators
- Jeff Leach, HD-67 (2013–present)[314]
Newspapers and media
Executive branch officials
- Kamala Harris, former vice president of the United States (2021–2025)[316]
- Barack Obama, former president of the United States (2009–2017)[317]
U.S. senators
- Chris Coons, Delaware (2010–present)[318]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, New York (2009–present)[318]
- Adam Schiff, California (2024–present)[318]
- Chuck Schumer, Senate minority leader (2017–2021, 2025–present) from New York (1999–present)[318]
U.S. representatives
- Colin Allred, former TX-32 (2019–2025), 2024 U.S. senate nominee and former candidate for this seat[319]
- Jake Auchincloss, MA-04 (2021–present)[320]
- Greg Casar, TX-35 (2023–present)[321]
- Beto O'Rourke, former TX-16 (2013–2019), 2018 U.S. senate nominee and 2022 gubernatorial nominee[279]
State legislators
- Royce West, SD-23 (1993–present) and candidate for this seat in 2020[319]
- Toni Rose, HD-110 (2013–present)[277]
Individuals
- Matthew DeSarno, former FBI special agent[322]
Labor unions
- American Federation of Teachers Texas[323]
- Texas AFL-CIO[280]
Organizations
- Giffords[324]
- Feminist Majority PAC[325]
- League of Conservation Voters[326]
- Our Revolution[327]
- People for the American Way[328]
Newspapers and media
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ken Paxton (R)[ah] | $7,600,511 | $5,257,561 | $2,342,950 |
| James Talarico (D)[ai] | $40,284,109 | $30,425,244 | $9,858,865 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[180] | |||
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Ken Paxton (R) | James Talarico (D) | Other/ Undecided[aj] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[185] | through May 23, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | 40.9% | 43.9% | 15.2% | Talarico +3.0% |
| 270toWin[331] | April 10 – May 6, 2026 | May 19, 2026 | 40.0% | 44.3% | 15.7% | Talarico +4.3% |
| RealClearPolitics[332] | January 10 – May 6, 2026 | May 19, 2026 | 42.8% | 44.3% | 12.9% | Talarico +1.5% |
| Average | 41.2% | 44.2% | 14.6% | Talarico +3.0% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
James Talarico (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Public Opinion Research[333] | May 27–28, 2026 | 1,670 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 47% | 3%[ak] | 7% |
| Republican primary runoff | |||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[334][V] | May 22–23, 2026 | 643 (RV) | — | 38% | 45% | 3%[al] | 14% |
| Texas Southern University[336] | April 22 – May 6, 2026 | 1,223 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 45% | 2%[am] | 8% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research[337] | April 17–20, 2026 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 41% | 46% | — | 9% |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[338] | April 10–20, 2026 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8%[an] | 34% | 42% | 5%[o] | 19%[ao] |
| Impact Research (D)[198][O] | March 12–17, 2026 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 44% | 5%[ap] | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[339][H] | March 4–5, 2026 | 576 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 47% | — | 8% |
| Primary elections | |||||||
| University of Houston/YouGov[128] | January 20–31, 2026 | 1,502 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 44% | 3%[al] | 7% |
| Emerson College[129] | January 10–12, 2026 | 1,165 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 46% | — | 9% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[340] | November 12–17, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 44% | — | 12% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 46% | — | 5% |
| UT Tyler[144] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 37% | 8%[aq] | 17% |
John Cornyn vs. James Talarico
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
James Talarico (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary runoff | |||||||
| Texas Southern University[336] | April 22 – May 6, 2026 | 1,223 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 44% | 3%[al] | 8% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research[337] | April 17–20, 2026 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 41% | 44% | — | 11% |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[338] | April 10–20, 2026 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8%[an] | 33% | 40% | 7%[ar] | 19%[ao] |
| Impact Research (D)[198][O] | March 12–17, 2026 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 41% | 43% | 7%[as] | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[339][H] | March 4–5, 2026 | 576 (V) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 44% | — | 13% |
| Primary elections | |||||||
| University of Houston/YouGov[128] | January 20–31, 2026 | 1,502 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 44% | 43% | 5%[ap] | 8% |
| Emerson College[129] | January 10–12, 2026 | 1,165 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 44% | — | 9% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[340] | November 12–17, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 40% | — | 14% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
| UT Tyler[144] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 35% | 7%[ar] | 17% |
John Cornyn vs. Jasmine Crockett
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Jasmine Crockett (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/YouGov[128] | January 20–31, 2026 | 1,502 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 43% | 5%[ap] | 7% |
