2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Republican businessman Dave McCormick won his first term in office, defeating Democratic three-term incumbent Bob Casey Jr. in what was considered a major upset.[1] Most predictions gave Casey a slight advantage, and he led in most polls. Along with Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Jon Tester in Montana, Casey was one of three incumbent senators to lose re-election in 2024, all of whom were Democrats first elected in 2006.[2]
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November 5, 2024
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McCormick: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Casey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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The primary election took place on April 23, 2024.[3] The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain their majority in 2024.[4] The Associated Press and Fox News declared McCormick the winner on November 7,[5] while Decision Desk HQ called the race for McCormick on November 14.[6] CNN, NBC, ABC, and CBS all called the race for McCormick on November 21; Casey conceded the race later that day,[7] halted a recount and confirmed the result.[8]
This was Pennsylvania's closest US Senate election since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment, as well as the closest Senate election of the 2024 cycle. McCormick was the only Republican challenger to win in a state flipped by Trump in the 2024 presidential election. The other three Republican Senate gains were in states Trump had won in all three of his runs. With Democrats flipping the other Senate seat two years earlier, this was the first time since the 2012 Senate election in Indiana where the opposite party flipped a seat after losing one in the previous cycle.
Notably, the margin of just 0.22% between the Republican and Democratic candidates is fewer than the votes received by either the Libertarian candidate, John Thomas (1.29% of the vote), the Green candidate, Leila Hazou (0.95% of the vote), or the Constitution candidate, Marty Selker (0.34% of the vote). This was Casey's first general election loss of his political career, and the second counting Casey's primary election loss in 2002. This election made Pennsylvania one of several states to have a younger senior senator (John Fetterman) and an older junior senator (McCormick). McCormick was sworn in on January 3, 2025.
Background
Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats had controlled both U.S. Senate seats, the governorship, a majority of its U.S. House delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania was in 2016.[9][10][11][12]
Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in the blue wave of 2006, defeating then-incumbent Senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points (when he ran ahead of Obama by almost 4 points) and in the blue wave of 2018 by 13 percentage points.[13][14][15] Given these three decisive victories, Casey's fourth term appeared inevitable for much of the race. However, tightening polls in the final weeks indicated a closer contest, even as Casey was largely considered the favorite to win.[16]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Bob Casey Jr., incumbent U.S. senator (2007–2025)[17]
Disqualified
Endorsements
Bob Casey Jr.
Executive officials
- Patrick Murphy, Acting Secretary of the Army (2016), former U.S. representative for PA-8 (2007–2011)[20]
U.S. senators
- John Fetterman, U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (2023–present)[21]
- Mark Kelly, U.S. senator from Arizona (2020–present)[22]
U.S. representatives
- Chris Carney, PA-10 (2007–2011)[20]
- Chris Deluzio, PA-17 (2023–present)[21]
- Chrissy Houlahan, PA-6 (2019–present)[20]
- Conor Lamb, PA-17 (2018–2023)[20]
Statewide officials
- Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)[21]
- Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan (2019-present)[23]
Individuals
- Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer[24]
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[25]
Political parties
Organizations
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)[27]
- CASA in Action[28]
- Council for a Livable World[29]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[30]
- End Citizens United[31]
- Feminist Majority PAC[32]
- Giffords[33]
- Harvard College Democrats[34]
- Human Rights Campaign[35]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[36]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[37]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[38]
- League of Conservation Voters[39]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[40]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[41]
- NextGen America PAC[25]
- Peace Action[42]
- Pennsylvania State Education Association[43]
- People for the American Way[44]
- Swing Left[45]
Labor unions
- Actors' Equity Association[46]
- AFSCME Council 13[47]
- Association of Flight Attendants[48]
- National Education Association[49]
- Pennsylvania AFL–CIO[50]
- United Mine Workers of America[51]
- United Steelworkers[52]
Newspapers
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Bob Casey Jr. (D) | $23,790,263 | $12,391,802 | $11,886,480 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[54] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | 1,024,545 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 1,024,545 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Dave McCormick, former U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (2007–2009), former CEO of Bridgewater Associates (2020–2022), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[56]
