2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
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The 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Mexico, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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November 3, 2020
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   Luján: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Ronchetti: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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On March 25, 2019, incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Udall announced that he would retire.[1][2][3] Udall was the only Democratic senator who did not run for reelection in 2020. Democratic U.S. Representative Ben Ray Luján defeated Mark Ronchetti by a 6.1% margin. Luján underperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 4.6%, who won the concurrent presidential election in the state against President Donald Trump by 10.8%. Ben Ray Luján was the first Hispanic to have won a Senate seat in New Mexico since Joseph Montoya in 1970.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ben Ray Luján, U.S. representative for New Mexico's 3rd congressional district[4]
Withdrew
- Giovanni Haqani, businessman, television host, and candidate for state representative in 2016[5]
- Andrew Perkins, accountant and former Española finance director[6]
- Maggie Toulouse Oliver, secretary of state of New Mexico[7] (endorsed Ben Ray Luján)
Declined
- Jeff Apodaca, businessman and candidate for governor in 2018[8]
- Hector Balderas, Attorney General of New Mexico[4][9]
- Terry Brunner, former United States Department of Agriculture regional director[10]
- Pete Campos, state senator[10]
- Jacob Candelaria, state senator[10]
- Joe Cervantes, state senator and candidate for governor in 2018[10]
- Brian Egolf, speaker of the New Mexico House of Representatives[10]
- Deb Haaland, U.S. representative[11] (endorsed Ben Ray Luján); (running for re-election)[12][13]
- Tim Keller, mayor of Albuquerque[14]
- Michelle Lujan Grisham, Governor of New Mexico[15] (endorsed Ben Ray Luján)[16]
- Howie Morales, Lieutenant Governor of New Mexico[10]
- Valerie Plame, former CIA operations officer[17]
- Jeff Steinborn, state senator[10]
- Xochitl Torres Small, U.S. representative[18]
- Raúl Torrez, Bernalillo County district attorney[19] (running for re-election)
- Tom Udall, incumbent U.S. senator[2][20][21] (endorsed Ben Ray Luján)[22]
- Alan Webber, mayor of Santa Fe[23]
Endorsements
Ben Ray Luján
Federal officials
- Deb Haaland, U.S. representative (NM)[12]
- Martin Heinrich, U.S. senator (NM)[22]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator (MN)[24]
- Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (CA-12)[12][25]
- Tom Udall, U.S. senator (NM)[22]
State and local politicians
- Diane Denish, former lieutenant governor of New Mexico[26]
- Michelle Lujan Grisham, Governor of New Mexico[15][16]
- Patricia Madrid, former attorney general of New Mexico[26]
- Maggie Toulouse Oliver, Secretary of State of New Mexico[7]
Labor unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees[27]
- New Mexico Professional Fire Fighters Association[28]
Organizations
- Animal Protection Voters[29]
- Brady Campaign[30]
- Council for a Livable World[31]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[32]
- DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare[33]
- End Citizens United[34]
- Giffords[35]
- Human Rights Campaign[36]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund[37]
- J Street PAC[38]
- League of Conservation Voters[39]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[40]
- National Organization for Women[41]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[42]
- Sierra Club[43]
Polling
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ben Ray Luján | 225,082 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 225,082 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Gavin Clarkson, former professor at New Mexico State University and nominee for New Mexico Secretary of State in 2018[48]
- Elisa Martinez, member of the Navajo Nation and executive director of the New Mexico Alliance for Life[49]
Withdrawn
Declined
- Rod Adair, former state senator[55]
- Richard J. Berry, former mayor of Albuquerque[2]
- Kevin DuPriest, businessman, data scientist[2]
- Kelly Fajardo, state representative[15]
- Nate Gentry, minority leader of the New Mexico House of Representatives[10]
- Michael Hendricks, attorney and nominee for Attorney General in 2018[15]
- Yvette Herrell, former state representative and nominee for New Mexico's 2nd congressional district in 2018 (Herrell is running for U.S. House of Representatives CD2)[56]
- David Hyder, Valencia County Commissioner[citation needed]
- Steve Maestas, real estate developer[10]
- Sarah Maestas Barnes, former state representative[10]
- Susana Martinez, former governor of New Mexico[2]
- Mark Moores, state senator[57]
