Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is a list of statewide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2024 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.

The Republican National Committee determined that candidates must qualify for the first primary debate by polling above 1% in three national polls since July 2023 – or in two national polls and one poll from two different early primary states (of which the polls must meet committee standards) – as well as attract donations from at least 40,000 individuals, with at least 200 from each of 20 states or territories.[1]

Each subsequent debate raised the polling threshold for qualification. For the second debate, candidates needed to poll above 3% in August or September in two national polls; otherwise, one national poll plus two state polls in two separate early primary states also qualify. The donor threshold was also raised for the second debate to 50,000 individuals.[2] For the third and fourth debates, the threshold was raised to above 4% in one national poll and one early primary state poll, as well as 70,000 unique donors.[3]

Individuals who have been included in statewide Republican primary polls but have either ruled out their candidacy or not expressed interest in running include Greg Abbott, Tucker Carlson, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, Chris Sununu, Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, and Glenn Youngkin.

Primary and caucus calendar

2024 Republican Party primaries and caucuses
Date[4] Delegates Primaries/caucuses
January 15 40 Iowa caucus
January 23 22 New Hampshire primary
February 6 - Nevada primary[a]
February 8 35 26
9		 Nevada caucus
Virgin Islands caucus
February 24 50 South Carolina primary
February 27 55 Michigan primary
March 2 86 32
54		 Idaho caucus
Missouri caucus
March 3 19 District of Columbia primary
March 4 29 North Dakota caucus
March 5
(Super Tuesday)		 874 49
28
9
40
169
37
20
40
39
75
43
58
162
40
17
48		 Alabama primary
Alaska primary
American Samoa caucus
Arkansas primary
California primary
Colorado primary
Maine primary
Massachusetts primary
Minnesota primary
North Carolina primary
Oklahoma primary
Tennessee primary
Texas primary
Utah primary
Vermont primary
Virginia primary
March 9 9 Guam caucus
March 10 32 9
23		 Northern Marianas caucus
Puerto Rico primary
March 12 160 59
19
39
43		 Georgia primary
Hawaii caucus
Mississippi primary
Washington primary
March 19 349 43
125
64
39
78		 Arizona primary
Florida primary
Illinois primary
Kansas primary
Ohio primary
March 23 46 Louisiana primary
April 2 195 28
16
91
19
41		 Connecticut primary
Delaware primary
New York primary
Rhode Island primary
Wisconsin primary
April 18–20 29 Wyoming caucus
April 23 67 Pennsylvania primary
May 7 58 Indiana primary
May 14 104 37
36
31		 Maryland primary
Nebraska primary
West Virginia primary
May 21 77 46
31		 Kentucky caucus
Oregon primary
June 4 131 31
49
22
29		 Montana primary
New Jersey primary
New Mexico primary
South Dakota primary

Aggregate polling summary

270toWin

States
polled		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[b]		 Margin
Iowa[5] January 11 – 15, 2024 January 15, 2024 15.7% 18.5% 52.5% 13.3%[c] Trump +34.0
Massachusetts[6] February 7–8, 2024 February 15, 2024 – 29.3% 63.0% 7.7% Trump +33.7
New Hampshire[7] January 22–23, 2024 January 23, 2024 7.3% 35.7% 56.5% 0.5% Trump +20.8
South Carolina[8] February 16–20, 2024 February 21, 2024 – 34.6% 61.6% 3.8% Trump +27.0
Wisconsin[9] February 7, 2024 February 15, 2024 – 22.5% 71.5% 6.0% Trump +49.0

FiveThirtyEight

States
polled		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[d]		 Margin
Arizona[10] through February 4, 2024 February 15, 2024 21.0% 76.9% 2.1% Trump +55.9
California[11] through February 4, 2024 February 10, 2024 18.9% 76.7% 4.4% Trump +57.8
Florida[12] through February 4, 2024 February 10, 2024 14.1% 84.2% 1.7% Trump +70.1
Georgia[13] through February 4, 2024 February 10, 2024 18.1% 79.0% 2.9% Trump +60.9
Iowa[14] through January 14, 2024 January 15, 2024 18.7% 52.7% 28.6%[e] Trump +34.0
Massachusetts[15] through March 3, 2024 March 4, 2024 29.3% 66.6% 4.1% Trump +37.3
Michigan[16] through February 24, 2024 February 25, 2024 21.8% 78.7% – Trump +56.9
New Hampshire[17] through January 22, 2024 January 23, 2024 36.3% 53.9% 9.8% Trump +17.6
North Carolina[18] through February 4, 2024 February 15, 2024 22.1% 74.7% 4.2% Trump +52.6
Ohio[19] through February 4, 2024 February 10, 2024 16.9% 81.9% 1.2% Trump +56.4
Pennsylvania[20] through February 4, 2024 February 10, 2024 17.8% 78.5% 3.7% Trump +51.3
South Carolina[21] through February 23, 2024 February 23, 2024 34.0% 61.6% 4.4% Trump +27.6
Tennessee[22] through March 3, 2024 March 5, 2024 15.3% 84.4% 0.3% Trump +69.1
Texas[23] through March 3, 2024 March 4, 2024 14.9% 79.4% 5.7% Trump +64.5
Virginia[24] through March 3, 2024 March 4, 2024 17.4% 66.2% 16.4% Trump +48.8
Wisconsin[25] through February 4, 2024 February 15, 2024 21.1% 70.9% 8.0% Trump +49.8

RealClearPolitics

States
polled		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[f]		 Margin
Iowa[26] January 5 – 14, 2024 January 15, 2024 15.7% 18.8% 52.5% 13.0%[g] Trump +33.7
Nevada[27] September 29, 2023 – January 8, 2024 January 19, 2024 10.5% – 69.0% 20.5%[h] Trump +58.5
New Hampshire[28] January 16–22, 2024 January 23, 2024 8.0% 36.5% 55.8% – Trump +19.3
South Carolina[29] January 23, 2024 – February 10, 2024 February 15, 2024 – 30.5% 64.0% 5.5% Trump +33.5


Iowa caucus

The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses were held on January 15, 2024.