Withdrawn
- Brandi Tomasetti, former Conestoga Township treasurer and secretary (ran as a write-in candidate)[57]
Disqualified
- Joseph Vodvarka, spring manufacturer and perennial candidate[58]
Declined
- Kathy Barnette, political commentator, nominee for Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district in 2020, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[59]
- Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania State Treasurer (2021–present)[60] (running for re-election)[61]
- Doug Mastriano, state senator for SD-33 (2019–present) and nominee for Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022[62] (endorsed McCormick)[63]
Endorsements
Dave McCormick
Executive Branch officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States (2001–2009)[64]
- Karl Rove, former White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy (2005–2007)[64]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) and Republican presidential candidate[65]
Federal officials
- John Bolton, former National Security Advisor (2018–2019) and former Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)[66]
- Dina Powell, former Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategy (2017–2018) (his wife)[67]
State cabinet officials
- Robert Gleason, former Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth (1985–1987)[68]
U.S senators
- Pat Toomey, U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (2011–2023)[69]
- Rick Santorum, U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007)[70]
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present)[71]
- Steve Daines, U.S. senator from Montana (2015–present)[72]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. senator from Kentucky (1985–present) and Senate Minority Leader (2007–2015, 2021–2025)[73]
U.S. representatives
- Brian Fitzpatrick, PA-1 (2017–present)[68]
- Jim Jordan, OH-4 (2007–present)[74]
- John Joyce, PA-13 (2019–present)[68]
- Mike Kelly, PA-16 (2011–present)[68]
- Dan Meuser, PA-9 (2019–present)[68]
- Scott Perry, PA-10 (2013–present)[68]
- Guy Reschenthaler, PA-14 (2019–present)[68]
- Lloyd Smucker, PA-11 (2017–present)[68]
- Glenn Thompson, PA-15 (2009–present)[68]
State senators
- Ryan Aument, state senator for SD-36 (2015–2024)[75]
- Doug Mastriano, state senator for SD-33 (2019–present) and 2022 GOP nominee for Governor[63]
Local officials
- Sam DeMarco, at-large Allegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present)[76]
Party officials
- Andrew Reilly, Republican National Committeeman from Pennsylvania (2020–present)[68]
- Christine Toretti, Republican National Committeewoman from Pennsylvania (1997–2025)[68]
Organizations
- Americans for Prosperity[77]
- Conservative Political Action Conference[78]
- Log Cabin Republicans[79]
- Pennsylvania Federation and Penn State College Republicans[80][81]
- Republican Jewish Coalition[82]
Political parties
Individuals
- Kenneth C. Griffin, businessman[84]
- Paul Tudor Jones, philanthropist[84]
- Matt Schlapp, chair of the American Conservative Union (2014–present)[78]
- Charles R. Schwab, investor[84]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Dave McCormick (R) | $11,052,879 | $4,660,701 | $6,399,998 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[54] | |||
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kathy Barnette |
Doug Mastriano |
David McCormick |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[85] | March 9–10, 2023 | 616 (LV) | – | 11% | 39% | 21% | 29% |
| – | – | 42% | 28% | 29% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dave McCormick | 878,320 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 878,320 | 100.00% | ||
Third parties
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[90] | Tossup | October 21, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[91] | Tilt D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[92] | Lean D | June 13, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[93] | Tossup | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[94] | Lean D | October 24, 2024 |
| CNalysis[95] | Lean D | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics[96] | Tossup | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[97] | Lean D | October 23, 2024 |
| 538[98] | Lean D | October 28, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Executive branch officials
- Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021–2025), 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017)[99]
- Kamala Harris, 49th Vice President of the United States (2021–2025)[100]
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009–2017)[101]
Dave McCormick (R)
Former U.S. executive officials
- Nikki Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[102]
U.S. Senators
- John Thune, Senate Minority Whip (2021–2025) from South Dakota (2005–present)[103]
Individuals
- Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX[104]
- Ben Shapiro, editor emeritus of The Daily Wire[105]
John Thomas (L)
Individuals
- Ben Zeisloft, Christian conservative commentator for The Daily Wire[106]
- Bill Cox, Pennsylvania state director for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s presidential campaign[107]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Bob Casey (D) | $52,879,737 | $50,545,793 | $2,821,961 |