- Judith Nakamura, New Mexico Supreme Court justice[55]
- Steve Pearce, chair of the New Mexico Republican Party, former U.S. representative, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008, and nominee for governor in 2018[58]
- John Sanchez, former lieutenant governor of New Mexico[59]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Clarkson |
Elisa Martinez |
Mark Ronchetti |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[60][B] | March 18–22, 2020 | 400 (V) | ± 4.9% | 11% | 11% | 45% | – |
Results
Ronchetti
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Martinez
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mark Ronchetti | 89,216 | 56.49% | |
| Republican | Elisa Martinez | 41,240 | 26.11% | |
| Republican | Gavin Clarkson | 27,471 | 17.39% | |
| Total votes | 157,927 | 100.00% | ||
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Bob Walsh, nuclear safety scientist[61]
Declined
- Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[15]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Bob Walsh | 1,454 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 1,454 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Debate
| Host | Date & time | Link(s) | Participants | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Ray Luján (D) | Mark Ronchetti (R) | Bob Walsh (L) | |||
| KOB4 and the Santa Fe New Mexican | October 5, 2020 | [62] | Present | Present | Present |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[63] | Safe D | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[64] | Safe D | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[66] | Safe D | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[67] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[68] | Lean D | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[69] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[70] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[71] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
Post-primary endorsements
Ben Ray Luján (D)
U.S. presidents
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)[72]
Federal officials
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator (CA); Democratic nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2020[73]
Labor unions
Organizations
- American Nurses Association[77]
- Center for Biological Diversity[78]
- Congressional Black Caucus[79]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[80]
- Indivisible[81]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[82]
- Latino Victory Project[83]
- National Association of Social Workers[84]
- National Education Association[85]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[86]
- Population Connection[87]
- Progressive Turnout Project[88]
Mark Ronchetti (R)
Federal officials
- Rick Scott, U.S. senator (R-FL) and 45th governor of Florida (2011–2019)[89]
Individuals
- Gavin Clarkson, former professor at New Mexico State University and nominee for New Mexico Secretary of State in 2018; former candidate[90]
- Elisa Martinez, member of the Navajo Nation and executive director of the New Mexico Alliance for Life; former candidate[90]
Publications
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ben Ray Luján (D) |
Mark Ronchetti (R) |
Bob Walsh (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc.[92] | October 23–29, 2020 | 1,180 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 44% | 3% | 1% |
| GBAO Strategies (D)[93][A] | October 14–17, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52%[b] | 41% | 5% | – |
| 54%[c] | 43% | – | – | ||||
| Public Policy Polling[94] | September 30 – October 1, 2020 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 41% | 3% | 6% |
| Research & Polling Inc.[95] | August 26 – September 2, 2020 | 1,123 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 40% | 4% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[96] | June 12–13, 2020 | 740 (V) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 34% | – | 18% |
Hypothetical polling
Ben Ray Luján vs. Gavin Clarkson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ben Ray Luján (D) |
Gavin Clarkson (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[97] | January 3–6, 2020 | 967 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 54% | 35% | 12% |
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ben Ray Luján | 474,483 | 51.73% | –3.83% | |
| Republican | Mark Ronchetti | 418,483 | 45.62% | +1.18% | |
| Libertarian | Bob Walsh | 24,271 | 2.65% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 917,237 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
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By congressional district
Ray Luján won two of three congressional districts.[99]
| District | Ray Luján | Ronchetti | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 56% | 41% | Deb Haaland |
| 2nd | 42% | 55% | Xochitl Torres Small |
| Yvette Herrell | |||
| 3rd | 56% | 42% | Ben Ray Luján |
| Teresa Leger Fernandez |