2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Louisiana. Primary elections were held on May 16, during which no candidates received 50% of the vote. A Republican runoff between state treasurer John Fleming and congresswoman Julia Letlow and a Democratic runoff between political consultant Gary Crockett and Tensas Parish police juror Jamie Davis will both be held June 27 to determine the nominees. The winner will succeed two-term Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy, who was defeated in the primary.
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November 3, 2026
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Considered vulnerable to a primary challenge after he voted to convict President Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial, Cassidy received 24.8% of the vote behind Letlow's 44.8% and Fleming's 28.3%.[1] He became the first elected incumbent senator to lose renomination since Richard Lugar in 2012[a] and one of two to lose renomination in 2026, along with John Cornyn of Texas. Cassidy was also the first to place no better than third in a primary since Hattie Caraway in 1944.[2][b]
With the enactment of House Bill 17 in 2024, the race is the first U.S. Senate election in Louisiana to utilize party primaries instead of a single blanket primary since 2010.[3][4] Democrats have not won a Senate election in Louisiana since 2008.
Background
Change of electoral system
In January 2024, governor Jeff Landry signed House Bill 17, sponsored by representative Julie Emerson, which eliminated the top-two Louisiana primary system in favor of partisan primaries in elections for Congress, the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, the Public Service Commission, and the Supreme Court. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primaries, but not members of other parties, including the Independent Party of Louisiana. The bill also indicated the use of runoff elections if no candidate receives a majority in their respective primary. The law is to take effect beginning with the 2026 elections, making this election the first in which Louisiana will elect a U.S. senator using this system since 2010; the top-two primary was first implemented in congressional elections in 1978.[3]
Primary challenge to Cassidy
Senator Bill Cassidy, who has held this seat since 2015, gained notoriety within the Republican Party for his vocal criticism of President Donald Trump. Cassidy denounced the January 6 U.S. Capitol attack, accused participants of sedition, and voted to certify the 2020 election results[5]. He was one of seven Senate Republicans to vote to convict Trump for incitement of insurrection during his second impeachment trial, prompting the Republican Party of Louisiana to censure him.[6] During Trump's 2024 campaign, Cassidy publicly opposed his candidacy, citing Trump's four criminal indictments.[7][8]
Cassidy's stance led analysts to view him as vulnerable to a pro-Trump primary challenge. Early speculation in 2024 included Congressman Clay Higgins, a supporter of Trump, who ultimately declined to run.[4][9] On January 18, 2026, Trump endorsed Julia Letlow, who officially entered the race two days later.[10][11]
Republican primary
Candidates
Advanced to runoff
- John Fleming, state treasurer (2024–present), former U.S. representative from Louisiana's 4th congressional district (2009–2017), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[12][13]
- Julia Letlow, U.S. representative from Louisiana's 5th congressional district (2021–present)[14]
Eliminated in primary
- Bill Cassidy, incumbent U.S. senator (2015–present)[1][13]
- Mark Spencer[15]
Withdrawn
- Julie Emerson, state representative from the 39th district (2016–present)[16]
- Blake Miguez, state senator from the 22nd district (2024–present) (running for U.S. House; endorsed Letlow)[17][18]
- Kathy Seiden, St. Tammany Parish councilor (endorsed Letlow)[19]
- Eric Skrmetta, member of the Louisiana Public Service Commission from the 1st district (2009–present) (endorsed Letlow)[20]
- Sammy Wyatt, healthcare professional (running for LA-05)[21]
Declined
- Clay Higgins, U.S. representative from Louisiana's 3rd congressional district (running for re-election; endorsed Letlow)[9]
Endorsements
John Fleming
- U.S. representatives
- Paul Gosar, AZ-09 (2011–present)[22]
- Scott Perry, PA-10 (2013–present)[22]
- Marlin Stutzman, IN-03 (2010–2017, 2025–present)[22]
- State legislators
- Elbert Guillory, former state senator from the 24th district (2009–2016)[23]
Julia Letlow
- Executive branch officials
- Jeff Landry, governor of Louisiana (2024–present) and special envoy to Greenland (2025–present)[24]
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[25]
- U.S. senators
- Tim Sheehy, Montana (2025–present)[26][c]
- Katie Britt, Alabama (2023–present)[26][c]
- Jim Banks, Indiana (2025–present)[26][c]
- Bernie Moreno, Ohio (2025–present)[26][c]
- Rick Scott, Florida (2019–present)[26][c]
- U.S. representatives
- Steve Scalise, House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)[27][c]
- Clay Higgins, LA-03 (2017–present)[c]
- Statewide officials
- Liz Murrill, attorney general of Louisiana (2024–present)[28]
- Eric Skrmetta, member of the Louisiana Public Service Commission from the 1st district (2009–present) and former candidate for this seat[20]
- State legislators
- Phillip DeVillier, speaker of the House (2024–present) from the 41st district (2016–present)[18][c]
- Cameron Henry, president of the Senate (2024–present) from the 9th district (2020–present)[18][c]
- Jeremy Stine, Senate majority leader (2024–present) from the 27th district (2022–present)[18][c]
- 40 other state representatives[18][c]
- 12 other state senators[18][c]
- Local officials
- Kathy Seiden, St. Tammany Parish councilor and former candidate for this seat[19]
- Organizations
Bill Cassidy (eliminated)
- U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, Senate majority whip (2025–present) from Wyoming (2007–present)[30]
- Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)[31]
- John Thune, Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)[31]
- State legislators
- Beth Mizell, state senator from the 12th district (2016–present)[32]
- Patrick Connick, state senator from the 8th district (2020–present)[33]
- Individuals
- Drew Brees, former New Orleans Saints player[34]
- Eddie Rispone, businessman and 2019 gubernatorial candidate[34]
- Organizations
Blake Miguez (withdrawn)
- State legislators
- Roger Wilder, state representative from the 71st district (2024–present)[37]
Fundraising
Italics indicated a withdrew, declined, or eliminated candidate.