| Dave McCormick (R) | $27,698,652[b] | $26,030,736 | $1,675,736 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[54] | |||
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Casey | McCormick | |||||
| 1 | October 3, 2024 | WHTM-TV | Dennis Owens | YouTube | P | P |
| 2 | October 15, 2024 | WPVI-TV | Matt O'Donnell, Sharrie Williams, Ilia Garcia | C-SPAN | P | P |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
Dave McCormick (R) |
Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 538[108] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.2% | 45.4% | 6.4% | Casey +2.8% |
| RealClearPolitics[109] | October 21 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.1% | 46.3% | 5.6% | Casey +1.8% |
| 270toWin[110] | October 24 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.4% | 45.9% | 5.7% | Casey +2.5% |
| TheHill/DDHQ[111] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.6% | 46.6% | 4.8% | Casey +2.0% |
| Average | 48.3% | 46.1% | 5.6% | Casey +2.2% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
Dave McCormick (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[112] | November 3–4, 2024 | 1,840 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 47% | 2% | 2% |
| Survation[113] | November 1–4, 2024 | 929 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 3%[d] | 6% |
| Research Co.[114] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 46% | 2%[e] | 4% |
| Patriot Polling (R)[115] | November 1–3, 2024 | 903 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | – | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[116] | November 1–3, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | – | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[117] | November 1–2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[118] | November 1–2, 2024 | 2,049 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 47% | 3%[f] | 2% |
| Emerson College[119][A] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[120][B] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 1,527 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 45% | – | 4% |
| 1,527 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 45% | – | 6% | ||
| Mainstreet Research/FAU[121] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 699 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 44% | 1%[g] | 6% |
| 726 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 43% | 2%[h] | 7% | ||
| Morning Consult[122] | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 1,538 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
| AtlasIntel[123] | October 30–31, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 3%[f] | 2% |
| OnMessage (R)[124] | October 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
| Data for Progress (D)[125] | October 25–31, 2024 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | 2%[i] | 4% |
| YouGov[126][C] | October 25–31, 2024 | 947 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 44% | – | 6% |
| 982 (RV) | 50% | 43% | – | 6% | |||
| ActiVote[127] | October 14–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50.5% | 49.5% | – | – |
| Muhlenberg College[128][D] | October 27–30, 2024 | 460 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 49% | 46% | 3% | 1% |
| Suffolk University[129][E] | October 27–30, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 2%[i] | 2% |
| Marist College[130] | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,400 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 48% | 1%[j] | 1% |
| 1,558 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 48% | 1%[j] | 1% | ||
| Echelon Insights[131] | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 47% | 3%[k] | 5% |
| The Washington Post[132] | October 26–30, 2024 | 1,204 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 46% | 2%[l] | 3% |
| 1,204 (RV) | 49% | 45% | 3%[m] | 3% | |||
| AtlasIntel[133] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,229 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 3%[f] | 2% |
| Fox News[134] | October 24–28, 2024 | 1,057 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | – | 1% |
| 1,310 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 51% | 46% | 1% | 2% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[135] | October 24–28, 2024 | 2,186 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 50% | 47% | 2%[n] | 1% |
| Monmouth University[136] | October 24–28, 2024 | 824 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 44% | – | 12% |
| CNN/SSRS[137] | October 23–28, 2024 | 819 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 45% | 6%[o] | 1% |
| CBS News/YouGov[138] | October 22–28, 2024 | 1,249 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 42% | 3%[p] | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[139] | October 26–27, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | 2%[q] | 4% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[140][F] | October 22–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 42% | 5%[r] | 9% |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov[141] | October 16–23, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 3%[s] | 7% |
| Emerson College[142][G] | October 21–22, 2024 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 46% | 2%[t] | 6% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[143] | October 18–22, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 2%[u] | 4% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[144] | October 9–20, 2024 | 583 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 3% |