Local regression graph of all polls conducted since November 2022.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[i]		 Margin
270toWin[30] January 11–15, 2024 January 15, 2024 15.7% 18.5% 0.8% 6.8% 52.5% 5.7%[j] Trump +34.0
FiveThirtyEight[31] Through January 14, 2024 January 15, 2024 15.8% 18.7% 0.7% 6.4% 52.7% 5.7% Trump +34.0
RealClearPolling[32] January 5–14, 2024 January 15, 2024 15.7% 18.8% 0.8% 6.8% 52.5% 5.4% Trump +33.7
Average 15.7% 18.7% 0.7% 6.7% 52.6% 5.6% Trump +33.9
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Burgum		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Larry
Elder		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group[33] Jan 12–14, 2024 1,092 (LV) ± 2.9% – – 19.3% – 18.5% 0.7% – 6.5% – 52.1% – 2.9%
Selzer & Co.[34][A] Jan 7–12, 2024 705 (LV) ± 3.7% – – 16% – 20% 1% – 8% – 48% 3%[l] 5%
Insider Advantage[35] January 11, 2024 850 (LV) ± 4.3% – – 17% – 17% 0% – 7% – 51% – 8%
Suffolk University[36] Jan 6–10, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 13% – 20% 0% – 6% – 54% – –
Civiqs[37] Jan 5–10, 2024 433 (LV) ± 6.4% – 4% 14% – 14% 0% – 8% – 55% 2% 3%
InsiderAdvantage[38] Dec 18–19, 2023 850 (LV) ± 4.36% – 4% 15% – 17% 0% – 8% – 50% – 6%
Fox Business[39] Dec 14–18, 2023 804 (LV) ± 3.5% – 3% 18% – 16% 0% – 7% – 52% 1% 2%
Emerson College[40] Dec 15–17, 2023 420 (LV) ± 4.7% – 4% 15% – 17% 0% – 8% – 50% – 6%
Iowa State University/Civiqs[41] Dec 8–13, 2023 438 (LV) ± 6.0% – 4% 17% – 15% 1% – 7% – 54% 0%[m] 2%
Selzer & Co.[42][A] Dec 2–7, 2023 502 (LV) ± 4.4% – 4% 19% – 16% 1% – 5% – 51% 2%[n] 3%
Trafalgar Group[43] Dec 1–4, 2023 1,091 (LV) ± 2.9% 2% 4% 22% – 19% 1% – 5% – 45% – 1%
Morning Consult[44] Nov 1–30, 2023 324 (LV) – 1% 2% 18% – 11% 0% – 13% 5% 50% – –
Iowa State University/Civiqs[45] Nov 10–15, 2023 432 (LV) ± 4.3% 1% 3% 18% – 12% 0% – 6% 2% 54% 0% 4%
Arc Insights[46][B] Nov 9–14, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 1% 4% 17% – 17% <1% – 5% – 44% 2%[o] 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[47][C] Nov 9–12, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 1% 5% 19% - 16% 0% - 4% 5% 43% 0% 7%
2% 5% 20% - 18% 0% - 5% - 44% 0% 7%
Trafalgar Group (R)[48] Nov 3–5, 2023 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 4% 5% 18% – 15% 0% – 5% 9% 44% 0%[p] 1%
Morning Consult[44] Oct 1–31, 2023 324 (LV) – 1% 2% 15% – 7% 0% 3% 9% 6% 57% – –
Public Opinion Strategies[49][D] Oct 24–26, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 2% 20% – 12% 1% 1% 4% 5% 46% – –
Selzer & Co.[50][A] Oct 22–26, 2023 404 (LV) ± 4.9% 3% 4% 16% – 16% 1% 2%[q] 4% 7% 43% 2%[r] 3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[47][C] Oct 17–19, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 3% 21% 0% 14% 0% 2% 4% 5% 42% 2%[s] 6%
Iowa State University/Civiqs[51] Oct 6–10, 2023 425 (LV) ± 6.1% 0% 2% 17% 0% 11% 0% 1% 5% 4% 55% 2%[t] 1%
Morning Consult[52] Sep 1–30, 2023 316 (LV) – 1% 5% 13% – 6% – 7% 9% 7% 53% – –
CBS News/YouGov[53] Sep 15–24, 2023 458 (LV) ± 6.1% 0% 1% 21% 0% 8% 1% 6% 5% 6% 51% 0%[u] –
Public Opinion Strategies[54][E] Sep 19–21, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 2% 21% – 9% 0% 2% 5% 6% 45% – 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[55][F] Sep 17–19, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 1% 5% 15% – 13% <1% 2% 5% 5% 45% <1%[v] 7%
Trafalgar Group (R)[56] Sep 14–18, 2023 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 4% 2% 16% 0% 8% 0% 4% 7% 7% 49% 1%[w] 2%
Fox Business[57] Sep 14–18, 2023 813 (LV) ± 3% 2% 3% 15% <0.5% 11% <0.5% 3% 7% 7% 46% 3%[x] 2%
Emerson College[58] Sep 7–9, 2023 357 (V) ± 5.1% 3% – 14% – 7% – 3% 7% 8% 49% 6% –
Civiqs[59] Sep 2–7, 2023 434 (LV) ± 5.8% 2% 3% 14% – 10% 0% 1% 9% 6% 51% 1%[y] –
Public Opinion Strategies[60] Sep 5–6, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 3% 22% – 6% 1% 2% 6% 5% 45% – –
Morning Consult[52] Aug 1–31, 2023 341 (LV) – 1% 4% 15% – 6% 0% 6% 8% 7% 52% 0%[z] 1%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[61] Aug 25–28, 2023 500 (LV) – 2% 3% 18% <1% 10% 1% 2% 7% 7% 44% <2%[aa] 5%
Public Opinion Strategies[62] August 24, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 1% 21% – 11% 1% 2% 7% 7% 41% – –
Public Opinion Strategies[62] Aug 19–21, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 3% 3% 14% – 3% <1% 2% 10% 3% 42% – –
HarrisX[63][G] Aug 17–21, 2023 1,120 (LV) –[ab] 2% 3% 11% 0% 4% 0% 3% 9% 8% 45% 3%[ac] 12%
–[ad] 2% 4% 21% 1% 6% 1% 8% 18% 15% – 4%[ae] 19%
Echelon Insights[64][H] Aug 15–17, 2023 800 (LV) ± 4.2% 2% 4% 17% – 2% <1% 3% 8% 3% 33% 3%[af] 14%
Selzer & Co.[65][A] Aug 13–17, 2023 406 (LV) ± 4.9% 2% 5% 19% – 6% – 6% 4% 9% 42% 1%[ag] 5%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[66] Aug 14–16, 2023 1,126 (LV) ± 2.9% 3% 4% 16% 1% 5% 1% 4% 6% 13% 42% 3%[ah] 3%
New York Times/Siena College[67] Jul 28 – August 1, 2023 432 (LV) ± 5.9% 1% <1% 20% <1% 4% <1% 3% 5% 9% 44% <2%[ai] 12%
– – 39% – – – – – – 55% – 4%
Manhattan Institute[68] Jul 2023 625 (LV) – 3% 4% 17% 0% 5% 1% 4% 6% 10% 42% 1%[aj] 7%
Morning Consult[52] July 1–31, 2023 350 (LV) – 1% 2% 19% – 4% 0% 4% 8% 5% 55% – 2%
National Research[69][I] Jul 23–24, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 4% 15% – 3% 0% 2% 5% 9% 42% – 13%
Fox Business[70] Jul 15–19, 2023 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 3% 3% 16% <1% 5% 1% 4% 6% 11% 46% 1%[ak] 4%
co/efficient[71][J] Jul 15–17, 2023 2,238 (LV) ± 2.6% – 3% 16% – 3% – 3% 5% 10% 46% – 10%
National Research[72][I] Jul 5–6, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 3% 21% – 2% 1% 3% 3% 7% 44% – 14%
Morning Consult[52] June 1–30, 2023 317 (LV) – 0% 1% 18% – 2% 1% 7% 3% 3% 64% 0%[al] 1%
McLaughlin & Associates[73][J] Jun 10–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 19% – – – 6% – 9% 51% – 15%
– – 33% – – – – – – 60% – 7%
National Research[74][I] Jun 5–7, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 2% 24% – 4% 0% 4% 1% 5% 39% – 21%
Victory Insights[75] Jun 3–6, 2023 450 (LV) ± 4.9% – 3% 21% – 5% – 5% 2% 6% 44% 3%[am] 12%
– – 32% – – – – – – 49% – 19%
WPA Intelligence[76][K] May 30 – June 1, 2023 655 (RV) – – – 29% – 6% <1% 4% 4% 7% 39% – 11%
– – 43% – – – – – – 45% – 12%
Morning Consult[52] May 1–31, 2023 300 (LV) – – – 17% – 5% 0% 8% 5% 1% 60% 4%[an] 0%
McLaughlin & Associates[77] May 23–25, 2023 400 (LV) – 0% 1% 24% 1% 4% 1% 5% 2% 7% 50% 3%[ao] 4%
– – 36% – – – – – – 54% – 11%
Emerson College[78] May 19–22, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 0% – 20% – 5% 1% 5% 2% 3% 62% 2%[ap] –
National Research[79][I] May 9–11, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 26% – 6% 1% 4% 3% 1% 44% – 11%
– – 33% – – – – – – 45% – 22%
McLaughlin & Associates[80][J] Apr 27–30, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 1% 20% 1% 5% 0% 7% 2% 1% 54% 5%[aq] 5%
– – 22% – – – – – – 57% – –
Morning Consult[52] Apr 1–30, 2023 294 (LV) – – – 20% – 4% 0% 7% 4% 0% 60% 3%[ar] 2%
Victory Insights[81] Apr 10–13, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.8% – – 24% – 14% 4% – 3% – 54% 1%[as] –
– – 59% – 24% 5% – 8% – – 4%[at] –
– – 41% – – – – – – 59% – –
Cygnal[82] Apr 3–4, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% – – 30% – 5% 1% 2% 2% 1% 37% 3%[au] 19%
J.L. Partners[83] Mar 25 – April 4, 2023 628 (LV) ± 3.9% – – 26% – 5% – 3% 1% – 41% 10%[av] 14%
– – 39% – – – – – – 47% – 15%
Morning Consult[52] Mar 1–31, 2023 329 (LV) – – – 27% – 5% – 7% – 0% 57% 2%[aw] 2%
Morning Consult[52] Feb 1–28, 2023 281 (LV) – – – 25% – 6% – 9% 0% 0% 52% 8%[ax] 0%
Morning Consult[52] Jan 1–31, 2023 367 (LV) – – – 27% – 5% – 9% – 1% 51% 5%[ay] 2%
Morning Consult[52] Dec 1–31, 2022 227 (LV) – – – 35% – 2% – 11% – 1% 44% 8%[az] 0%
WPA Intelligence[84][L] Nov 11–13, 2022 508 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 48% – – – – – – 37% – 16%
WPA Intelligence[84][L] Aug 7–10, 2022 508 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 37% – – – – – – 52% – 12%
Neighborhood Research and Media[85][M] Jun 22 – July 1, 2022 546 (LV) ± 4.2% – – 17% – 2% – 2% – – 38% 4%[ba] –
Victory Insights[86] Mar 5–8, 2021 630 (RV) – – – 4% – 6% – 8% – – 61% 13%[bb] –
– – 20% – 10% – 19% – – – 33%[bc] –

New Hampshire primary

The 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary was held on January 23, 2024.

Local regression graph of all polls conducted since November 2022.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[bd]		 Margin
270 to Win[87] January 22–23, 2024 January 23, 2024 35.7% 56.5% 7.8%[be] Trump +20.8
FiveThirtyEight[88] Through January 22, 2024 January 23, 2024 36.3% 53.9% 9.8% Trump +17.6
RealClearPolling[89] January 16–22, 2024 January 23, 2024 36.5% 55.8% 7.7% Trump +19.3
Average 36.2% 55.4% 8.4% Trump +19.2
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Burgum		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBTS[90] Jan 21–22, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – – 38% – – – – 60% 1% 1%
Insider Advantage[91] January 21, 2024 850 (LV) ±4.32% – – – 35% – – – – 62% – 3%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBTS[92] Jan 20–21, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – – 38% – – – – 57% 2% 2%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBTS[93] Jan 19–20, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 6% 36% – – – – 55% 0.6% 2.4%
American Research Group[94] Jan 18–20, 2024 600 (LV) ±4.0% – – 6% 44% – – – – 46% – –
Emerson College/WHDH[95] Jan 18–20, 2024 673 (RV) ±3.7% – – 8% 35% 50% 7%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBTS[96] Jan 17–18, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 6% 35% – – – – 52% – 4%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBTS[97] Jan 16–17, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 6% 36% – – – – 50% 1% 4%
Saint Anselm College[98] January 16, 2024 1,398 (LV) ± 2.6% – – 6% 38% – – – – 52% – 4%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBTS[99] Jan 15–16, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 5% 34% – – – – 50% – 11%
American Research Group[100] Jan 12–15, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – – 4% 40% 1% – 4% – 40% 2% 9%
Saint Anselm College[101] Jan 8–9, 2024 1,194 (LV) ± 2.8% – 9% 6% 31% – – 6% – 45% – 3%
University of New Hampshire Survey/CNN[102] Jan 4–8, 2024 919 (LV) ± 3.2% – 12% 5% 32% 0% – 8% – 39% 0% 5%
American Research Group[103] December 27, 2023 – January 4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 10% 5% 33% 1% – 4% – 37% 1% 9%
American Research Group[104] Dec 14–20, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 13% 6% 29% 1% – 5% – 33% 1% 12%
Saint Anselm College[105] Dec 18–19, 2023 1,072 (LV) ± 3.0% – 12% 6% 30% 0% – 5% – 44% – 3%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[106] Dec 7–18, 2023 450 (LV) ± 5.4% – 6% 10% 22% 1% – 4% – 52% 0%[bf] 5%
CBS News/YouGov[107] Dec 8–15, 2023 855 (LV) ± 4.1% – 10% 11% 29% 1% – 5% – 44% – –
Trafalgar Group[108] Dec 9–11, 2023 1,098 (LV) ± 2.9% – 14% 11% 18% 0% – 10% – 45% – 1%
Americans for Prosperity[109] Nov 19–21, 2023 800 (LV) – – – 9% 25% – – – – 40% 26% –
University of New Hampshire Survey Center/CNN[110] Nov 10–14, 2023 994 (LV) ± 3.1% 2% 14% 9% 20% 0% – 8% – 42% 3% 2%
Washington Post/Monmouth University[111] Nov 9–14, 2023 606 (LV) ± 4.5% 2% 11% 7% 18% 1% – 8% 3% 46% 0% 4%
Emerson College/WHDH[112] Nov 10–13, 2023 465 (RV) ± 3.3% 1.5% 8.8% 7.2% 17.6% 0.3% – 4.6% 2.2% 48.5% – 9.3%
USA TODAY/Boston Globe/Suffolk University[113] Sep 28 – October 2, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 1% 6% 10% 19% – 1% 4% 4% 49% – –
CBS News/YouGov[114] Sep 15–24, 2023 502 (LV) ± 5.4% 2% 8% 13% 11% 1% 2% 8% 5% 50% 0%[bg] –
Saint Anselm College[115] Sep 19–20, 2023 931 (LV) ± 3.2% 1% 10% 11% 15% 1% 1% 6% 3% 45% 0%[bh] 6%
Insider Advantage[116] September 20, 2023 850 (LV) ± 3.36% 4% 10% 8% 14% 1% 1% 5% 5% 42% 1%[bi] 9%
University of New Hampshire[117] Sep 14–18, 2023 1,006 (LV) ± 3.4% 1% 11% 10% 12% 0% 2% 13% 6% 39% 1%[bj] 6%
NMB Research[118] Aug 25–31, 2023 800 (LV) – 1% 8% 10% 10% 1% 4% 8% 5% 47% <3%[bk] 4%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[119] Aug 25–28, 2023 500 (LV) – 2% 5% 11% 9% <1% 1% 9% 5% 48% <3%[bl] 9%
Echelon Insights[120][N] Aug 15–17, 2023 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 14% 9% 3% 1% 3% 11% 7% 34% 3%[bm] 12%
Emerson College[121] Aug 9–11, 2023 498 (RV) ± 4.9% 4% 9% 8% 4% – 1% 3% 6% 49% 3%[bn] 13%
co/efficient[122] Aug 5–7, 2023 862 (LV) ± 3.3% 4% 9% 9% 7% 1% 3% 5% 5% 43% 3%[bo] 13%
Manhattan Institute[123] July 2023 603 (LV) – 3% 11% 13% 7% 1% 4% 8% 7% 34% 3%[bp] 8%
National Research[124][O] Jul 25–26, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 5% 8% 11% 3% 1% 2% 6% 8% 41% – 15%
University of New Hampshire[125] Jul 13–17, 2023 898 (LV) ± 3.3% 6% 6% 23% 5% 0% 1% 5% 8% 37% 1%[bq] 8%
National Research[126][O] Jul 10–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 7% 15% 5% 1% 1% 4% 6% 39% – 17%
American Pulse[127] Jul 5–11, 2023 895 ± 3.2% 3% 10% 11% 3% – 5% 5% 7% 48% – 8%[br]
Saint Anselm College[128] Jun 21–23, 2023 494 (LV) ± 4.4% 2% 6% 19% 5% 2% 2% 2% 4% 47% 0%[bs] 10%
New Hampshire Journal/co-efficient[129] Jun 14–16, 2023 904 (LV) ± 3.3% – 9% 13% 3% – 5% 3% 3% 47% 5% 10%
– – 23% – – – – – 49% – 28%
National Research[130][O] Jun 12–14, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 7% 12% 5% 2% 3% 3% 7% 44% 18%[bt] –
National Research[131][O] May 15–17, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 18% 3% 1% 1% 6% 1% 39% 32%[bu] –
University of New Hampshire[132] Apr 13–17, 2023 818 (LV) ± 3.4% – 1% 22% 3% 0% 3% 3% 2% 42% 20%[bv] 4%
J.L Partners[133] Apr 2–11, 2023 623 (LV) ± 3.9% – 2% 18% 4% – 2% 1% 1% 51% 19%[bw] 6%
– – 33% – – – – – 53% – 13%
Saint Anselm College[134] Mar 28–30, 2023 1,320 (RV) ± 4.0% – 1% 29% 4% – 1% 3% 1% 42% 19%[bx] –
Emerson College[135] Mar 3–5, 2023 384 (RV) ± 5.0% – – 17% 6% – 4% – 1% 58% 14%[by] –
co/efficient[136] Jan 25–26, 2023 506 (LV) ± 4.35% – – – – – – – – 43% 42% 15%
– – 26% 4% – 3% – – 37% 13%[bz] 18%
University of New Hampshire[137] Jan 19–23, 2023 349 (LV) ± 5.2% – – 42% 8% – 1% – 0% 30% 16%[ca] 3%
Neighborhood Research and Media[138] Dec 5–13, 2022 434 (LV) ± 4.7% – – 33% – – 3% – – 32% 13% 19%
WPA Intelligence[139][L] Nov 11–13, 2022 401 (LV) ± 4.9% – – 52% – – – – – 37% – 11%
November 8, 2022 2022 midterm elections
Saint Anselm College[140] Aug 9–11, 2022 820 (RV) ± 3.4% – – 29% 3% – 3% – 1% 50% 4%[cb] 8%
WPA Intelligence[139][L] Aug 7–10, 2022 401 (LV) ± 4.9% – – 45% – – – – – 45% – 10%
Neighborhood Research and Media[141][P] Jul 5–8, 2022 475 (RV) ± 4.5% – – 22% 1% – 1% – – 41% 3%[cc] 32%
University of New Hampshire[142] Jun 16–20, 2022 318 (LV) ± 5.5% – – 39% 6% – 9% – 0% 37% 6%[cd] 3%
University of New Hampshire[143] Oct 14–18, 2021 441 (LV) ± 4.7% – – 18% 6% – 4% – – 43% 14%[ce] 10%
University of New Hampshire[144] Jul 15–19, 2021 770 (LV) ± 3.5% – – 19% 6% – 5% – – 43% 13%[cf] 10%
Saint Anselm College[145][Q] May 7–10, 2021 635 (RV) ± 3.9% – – 20% 7% – 4% – 0% 52% 7%[cg] 10%
Victory Insights[146] Mar 5–11, 2021 400 (RV) – – – 5% 3% – 6% – – 52% 14%[ch] –
– – 21% 7% – 18% – – – 29%[ci] –
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Praecones Analytica[147] Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 624 (RV) ± 4.0% – – – 7% – 6% – 2% 57% 19%[cj] 10%
– – – 12% – 25% – 3% – 46%[ck] 14%