| Campaign finance reports as of April 26, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Bill Cassidy (R) | $13,325,792 | $9,446,800 | $5,516,669 |
| John Fleming (R) | $11,286,639 | $9,897,447 | $1,389,264 |
| Julia Letlow (R) | $4,398,631 | $2,785,529 | $1,613,102 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[38] | |||
First round
Debates and forums
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Bill Cassidy |
John Fleming |
Julia Letlow |
Other/ Undecided[d] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin[40] | April 30 – May 8, 2026 | May 10, 2026 | 20.5% | 29.0% | 34.5% | 16.0%[e] | Letlow +5.5% |
| Race to the WH[41] | through April 30, 2026 | May 10, 2026 | 25.1% | 24.7% | 20.5% | 29.7%[f] | Cassidy +0.4% |
| FiftyPlusOne[42] | through May 7, 2026 | May 10, 2026 | 23.0% | 24.6% | 32.1% | 20.3% | Letlow +7.5% |
| Average | 22.9% | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.0% | Letlow +2.9% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[g] |
Margin of error |
Bill Cassidy |
John Fleming |
Julia Letlow |
Mark Spencer |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R)[43] | May 6–7, 2026 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 20% | 30% | 42% | 2% | – | 12% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[44][A] | May 4–5, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 26% | 21% | 32% | 1% | – | 19% |
| BDPC[45][B] | April 28–30, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 21% | 21% | 33% | 2% | – | 23% |
| Emerson College[47] | April 24–26, 2026 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 21% | 28% | 27% | 2% | – | 22% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[48] | March 20–24, 2026 | 455 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 21% | 25% | 31% | – | – | 23% |
| Harris, DeVille & Associates[49] | March 13–19, 2026 | 683 (LV) | – | 45% | 21% | 34% | – | – | – |
| BDPC[50] | March 16–17, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 20% | 24% | 29% | – | – | 27% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[51] | March 11–12, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 26% | 19% | 27% | 1% | – | 27% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[52][C] | March 7–10, 2026 | 500 (LV) | – | 35% | 21% | 24% | 2% | – | 18% |
| BDPC[53] | February 21–23, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 28% | 21% | 21% | – | – | 30% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[54] | February 23–24, 2026 | 1,428 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 20% | 34% | 25% | – | – | 21% |
| Cor Strategies (R)[15][D] | February 20–24, 2026 | – (V) | – | 30% | 17% | 15% | 7% | 7% | 24% |
| JMC Analytics & Polling[55][E] | February 14–16, 2026 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 22% | 26% | 25% | 1% | – | 26% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[g] |
Margin of error |
Bill Cassidy |
John Fleming |
Julia Letlow |
Blake Miguez |
Eric Skrmetta |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skrmetta withdraws | ||||||||||
| Miguez withdraws, runs for Letlow's House seat | ||||||||||
| BDPC[56][57] | January 20–22, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 21% | 14% | 27% | 5% | – | 6%[h] | 27% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[58][59][C] | January 20–22, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 32% | 16% | 21% | 9% | 1% | 0%[i] | 19% |
| Letlow enters the race | ||||||||||
| JMC Analytics & Polling[60][E] | January 12–14, 2026 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 22% | 23% | – | – | – | 16%[j] | 39% |
| JMC Analytics & Polling[61][E] | October 15–17, 2025 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 23% | 25% | – | – | – | 17%[k] | 35% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[62][C] | April 14–16, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 28% | – | – | – | 3%[l] | 34% |
| JMC Analytics & Polling[63][E] | February 24–26, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 27% | 29% | – | 6% | 2% | – | 36% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[g] |
Margin of error |
Bill Cassidy |
Clay Higgins |
John Fleming |
Julia Letlow |
Blake Miguez |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R)[64][F] | March 6–10, 2025 | 1,068 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 24% | 31% | 17% | 20% | 4% | 4% |
| 28% | 39% | 25% | – | 3% | 5% | ||||
| 28% | 42% | 25% | – | – | 5% | ||||
| 32% | 61% | – | – | – | 7% | ||||
| 37% | – | – | – | 42% | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[g] |
Margin of error |
Bill Cassidy |
Clay Higgins |
John Fleming |
Garret Graves |
Eric Skrmetta |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R)[64][F] | August 12–14, 2024 | 1,062 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 27% | 36% | 12% | 23% | 2% | – |
| 36% | 44% | 16% | – | 4% | – | ||||
| – | 45% | 22% | 29% | 4% | – | ||||
| 41% | – | – | 59% | – | – | ||||
| 43% | 57% | – | – | – | – | ||||
| – | 56% | – | 44% | – | – |
Results
Letlow