| 794 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 41% | 5%[v] | 6% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[145] | October 17–19, 2024 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
| AtlasIntel[146] | October 12–17, 2024 | 2,048 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 48% | 2%[w] | 3% |
| The Bullfinch Group[147] | October 11–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | – | 8% |
| YouGov[148][H] | October 7–17, 2024 | 1,043 (LV) | ± 3.44% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
| 1,062 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% | ||
| Morning Consult[122] | October 6–15, 2024 | 1,395 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| New York Times/Siena College[149][B] | October 7–10, 2024 | 857 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| 857 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 43% | – | 9% | ||
| American Pulse Research & Polling[150] | October 2–10, 2024 | 1,193 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 45% | 2%[x] | 5% |
| TIPP Insights (R)[151][F] | October 7–9, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 43% | 1%[y] | 9% |
| 1,079 (RV) | 48% | 40% | 1%[z] | 12% | |||
| UMass Lowell/YouGov[152] | October 2–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 3%[aa] | 10% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[153] | October 7–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 45% | 2%[q] | 6% |
| Emerson College[154][A] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Research Co.[155] | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 44% | 1%[ab] | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[156] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 51% | 43% | 2%[ac] | 5% |
| ActiVote[157] | September 6 – October 7, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
| OnMessage (R)[158][ad] | September 28–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 44% | 5%[ae] | 7% |
| Patriot Polling (R)[159] | September 27–29, 2024 | 816 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | – | – |
| The Bullfinch Group[160][I] | September 26–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 48% | 39% | 12%[af] | – |
| 52% | 42% | 6%[ag] | – | ||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[161] | September 26–29, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
| Emerson College[162][G] | September 27–28, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
| AtlasIntel[163] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 45% | 1%[ah] | 6% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[164][J] | September 19–25, 2024 | 474 (LV) | – | 48% | 42% | 3%[ai] | 6% |
| 52% | 45% | – | 3% | ||||
| Fox News[165] | September 20–24, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 44% | 1%[aj] | 2% |
| 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 44% | 1%[aj] | 2% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[166][K] | September 17–24, 2024 | 816 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[167] | September 16–22, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 40% | 1%[ak] | 11% |
| RMG Research[168][L] | September 18–20, 2024 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 44% | 1%[aj] | 5% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[169][M] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Muhlenberg College[170][D] | September 16–19, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 43% | 5% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[171][N] | September 16–19, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 41% | 2%[al] | 10% |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov[172] | September 11–19, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 38% | 3%[aa] | 13% |
| Emerson College[173][A] | September 15–18, 2024 | 880 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
| MassINC Polling Group[174][O] | September 12–18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 2%[am] | 6% |
| Morning Consult[122] | September 9–18, 2024 | 1,756 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
| Marist College[175] | September 12–17, 2024 | 1,663 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 46% | 1%[j] | 1% |
| 1,476 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 47% | – | 1% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[176] | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,331 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 52% | 43% | 1%[an] | 3% |
| The Washington Post[177] | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 46% | 7%[ao] | – |
| 48% | 48% | 5%[ap] | – | ||||
| New York Times/Siena College[178][B] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,082 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
| 1,082 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% | ||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[179] | September 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | 2%[q] | 5% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[180] | September 4–15, 2024 | 890 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 40% | 3%[aq] | 10% |
| Suffolk University[181][E] | September 11–14, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 43% | 2%[ar] | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[182][N] | September 6–9, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 36% | 5%[as] | 14% |