| Emerson College[129] | January 10–12, 2026 | 1,165 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 43% | — | 9% |
| Change Research (D)[341] | November 21–26, 2025 | 1,189 (V) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 41% | — | 10% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 44% | — | 6% |
Ken Paxton vs. Jasmine Crockett
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Jasmine Crockett (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research (D)[342][343][W] | February 6–12, 2026 | 803 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 49% | — | 6% |
| University of Houston/YouGov[128] | January 20–31, 2026 | 1,502 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 43% | 4%[at] | 8% |
| Emerson College[129] | January 10–12, 2026 | 1,165 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 46% | — | 9% |
| Change Research (D)[341] | November 21–26, 2025 | 1,189 (V) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 42% | — | 8% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 47% | — | 2% |
John Cornyn vs. Colin Allred
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Colin Allred (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[340] | November 12–17, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | — | 13% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 46% | — | 6% |
| UT Tyler[144] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 37% | 7%[ar] | 13% |
| Emerson College[207] | August 11–12, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 38% | — | 17% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 44% | — | 8% |
Ken Paxton vs. Colin Allred
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Colin Allred (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[340] | November 12–17, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 44% | — | 12% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 47% | — | 5% |
| UT Tyler[144] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 41% | 8%[aq] | 13% |
| GBAO (D)[344][X] | August 13–18, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 49% | — | 4% |
| 49% | 50%[au] | — | — | ||||
| Emerson College[207] | August 11–12, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 41% | — | 13% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 46% | — | 6% |
| Brad Parscale (R)[213] | Mid–April 2025 | >1,000 (LV) | — | 37% | 52% | — | 11% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Colin Allred
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
Colin Allred (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 45% | — | 5% |
| UT Tyler[144] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 37% | 6%[av] | 19% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 44% | — | 9% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Jasmine Crockett
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
Jasmine Crockett (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/YouGov[128] | January 20–31, 2026 | 1,502 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 43% | 3%[al] | 8% |
| Emerson College[129] | January 10–12, 2026 | 1,165 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 43% | — | 9% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 45% | — | 5% |
Wesley Hunt vs. James Talarico
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
James Talarico (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/YouGov[128] | January 20–31, 2026 | 1,502 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 42% | 3%[al] | 9% |
| Emerson College[129] | January 10–12, 2026 | 1,165 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 44% | — | 9% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 44% | — | 6% |
| UT Tyler[144] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 37% | 6%[av] | 21% |
John Cornyn vs. Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
Ken Paxton vs. Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[142] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
John Cornyn vs. Joaquin Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Joaquin Castro (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Ken Paxton vs. Joaquin Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Joaquin Castro (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Joaquin Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
Joaquin Castro (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[151] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
John Cornyn vs. Generic Democrat
Ken Paxton vs. Generic Democrat
Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat
Notes
- Jeffrey Barry, HD-29 (2025–present)[43][n 1]
- Brad Buckley, HD-54 (2019–present)[43][n 1]
- Giovanni Capriglione, HD-98 (2013–present)[44]
- Angie Chen Button, HD-112 (2009–present)[43][n 1]
- Pat Curry, HD-56 (2024–present)[45][n 1]
- Drew Darby, HD-72 (2007–present)[46]
- Mano DeAyala, HD-133 (2023–present)[43][n 1]
- Charlie Geren, HD-99 (2001–present)[44]
- Sam Harless, HD-126 (2019–present)[43][n 1]
- Cody Harris, HD-08 (2019–present)[43][n 1]
- Ken King, HD-88 (2013–present)[43][n 1]
- Brooks Landgraf, former HD-81 (2015–present)[26]
- Janie Lopez, HD-37 (2023–present)[45][n 1]
- Jeff Leach, HD-67 (2013–present)[43][n 1]
- Morgan Meyer, HD-108 (2015–present)[45][n 1]
- Candy Noble, HD-89 (2019–present)[45][n 1]
- Dade Phelan, former speaker of the House (2021–2025) from HD-21 (2015–present)[39]
- Matt Shaheen, HD-89 (2015–present)[45][n 1]
- Carl Tepper, HD-84 (2023–present)[46]
- Gary VanDeaver, HD-01 (2015–present)[45][n 1]
- Denise Villalobos, HD-34 (2025–present)[45][n 1]
- Terry Wilson, HD-20 (2017–present)[25]