Nevada primary and caucus

The 2024 Nevada Republican presidential primary and caucus was held on February 6 and February 8, 2024, respectively.

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[cl]		 Margin
RealClearPolling[148] September 29, 2023 – January 8, 2024 January 21, 2024 69.0% 31.0%[cm] Trump +58.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates[149][R] Dec 11–13, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 5% 15% – – – 2% – 75% 0%[cn] 3%
SSRS/CNN[150] Sep 29 – October 6, 2023 650 (LV) ± 5.3% 2% 13% 6% – 3% 4% 2% 65% 4%[co] 2%
National Research[151][S] Jun 26–28, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 22% 3% 0% 2% 2% 2% 52% – 14%[cp]
National Research[152][S] May 30 – June 1, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 21% 3% 0% 1% 2% 2% 53% 0%[cq] 17%
Vote TXT[153] May 15–19, 2023 112 (RV) ± 4.8% – 21% 5% – 2% 3% – 51% 7% 11%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[154] Oct 24–27, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% – 34% 1% – 7% – – 41% 7%[cr] 10%

South Carolina primary

The 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary was held on February 24, 2024. Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[cs]		 Margin
270toWin[155] February 16–20, 2024 February 21, 2024 34.6% 61.6% 3.8% Trump +27.0
FiveThirtyEight[156] through February 23, 2024 February 24, 2024 34.0% 61.6% 4.4% Trump +27.6
RealClearPolling[157] February 14, 2024 – February 23, 2024 February 23, 2024 37.5% 60.8% 1.7% Trump +23.3
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Burgum		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group[158] Feb 21–23, 2024 1093 (LV) ± 2.9% – – – 37.5% – – – – 58.9% – 3.6%[ct]
Suffolk University/USA Today[159] Feb 15–18, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – – 35% – – – – 63% – 2%[cu]
Emerson College/The Hill[160] Feb 15–17, 2024 1197 (LV) ± 2.8% – – – 35.4% – – – – 57.9% – 6.7%
Insider Advantage[161] Feb 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.9% – – – 38% – – – – 60% 1% 1%
Trafalgar Group[162] Feb 13–15, 2024 1,089 (LV) ± 2.9% – – – 33.6% – – – – 63.3% – 3%
The Citadel[163] Feb 5–11, 2024 505 (LV) ± 5.7% – – – 31% – – – – 64% 3% 2%
Winthrop University[164] Feb 2–10, 2024 749 (LV) ± 3.6% – – – 28.7% – – – – 64.9% 3.3% 2%
Washington Post/Monmouth University[165] Jan 26–30, 2024 815 (LV) ± 3.9% – – – 32% – – – – 58% 2% 8%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[166] Jan 28–29, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – – – 31% – – – – 66% – 4%
The Tyson Group/The American Promise[167] Jan 24–26, 2024 543 (LV) ± 4.4% – – – 31% – – – – 58% – 11%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[166] Jan 17–18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – – – 28% – – – – 68% – 4%
Emerson College[168] Jan 2–3, 2024 584 (LV) ± 4.0% – 4.8% 6.6% 25.1% 0.2% – 3.1% – 54.4% – 1.9%
Trafalgar Group[169] Dec 6–8, 2023 1,087 (LV) ± 2.9% – 5.8% 14.4% 22.8% 0.3% – 6.1% – 48.7% – 1.9%
Morning Consult[170] Nov 1–30, 2023 856 (LV) – 0% 2% 13% 19% – – 3% 7% 57% – –
Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research[171] Nov 4–12, 2023 780 (RV) ± 3.51% 0.3% 1.6% 12.5% 18.7% 0.4% – 3.4% 10.6% 47.6% 2.1%[cv] 2.7%
Morning Consult[170] Oct 1–31, 2023 927 (LV) – 0% 1% 11% 15% 0% 3% 6% 7% 58% – –
CNN/SSRS[172] Oct 18–25, 2023 738 (LV) ± 4.8% 0% 2% 11% 22% 0%[cw] 2% 1% 6% 53% 0%[cx] 1%
Morning Consult[170] Sep 1–30, 2023 854 (LV) – – 1% 10% 13% 0% 3% 6% 7% 59% 0%[cy] 1%
Fox Business[173] Sep 14–18, 2023 809 (LV) ± 3.5% <0.5% 4% 10% 18% 1% 4% 5% 9% 46% 1%[cz] 3%
Washington Post/Monmouth University[174] Sep 6–11, 2023 506 (LV) ± 4.6% 0% 5% 9% 18% 2% 3% 3% 10% 46% 1%[da] 4%
Morning Consult[170] Aug 1–31, 2023 910 (LV) – – 1% 14% 11% 0% 4% 8% 7% 55% 0%[cy] –
Trafalgar Group (R)[175] Aug 17–19, 2023 1,054 (LV) ± 2.9% 0% 2% 14% 8% 0% 2% 6% 14% 48% 0%[db] 1%
Morning Consult[170] July 1–31, 2023 907 (LV) – 0% 1% 15% 12% 1% 3% 6% 7% 54% 0%[dc] 1%
Fox Business[176] Jul 15–19, 2023 809 (LV) ± 3.5% <0.5% 2% 13% 14% 1% 4% 3% 10% 48% –[dd] 4%
Morning Consult[170] June 1–30, 2023 907 (LV) – 0% 1% 20% 12% 0% 4% 3% 10% 48% 1%[de] 1%
National Public Affairs[177] Jun 20–21, 2023 809 (LV) – 1% 5% 18% 12% 2% 2% 2% 10% 41% – 6%
Morning Consult[170] May 1–31, 2023 875 (LV) – – – 19% 13% 0% 4% 3% 7% 52% 1%[df] 1%
National Research[178][T] May 24–25, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.38% – – 18% 10% 1% 1% 1% 12% 43% 1%[dg] 13%
National Public Affairs[179] May 15–17, 2023 590 (LV) ± 4.0% – – 23% 15% 3% 2% 2% 10% 38% – 8%
Morning Consult[170] Apr 1–30, 2023 810 (LV) – – – 17% 17% 0% 5% 1% 4% 52% 3%[dh] 1%
National Public Affairs[180] Apr 11–14, 2023 588 (LV) ± 4.2% – – 21% 19% 1% 2% 1% 7% 43% 1%[di] 6%
Winthrop University[181] Mar 25 – April 1, 2023 485 (RV) ± 4.6% – – 20% 18% 0% 5% – 7% 41% 5%[dj] 4%
Morning Consult[170] Mar 1–31, 2023 806 (LV) – – – 22% 15% – 5% 0% 4% 49% 3%[dk] 2%
Morning Consult[170] Feb 1–28, 2023 689 (LV) – – – 24% 18% – 5% – 7% 43% 4%[dl] –
Neighbourhood Research and Media[182][M] Feb 7–14, 2023 300 (LV) ± 5.9% – – 22% 16% – 2% – 2% 35% – 23%
Morning Consult[170] Jan 1–31, 2023 974 (LV) – – – 31% 14% – 2% – 5% 45% 2%[dm] 1%
Trafalgar Group[183] Jan 24–26, 2023 1,078 (LV) ± 2.9% – – – 33% – 6% – – 52% 9%[dn] –
– – – 21% – 3% – 23% 48% 5%[do] –
– – 29% 22% – 4% – – 43% 2%[dp] –
– – 28% 12% – 2% – 14% 43% 1%[dq] –
Moore Information[184] Jan 18–24, 2023 450 (LV) ± 5.0% – – 31% 12% – 4% – 5% 41% – 7%
– – – 29% – – – – 62% – 9%
– – 42% – – – – – 49% – 15%
Spry Strategies[185] Jan 17–19, 2023 386 (LV) – – – 52% – – – – – 33% – 15%
Morning Consult[170] Dec 1–31, 2022 530 (LV) – – – 28% 13% – 4% – 5% 44% 6%[dr] –
Winthrop University[186] Oct 22 – November 5, 2022 1,298 (A) ± 2.8% – – – 37% – – – – 45% – 19%
Echelon Insights[187] Aug 31 – September 7, 2022 294 (LV) ± 5.1% – – 33% – – – – – 58% – 9%
Trafalgar Group[188] Mar 25–29, 2021 1,014 (LV) ± 3.0% – – – – – – – – 64% 11%[ds] 25%[dt]

Michigan primary and caucus

The 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary and caucus were held on February 27 and March 2, 2024, respectively.