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Fleming
- 40–50%
Cassidy
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 60–70%
Letlow
- 40–50%
Letlow
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
Fleming
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
Cassidy
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
Spencer
- 50–60%
- 90–100%
No data
Cassidy
- 0–10%
- 10–20%
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
0%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Julia Letlow | 179,903 | 44.8 | |
| Republican | John Fleming | 113,437 | 28.3 | |
| Republican | Bill Cassidy (incumbent) | 99,496 | 24.8 | |
| Republican | Mark Spencer | 8,338 | 2.1 | |
| Total votes | 401,174 | 100.0 | ||
Runoff
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 17, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| John Fleming (R) | $11,286,639 | $9,897,447 | $1,389,264 |
| Julia Letlow (R) | $4,398,631 | $2,785,529 | $1,613,102 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[66] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[g] |
Margin of error |
John Fleming |
Julia Letlow |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R)[67] | June 23–24, 2026 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| JMC Analytics (R)[68][E] | June 21–22, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| BDPC[69][B] | June 15–16, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 38% | 40% | 22% |
| Kaplan Strategies (R)[70] | May 24–26, 2026 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 37% | 52% | 10% |
| Harper Polling (R)[71] | May 18–19, 2026 | 457 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 35% | 52% | 13% |
| JMC Analytics (R)[72][E] | May 18–19, 2026 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Fleming and Letlow advance to runoff | ||||||
| Quantus Insights (R)[43] | May 6–7, 2026 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| BDPC[45] | April 28–30, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 31% | 42% | 27% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[48] | March 20–24, 2026 | 455 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 34% | 37% | 29% |
| BDPC[50] | March 16–17, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| BDPC[53] | February 21–23, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[54] | February 23–24, 2026 | 1,428 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| JMC Analytics (R)[55][E] | February 14–16, 2026 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 40% | 31% | 29% |
Hypothetical runoff polling
Bill Cassidy vs. Julia Letlow
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[g] |
Margin of error |
Bill Cassidy |
Julia Letlow |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R)[43] | May 6–7, 2026 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 23% | 63% | 14% |
| BDPC[45] | April 28–30, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 28% | 51% | 21% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[48] | March 20–24, 2026 | 455 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 24% | 54% | 22% |
| Harris, DeVille & Associates[49] | March 13–19, 2026 | 683 (LV) | – | 54% | 46% | – |
| BDPC[50] | March 16–17, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 24% | 50% | 26% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[51] | March 11–12, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 46% | 20% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[52][C] | March 7–10, 2026 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| BDPC[53] | February 21–23, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 34% | 42% | 24% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[54] | February 23–24, 2026 | 1,428 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 27% | 48% | 25% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[58][59][C] | January 20–22, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[64][F] | March 6–10, 2025 | 1,068 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 33% | 55% | 12% |
Bill Cassidy vs. John Fleming
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[g] |
Margin of error |
Bill Cassidy |
John Fleming |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R)[43] | May 6–7, 2026 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 25% | 55% | 20% |
| BDPC[45] | April 28–30, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 30% | 47% | 23% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[48] | March 20–24, 2026 | 455 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 29% | 49% | 22% |
| Harris, DeVille & Associates[49] | March 13–19, 2026 | 683 (LV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| BDPC[50] | March 16–17, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 26% | 49% | 25% |
| BDPC[53] | February 21–23, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 32% | 43% | 25% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[54] | February 23–24, 2026 | 1,428 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 23% | 57% | 20% |
