2023 Portuguese Socialist Party leadership election

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2023 Socialist Party leadership election
Socialist Party
 2014
15–16 December 2023
2025 
Turnout68.7%
 
Candidate Pedro Nuno Santos José Luís Carneiro
Popular vote 24,219 14,891
Percentage 60.8% 37.4%

Results by Party Federation.
     Santos      Carneiro

Secretary-General before election

António Costa

Elected Secretary-General

Pedro Nuno Santos

The 2023 Portuguese Socialist Party leadership election was held on 15 and 16 December 2023.[1] The leadership ballot was called after Prime Minister and Socialist Party Secretary-General António Costa resigned from office on 7 November 2023.[2] The winner of this election led the Socialist Party into the 2024 legislative election.

The declared candidates included the former Infrastructure and Housing Minister Pedro Nuno Santos, who represented the leftist faction of the party and wants to build upon the legacy of António Costa, Internal Administration Minister José Luís Carneiro, who represented the moderate faction and a continuation of Costism, and Daniel Adrião, a longtime critic of Costa as Secretary-General, who represented a rupture.

Even with the candidates claiming the contrary, this leadership election was viewed as another ideological dispute to decide what direction the party and the country should take, similar to the leadership elections of 2014 between Costa and António José Seguro, of 2004 between José Sócrates and Manuel Alegre and of 1992 between António Guterres and Jorge Sampaio.

With a turnout rate of around 70%, Pedro Nuno Santos was elected as the new Secretary-General of the Socialist Party with almost 61% of the votes, against the 37% of José Luís Carneiro. Daniel Adrião polled below 1%.[3]

Operation Influencer

The Socialist Party (PS), led by then Prime Minister António Costa, won an absolute majority in the 2022 legislative election with 41 percent of the votes and 120 seats in the 230 seat Assembly of the Republic.

António Costa's third government was sworn in on 30 March 2022. This government proved to be unstable and experienced several scandals. By mid-2023, the government had seen the resignations of 11 secretaries of state and two ministers.[4] The biggest scandal involved TAP Air Portugal and a compensation payment to a government member, Alexandra Reis.[5] This case was followed by a violent incident, in late April 2023, at the Ministry of Infrastructure, between government staff members and an advisor to Minister João Galamba regarding an alleged stolen laptop.[6] The deployment of the Portuguese Secret Services in this case stirred a clash between Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, the incumbent president of Portugal, and Prime Minister António Costa concerning the future of Galamba and the government itself.[7]

On 7 November 2023, the Public Security Police and the Public Prosecutor's office carried out a series of searches at the official residence of the Prime Minister and other ministries, leading to the arrest of the Prime Minister's chief of staff.[8] Costa was named as a suspect in a corruption case involving the awarding of contracts for the lithium and hydrogen businesses, but denied any wrongdoing.[9] He met President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the Presidential Palace and announced his resignation shortly after, stating that he would not run for re-election.[10]

Following Costa's resignation the Socialist Party proposed a new cabinet led either by the President of the Assembly of the Republic, Augusto Santos Silva,[11] the Governor of the Bank of Portugal, Mário Centeno,[12] or by the former minister António Vitorino,[13] that would last until the end of the government's term in 2026. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa however, after meeting with the Council of State, dissolved the assembly and called an early election for 10 March 2024.[14]

The Prime Minister's resignation was not made official immediately; it was postponed until 8 December 2023, so that the State Budget for 2024 could be approved by parliament.[15][16] It was the first time a single party majority government did not complete its full term in democratic Portugal.[17]

Candidates

Declared

Name Born Experience Announcement date Ref.

José Luís Carneiro
4 October 1971
(age 52)
Baião
Minister of Internal Administration (2022–2024)
Member of Parliament for Braga (since 2022)
Deputy Secretary-general of the Socialist Party (2019–2022)
Secretary of State for Portuguese Communities (2015–2019)
Mayor of Baião (2005–2015)
Member of Parliament for Porto (2005; 2015–2022)
10 November 2023 [18]

Pedro Nuno Santos
13 April 1977
(age 46)
São João da Madeira
Member of Parliament for Aveiro (since 2005)
Minister of Infrastructure and Housing (2019–2023)
Secretary of State for Parliament Affairs (2015–2019)
Secretary-general of the Socialist Youth (2004–2008)
13 November 2023 [19]
Daniel Adrião 1 September 1967
(age 56)
Member of the National Commission of the Socialist Party (2016–2025)
Political activist
Candidate in the PS leadership elections of 2016, 2018 and 2021
17 November 2023 [20]

Declined

Notable endorsements

José Luís Carneiro
Presidents of the Assembly of the Republic
Ministers
Members of the Assembly of the Republic
MEPs
Mayors
Individuals
Pedro Nuno Santos
Ministers
Members of the Assembly of the Republic
MEPs
Mayors
Declined to endorse
Prime Ministers
Ministers
Members of the Assembly of the Republic