| Morning Consult[122] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,910 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
| co/efficient (R)[183] | September 4–6, 2024 | 889 (LV) | ± 3.29% | 45% | 36% | – | 19% |
| CBS News/YouGov[184] | September 3–6, 2024 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 3%[at] | 8% |
| YouGov[185][C] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 41% | – | 8% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[186] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | – | 8% |
| CNN/SRSS[187] | August 23–29, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 46% | 46% | 7%[au] | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[188][N] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 38% | 4%[av] | 14% |
| Emerson College[189][A] | August 25–28, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[190][P] | August 23, 2024 | 713 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| 800 (RV) | – | 45% | 40% | – | 15% | ||
| ActiVote[191] | August 3–23, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[192][Q] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
| Cygnal (R)[193] | August 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| 42% | 38% | 7%[aw] | 13% | ||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[194][N] | August 12–15, 2024 | 825 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 36% | 1%[ax] | 17% |
| Emerson College[195] | August 13–14, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[196] | August 8–12, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 52% | 44% | 1%[ay] | 3% |
| The Bullfinch Group[197][R] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[198] | July 31 – August 11, 2024 | 920 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 36% | 3%[az] | 13% |
| New York Times/Siena College[199] | August 6–9, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 36% | – | 14% |
| 693 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 37% | – | 11% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[200][N] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 40% | 2%[ba] | 12% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[201][J] | July 26 – August 2, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 53% | 40% | – | 7% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[202] | July 22–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
| Fox News[203] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 42% | – | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[204][N] | July 22–24, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | 4%[bb] | 11% |
| Emerson College[205][S] | July 22–23, 2024 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[206][T] | July 20–21, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[207][U] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[208][N] | July 16–18, 2024 | 688 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 3%[bc] | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[209][V] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
| YouGov[210][C] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 38% | 1% | 11% |
| 889 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College[211] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | – | 10% |
| 872 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% | ||
| Expedition Strategies[212][W] | June 24 – July 8, 2024 | 284 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[213][M] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 4% |
| Cygnal (R)[214] | June 27–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| The Bullfinch Group[215][X] | June 14–19, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 36% | – | 16% |
| Emerson College[216][A] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| Marist College[217] | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,181 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 46% | – | 2% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU[218] | May 30–31, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 40% | 5% | 7% |
| 923 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 42% | 3% | 6% | ||
| KAConsulting (R)[219][Y] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 47% | 37% | 4%[bd] | 12% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[220][J] | May 6–13, 2024 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| New York Times/Siena College[221][B] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
| 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[222][K] | April 24–30, 2024 | 1,398 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| Emerson College[223][A] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| CBS News/YouGov[224] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,306 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
| Muhlenberg College[225] | April 15–25, 2024 | 417 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 45% | 41% | 5% | 9% |
| The Bullfinch Group[226][R] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | 9% | 8% |
| National Public Affairs[227] | March 2024 | 759 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 28% | – | 40% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[228] | March 20–31, 2024 | 431 (RV) | ± 5.7% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
| The Bullfinch Group[229][X] | March 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 30% | 8% | 15% |