| JMC Analytics & Polling[55][E] | February 14–16, 2026 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 28% | 48% | 24% |
| JMC Analytics & Polling[60][E] | January 12–14, 2026 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 26% | 44% | 30% |
| JMC Analytics & Polling[61][E] | October 15–17, 2025 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 29% | 40% | 31% |
| JMC Analytics & Polling[63][E] | February 24–26, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 27% | 40% | 33% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[64][F] | March 6–10, 2025 | 1,068 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 34% | 51% | 15% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[64][F] | August 12–14, 2024 | 1,062 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 52% | – |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Fleming | |||
| Republican | Julia Letlow | |||
| Total votes | 100.0 | |||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Advanced to runoff
- Gary Crockett, data scientist and political consultant[73]
- Jamie Davis, former Tensas Parish police juror[m] and candidate for Louisiana's 21st House of Representatives district in 2023[74]
Eliminated in primary
- Nick Albares, nonprofit executive and former aide to Governor John Bel Edwards[73]
Withdrawn
- Tracie Burke, political consultant[75]
- Jabarie Walker, former chief of staff for the Housing Authority of New Orleans[76]
Declined
- John Bel Edwards, former governor of Louisiana (2016–2024) and former minority leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives (2012–2015) from the 72nd district (2008–2015)[77] (endorsed Albares)[78]
- Mitch Landrieu, former senior advisor to the president for Infrastructure Investment & Jobs (2021–2024), former mayor of New Orleans (2010–2018), former lieutenant governor of Louisiana (2004–2010), former state representative (1988–2004), and brother of former U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu (1997–2015)[79]
- Jay Luneau, state senator from the 29th district (2016–present)[80]
Endorsements
Nick Albares (eliminated)
- U.S. representatives
- Charlie Melançon, former LA-03 (2005–2011)[78]
- Statewide officials
- John Bel Edwards, former governor of Louisiana (2016–2024)[78]
- State legislators
- Cynthia Willard-Lewis, former state senator from the 2nd district (2000–2002)[78]
- Labor unions
- Organizations
Jamie Davis
- Political parties
First round
Fundraising
Italics indicated a withdrew or declined candidate.
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jamie Davis (D) | $325,965 | $184,143 | $141,821 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[38] | |||
Results
Davis
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jamie Davis | 163,549 | 47.4 | |
| Democratic | Gary Crockett | 90,791 | 26.3 | |
| Democratic | Nicholas Albares | 90,498 | 26.2 | |
| Total votes | 344,838 | 100.0 | ||
Runoff
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 17, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Gary Crockett (D) | $350,000 | $32,737 | $655,124 |
| Jamie Davis (D) | $562,283 | $342,312 | $219,971 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[66] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gary Crockett | |||
| Democratic | Jamie Davis | |||
| Total votes | ||||
Third-party candidates
America Party
Filed paperwork
- Jamie "Kim" LaBranche, write-in candidate[82]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[83] | Solid R | April 23, 2026 |
| Race To The WH[84] | Likely R | May 22, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[85] | Solid R | May 19, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[86] | Safe R | March 4, 2026 |
| The Cook Political Report[87] | Solid R | April 13, 2026 |
| The Economist[88][n] | Likely R | May 22, 2026 |
Notes
- Republican Luther Strange, the then-incumbent senator from Alabama, was appointed by the governor for the empty seat vacated by Jeff Sessions. He was later defeated in the 2017 primary election to Roy Moore, who narrowly lost in the general election to Democrat Doug Jones.
- Republican Maurice J. Murphy Jr., the then-incumbent Senator from New Hampshire, was appointed by the governor for the empty seat after Styles Bridges's death. He later placed third in the 1962 primary election.[2]
- Endorsement received after the first round of primary voting took place.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Mark Spencer with 2.0%
- Mark Spencer with 2.5%
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Other candidates" with 6%
- Kathy Seiden with 0%
- "The remaining ballot tested candidates are getting a combined vote of 16%"
- "Includes five candidates, either announced or anticipated"
- Randall Arrington with 3%
- Equivalent to the position of county commissioner in other states
- The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored the Accountability Project PAC, which supports Letlow
- Poll sponsored by Cassidy's campaign
- Poll sponsored by the Pelican Institute
- Poll sponsored by Fleming's campaign
- Poll conducted on behalf of Clay Higgins