2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State

Bayelsa State is a small state in the South South mainly populated by Ijaw peoples; although its oil reserves make it one of the most resource-rich states in the nation, Bayelsa has faced challenges in security and environmental degradation in large part due to years of systemic corruption and illegal oil bunkering.

Politically, the state's early 2019 elections were categorized as the continuation of the PDP's dominance albeit with the APC making considerable gains by gaining one senate and two House of Representatives seats. The APC also gained ground in the assembly election and Bayelsa also was the state that swung the most towards Buhari in the presidential election, although that could be chalked up to former Governor Goodluck Jonathan no longer being PDP nominee. Later in 2019, the swing towards the APC dramatically increased as its gubernatorial nominee David Lyon won by a large margin but Diri was declared victor after Lyon was disqualified before the inauguration.

Polling organisation/client	Fieldwork date	Sample size					Others	Undecided	Undisclosed	Not voting
			Tinubu APC	Obi LP	Kwankwaso NNPP	Abubakar PDP
BantuPage	January 2023	N/A	9%	27%	2%	13%	–	13%	20%	16%
Nextier (Bayelsa crosstabs of national poll)	27 January 2023	N/A	11.4%	62.9%	–	20.0%	–	5.7%	–	–
SBM Intelligence for EiE (Bayelsa crosstabs of national poll)	22 January-6 February 2023	N/A	9%	41%	–	47%	–	2%	–	–

Source	Projection		As of
Africa Elects[b][2]	Lean Obi		24 February 2023
Dataphyte[c][3]
	Tinubu:	20.87%	11 February 2023
	Obi:	45.03%
	Abubakar:	28.05%
	Others:	6.05%
Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[d][4]	Abubakar		17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence[e][5]	Abubakar		15 December 2022
ThisDay[f][6]
	Tinubu:	20%	27 December 2022
	Obi:	30%
	Kwankwaso:	–
	Abubakar:	40%
	Others/Undecided:	10%
The Nation[g][7][8]	Abubakar		12-19 February 2023

Summarize Top Qs Fact Check

Candidate		Running mate	Party	Votes	%
	Atiku Abubakar	Ifeanyi Okowa	PDP	68,818	41.63
	Peter Obi	Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed	LP	49,975	30.23
	Bola Tinubu	Kashim Shettima	APC	42,572	25.75
	Rabiu Kwankwaso	Isaac Idahosa	NNPP	540	0.33
	Other candidates	–	Others	3,420	2.07
Total				165,325	100.00
Valid votes				165,325	95.50
Invalid/blank votes				7,786	4.50
Total votes				177,368	–
Registered voters/turnout				1,056,862	16.78
Source: [9][10]

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial district	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Bayelsa Central Senatorial District[h]	18,438	21.72%	34,560	40.70%	30,056	35.40%	413	0.49%	1,439	1.69%	84,906
Bayelsa East Senatorial District[i]	15,133	35.79%	14,905	35.26%	10,801	25.55%	87	0.21%	1,351	3.20%	42,277
Bayelsa West Senatorial District[j]	9,001	23.60%	19,353	50.74%	9,118	23.91%	40	0.10%	630	1.65%	38,142
Totals	42,572	25.75%	68,818	41.62%	49,975	30.23%	540	0.33%	3,420	2.07%	165,325

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal constituency	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Brass/Nembe Federal Constituency[k]	6,689	33.68%	8,543	43.02%	4,080	20.54%	40	0.20%	508	2.56%	19,860
Ogbia Federal Constituency[l]	8,444	37.67%	6,362	28.38%	6,721	29.98%	47	0.21%	843	3.76%	22,417
Sagbama/Ekeremor Federal Constituency[m]	9,001	23.60%	19,353	50.74%	9,118	23.91%	40	0.10%	630	1.65%	38,142
Southern Ijaw Federal Constituency[n]	7,650	32.22%	11,280	47.51%	4,400	18.53%	190	0.80%	224	0.94%	23,744
Yenagoa/Kolokuna/Opokuma Federal Constituency[o]	10,788	17.64%	23,280	38.06%	25,656	41.95%	223	0.36%	1,215	1.99%	61,162
Totals	42,572	25.75%	68,818	41.62%	49,975	30.23%	540	0.33%	3,420	2.07%	165,325

The results of the election by local government area.

Local government area	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes	Turnout (%)
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Brass[11]	3,684	29.70%	6,209	50.06%	2,273	18.32%	25	0.20%	213	1.72%	12,404	13.86%
Ekeremor[12]	4,398	24.00%	9,113	49.73%	4,489	24.49%	16	0.09%	310	1.69%	18,326	13.71%
Kolokuma/Opokuma[13]	4,137	24.63%	8,972	53.42%	3,395	20.21%	34	0.20%	259	1.54%	16,797	26.65%
Nembe[14]	3,005	40.30%	2,334	31.30%	1,807	24.24%	15	0.20%	295	3.96%	7,456	7.81%
Ogbia[15]	8,444	37.67%	6,362	28.38%	6,721	29.98%	47	0.21%	843	3.76%	22,417	20.89%
Sagbama[16]	4,603	23.23%	10,240	51.68%	4,629	23.36%	24	0.12%	320	1.61%	19,816	17.13%
Southern Ijaw[17]	7,650	32.22%	11,280	47.51%	4,400	18.53%	190	0.80%	224	0.94%	23,744	13.50%
Yenagoa[18]	6,651	14.99%	14,308	32.25%	22,261	50.18%	189	0.43%	956	2.15%	44,365	21.41%
Totals	42,572	25.75%	68,818	41.62%	49,975	30.23%	540	0.33%	3,420	2.07%	165,325	16.38%