| Emerson College[230] | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[231] | February 27 – March 7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 42% | – | 10% |
| Emerson College[232] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | – | 13% |
| Chism Strategies[233] | February 6–8, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 37% | – | 25% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[234][Z] | January 22–25, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 40% | – | 12% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[235] | January 17–28, 2024 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 35% | 4% | 14% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[236] | January 15–21, 2024 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 42% | 3% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[237] | January 4–8, 2024 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 53% | 43% | 1%[aj] | 2% |
| The Bullfinch Group[238][X] | December 8–12, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 27% | 13%[be] | 20% |
| Change Research (D)[239][AA] | December 3–7, 2023 | 2,532 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 0% | 15% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[240] | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 39% | 4% | 12% |
| Emerson College[241] | October 1–4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 41% | 33% | 8% | 18% |
| Quinnipiac University[242] | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 44% | 2%[bf] | 4% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[243] | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 41% | 1% | 5% |
| Cygnal (R)[244] | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | 0% | 13% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[245] | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | – | 23% |
Hypothetical polling
Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
Doug Mastriano (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College[245] | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Cygnal (R)[244] | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dave McCormick | 3,399,295 | 48.82% | +6.20% | |
| Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | 3,384,180 | 48.60% | −7.14% | |
| Libertarian | John Thomas | 89,653 | 1.29% | +0.27% | |
| Green | Leila Hazou | 66,388 | 0.95% | +0.33% | |
| Constitution | Marty Selker | 23,621 | 0.34% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 6,963,137 | 100.0% | |||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Results by county
| County[247] | Dave McCormick Republican |
Bob Casey Jr. Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 38,505 | 63.88% | 19,947 | 33.09% | 1,824 | 3.03% | 18,556 | 30.79% | 60,276 |
| Allegheny | 272,861 | 38.11% | 425,280 | 59.40% | 17,781 | 2.48% | -152,419 | -21.29% | 715,922 |
| Armstrong | 26,653 | 72.14% | 9,136 | 24.73% | 1,155 | 3.13% | 17,517 | 47.42% | 36,944 |
| Beaver | 53,593 | 56.56% | 38,529 | 40.66% | 2,635 | 2.78% | 15,064 | 15.90% | 94,757 |
| Bedford | 22,855 | 81.50% | 4,624 | 16.49% | 564 | 2.01% | 18,231 | 65.01% | 28,043 |
| Berks | 108,058 | 53.06% | 89,063 | 45.74% | 6,521 | 3.20% | 18,995 | 9.33% | 203,642 |
| Blair | 44,741 | 69.13% | 18,445 | 28.50% | 1,537 | 2.37% | 26,296 | 40.63% | 64,723 |
| Bradford | 22,099 | 71.50% | 8,007 | 25.90% | 804 | 2.60% | 14,092 | 45.59% | 30,910 |
| Bucks | 194,203 | 48.57% | 196,444 | 49.13% | 9,186 | 2.30% | −2,241 | -0.56% | 399,833 |
| Butler | 77,328 | 63.93% | 40,973 | 33.87% | 2,666 | 2.20% | 36,355 | 30.05% | 120,967 |
| Cambria | 46,482 | 65.47% | 22,887 | 32.24% | 1,635 | 2.30% | 23,595 | 33.23% | 71,004 |
| Cameron | 1,558 | 70.37% | 580 | 26.20% | 76 | 3.43% | 978 | 44.17% | 2,214 |
| Carbon | 22,603 | 64.45% | 11,570 | 32.99% | 898 | 2.56% | 11,033 | 31.46% | 35,071 |
| Centre | 38,054 | 47.32% | 40,382 | 50.22% | 1,979 | 2.46% | -2,328 | -2.89% | 80,415 |
| Chester | 138,271 | 42.60% | 178,765 | 55.07% | 7,551 | 2.33% | -40,494 | −12.65% | 324,587 |
| Clarion | 14,179 | 72.06% | 4,683 | 23.80% | 815 | 4.14% | 9,496 | 48.26% | 19,677 |
| Clearfield | 29,063 | 72.27% | 10,111 | 25.14% | 1,038 | 2.58% | 18,952 | 47.13% | 40,212 |
| Clinton | 12,250 | 66.40% | 5,722 | 31.02% | 476 | 2.58% | 6,528 | 35.38% | 18,448 |
| Columbia | 20,617 | 63.63% | 10,969 | 33.85% | 814 | 2.51% | 9,648 | 29.78% | 32,400 |
| Crawford | 28,234 | 63.10% | 13,370 | 31.30% | 1,110 | 2.60% | 14,864 | 31.80% | 42,714 |
| Cumberland | 78,178 | 53.04% | 64,713 | 43.90% | 4,512 | 3.06% | 13,465 | 9.14% | 147,403 |
| Dauphin | 66,949 | 44.95% | 77,022 | 51.71% | 4,985 | 3.34% | −10,073 | -6.76% | 148,956 |
| Delaware | 121,482 | 37.21% | 197,424 | 60.48% | 7,551 | 2.31% | −75,942 | -23.26% | 326,457 |
| Elk | 11,939 | 69.75% | 4,679 | 28.33% | 499 | 2.92% | 7,260 | 42.42% | 17,117 |
| Erie | 65,603 | 47.94% | 67,868 | 49.60% | 3,371 | 2.46% | −2,265 | -1.66% | 136,842 |
| Fayette | 40,804 | 64.82% | 20,752 | 32.97% | 1,389 | 2.21% | 20,052 | 31.86% | 62,945 |
| Forest | 1,808 | 68.25% | 741 | 27.97% | 100 | 3.78% | 1,067 | 40.28% | 2,649 |
| Franklin | 57,217 | 68.84% | 23,591 | 28.38% | 2,313 | 2.78% | 33,626 | 40.46% | 83,121 |
| Fulton | 6,773 | 83.45% | 1,197 | 14.75% | 146 | 1.80% | 5,576 | 68.70% | 8,116 |
| Greene | 11,643 | 67.91% | 5,075 | 29.60% | 427 | 2.49% | 6,568 | 38.31% | 17,145 |
| Huntingdon | 16,910 | 74.43% | 5,582 | 24.24% | 986 | 4.28% | 11,328 | 49.19% | 23,028 |
| Indiana | 27,881 | 66.28% | 13,181 | 31.33% | 1,006 | 2.39% | 14,700 | 34.94% | 42,068 |