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[du]		 Margin
FiveThirtyEight[189] through February 24, 2024 February 27, 2024 21.8% 78.7% - Trump +56.9
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Burgum		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Will
Hurd		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Perry
Johnson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Emerson College/The Hill[190] Feb 20–24, 2024 486 (LV) ±3% – – – 20.3% – – – – – – 69.2% – 10.5%
Michigan Information and Research Service (MIRS)[191] Jan 4–10, 2024 600 (LV) ±4% 3% 8% 9% 19% – – – – 2% – 53% – 6%
CNN/SSRS[192] Nov 30 – December 7, 2023 618 (LV) ± 3.4% 1% 6% 15% 13% – 1% – – 4% – 58% 1% 3%
Morning Consult[193] Nov 1–30, 2023 1,348 (LV) – 0% 3% 13% 10% – 0% – – 8% 1% 65% – –
Morning Consult[193] Oct 1–31, 2023 1,342 (LV) – 1% 3% 10% 6% 0% 0% – 7% 9% 1% 63% – –
Public Policy Polling (D)[194] Oct 9–10, 2023 430 (LV) ± 4.7% 2% 3% 13% 6% – 0% – 2% 3% 0% 63% – 8%
Morning Consult[193] Sep 1–30, 2023 1,238 (LV) – 0% 4% 12% 6% 0% 0% – 7% 10% 1% 58% – 2%
Susquehanna University[195] Sep 7–12, 2023 219 (LV) – 0% 0% 18% 3% – 0% – 5% 5% 0% 65% – –
Morning Consult[193] Aug 1–31, 2023 1,299 (LV) – 0% 4% 15% 3% 0% 1% – 8% 8% 2% 59% 0%[dv] –
Emerson College[196] Aug 1–2, 2023 498 (RV) ± 4.3% 1% 2% 13% 3% 0% 1% 0% 7% 4% 2% 61% 1% 6%
Morning Consult[193] July 1–31, 2023 1,350 (LV) – – 3% 18% 3% 0% 1% – 10% 7% 2% 55% – 1%
Mitchell Research[197][U] Jul 11–13, 2023 639 (LV) ± 4.0% – – 13% 1% – – 0% 3% – 2% 69% – 11%
Morning Consult[193] June 1–30, 2023 1,242 (LV) – 1% 2% 25% 3% 0% 2% – 9% 3% 3% 52% 1%[dw] –
Morning Consult[193] May 1–31, 2023 1,354 (LV) – – – 25% 2% – 1% – 9% 5% 1% 53% 5%[dx] 1%
Morning Consult[193] Apr 1–30, 2023 1,356 (LV) – – – 26% 3% – 0% – 10% 2% 1% 53% 5%[dy] –
Morning Consult[193] Mar 1–31, 2023 1,378 (LV) – – – 30% 3% – – – 10% 0% 1% 51% 5%[dz] –
Morning Consult[193] Feb 1–28, 2023 1,232 (LV) – – – 32% 4% – – – 10% 0% 1% 46% 6%[ea] 1%
Echelon Insights[198] Feb 13–16, 2023 400 (V) ± 6.0% – – 47% – – – – – – – 42% 11% –
Morning Consult[193] Jan 1–31, 2023 1,709 (LV) – – – 33% 1% – – – 10% – 0% 48% 5%[eb] 3%
Morning Consult[193] Dec 1–31, 2022 909 (LV) – – – 32% 1% – – – 10% – 0% 50% 7%[ec] –
Glengariff Group[199] Jul 13–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 42% – – – – – – – 45% 13% –

Missouri caucus

The 2024 Missouri Republican presidential caucuses were held on March 2, 2024.

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Remington Research[200] Feb 8–9, 2023 820 (LV) – 35% 8% – 38% – –
45% – – 38% – –
Remington Research[201] Nov 15–16, 2022 940 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% – – 38% – 15%
38% – – 36% 7%[ed] 19%
Remington Research[202] Jul 27–28, 2022 818 (LV) ± 3.4% 18% – – 42% 23%[ee] 17%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Remington Research[203] Dec 2–3, 2020 840 (RV) ± 3.4% – – 32% – 42%[ef] 26%

Alabama primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Cygnal/Alabama Daily News[204] Jan 29–30, 2024 515 (LV) ± 4.31% – 16% 76% – 8%
Public Opinion Strategies[205][V] Jan 15–17, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 50% – 31% – 19%
53% – 35% – 12%
Cygnal/Alabama Daily News[206] Oct 27–29, 2022 616 (LV) ± 3.94% 36% 1% 50% 5% 8%

Arkansas primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Ron
DeSantis		 Donald
Trump		 Undecided
Echelon Insights[207] Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 184 (LV) ± 7.7% 29% 58% 13%

California primary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[eg]		 Margin
FiveThirtyEight[208] through February 4, 2024 February 10, 2024 19.0% 73.1% 7.9% Trump +54.1
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Larry
Elder		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Morning Consult[209] Nov 1–30, 2023 2,347 (LV) – 2% 10% – 8% 0% – 7% – 71% 1%[eh] –
Public Policy Institute of California[210] Nov 9–16, 2023 276 (LV) – 5% 12% – 13% 0% – 2% 2% 56% 1%[ei] 9%
Emerson College[211] Nov 11–14, 2023 331 (LV) – 4% 11% - 5% 2% – 3% - 63% 1%[ej] 11%
UC Berkeley IGS[212] Oct 24–30, 2023 1,234 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 12% 1% 9% – – 3% 1% 57% 5% 11%
Public Policy Institute of California[213] Oct 3–19, 2023 316 (LV) – 4% 12% 0% 9% 0% 6% 5% 3% 53% 5%[ek] 1%
Data Viewpoint[214] October 1, 2023 533 (RV) ± 4.3% 5.5% 17.5% – 15.2% <1% 3.0% 3.6% 2.9% 49.8% 1.7%[el] –
California's Choice[215] Aug 27–29, 2023 750 (LV) – 4.8% 21.6% – 15.6% 0.5% 4.4% 9.6% 0.8% 43.4% 2.6% –
UC Berkeley IGS[216] Aug 24–29, 2023 1,175 (LV) ± 4.0% 3% 16% 1% 7% – 3% 4% 2% 55% – 9%
Public Policy Institute of California[217] Jun 7–29, 2023 267 (LV) – 3% 24% – 3% – 6% 1% 5% 50% 7%[em] 1%
Emerson College[218] Jun 4–7, 2023 329 (LV) ± 2.9% 2% 19% – 6% – 10% 2% 4% 53% 7%[en] –
Public Policy Institute of California[219] May 17–24, 2023 295 (LV) ± 7% 1% 21% – 3% – 10% 1% 2% 50% 11%[eo] 2%
UC Berkeley IGS[220] May 17–22, 2023 1,835 (RV) ± 3.5% 1% 26% 0% 3% 0% 4% 2% 1% 44% 6%[ep] 13%
UC Berkeley IGS[221] Feb 14–20, 2023 1,755 (RV) ± 3.5% – 37% – 7% – 3% – 1% 29% 8%[eq] 10%
– 50% – – – – – – 33% 6%[er] 11%
UC Berkeley IGS[222] Aug 9–15, 2022 9,254 (RV) ± 3.0% 0% 27% – 3% – 7% – 0% 38% 10%[es] 14%
0% 53% – 4% – 9% – 1% – 15%[et] 17%

Maine caucus

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Liz
Cheney		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Mike
Pompeo		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Chris
Sununu		 Donald
Trump
Digital Research Inc.[223] Mar 22 – April 22, 2023 192 (LV) – 10% 27% 3% 5% 1% 1% 1% 59%
Hypothetical polling

Maine's 2nd congressional district

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Other Undecided
January 3, 2023 Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
SurveyUSA[224] Jun 30 – July 6, 2020 604 (LV) ± 4.1% 12% 30% 36%[eu] 21%

Massachusetts primary

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[ev]		 Margin
270ToWin[225] February 7–8, 2024 February 15, 2024 29.3% 63.0% 7.7% Trump +33.7
FiveThirtyEight[226] through February 6, 2024 March 5, 2024 29.3% 66.6% 4.1% Trump +37.3
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[ew]		 Margin
of error		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
YouGov[227][W] Oct 13–20, 2023 107 (V) ± 5.1% 15% 12% 3% 6% 54% 10%[ex] –
UMass-Amherst[228] Mar 28 – Apr 5, 2023 154 (RV) – 18% 4% 10% 1% 59% 8%[ey] –
32% – – – 68% – –
Opinion Diagnostics[229] Mar 31 – Apr 1, 2023 475 (LV) ± 4.5% 21% 9% 3% – 45% 3% 19%
32% – – – 46% – 22%
UMass-Amherst[230] Jun 15–21, 2022 237 (RV) – 24% 6% 6% 1% 51% 11%[ez] –