Campaign period

Candidates' slogans

Candidate Original slogan English translation Refs
José Luís Carneiro « Por Todos. Para Todos » "By All. For All" [64]
Pedro Nuno Santos « Portugal Inteiro » "Whole Portugal" [64]
Daniel Adrião « Democracia Plena » "Full Democracy" [65]

Candidates' debates

José Luís Carneiro and Daniel Adrião proposed a series of debates between the candidates, but Pedro Nuno Santos refused to participate in any debate. Therefore, no debates between the candidates to the leadership were held.[66]

Opinion polling

All voters

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Others/
Undecided
Lead
Nuno Santos Carneiro
ICS/ISCTE 18–27 Nov 2023 803 26 24 50 2
CESOP–UCP 15–24 Nov 2023 1,102 29 38 33 9
Aximage 18–23 Nov 2023 802 52 26 22 26
Intercampus 14–17 Nov 2023 604 31.7 28.1 40.2 3.6
Aximage 10–13 Nov 2023 504 32 18 50[a] 14
Aximage 8–9 Nov 2023 516 30 9 61[b] 21

PS voters

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Others/
Undecided
Lead
Nuno Santos Carneiro
ICS/ISCTE 18–27 Nov 2023 ? 37 32 31 5
CESOP–UCP 15–24 Nov 2023 ? 39 34 27 5
Aximage 18–23 Nov 2023 ? 61 26 13 35
Aximage 10–13 Nov 2023 ? 31 23 47[c] 8
Hypothetical polling

All voters

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Fernando Medina Pedro Nuno Santos Mariana Vieira da Silva Ana Catarina Mendes Marta Temido Augusto Santos Silva Pedro Adão e Silva Others/

Undecided

Lead
ICS/ISCTE 10–18 Sep 2022 807 12 6 4 3 N/a 8 1 65 4
Intercampus 14–23 Sep 2021 609 21.0 20.0 11.7 10.2 25.9 N/a N/a 11.2 4.9

PS voters

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Fernando Medina Pedro Nuno Santos Mariana Vieira da Silva Ana Catarina Mendes Augusto Santos Silva Others/

Undecided

Lead
ICS/ISCTE 10–18 Sep 2022 807 15 6 6 5 16 51 1

Results

National summary

Candidate 15 & 16 December 2023
Votes %
Pedro Nuno Santos 24,21960.83
José Luís Carneiro 14,89137.40
Daniel Adrião 3820.96
Total 39,492
Valid votes 39,49299.19
Invalid and blank ballots 3220.81
Votes cast / turnout 39,81468.65
Registered voters 57,993
Source:[67]
Vote share
Pedro Nuno Santos
60.83%
José Luís Carneiro
37.40%
Daniel Adrião
0.96%
Blank/Invalid
0.81%

Results by party federation

The following table shows a breakdown of the results of the election by party federation, which are mostly equal to the electoral circles.[67]

Result breakdown of the 2023 Portuguese Socialist Party leadership election
Federation Pedro Nuno Santos José Luís Carneiro Daniel Adrião Invalid
ballots
Votes cast Registered
Votes % Votes % Votes %
Algarve 710 62.50 413 36.36 12 1.06 1 1,136 1,491
Aveiro 1,299 75.17 404 23.38 10 0.58 15 1,728 2,096
Baixo Alentejo 405 56.96 291 40.93 6 0.84 9 711 862
Braga 2,928 55.37 2,280 43.12 19 0.36 61 5,288 7,897
Bragança 560 58.82 373 39.18 9 0.95 10 952 1,131
Castelo Branco 549 58.10 373 39.47 5 0.53 18 945 1,123
Coimbra 1,874 68.80 800 29.37 35 1.28 15 2,724 3,506
Évora 270 63.08 145 33.88 8 1.87 5 428 534
Guarda 487 60.05 317 39.09 5 0.62 2 811 986
Leiria 611 58.58 410 39.31 13 1.25 9 1,043 1,249
Lisbon: Urban Area 3,265 66.85 1,519 31.10 61 1.25 39 4,884 7,165
Lisbon: Oeste 126 36.42 212 61.27 5 1.45 3 346 415
Portalegre 544 68.77 230 29.08 8 1.01 9 791 1,036
Porto 4,951 56.88 3,627 41.67 53 0.61 73 8,704 11,321
Santarém 752 70.28 293 27.38 16 1.50 9 1,070 1,252
Setúbal 1,382 66.38 656 31.51 27 1.30 17 2,082 2,942
Viana do Castelo 546 65.00 289 34.40 4 0.48 1 840 976
Vila Real 499 46.81 557 52.25 10 0.94 0 1,066 1,316
Viseu 1,386 67.68 635 31.01 3 0.15 24 2,048 2,478
Azores 321 65.91 165 33.88 0 0.00 1 487 4,677
Madeira 493 40.28 725 59.23 6 0.49 0 1,224 1896
Europe 117 54.67 77 35.98 19 8.88 1 214 892
Outside of Europe 144 49.32 100 34.25 48 16.44 0 292 752

See also

Notes

References

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