| Jefferson | 17,618 | 76.34% | 4,834 | 20.95% | 626 | 2.71% | 12,784 | 55.39% | 23,078 |
| Juniata | 9,252 | 76.82% | 2,478 | 20.58% | 313 | 2.60% | 6,774 | 56.25% | 12,043 |
| Lackawanna | 51,944 | 44.82% | 61,653 | 53.20% | 2,289 | 1.98% | −9,709 | −8.38% | 115,886 |
| Lancaster | 162,105 | 56.22% | 118,580 | 41.12% | 7,668 | 2.66% | 43,525 | 15.10% | 288,353 |
| Lawrence | 29,405 | 62.84% | 16,176 | 34.57% | 1,211 | 2.59% | 13,229 | 28.27% | 46,792 |
| Lebanon | 46,172 | 63.13% | 24,745 | 33.83% | 2,222 | 3.04% | 21,427 | 29.30% | 73,139 |
| Lehigh | 87,147 | 46.46% | 94,875 | 50.58% | 5,562 | 2.96% | −7,728 | −4.12% | 187,584 |
| Luzerne | 87,048 | 56.17% | 64,495 | 41.61% | 3,442 | 2.22% | 22,553 | 14.55% | 154,985 |
| Lycoming | 40,672 | 68.36% | 17,354 | 29.17% | 1,472 | 2.47% | 23,318 | 39.19% | 59,498 |
| McKean | 13,799 | 70.51% | 5,231 | 26.73% | 541 | 2.47% | 8,568 | 43.78% | 19,571 |
| Mercer | 36,468 | 62.78% | 20,302 | 34.95% | 1,318 | 2.27% | 16,166 | 27.83% | 58,088 |
| Mifflin | 16,413 | 74.79% | 4,991 | 22.74% | 542 | 2.47% | 11,422 | 52.05% | 21,946 |
| Monroe | 40,884 | 48.07% | 41,712 | 49.04% | 2,455 | 2.89% | −828 | -0.97% | 85,051 |
| Montgomery | 196,422 | 37.78% | 311,859 | 59.98% | 11,687 | 2.25% | −115,437 | −22.20% | 519,968 |
| Montour | 5,847 | 59.06% | 3,813 | 38.52% | 240 | 2.42% | 2,034 | 20.54% | 9,900 |
| Northampton | 85,787 | 49.13% | 84,762 | 48.54% | 4,066 | 2.33% | 1,025 | 0.59% | 174,615 |
| Northumberland | 28,706 | 66.31% | 13,432 | 31.03% | 1,156 | 2.66% | 15,274 | 35.28% | 43,294 |
| Perry | 18,355 | 71.48% | 6,470 | 25.19% | 855 | 3.33% | 11,885 | 46.28% | 25,680 |
| Philadelphia | 129,098 | 18.70% | 541,567 | 78.45% | 19,651 | 2.85% | −412,469 | -59.75% | 690,316 |
| Pike | 20,869 | 60.30% | 6,470 | 37.30% | 831 | 2.40% | 7,960 | 23.00% | 34,609 |
| Potter | 7,109 | 78.51% | 1,695 | 18.72% | 251 | 2.77% | 5,414 | 59.79% | 9,055 |
| Schuylkill | 48,553 | 66.66% | 22,224 | 30.51% | 2,063 | 2.83% | 26,329 | 36.15% | 72,840 |
| Snyder | 14,211 | 71.24% | 5,309 | 26.62% | 427 | 2.14% | 8,902 | 44.63% | 19,947 |
| Somerset | 30,667 | 75.14% | 9,059 | 22.20% | 1,090 | 2.66% | 21,608 | 52.94% | 40,816 |
| Sullivan | 2,612 | 70.31% | 1,021 | 27.48% | 82 | 2.21% | 1,591 | 43.83% | 3,715 |
| Susquehanna | 15,545 | 69.97% | 6,129 | 27.59% | 542 | 2.44% | 6,671 | 42.38% | 22,216 |
| Tioga | 15,778 | 73.62% | 5,066 | 23.64% | 588 | 2.74% | 10,712 | 49.98% | 21,432 |
| Union | 12,747 | 60.49% | 7,872 | 37.36% | 453 | 2.15% | 4,875 | 23.13% | 21,072 |
| Venango | 17,825 | 66.93% | 7,902 | 29.67% | 904 | 3.39% | 9,923 | 37.26% | 26,631 |
| Warren | 13,655 | 66.07% | 6,415 | 31.04% | 597 | 2.89% | 7,240 | 35.03% | 20,667 |
| Washington | 71,798 | 59.61% | 45,926 | 38.13% | 2,717 | 2.56% | 25,872 | 21.48% | 120,441 |
| Wayne | 19,331 | 65.90% | 9,385 | 31.99% | 619 | 2.11% | 9,946 | 33.91% | 29,335 |
| Westmoreland | 128,040 | 62.28% | 75,926 | 36.38% | 4,893 | 2.34% | 52,036 | 24.90% | 208,937 |
| Wyoming | 9,919 | 66.04% | 4,750 | 31.63% | 350 | 2.33% | 5,169 | 35.41% | 15,019 |
| York | 148,098 | 59.73% | 91,779 | 37.02% | 8,051 | 3.25% | 56,319 | 22.71% | 247,928 |
| Totals | 3,399,295 | 48.82% | 3,384,180 | 48.60% | 179,662 | 2.58% | 15,115 | 0.22% | 6,963,137 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Beaver (largest municipality: Aliquippa)
- Berks (largest municipality: Reading)
- Northampton (largest municipality: Bethlehem)
By congressional district
McCormick won nine of 17 congressional districts, with the remaining eight going to Casey, including one that elected a Republican.[248][249][250][251]
| District | Casey Jr. | McCormick | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 49.3% | 48.4% | Brian Fitzpatrick |
| 2nd | 67.8% | 29.3% | Brendan Boyle |
| 3rd | 86.7% | 10.4% | Dwight Evans |
| 4th | 56.8% | 40.8% | Madeleine Dean |
| 5th | 62.9% | 34.8% | Mary Gay Scanlon |
| 6th | 54.0% | 43.4% | Chrissy Houlahan |
| 7th | 47.8% | 49.6% | Susan Wild (118th Congress) |
| Ryan Mackenzie (119th Congress) | |||
| 8th | 46.6% | 51.1% | Matt Cartwright (118th Congress) |
| Rob Bresnahan (119th Congress) | |||
| 9th | 31.3% | 66.0% | Dan Meuser |
| 10th | 46.3% | 50.5% | Scott Perry |
| 11th | 38.6% | 58.5% | Lloyd Smucker |
| 12th | 59.1% | 38.3% | Summer Lee |
| 13th | 27.8% | 69.6% | John Joyce |
| 14th | 34.3% | 63.3% | Guy Reschenthaler |
| 15th | 31.2% | 66.1% | Glenn Thompson |
| 16th | 38.9% | 58.7% | Mike Kelly |
| 17th | 52.3% | 45.4% | Chris Deluzio |
Analysis
In Pennsylvania, a statewide recount is triggered under state law if the margin falls within 0.5% of the total vote. Preliminary results for the election reached this threshold on November 13, 2024, with McCormick at 48.9% leading Casey's 48.6%, as outstanding ballots continued to be counted across the state. Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt officially ordered the recount later that evening, with Casey declining to concede.[252] The deadline for the counties to begin their recounts is on November 20, the third Wednesday after the election according to state law, however, counties can start their recounts as early as November 18, with all counties required to submit their results to the Department of State by noon on November 26 as the results must be reported by the Secretary of the Commonwealth by noon on November 27.[253] Additionally, the counties must use different machines for the recount than were used on Election Day.[254]
