2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
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The 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Pennsylvania. Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro is seeking a second term. He is being challenged by Republican state treasurer Stacy Garrity.
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November 3, 2026
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Primary elections were held on May 19, 2026.[1] Shapiro and Garrity secured their nominations unopposed. This is one of five Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2026 in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2024 presidential election. If elected, Garrity would be the first female governor of Pennsylvania.[2]
Background
Pennsylvania is a purple state located in the Northeastern United States. A part of the Rust Belt, it was narrowly won by Republican Donald Trump in his non-consecutive second victory in 2024 after similarly narrow victories by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in his first election in 2016.[3][4]
The state has a Democratic and Republican senator, making it one of only three states to have a split Senate delegation,[a] while Republicans hold a majority in the state's House delegation, with ten seats to the Democrats' seven.[6] Democrats also control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives while Republicans control the Pennsylvania Senate.[7]
Republicans have not won a Pennsylvania gubernatorial election since 2010. Incumbent Democratic governor Josh Shapiro was first elected with 56.5% of the vote in 2022, succeeding term-limited Democrat Tom Wolf.[8]
Democratic primary
Governor
Candidates
Nominee
- Josh Shapiro, incumbent governor (2023–present)[9]
Declined
- Bob Casey Jr., former U.S. senator (2007–2025)[10]
Endorsements
- Labor unions
- Organizations
- Political parties
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Josh Shapiro (incumbent) | 1,116,960 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 1,116,960 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Nominee
- Austin Davis, incumbent lieutenant governor (2023–present)[17]
Endorsements
- Labor unions
- Political parties
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Austin Davis (incumbent) | 1,072,694 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 1,072,694 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Governor
Stacy Garrity is the only candidate on the ballot for the Republican nomination, making her the presumptive nominee. Supporters of previous nominee State Senator Doug Mastriano launched a write-in campaign, though Mastriano had previously stated he would not run for the nomination and had not expressed support for the campaign.[18][19] Mastriano ultimately received 7,980 write-in votes.[20]
Candidates
Nominee
- Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania state treasurer (2021–present)[21]
Withdrawn
- John Ventre, former Pennsylvania director for the Mutual UFO Network and perennial candidate (ran for lieutenant governor)[22]
Declined
- Scott Martin, state senator from SD-13 (2017–present) and candidate for governor in 2022[23] (endorsed Garrity)[24]
- Doug Mastriano, state senator from SD-33 (2019–present) and nominee for governor in 2022[25]
- Dan Meuser, U.S. representative from PA-09 (2019–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Garrity)[26][27]
- Dave Sunday, Pennsylvania attorney general (2025–present)[28] (endorsed Garrity)[29]
- Glenn Thompson, U.S. representative from PA-15 (2009–present)[30] (running for re-election, endorsed Garrity)[31]
- Mike Turzai, former speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2015–2020) from HD-28 (2001–2020)[28]
Endorsements
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) (previously endorsed Meuser)[32]
- U.S. senators
- Dave McCormick, Pennsylvania (2025–present)[33]
- Rick Santorum, former Pennsylvania (1995–2007)[34]
- U.S. representatives
- Rob Bresnahan, PA-08 (2025–present)[35]
- Ryan Mackenzie, PA-07 (2025-present)[36]
- Dan Meuser, PA-09 (2019–present)[27]
- Lloyd Smucker, PA-11 (2017–present)[37]
- Glenn Thompson, PA-15 (2009–present)[31]
- Scott Perry, PA-10 (2013–present)[38]
- Statewide officials
- Tom Corbett, former governor of Pennsylvania (2011–2015)[39]
- Timothy DeFoor, auditor general of Pennsylvania (2021–present)[40]
- Dave Sunday, Pennsylvania attorney general (2025–present)[29]
- State legislators
- Scott Martin, SD-13 (2017–present)[24]
- Joe Pittman, majority leader of the Pennsylvania Senate (2022–present) from SD-41 (2019–present)[24]
- Jim Struzzi, HD-62 (2018–present)[24]
- Jesse Topper, minority leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2025–present) from HD-78 (2014–present)[24]
- Kim Ward, president pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate (2022–present) from SD-39 (2009–present)[41]
- Martina White, HD-170 (2015–present)[24]
- Organizations
- Political parties
- Executive branch officials
Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)(later endorsed Garrity)[44]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Stacy Garrity |
Doug Mastriano |
Dan Meuser |
Scott Perry |
Kristin Phillips-Hill |
Others | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[45] | September 18–19, 2025 | 524 (V) | ± 4.3% | 20% | 39% | – | – | – | – | 41% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[46] | May 2025 | 433 (LV) | – | 18% | 39% | 6% | – | – | – | 37% |
| Pennsylvania Leadership Conference[47] | April 8, 2024 | 240 (V) | – | 7% | 6% | – | 4% | 3% | 1% | 79% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Stacy Garrity | 641,534 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 641,534 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Nominee
- Jason Richey, chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party and candidate for governor in 2022[48]
Eliminated in primary
- John Ventre, former Pennsylvania director for the Mutual UFO Network and perennial candidate (previously ran for governor)[22]
Withdrawn
Declined
- Tom DiBello, Montgomery County Commissioner[50]
Endorsements
- U.S. senators
- Dave McCormick, Pennsylvania (2025–present)[52]
- U.S. representatives
- Mike Kelly, PA-09 (2011–present)[52]
- Dan Meuser, PA-09 (2019–present)[52]
- Glenn Thompson, PA-15 (2009–present)[52]
- Statewide officials
- Stacy Garrity, treasurer of Pennsylvania (2021–present) and 2026 gubernatorial nominee[48]
- Dave Sunday, Pennsylvania attorney general (2025–present)[52]
- State legislators
- Political parties
Results
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jason Richey | 428,740 | 65.6 | |
| Republican | John Ventre | 225,238 | 34.4 | |
| Total votes | 653,978 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian convention
Governor
Nominee
- Ken Krawchuk, member of the Libertarian Party Judicial Committee and nominee for governor in 1998, 2002, and 2018[54][better source needed]