North Carolina primary

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[fa]		 Margin
270ToWin[231] February 5–7, 2024 February 15, 2024 21.5% 74.5% 4.0% Trump +53.0
FiveThirtyEight[232] through February 4, 2024 February 15, 2024 22.1% 74.7% 4.2% Trump +52.6
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Capen Analytics[233] Feb 21, 2024 12,580 (LV) ± 5.0% – – 36% – – – – 64% – –
Public Policy Polling (D)[234] Jan 5–6, 2024 619 (LV) ± 3.9% 3% 9% 12% 0% – 4% – 66% 0%[fb] 5%
ECU Center for Survey Research[235] Nov 29 – Dec 1, 2023 445 (LV) ± 5.4% 2% 10% 13% 1% – 3% – 63% – 8%
Morning Consult[236] Nov 1–30, 2023 1,342 (LV) – 4% 14% 9% 1% – 5% 1% 67% 0%[fc] –
Meredith College[237] Nov 1–5, 2023 335 (LV) ± 3.5% 6% 14% 9% 0% - 8% 3% 51% 2%[fd] 6%
Morning Consult[236] Oct 1–31, 2023 1,337 (LV) – 3% 14% 8% 0% 4% 6% 2% 61% 0%[fe] 2%
Morning Consult[236] Sep 1–30, 2023 1,366 (LV) – 3% 15% 8% 0% 5% 7% 2% 58% 0%[ff] 2%
Meredith College[237] Sep 16–19, 2023 350 (RV) ± 3.5% 3% 13% 6% 0% 5% 8% 3% 51% 6%[fg] 7%
Morning Consult[236] Aug 1–31, 2023 1,491 (LV) – 3% 15% 6% 1% 5% 10% 2% 57% 0%[fh] 1%
Morning Consult[236] July 1–31, 2023 1,535 (LV) – 3% 15% 5% 0% 6% 9% 3% 58% 0%[fi] 1%
Morning Consult[236] June 1–30, 2023 1,454 (LV) – 2% 20% 5% 1% 7% 4% 3% 56% 1%[fj] 1%
Opinion Diagnostics[238] Jun 5–7, 2023 408 (LV) ± 4.8% 2% 22% 7% 1% 6% 1% 4% 44% 2%[fk] 11%
– 34% – – – – – 50% – 15%
Morning Consult[236] May 1–31, 2023 1,453 (LV) – – 20% 6% 1% 6% 3% 2% 59% 3%[fl] 1%
Morning Consult[236] Apr 1–30, 2023 1,299 (LV) – – 23% 6% 0% 5% 1% 1% 58% 4%[fm] 2%
SurveyUSA[239][X] Apr 25–29, 2023 707 (LV) ± 4.4% – 22% 5% 1% 8% 2% 1% 55% 0%[fn] 5%
Morning Consult[236] Mar 1–31, 2023 1,31 (LV) – – 27% 9% – 8% 0% 1% 51% 2%[fo] 2%
Morning Consult[236] Feb 1–28, 2023 1,185 (LV) – – 31% 7% – 6% – 1% 51% 3%[fp] 1%
Morning Consult[236] Jan 1–31, 2023 1,703 (LV) – – 30% 4% – 7% – 1% 52% 5%[fq] 1%
Differentiators Data[240] Jan 9–12, 2023 213 (LV) ± 4.5% – 47% 4% – 2% – – 35% 3%[fr] –
Morning Consult[236] Dec 1–31, 2022 905 (LV) – – 31% 4% – 7% – 1% 50% 5%[fs] 2%
Differentiators Data[241] Dec 8–11, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.5% – 56% – – – – – 35% – –
John Bolton Super PAC[242] Jul 22–24, 2022 149 (LV) – 1% 27% – – 6% – – 37% 12%[ft] 16%
Atlantic Polling Strategies[243][Y] Apr 25–28, 2022 534 (LV) ± 4.9% – 23% 5% – 4% – 4% 52% 2%[fu] 10%
Spry Strategies[244] Apr 6–10, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 19% 8% – 6% – 1% 45% 9%[fv] 12%
– 32% 8% – 9% – 2% – 18%[fw] 31%
Cygnal (R)[245] Apr 1–3, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 26% 8% – 6% – – 45% 2%[fx] 13%
Cygnal (R)[246] Jan 7–9, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 19% 8% – 5% – 2% 47% 3%[fy] 16%
Jan 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
BUSR/UNLV Lee Business School[247] Nov 30 – Dec 2, 2020 221 (RV) ± 7.0% – – 6% – – – – 76% 13%[fz] 6%
– – 9% – 48% – – – 25%[ga] 18%

Oklahoma primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Morning Consult[248] Nov 1–30, 2023 637(LV) – 3% 12% 6% 0% – 7% 1% 69% 0%[gb] 2%
Morning Consult[248] Oct 1–31, 2023 625(LV) – 5% 7% 4% 0% 7% 6% 1% 68% 0%[gc] 2%
Morning Consult[248] Sep 1–30, 2023 566(LV) – 4% 8% 3% 0% 11% 7% 1% 63% 0%[gd] 2%
Morning Consult[248] Aug 1–31, 2023 602(LV) – 3% 11% 3% 0% 6% 10% 2% 63% 1%[ge] 1%
Morning Consult[248] July 1–31, 2023 629(LV) – 2% 13% 2% 1% 7% 10% 2% 63% 0%[gf] –
Morning Consult[248] June 1–30, 2023 559(LV) – 3% 14% 3% 0% 7% 4% 2% 66% 1%[gg] –
Morning Consult[248] May 1–31, 2023 627(LV) – – 16% 2% 1% 7% 5% 1% 64% 3%[gh] 1%
Morning Consult[248] Apr 1–30, 2023 560(LV) – – 14% 2% – 8% 2% 2% 67% 4%[gi] 1%
C.H.S. & Associates[249] Mar 27–31, 2023 300 (RV) ± 4.3% – 29% 6% – 6% – – 38% 9%[gj] 11%
Morning Consult[248] Mar 1–31, 2023 615(LV) – – 20% 3% – 10% 1% 1% 58% 7%[gk] –
Morning Consult[248] Feb 1–28, 2023 473(LV) – – 24% 3% – 8% 1% 0% 58% 7%[gl] –
Morning Consult[248] Jan 1–31, 2023 697(LV) – – 27% 1% – 9% – 0% 57% 5%[gm] 1%
Morning Consult[248] Dec 1–31, 2022 414 (LV) – – 29% 2% – 8% – – 55% 7%[gn] –
Echelon Insights[250] Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 265 (LV) – – 30% – – – – – 60% – 10%
Amber Integrated[251] Aug 11–15, 2022 684 (LV) – 2% 22% 2% – 6% – 1% 50% 11%[go] 7%
– 2% 49% 5% – 10% – 1% – 27%[gp] 9%

Tennessee primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Burgum		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Targoz Market Research[252][Z] Dec 14–28, 2023 522 (LV) ± 2.66% – 1% 12% 7% 0% – 2% – 72% 1% 6%
Morning Consult[253] Nov 1–30, 2023 1,078 (LV) – 0% 2% 17% 8% 1% – 4% 1% 66% – 1%
Morning Consult[253] Oct 1–31, 2023 1,061 (LV) – 0% 1% 14% 6% 0% 6% 5% 2% 63% – 3%
Morning Consult[253] Sep 1–30, 2023 1,032 (LV) – 0% 2% 15% 5% 0% 5% 6% 2% 63% 0%[gq] 2%
Morning Consult[253] Aug 1–31, 2023 1,109 (LV) – 1% 2% 13% 2% 1% 8% 10% 3% 59% 0%[gr] 1%
Morning Consult[253] July 1–31, 2023 1,079 (LV) – 0% 2% 17% 2% 0% 10% 9% 2% 57% 0%[gr] 1%
Morning Consult[253] June 1–30, 2023 1,072 (LV) – 0% 1% 21% 3% 0% 9% 3% 3% 59% 1%[gs] –
The Beacon Center[254] Jun 14–22, 2023 502 (LV) – – – 12% – – 8% 1% 1% 61% – 9%
Morning Consult[253] May 1–31, 2023 1,147 (LV) – – – 18% 3% 0% 7% 2% 1% 64% 3%[gt] 2%
Morning Consult[253] Apr 1–30, 2023 986 (LV) – – – 22% 3% 0% 8% 1% 1% 61% 5%[gu] –
Vanderbilt University[255] Apr 19–23, 2023 1,003 (RV) ± 3.6% – – 25% 4% 2% 5% – 3% 59% – –
– – 38% – – – – – 57% – –
Morning Consult[253] Mar 1–31, 2023 1,027 (LV) – – – 25% 3% – 8% – 1% 59% 5%[gv] –
Morning Consult[253] Feb 1–28, 2023 980 (LV) – – – 29% 3% – 8% – 0% 55% 5%[gw] –
Morning Consult[253] Jan 1–31, 2023 1,265 (LV) – – – 35% 1% – 10% – 1% 47% 6%[gx] 1%
Morning Consult[253] Dec 1–31, 2022 698 (LV) – – – 34% 0% – 10% – 1% 51% 3%[gy] 1%
Vanderbilt University[256] Nov 8–28, 2022 474 (RV) ± 3.4% – – 54% – – – – – 41% – 5%

Texas primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Burgum		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
YouGov[257][AA] Dec 1–10, 2023 552 (RV) ± 4.17% 1% 2% 12% 9% – – 4% – 65% 2%[gz] 6%
Morning Consult[258] Nov 1–30, 2023 3,064 (LV) – 1% 2% 12% 7% 1% – 7% 1% 69% – –
CWS Research[259][AB] Nov 20–22, 2023 458 (LV) ± 4.579% 0% 3% 11% 11% – – 2% – 61% – 11%
– – 22% – – – – – 63% – 14%
– – – 20% – – – – 70% – 10%
Morning Consult[258] Oct 1–31, 2023 3,187 (LV) – 0% 2% 11% 6% 0% 5% 7% 2% 66% 0%[ha] 1%
YouGov[260][AA] Oct 5–17, 2023 568 (RV) ± 4.11% 0% 1% 13% 7% 1% 3% 3% 1% 62% 3%[hb] 5%
CWS Research[261][AB] October 5–9, 2023 418 (LV) ± 4.793% 0% 1% 9% 11% N/A 2% 5% 1% 58% – 13%
– – 24% – – – – – 59% – 17%
Morning Consult[258] Sep 1–30, 2023 3,099 (LV) – 1% 1% 13% 4% 1% 5% 9% 2% 62% 0%[hc] 2%
CWS Research[262][AB] Sep 1–4, 2023 406 (LV) ± 4.864% 0% 2% 10% 5% 1% 5% 3% 1% 61% 2%[hd] 10%
– – 24% – – – – – 62% – 14%
Morning Consult[258] Aug 1–31, 2023 3,070 (LV) – 0% 2% 12% 3% 0% 7% 11% 3% 61% 1%[he] –
CWS Research[263][AB] Jul 30–31, 2023 606 (LV) ± 3.981% 0% 4% 13% 3% 1% 4% 4% 5% 48% 3%[hf] 15%
– – 29% – – – – – 53% – 19%
Morning Consult[258] July 1–31, 2023 3,156 (LV) – 0% 1% 15% 3% 0% 8% 9% 4% 59% 0%[hg] 1%
CWS Research[264][AB] Jun 28–30, 2023 764 (LV) ± 3.546% 0% 3% 19% 4% 1% 5% 2% 3% 51% 3%[hh] 10%
– – 32% – – – – – 53% – 15%
Morning Consult[258] June 1–30, 2023 2,929 (LV) – 0% 1% 18% 3% 1% 7% 4% 3% 59% 2%[hi] 2%
Morning Consult[258] May 1–31, 2023 2,829 (LV) – – – 19% 4% 0% 5% 3% 2% 58% 7%[hj] 2%
CWS Research[265][AB] May 26–30, 2023 1,024 (LV) ± 3.07% – – 23% 3% 2% 4% 2% 3% 47% 4%[hk] 13%
– – 33% – – – – – 51% – 16%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[266] May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% – – 36% – – – – – 57% 2%[hl] 5%
CWS Research[267] Apr 29 – May 1, 2023 699 (LV) ± 3.7% – – 16% 5% 0% 3% 3% 1% 54% 4%[hm] 15%
Morning Consult[258] Apr 1–30, 2023 2,736 (LV) – – – 20% 3% 0% 6% 2% 1% 57% 9%[hn] 2%
CWS Research[268][AB] Mar 30 – Apr 2, 2023 1,067 (LV) ± 3.0% – – 20% 4% – 5% 2% 1% 52% 5%[ho] 12%
Morning Consult[258] Mar 1–31, 2023 2,629 (LV) – – – 24% 4% – 7% 0% 1% 53% 11%[hp] –
CWS Research[269][AB] Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2023 879 (LV) ± 3.3% – – 27% 5% – 4% 2% 1% 43% 5%[hq] 13%
Morning Consult[258] Feb 1–28, 2023 2,376 (LV) – – – 27% 3% – 6% 0% 1% 51% 12%[hr] –
Morning Consult[258] Jan 1–31, 2023 3,187 (LV) – – – 28% 2% – 9% – 0% 48% 13%[hs] –
Morning Consult[258] Dec 1–31, 2022 1,871 (LV) – – – 30% 2% – 8% – 0% 45% 15%[ht] –
CWS Research[270][AB] Dec 19–21, 2022 1,051 (LV) ± 3.0% – – 36% 4% – 4% – 1% 37% 7%[hu] 11%
CWS Research[271][AB] Nov 27–28, 2022 860 (LV) ± 3.3% – – 34% 4% – 5% – 1% 37% 5%[hv] 13%
CWS Research[272][AC] Nov 12–13, 2022 1,099 (LV) ± 3.0% – – 43% 4% – 5% – 1% 32% 1%[hw] 14%
CWS Research[273][AB] Oct 19–23, 2022 823 (RV) – – – 29% 3% – 4% – – 46% 7%[hx] 11%
Echelon Insights[274] Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 378 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 37% – – – – – 53% – 10%
CWS Research[275][AB] Aug 9–11, 2022 1,581 (RV) ± 2.5% – – 21% 5% – 6% – – 51% 7%[hy] 10%
CWS Research[276][AB] Jul 9–10, 2022 1,918 (RV) ± 2.2% – – 26% 5% – 6% – – 45% 20%[hz] 9%
CWS Research[277][AB] Jun 7–8, 2022 665 (RV) ± 3.8% – – 26% 4% – 5% – – 49% 8%[ia] 8%
CWS Research[278][AB] May 4–10, 2022 992 (LV) ± 3.1% – – 28% 7% – – – – 44% 13%[ib] 8%
CWS Research[279][AB] Mar 29 – Apr 1, 2022 678 (LV) ± 3.8% – – 20% 10% – – – – 46% 16%[ic] 8%
Polls without Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Greg
Abbott		 Ted
Cruz		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Mike
Pompeo		 Other Undecided
CWS Research[272][AC] Nov 12–13, 2022 1,099 (LV) ± 3.0% – – 66% 5% 8% 3% 2%[id] 16%
CWS Research[273][AB] Oct 19–23, 2022 823 (RV) – 8% 8% 64% 5% 4% – – 11%
CWS Research[275][AB] Aug 9–11, 2022 1,581 (RV) ± 2.5% 8% 10% 58% 7% 8% – – 9%
CWS Research[276][AB] Jul 9–10, 2022 1,918 (RV) ± 2.2% 4% 5% 56% 5% 8% – 1%[ie] 10%
CWS Research[277][AB] Jun 7–8, 2022 665 (RV) ± 3.8% 7% 11% 57% 3% 8% – 3%[if] 11%
CWS Research[278][AB] May 4–10, 2022 992 (LV) ± 3.1% 10% 14% 56% 9% – – 3%[ig] 8%
CWS Research[279][AB] Mar 29 – Apr 1, 2022 678 (LV) ± 3.8% 10% 19% 48% 13% – – 3%[ig] 7%
CWS Research[280] Feb 5–7, 2022 715 (LV) – 13% – 46% – – – 18% 23%