On Monday, November 18, following a series of challenges and disputes, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court directed all of the state's county election officials not to count certain mail-in ballots which arrived on time yet lacked a correct handwritten date on the return envelope. [255][256]
The last instance of a statewide recount being held was for the 2022 Republican primary for Pennsylvania's Class 3 Senate seat, of which McCormick was also a candidate. Conversely to his stance in the 2024 general election, he unsuccessfully sued to have undated mail-in ballots counted. After completion of the recount he would concede to Mehmet Oz, with the final results expanding Oz's margin by 49 votes.[257]
McCormick benefitted from the presence of former President Donald Trump on the ballot, who carried the state over Vice President Harris by just over 120,000 votes (for a margin of roughly 1.7%) in the concurrent presidential election. Indeed, McCormick cleared 60% in most counties in the state’s less-populated interior and even 70% in many.
Unlike in Ohio and Montana, however, McCormick had to seek support beyond the Trump base as he was running in a swing state. Casey and Trump both won Bucks, Erie, and Monroe Counties. McCormick campaigned with Nikki Haley in the suburbs of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, aiming to appeal to voters uneasy about Trump by positioning himself as a more establishment candidate. Casey aired ads in late October to highlight his votes with the Trump administration, while McCormick tied Casey to Harris, highlighting his votes with the Biden administration. However, both candidates received fewer votes than their respective parties’ presidential candidate in the concurrent 2024 presidential election. Senator McCormick received about 144,000 fewer votes than President Trump, while Senator Casey received almost 39,000 fewer votes than Vice President Harris.[258][259][260]
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - $4,263,800 of this total was self-funded by McCormick
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%
- "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
- "Another candidate" with 1%
- "Another candidate" with 2%
- Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%
- "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- Hazou (G) with 2%; Thomas (L) with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- "Refused" with 2%
- "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 2%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Other" with 2%
- Thomas (L) with 2%; Hazou (G) and Selker (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
- Thomas with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Refuse" with 2%
- "Other" (Thomas (L), Hazou (G) & Selker (C)) with 5%
- "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
- "Another candidate" with 2%
- "Other" with 1%
- "Other" with 1%
- Hazou (G) and Thomas (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
- "Some other candidate" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- Poll sponsored by Sentinel Action Fund
- "Other" with 5%
- "None of the Above" with 9%; "Other" with 3%
- Thomas (L) with 3%, Hazou (G) with 2%, and Selker (C) with 1%
- "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
- "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- "Other" with 1%
- Thomas (L), "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
- "Another candidate" and "Would not vote for senate" each with 1%; "Prefer not to say" with <1%
- "Refused" with 1%
- "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; Thomas (L), Hazou (G), and "Would not vote" each with 1%
- "No opinion/Skipped" with 3%; "Would not vote" each with 2%
- "Other" with 3%
- Thomas (L) with 1%; Selker (C) with 1%; Hazou (G) with <1%
- "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Thomas (L) with 1%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%
- Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
- Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%
- Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
- "Refused" with 1%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%
- John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
- John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
- Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
- "Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
- "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
- "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer
- Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- Poll sponsored by The Morning Call
- Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
- Poll sponsored by Rose Institute of State and Local Government
- Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation
- Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
- Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
- Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
- Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
- Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.
- Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
- Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
- Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
- Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
- Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
- Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
- Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
- Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.