Lieutenant governor
Nominee
- John Thomas, educator and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024[54][better source needed]
Green convention
The Commonwealth Court ordered Dastra and Bolton off the general election ballot, after failing to reach the required threshold of 5,000 signatures.[55]
Governor
Disqualified
Lieutenant governor
Disqualified
- Craig Bolton, chair of the Philadelphia Green Party[58] (disqualified)[59]
General election
Campaign
A major issue in the general election has been the growing opposition to AI data centers, similarly experienced throughout the country. Shapiro, despite having previously supported the construction of two Amazon data center campuses estimated at $20 million the previous year and being quoted as saying Pennsylvania was "all in on AI",[60] signed an executive order in August 2026 that implemented new regulations on them and eliminated fast-tracking of approvals to build them.[61] Garrity has criticized Shapiro for this, claiming he "sold us out" for his prior support of Amazon's $20 million data center projects, although Garrity has similarly made comments supportive of AI data centers in the past and to which Shapiro has also capitalized on.[62]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[63] | Solid D | September 17, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ[64] | Likely D | September 23, 2026 |
| Fox News[65] | Solid D | July 23, 2026 |
| Inside Elections[66] | Solid D | September 17, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[67] | Solid D | June 5, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] | Safe D | September 3, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin[69] | Solid D | August 25, 2026 |
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Shapiro | Garrity | |||||
| 1[70] | Oct. 7, 2026 | abc27 | Dennis Owens | I | I | |
Post-primary endorsements
- Labor unions
- Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 5[71]
- Pennsylvania AFL-CIO[71]
- Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association[71]
- Organizations
- Statewide officials
- Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida (2019–present)[75]
- State legislators
- Doug Mastriano, SD-33 (2019–present) and 2022 gubernatorial nominee[76]
- Organizations
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Josh Shapiro (D) |
Stacy Garrity (R) |
Other/ |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin[78] | August 27 – September 24, 2026 | September 24, 2026 | 54.7% | 25.3% | 20.0% | Shapiro +29.4% |
| Decision Desk HQ[79] | through September 22, 2026 | September 24, 2026 | 57.1% | 34.0% | 8.9% | Shapiro +23.1% |
| FiftyPlusOne[80] | through September 22, 2026 | September 24, 2026 | 55.4% | 35.2% | 9.4% | Shapiro +20.2% |
| Race to the WH[81] | through September 22, 2026 | September 24, 2026 | 55.2% | 35.5% | 9.3% | Shapiro +19.7% |
| RealClearPolitics[82] | August 17 – September 22, 2026 | September 24, 2026 | 54.8% | 31.8% | 13.4% | Shapiro +23.0% |
| Silver Bulletin[83] | through September 22, 2026 | September 24, 2026 | 56.5% | 34.4% | 9.1% | Shapiro +22.1% |
| Average | 55.6% | 32.7% | 11.7% | Shapiro +22.9% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro (D) |
Stacy Garrity (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University[84][85] | September 15–22, 2026 | 615 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 58% | 38% | – | 4% |
| 615 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 57% | 38% | – | 5% | ||
| PennLive[86][A] | August 18–22, 2026 | 711 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 56% | 25% | – | 19% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[87] | August 17–23, 2026 | 501 (RV) | ± 5.5% | 50% | 25% | 7%[d] | 18% |
| The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University[88][89] | August 17–21, 2026 | 760 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 39% | – | 6% |
| 760 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 54% | 37% | – | 8% | ||
| National Public Affairs (R)[90] | July 26–30, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[91] | July 9–13, 2026 | 895 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 53% | 40% | 3%[e] | 4% |
| PennLive[92][A] | June 18–25, 2026 | 644 (RV) | ± 4.14% | 54% | 29% | 7%[f] | 9% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[93] | June 8–14, 2026 | 546 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 50% | 28% | 6%[g] | 16% |
| MAD Global Strategy[94][B] | June 9–11, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 31% | – | 18% |
| PennLive[95][A] | May 20–24, 2026 | 683 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 53% | 29% | – | 18% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[96] | March 18–29, 2026 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 58% | 36% | – | 5% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[97] | February 18 – March 1, 2026 | 834 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 28% | 7%[h] | 17% |
| Quinnipiac University[98] | February 19–23, 2026 | 836 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 55% | 37% | 1%[i] | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[99] | September 25–29, 2025 | 1,579 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 55% | 39% | 1% | 5% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[100] | September 22–28, 2025 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 54% | 36% | – | 9% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Doug Mastriano
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Josh Shapiro (D) |
Doug Mastriano (R) |
Other/ |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[81] | September 22–29, 2025 | November 24, 2025 | 55.3% | 38.4% | 6.3% | Shapiro +16.9% |
| RealClearPolitics[101] | September 22–29, 2025 | November 24, 2025 | 55.5% | 38.0% | 6.5% | Shapiro +17.5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro (D) |
Doug Mastriano (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[99] | September 25–29, 2025 | 1,579 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 56% | 39% | – | 5% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[102] | September 22–28, 2025 | 704 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 37% | – | 7% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |
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| Republican |
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| Libertarian |
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| Total votes | 100.0 | ||||
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Tony Dastra (G) with 2%; "Some other candidate" with 5%
- "Someone else", "Wouldn't Vote", and "Refused" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- "Some other candidate" with 6%
- "Some other candidate" with 7%
- "Refused" with 1%
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Partisan clients