- Rodney Anderson, former HD-105 (2015–2019) and HD-106 (2011–2013)[44]
- Myra Crownover, former HD-64 (2000–2017)[25]
- John Cyrier, former HD-17 (2015–2023)[25]
- Larry Gonzales, former HD-52 (2011–2018)[25]
- Stephanie Klick, former House majority leader (2019–2021) from HD-91 (2013–2025)[39]
- Dee Margo, former HD-78 (2011–2013) and mayor of El Paso (2017–2021)[47]
- Four Price, former HD-87 (2011–2025)[46]
- John N. Raney, former HD-14 (2011–2025)[25]
- Mark Dorazio, HD-122 (2023–present)[80]
- Richard Hayes, HD-57 (2023–present)[80]
- Janis Holt, HD-18 (2025–present)[80]
- Andy Hopper, HD-64 (2025–present)[39]
- Helen Kerwin, HD-58 (2025–present)[80]
- Marc LaHood, HD-121 (2025–present)[80]
- Mitch Little, HD-65 (2025–present)[39]
- David Lowe, HD-91 (2025–present)[39]
- Shelley Luther, HD-62 (2025–present)[39]
- Brent Money, HD-02 (2025–present)[39]
- Mike Olcott, HD-60 (2025–present)[39]
- Katrina Pierson, HD-33 (2025–present)[39]
- Keresa Richardson, HD-61 (2025–present)[39]
- Nate Schatzline, HD-93 (2023–present)[39]
- Joanne Shofner, HD-11 (2025–present)[80]
- Tony Tinderholt, HD-94 (2015–present)[80]
- Steve Toth, HD-15 (2013–2015, 2019–present)[39]
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Someone else" and "I [did/will] not vote in this primary" with 1%; John Adefope, Anna Bender, Virgil Bierschwale, and Sara Canady with 0%
- Anna Bender with 3%; Sara Canady and Gulrez Khan 2%; John Adefope with 1%; Virgil Bierschwale with 0%
- "Do not remember" with 1%; John Adefope, Anna Bender, Virgil Bierschwale, Sara Canady, Gulrez Khan, and "Did not vote in this race" with 0%
- Bierschwale with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
- Sara Canady with 1%; "4 others" with <1%
- John Adefope with 1%; Anna Bender, Virgil Bierschwale, Sara Canady, and Gulrez Khan with a combined 1%
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Would not vote in that race" with 9%; "Prefer not to answer" with 4%
- "Someone else" with 5%
- Would not Vote with 8%; Other with 7%; Refused with 4%
- Diego Bernal, HD-123 (2015–present)[258]
- John Bryant, HD-114 (2023–present) and former TX-05 (1983–1997)[258]
- John Bucy III, HD-136 (2019–present)[258]
- Elizabeth Campos, HD-119 (2021–present)[258]
- Terry Canales, HD-40 (2013–present)[259]
- Sheryl Cole, HD-46 (2019–present)[259]
- Philip Cortez, HD-117 (2017–present)[258]
- Aicha Davis, HD-109 (2025–present)[258]
- Lulu Flores, HD-51 (2023–present)[258]
- Erin Gamez, HD-38 (2022–present)[258]
- Josey Garcia, HD-124 (2023–present)[258]
- Linda Garcia, HD-107 (2025–present)[258]
- Cassandra Hernandez, HD-115 (2025–present)[258]
- Donna Howard, HD-48 (2006–present)[258]
- Ann Johnson, HD-134 (2021–present)[258]
- Mando Martinez, HD-39 (2005–present)[258]
- Terry Meza, HD-105 (2019–present)[258]
- Christina Morales, HD-145 (2019–present)[258]
- Eddie Morales, HD-74 (2021–present)[258]
- Penny Morales Shaw, HD-148 (2021–present)[258]
- Ray Lopez, HD-125 (2019–present)[258]
- Claudia Ordaz, HD-79 (2023–present)[258]
- Mary Ann Perez, HD-144 (2017–present)[258]
- Vincent Perez, HD-77 (2025–present)[258]
- Ramon Romero Jr., HD-90 (2015–present)[258]
- Lauren Ashley Simmons, HD-146 (2025–present)[259]
- Armando Walle, HD-140 (2009–present)[258]
- Erin Zwiener, HD-45 (2019–present)[258]
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Hassan, "I [did/will] not vote in this primary", and "Someone else" with 0%
- Hassan with 1%
- Hassan with 0%
- "Did not vote in this race" and "Do not remember" with 1%; Hassan with 0%
- Hassan with 4%
- Hassan with 7%
- Hassan with 2%
- "Would not vote in that race" with 4%
- Hassan at <1%
- "Someone else" with 4%
- Morgul with 4%; Swanson with 3%; Virts with 1%
- "Refused" with 2%
- "Would not vote in that race" with 5%
- The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
- As of May 6, 2026
- As of March 31, 2026
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Would not vote in that race" with 2%
Ted Brown (L) with 1% - Ted Brown (L) with 3%
- Ted Brown (L) with 2%
- ±3.4% adjusted for weighting
- "Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion"
- Ted Brown (L) with 5%
- "Someone else" with 8%
- "Someone else" with 7%
- Ted Brown (L) with 7%
- Ted Brown (L) with 4%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Someone else" with 6%
- "Someone else" with 9%
Partisan clients
- Some candidates may have not published fundraising totals as of the filing deadline.
- Poll sponsored by Hunt's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC, which supports Cornyn
- Poll sponsored by Paxton's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Lone Star Liberty PAC, which supports Paxton
- Poll commissioned by a Paxton-allied super PAC.
- Poll sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate
- Poll commissioned by a pro-Hunt group
- Poll sponsored by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Cornyn
- Poll commissioned by One Nation, which supports Cornyn
- Poll sponsored by Trending Politics, a conservative news website
- Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC
- Poll sponsored by Talarico's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Texas Public Opinion Research
- Poll commissioned by the Texas Justice Fund
- Poll commissioned by the Conservative Policy Project
- Poll sponsored by the Educational Freedom Institute
- Poll sponsored by Lone Star Rising PAC, which supports Talarico
- Poll sponsored by Crockett's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Forward Texas super PAC, which supports Crockett
- Poll sponsored by Allred's campaign