Utah caucus

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[281] Oct 12–23, 2023 509 (RV) – 3% 14% 13% 5% 4% 1% 30% – 20%
Dan Jones & Associates[282] Sep 24–29, 2023 802 (RV) ± 4.32% 4% 15% 11% 5% 5% 1% 33% 6% 22%
Dan Jones & Associates[283] Aug 7–14, 2023 476 (RV) ± 4.49% 4% 19% 4% 9% 5% 2% 27% 18%[ih] 13%
Noble Perspective Insights[284] Jul 7–18, 2023 301 (RV) ± 5.65% 2% 18% 3% 10% 6% 3% 48% 10%[ii] –
Dan Jones & Associates[285] Jun 26 – Jul 4, 2023 495 (RV) ± 4.4% 4% 24% 3% 6% 2% 2% 29% 13%[ij] 16%
Dan Jones & Associates[286] May 22 – Jun 1, 2023 421 (RV) ± 4.8% – 26% 5% 5% 4% 3% 27% 16%[ik] 16%
Dan Jones & Associates[287] April 25–28, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% – 19% 8% 6% – – 21% 24%[il] 22%
WPA Intelligence[288][AD] April 18–20, 2023 504 (RV) ± 4.0% – 46% – – – – 35% – 19%
OH Predictive Insights[289] March 14–23, 2023 302 (RV) ± 5.6% – 23% 5% 10% – 0% 41% 5%[im] –
Dan Jones & Associates[290] March 14–22, 2023 801 (RV) ± 3.5% – 31% 5% 4% – – 23% 12%[in] –
OH Predictive Insights[291] Dec 27, 2022 – Jan 4, 2023 302 (RV) ± 5.6% 1% 29% 3% 11% – – 42% 12%[io] 2%
Dan Jones & Associates[292] Nov 18–23, 2022 802 (RV) ± 3.5% – 24% 4% 6% – – 15% 30%[ip] 21%
OH Predictive Insights[293] Nov 5–15, 2021 333 (RV) ± 5.4% 1% 7% 4% 9% – – 43% 25%[iq] 10%
1% 18% 5% 13% – – – 32%[ir] 20%

Virginia primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[ew]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Burgum		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Larry
Elder		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Glenn
Youngkin		 Other Undecided
Roanoke College[294] Feb 11–19, 2024 392 (LV) ± 4.6% – – – – 43% – – – – 51% – – –
Morning Consult[295] Jan 23 – February 4, 2024 436 (LV) – – – – – 19% – – – – 78% – – –
Morning Consult[295] Nov 1–30, 2023 942(LV) – 0% 5% 14% – 9% – – 7% 1% 63% – – 1%
Roanoke College[296] Nov 12–20, 2023 686 (A) ± 4.3% 0% 2% 14% – 10% – – 3% 1% 51% 10% – 9%
Morning Consult[295] Oct 1–31, 2023 942 (LV) – 0% 3% 10% – 8% 0% 5% 8% 3% 63% – 0%[is] –
Morning Consult[295] Sep 1–30, 2023 896 (LV) – 0% 3% 14% – 6% 0% 4% 9% 1% 61% – 0%[it] 2%
Morning Consult[295] Aug 1–31, 2023 947 (LV) – 0% 4% 15% – 3% 1% 5% 10% 2% 59% – 0%[iu] 1%
Roanoke College[297] Aug 6–15, 2023 702 (A) ± 4.2% – 3% 13% 1% 2% 1% 7% 5% 6% 47% 9% 6%[iv] 2%
Morning Consult[295] July 1–31, 2023 1,044(LV) – 0% 4% 20% – 4% 0% 7% 7% 3% 55% – 0%[iw] –
Morning Consult[295] June 1–30, 2023 919 (LV) – 0% 2% 19% – 5% 0% 7% 3% 3% 60% – 0%[ix] 1%
Morning Consult[295] May 1–31, 2023 969 (LV) – – – 21% – 3% 0% 6% 3% 2% 59% 3% 3%[iy] –
Roanoke College[298] May 14–23, 2023 678 (A) ± 4.4% – – 28% 1% 7% 1% 7% – 1% 48% – 3%[iz] 4%
Morning Consult[295] Apr 1–30, 2023 870 (LV) – – – 20% – 3% 0% 6% 2% 1% 59% 6% 3%[ja] 1%
Morning Consult[295] Mar 1–31, 2023 921 (LV) – – – 26% – 3% – 6% 1% 0% 50% 9% 3%[jb] 2%
Morning Consult[295] Feb 1–28, 2023 721 (LV) – – – 31% – 4% – 6% 1% 1% 47% 9% 1%[jc] –
Differentiators[299] Feb 21–24, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% – – 37% – 6% – 3% 2% – 34% 6% 7%[jd] 5%
– – 54% – – – – – – 37% – – 9%
– – 65% – – – – – – – 27% – 8%
– – – – – – – – – 52% 42% – 6%
Roanoke College[300] Feb 12–21, 2023 680 (A) ± 4.2% – – 28% – 5% – 3% – – 39% 6% 6%[je] 13%
Morning Consult[295] Jan 1–31, 2023 1,000 (LV) – – – 32% – 2% – 10% – 1% 43% 8% 2%[jf] 2%
Morning Consult[295] Dec 1–31, 2022 559 (LV) – – – 30% – 2% – 11% – 1% 45% 7% 5%[jg] –
Roanoke College[301] Nov 13–22, 2022 652 (A) ± 4.5% – – – – – – – – – 52% 39% – 7%
Roanoke College[302] Aug 7–16, 2022 640 (A) ± 4.5% – – – – – – – – – 62% 28% – 9%

Georgia primary

States
polled		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[jh]		 Margin
FiveThirtyEight[303] through February 4, 2024 March 5, 2024 16.3% 81.1% 2.6% Trump +64.8
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Burgum		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
CNN/SSRS[304] Nov 30 – Dec 7, 2023 522 (LV) ± 3.3% – 4% 17% 17% 1% – 3% – 55% 2%[ji] 2%
– 37% – – – – – – 61% – 2%
– – 31% – – – – – 69% – –
Morning Consult[305] Nov 1–30, 2023 1,477 (LV) – 0% 2% 14% 10% 0% – 6% 1% 66% – 1%
Morning Consult[305] Oct 1–31, 2023 1,525 (LV) – 0% 2% 15% 6% 0% 3% 8% 2% 63% 0%[jj] 1%
Zogby Analytics[306] Oct 9–12, 2023 273 (LV) ± 3.9% – 3% 10% 9% – 5% 7% 5% 55% – 6%
Morning Consult[305] Sep 1–30, 2023 1,452 (LV) – – 1% 15% 6% 1% 4% 10% 3% 61% 0%[jk] –
20/20 Insights[307] Sep 25–28, 2023 245 (LV) ± 6.3% 0% 4% 16% 7% 0% 4% 3% 2% 58% – 6%
Morning Consult[305] Aug 1–31, 2023 1,599 (LV) – 0% 1% 14% 4% 0% 5% 10% 3% 62% 0%[jl] 1%
University of Georgia[308] Aug 16–23, 2023 807 (LV) ± 3.4% 0% 2% 15% 3% 0% 4% 3% 3% 57% 1%[jm] 14%
Morning Consult[305] July 1–31, 2023 1,633 (LV) – 0% 1% 19% 3% 0% 6% 9% 3% 57% 1%[jn] 1%
Morning Consult[305] June 1–30, 2023 1,599 (LV) – 0% 2% 22% 3% 1% 6% 3% 3% 58% 0%[jo] 2%
Morning Consult[305] May 1–31, 2023 1,470 (LV) – – – 21% 3% 0% 6% 3% 2% 61% 1%[jp] 3%
Landmark Communications[309] May 14, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% – 2% 32% 6% – 2% 2% 2% 40% 7%[jq] 6%
Morning Consult[305] Apr 1–30, 2023 1,403 (LV) – – – 22% 4% 0% 7% 3% 2% 58% 4%[jr] 2%
University of Georgia[310] Apr 2–12, 2023 983 (LV) ± 3.1% – – 30% 4% – 2% – 1% 51% 3%[js] 7%
– – 41% – – – – – 51% – -
Morning Consult[305] Mar 1–31, 2023 1,426 (LV) – – – 29% 4% – 8% 1% 1% 53% 3%[jt] 1%
Morning Consult[305] Feb 1–28, 2023 1,280 (LV) – – – 32% 5% – 7% 0% 2% 50% 4%[ju] -
Morning Consult[305] Jan 1–31, 2023 1,714 (LV) – – – 33% 3% – 8% – 1% 50% 6%[jv] -
Morning Consult[305] Dec 1–31, 2022 972 (LV) – – – 35% 3% – 8% – 1% 47% 3%[jw] 3%
WPA Intelligence[311][L] Nov 11–13, 2022 843 (LV) ± 3.4% – – 55% – – – – – 35% – 10%
Nov 8, 2022 2022 midterm elections
Echelon Insights[312] Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2022 219 (LV) ± 5.4% – – 52% – – – – – 36% – 12%
Echelon Insights[313] Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 337 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 37% – – – – – 54% – 9%
Phillips Academy[314] Aug 3–7, 2022 371 (RV) ± 5.1% – – 29% – – 9% – – 54% – 8%
John Bolton Super PAC[315] Jul 22–24, 2022 163 (LV) – – 5% 36% – – 6% – – 29% 16%[jx] 19%
Spry Strategies[316] Apr 6–10, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – – 20% 6% – 5% – 1% 43% 11%[jy] 15%
– 39% 6% – 7% – 2% – 15%[jz] 31%
Trafalgar Group (R)[317] Mar 7–9, 2021 – (LV)[ka] – – – – – – – – – 70% 18%[kb] 12%
Jan 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR[318] Dec 30, 2020 – Jan 3, 2021 209 (LV) ± 7.0% – 1% – 3% – – – – 73% 12%[kc] –
- 1% – 8% – 36% – – – 31%[kd] 24%

Mississippi primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Mississippi Today/Siena College[319] Aug 20–28, 2023 650 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% 22% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 61% 2% –
Mississippi Today/Siena College[320] Jan 8–12, 2023 487 (RV) ± 5.9% – 39% – – – – – 46% 3%[ke] 11%
Echelon Insights[321] Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 211 (LV) ± 7.8% – 31% – – – – – 58% 11% –

Arizona primary

States
polled		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[kf]		 Margin
FiveThirtyEight[322] through February 4, 2024 March 5, 2024 19.9% 77.3% 2.8% Trump +57.4
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights[323] October 25–31, 2023 348 (RV) ± 5.25% 2% 16% 8% 0% 3% 9% 1% 53% 7%[kg] –
– 32% – – – – – 68% – –
Emerson College[324] August 2–4, 2023 663 (LV) ± 3.7% 6% 11% 3% 0% 3% 4% 3% 58% 11%[kh] 1%
Noble Predictive Insights[325] July 13–17, 2023 346 (RV) ± 5.3% 2% 19% 4% 0% 5% 9% 2% 50% 7%[ki] –
– 38% – – – – – 62% – –
J.L. Partners[326] Apr 10–12, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.2% – 24% 3% 0% 4% 2% 1% 47% 8%[kj] 11%
– 35% – – – – – 52% – 13%
Noble Predictive Insights[325] Apr 4–11, 2023 371 (RV) ± 5.1% – 21% 4% – 7% – 0% 49% 20%[kk] –
– 41% – – – – – 59% – –
Rasmussen Reports[327] Mar 13–14, 2023 – – – 24% – – – – – 52% – 24%
OH Predictive Insights[328] Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2023 350 (RV) ± 5.2% 1% 26% 5% – 8% – – 42% 11%[kl] 7%
Blueprint Polling[329] Jan 5–8, 2023 303 (V) – – 34% – – – – – 43% – 23%
Echelon Insights[330] Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 337 (LV) ± 4.5% – 36% – – – – – 53% – 11%
OH Predictive Insights[331] Nov 1–8, 2021 252 (RV) ± 6.2% 1% 16% 6% – 9% – – 48% 9%[km] 9%
0% 29% 8% – 21% – – – 25%[kn] 16%

Florida primary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[ko]		 Margin
FiveThirtyEight[332] through February 4, 2024 February 10, 2024 14.1% 84.2% 1.7% Trump +70.1
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Others Undecided
Victory Insights[333] Dec 8–9, 2023 1,220 (LV) ± 2.9% 5.3% 18.8% 7.6% – – 1.3% – 59.5% 2.7% 4.8%
– 25.8% – – – – – 56.8% – 17.4%
Florida Atlantic University
Political Communication & Public Opinion Research Lab/
Mainstreet Research[334]		 Oct 27 – November 11, 2023 400 (RV) – 1% 20% 9% – – 0% – 61% 2%[kp] 6%
– 30% – – – – – 63% – 7%
University of North Florida[335] Oct 23 – November 4, 2023 788 (LV) ± 3.77% 2% 21% 6% <1% 1% 1% <1% 60% <2%[kq] 8%
– 29% – – – – – 59% – 12%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[336] Oct 1–2, 2023 500 (LV) – 2% 22% 7% – 1% 1% 1% 57% 0% 7%
Victory Insights[337] Aug 21–23, 2023 590 (LV) ± 4.3% 4% 23% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 59% 1% 7%
– 30% – – – – – 57% – 13%
Florida Atlantic University[338] Jun 27 – July 1, 2023 315 (RV) – 2% 30% 1% 2% 2% 4% 3% 50% – 7%
– 37% – – – – – 54% – 8%
Breakthrough Research/Sachs Media[339] Jun 9–11, 2023 – – 2% 41% 2% 0% 3% 2% 0% 41% 0%[kr] 8%
Victory Insights[340] May 25–27, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.9% – 38% 3% – 3% 0% 3% 38% 4%[ks] 12%
– 40% – – – – – 39% – 21%
National Research[341][AE] May 8–9, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 34% 2% 0% 2% 2% 1% 42% 1%[kt] 16%
Florida Atlantic University[342] Apr 13–14, 2023 1,081 (RV) ± 3.0% – 31% – – – – – 59% – –
Victory Insights[343] Apr 6–8, 2023 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% – 35% 3% 1% – 4% – 43% – 14%
– 32% – – – – – 47% – 22%
Emerson College[344] Mar 13–15, 2023 1,153 (RV) ± 2.8% – 44% 2% – 4% – 1% 47% 3%[ku] –
University of North Florida[345] Feb 25 – March 7, 2023 550 (RV) ± 2.6% – 59% – – – – – 28% – 13%
– 52% 4% – 2% – 0% 27% 4%[kv] 11%
Victory Insights[346] Nov 16–17, 2022 700 (LV) ± 3.7% – 47% – – – – – 37% – 10%
WPA Intelligence[347][AF] Nov 11–13, 2022 1,044 (LV) – – 56% – – – – – 30% – 14%
November 8, 2022 2022 midterm elections
Victory Insights[348] Oct 30 – November 1, 2022 229 (LV) ± 4.8% – 50% – – – – – 50% – –
Suffolk University[349] Sep 15–18, 2022 174 (LV) – – 48% – – – – – 40% – 12%
Echelon Insights[350] Aug 31 – September 7, 2022 363 (LV) ± 4.3% – 45% – – – – – 47% – 8%
University of North Florida[351] Aug 8–12, 2022 671 (RV) ± 3.4% – 47% – – – – – 45% – 8%
WPA Intelligence[347][AF] Aug 7–10, 2022 1,000 (LV) – – 49% – – – – – 42% – 9%
Victory Insights[352] Jul 13–14, 2022 600 (RV) ± 4.1% – 61% – – – – – 39% – 0%
Blueprint Polling (D)[353] Jul 7–10, 2022 656 (V) ± 3.8% – 51% – – – – – 39% – 10%
Bendixen/Amandi International[354] March 2022 – – – 32% – – – – – 55% – 13%
University of North Florida[355] Feb 7–20, 2022 259 (RV) – – 44% – – – – – 41% – 15%
Suffolk University[356] Jan 26–29, 2022 176 (LV) – – 40% – – – – – 47% – 13%
Victory Insights[357] Sep 16–18, 2021 200 (LV) – – 30% – – – – – 58% – 12%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[358] Aug 4–10, 2021 280 (RV) – 1% 34% 3% – – – – 43% 10%[kw] 8%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[359] Feb 15–17, 2021 304 (LV) – – 64% – – – – – – 22% [kx] 14%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[360] July 16–18, 2019 280 (LV) – – 37% – – – – – – 44%[ky] 19%

Illinois primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Cor Strategies[361] Aug 24–27, 2023 – – 6% 10% 6% 5% 5% 2% 53% 2%[kz] 9%
6% 26% 10% 10% 16% 9% – 8%[la] 16%
Public Policy Polling[362] Jun 6–7, 2022 677 (LV) – 2% 23% 3% 6% – 2% 51% 5%[lb] 8%

Kansas caucus

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Remington Research[363] Feb 15–16, 2023 1,010 (LV) 41% – – 33% – 26%
17% 9% 9% 30% 9%[lc] 19%
Echelon Insights[364] Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 192 (LV) 37% – – 52% – 11%

Ohio primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[365] Dec 12–14, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% 11% 15% – – 3% – 61% – 4%
Morning Consult[366] Nov 1–30, 2023 1,881 (LV) – 3% 11% 8% 0% – 6% 1% 69% 0%[ld] 2%
Emerson College/Nexstar, WJW (Cleveland)[367] Nov 10–13, 2023 468 (LV) ±  4.5% 2% 8% 10% 1% – 6% 1% 62% 1%[le] 10%
Morning Consult[366] Oct 1–31, 2023 1,893(LV) – 2% 13% 7% 0% 5% 8% 2% 62% 0%[lf] 1%
Ohio Northern University[368] Oct 16–19, 2023 269 (LV) ± 2.15% 1% 10% 5% 0%[cw] 4% 9% – 64% 1%[lg] 6%
Morning Consult[366] Sep 1–30, 2023 1,621(LV) – 3% 14% 5% 0% 5% 11% 2% 60% 0%[lf] –
Morning Consult[366] Aug 1–31, 2023 1,803(LV) – 3% 12% 3% 0% 7% 10% 3% 61% 1%[lh] –
Morning Consult[366] July 1–31, 2023 1,835(LV) – 3% 16% 2% 0% 8% 9% 3% 58% 0%[li] 1%
Ohio Northern University[369] Jul 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 2% 9% 3% 1% 6% 12% 5% 64% 1% 3%
Suffolk University[370] Jul 9–12, 2023 190 (RV) – 4% 23% 2% 2% 4% 2% 5% 48% 3%[lj] 8%
Morning Consult[366] June 1–30, 2023 1,711(LV) – 2% 19% 3% 1% 7% 5% 3% 59% 1%[lk] 1%
East Carolina University[371] Jun 21–24, 2023 405 (RV) ± 4.0% 4% 15% 2% 1% 5% 3% – 59% 2% 10%
Morning Consult[366] May 1–31, 2023 1,792(LV) – – 20% 3% 0% 7% 5% 2% 60% 3%[ll] –
Morning Consult[366] Apr 1–30, 2023 1,754(LV) – – 21% 2% 0% 8% 2% 2% 61% 4%[lm] –
Morning Consult[366] Mar 1–31, 2023 1,827(LV) – – 27% 4% – 7% 0% 1% 56% 3%[ln] 2%
Morning Consult[366] Feb 1–28, 2023 1,573(LV) – – 30% 4% – 9% 0% 1% 50% 4%[lo] 2%
Morning Consult[366] Jan 1–31, 2023 2,095(LV) – – 31% 2% – 9% – 1% 50% 5%[lp] 2%
Morning Consult[366] Dec 1–31, 2022 1,188 (LV) – – 33% 2% – 8% – 1% 48% 5%[lq] 3%
Echelon Insights[372] Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 377 (LV) ± 4.3% – 30% – – – – – 58% 12% –
John Bolton Super PAC[373] Jul 22–24, 2022 136 (LV) – 2% 30% – – 9% – – 28% 16%[lr] 13%

Louisiana primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[ew]		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Emerson College[374] Aug 13–14, 2023 (LV) – 1% 10% 2% 1% 1% 75% 0%[ls] –
Echelon Insights[375] Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 242 (LV) ± 6.5% – 29% – – – 65% – 6%

New York primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Others Undecided
Morning Consult[376] Nov 1–30, 2023 1,876 (LV) – 4% 13% 8% 0% – 5% 2% 66% 1%[lt] 1%
Morning Consult[376] Oct 1–31, 2023 2,014 (LV) – 4% 12% 6% 0% 4% 7% 3% 64% 0%[lu] –
Morning Consult[376] Sep 1–30, 2023 1,924 (LV) – 3% 14% 5% 1% 5% 8% 2% 62% 1%[lv] –
Siena College[377] Sep 10–13, 2023 804 (RV) ± 4.3% – – – – – – – 64% 27% 8%
Morning Consult[376] Aug 1–31, 2023 2,006 (LV) – 4% 14% 4% 0% 7% 10% 2% 57% 0%[lw] 2%
Siena College[377] Aug 13–16, 2023 803 (RV) ± 4.4% – – – – – – – 63% 32% 5%
Morning Consult[376] July 1–31, 2023 1,886 (LV) – 4% 18% 2% 0% 6% 8% 2% 58% 1%[lx] 1%
Morning Consult[376] June 1–30, 2023 1,856(LV) – 3% 17% 3% 1% 6% 4% 4% 60% 1%[ly] 1%
Siena College[378] Jun 20–25, 2023 817 (RV) ± 3.9% – – – – – – – 61% 34% 5%
Morning Consult[376] May 1–31, 2023 1,932(LV) – – 17% 3% 1% 6% 4% 4% 63% 3%[lz] –
Siena College[379] May 7–11, 2023 810 (RV) ± 4.1% – – – – – – – 60% 32% 8%
Morning Consult[376] Apr 1–30, 2023 1,792(LV) – – 20% 3% 0% 6% 1% 3% 59% 7%[ma] 1%
Morning Consult[376] Mar 1–31, 2023 1,831(LV) – – 28% 4% – 6% 0% 4% 51% 6%[mb] 1%
Siena College[380] Mar 19–22, 2023 802 (RV) ± 4.6% – 27% – – – – – 52% 18% –
Morning Consult[376] Feb 1–28, 2023 1,410(LV) – – 28% 4% – 8% 0% 2% 51% 6%[mc] 1%
Echelon Insights[381] Feb 21–23, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.2% – 45% – – – – – 44% – 13%
Morning Consult[376] Jan 1–31, 2023 1,871(LV) – – 34% 3% – 9% – 1% 46% 9%[md] –
Morning Consult[376] Dec 1–31, 2022 1,074 (LV) – – 33% 3% – 7% – 3% 44% 9%[me] 1%

Rhode Island primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Ron
DeSantis		 Donald
Trump		 Other
Echelon Insights[382] Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 102 (LV) ± 6.1% 38% 54% 8%

Wisconsin primary

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Nikki
Haley		 Donald
Trump		 Other/
Undecided[mf]		 Margin
270ToWin[383] February 7, 2024 February 15, 2024 22.5% 71.5% 6.0% Trump +49.0
FiveThirtyEight[384] through February 4, 2024 February 15, 2024 21.1% 70.9% 8.0% Trump +49.8
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Burgum		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[385] Dec 11–12, 2023 503 (LV) ± 4.4% – 5% 16% 15% – – 4% – 54% – 6%
Morning Consult[386] Nov 1–30, 2023 720 (LV) – 1% 2% 17% 13% 1% – 6% 2% 56% – 2%
Marquette University Law School[387] October 26 – November 2, 2023 402 (RV) ± 6.8% 1% 1% 18% 11% 0% 6% 3% 1% 38% 0%[mg] 24%
Morning Consult[386] Oct 1–31, 2023 713 (LV) – 0% 3% 15% 12% 1% 4% 9% 3% 52% – 1%
Morning Consult[386] Sep 1–30, 2023 665 (LV) – – 2% 16% 9% 1% 7% 11% 2% 50% 0%[mh] 2%
Morning Consult[386] Aug 1–31, 2023 681 (LV) – – 3% 16% 6% 2% 8% 11% 5% 50% 0%[mi] –
Morning Consult[386] July 1–31, 2023 707 (LV) – 0% 2% 25% 5% 1% 8% 8% 4% 46% 1%[mj] –
Morning Consult[386] June 1–30, 2023 666 (LV) – – 2% 24% 3% 0% 7% 6% 7% 51% 1%[mk] –
Marquette Law School[388] June 8–13, 2023 419 (RV) ± 6.5% 0% 1% 30% 3% 0% 6% 3% 5% 31% 0%[ml] 21%
Public Policy Polling[389] June 5–6, 2023 507 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 25% 5% – 8% 2% 5% 41% – 14%
– – 39% – – – – – 43% – 18%
Morning Consult[386] May 1–31, 2023 728 (LV) – – – 24% 4% 0% 8% 5% 3% 52% 4%[mm] –
Morning Consult[386] Apr 1–30, 2023 771 (LV) – – – 31% 4% 0% 9% 2% 2% 45% 5%[mn] 2%
Morning Consult[386] Mar 1–31, 2023 722 (LV) – – – 35% 6% – 9% 1% 2% 43% 4%[mo] –
Morning Consult[386] Feb 1–28, 2023 626 (LV) – – – 34% 4% – 9% 0% 1% 44% 7%[mp] 1%
Morning Consult[386] Jan 1–31, 2023 897 (LV) – – – 32% 2% – 11% – 2% 42% 10%[mq] 1%
Morning Consult[386] Dec 1–31, 2022 558 (LV) – – – 36% 4% – 9% – 1% 40% 8%[mr] 2%

Pennsylvania primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[390] Jan 4–8, 2024 651 (RV) ± 3.8% 6% 10% 14% – – 4% – 61% 2%[ms] 3%
Morning Consult[391] Nov 1–30, 2023 2,056 (LV) – 4% 14% 9% 0% – 6% 1% 63% 0%[mt] 3%
Morning Consult[391] Oct 1–31, 2023 2,009 (LV) – 4% 15% 7% 0% 6% 7% 1% 59% 0%[mu] 1%
Franklin & Marshall College[392] Oct 11–22, 2023 359 (RV) ± 6.4% 4% 14% 9% 0% 2% 5% 3% 55% 2%[mv] 7%
Quinnipiac University[393] Sep 28 – Oct 2, 2023 711 (RV) ± 3.7% 4% 14% 8% 0% 4% 2% 1% 61% 3%[mw] 3%
Morning Consult[391] Sep 1–30, 2023 1,910 (LV) – 3% 14% 6% 0% 8% 8% 1% 58% 0%[mx] 2%
Morning Consult[391] Aug 1–31, 2023 1,979 (LV) – 4% 15% 3% 0% 8% 8% 2% 58% 0%[my] 2%
Franklin & Marshall College[394] Aug 9–20, 2023 297 (RV) ± 7.0% 3% 21% 5% 1% 6% 9% 6% 39% 5%[mz] 8%
Morning Consult[391] July 1–31, 2023 2,139 (LV) – 4% 20% 3% 0% 7% 7% 3% 55% 1%[na] –
Morning Consult[391] June 1–30, 2023 2,136 (LV) – 3% 23% 3% 1% 9% 3% 3% 54% 1%[nb] –
Quinnipiac University[395] Jun 22–26, 2023 614 (RV) ± 4.0% 5% 25% 4% – 5% 1% 4% 49% – 6%
Morning Consult[391] May 1–31, 2023 2,062 (LV) – – 22% 4% 0% 7% 3% 2% 58% 4%[nc] –
Morning Consult[391] Apr 1–30, 2023 2,058 (LV) – – 25% 3% 0% 9% 2% 2% 53% 6%[nd] –
Franklin & Marshall College[396] Mar 27 – Apr 7, 2023 227 (RV) ± 4.9% – 34% 4% – 6% – 0% 40% 6%[ne] 11%
Morning Consult[391] Mar 1–31, 2023 2,103 (LV) – – 30% 4% – 8% 0% 1% 51% 4%[nf] 2%
Public Policy Polling[397] Mar 9–10, 2023 616 (LV) – – 31% 5% – 5% – – 49% – 10%
– 40% – – – – – 48% – 13%
Morning Consult[391] Feb 1–28, 2023 1,769 (LV) – – 32% 4% – 8% 0% 1% 46% 8%[ng] 1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[398] Feb 19–26, 2023 320 (RV) ± 3.2% – 37% 4% – 2% – 1% 32% 27%[nh] –
Morning Consult[391] Jan 1–31, 2023 2,470 (LV) – – 35% 2% – 10% – 1% 43% 9%[ni] –
Morning Consult[391] Dec 1–31, 2022 1,381 (LV) – – 34% 2% – 10% – 1% 44% 8%[nj] 1%
Communication Concepts[399] Nov 19–21, 2022 639 (RV) ± 3.9% – 45% – – – – – 40% 4% 12%
Echelon Insights[400] Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 353 (LV) – – 40% – – – – – 48% 12% –
John Bolton Super PAC[401] Jul 22–24, 2022 129 (LV) – 2% 29% – – 7% – – 40% 10%[nk] –

Indiana primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Bellwether Research & Consulting[402] Dec 11–17, 2022 457 (LV) – 28% 3% 13% 39% 1%[nl] 15%

Maryland primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Larry
Hogan		 Mike
Pence		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
OpinionWorks[403] April 7–10, 2024 451 (LV) ± 4.6% – 18% – – – 74% - 7%
Gonzales Research[404] May 30 – Jun 6, 2023 221 (LV) ± 3.5% 37% - - - - 42% - 21%
co/efficient[405] Feb 19–20, 2023 1,007 (LV) ± 3.58% 27% 6% 18% 1% 1% 33% 2%[nm] 12%
– – 32% – – 59% – 10%
39% – – – – 35% – 26%
OpinionWorks[406] May 27 – Jun 2, 2022 428 (LV) ± 4.7% 12% 5% 25% 6% – 48% – –

West Virginia primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
ECU Center for Survey Research[407] May 22–23, 2023 957 (RV) ± 3.7% 9% 3% 2% 5% 2% 4% 54% – 20%

Kentucky caucus

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Asa
Hutchinson		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Emerson College[408] May 10–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 2% 14% 3% 0% 4% 3% 1% 70% 3%[nn] –
Emerson College[409] Apr 10–11, 2023 900 (LV) ± 3.0% – 23% 4% 1% 4% – 1% 62% 6%[no] –

Montana primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[k]		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Christie		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Vivek
Ramaswamy		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[410] Oct 23–25, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 12% 7% 3% 3% 1% 64% 2%[np] 6%
J.L. Partners[411] Aug 12–17, 2023 418 (LV)  ? 3% 15% 3% 2% 6% 3% 52% 3%[nq] 12%
– 29% – – – – 56% – 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[412] Jun 19–20, 2023 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 4% 23% 5% 5% 3% 2% 46% – 12%
– 37% – – – – 49% – 14%
Echelon Insights[413] Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 142 (LV) ± 6.6% – 28% – – – – 56% – 16%


See also

Notes

References

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