2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Montana, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.
 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
November 5, 2024
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Both Montana seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Overview
Statewide
| Party | Candi- dates | Votes | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | % | No. | +/– | % | |||
| Republican Party | 2 | 350,361 | 58.50% | 2 |  | 100% | |
| Democratic Party | 2 | 237,496 | 39.65% | 0 | | 0% | |
| Libertarian Party | 1 | 9,954 | 1.66% | 0 | | 0% | |
| Write-ins | – | 1,107 | 0.18% | 0 | | 0% | |
| Total | 5 | 598,918 | 100% | 2 | | 100% | |
District
| District | Republican | Democratic | Others | Total | Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| District 1 | 168,529 | 52.29% | 143,783 | 44.62% | 9,954 | 3.09% | 322,266 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 2 | 181,832 | 65.73% | 93,713 | 33.87% | 1,107 | 0.40% | 276,652 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| Total | 350,361 | 58.50% | 237,496 | 39.65% | 11,061 | 1.85% | 598,918 | 100.0% | |
District 1
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
  Zinke: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tranel: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
.jpg)
The 1st district is based in mountainous Western Montana, including the cities of Missoula, Kalispell, Bozeman and Butte. The incumbent was Republican Ryan Zinke, who was elected with 49.7% of the vote in 2022.[1] He initially had expressed interest in running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but chose not to do so.[2]
Republican primary
Nominee
- Ryan Zinke, incumbent U.S. representative[3]
Eliminated in primary
Endorsements
Ryan Zinke
- Executive branch officials
- John Bolton, United States National Security Advisor (2018–2019), United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)[5]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[6]
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Mary Todd (R) | $87,253[a] | $67,177 | $20,075 |
| Ryan Zinke (R) | $5,752,008 | $3,341,562 | $2,520,494 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[9] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ryan Zinke (incumbent) | 66,409 | 73.74% | |
| Republican | Mary Todd | 23,647 | 26.26% | |
| Total votes | 90,056 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Nominee
- Monica Tranel, lawyer, former Olympic rower, and nominee for this district in 2022[3]
Endorsements
Monica Tranel
- U.S. representatives
- Lois Frankel, U.S. representative from Florida's 22nd congressional district (2013–present)[11]
- Annie Kuster, U.S. representative for New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district (2013–2025)[12]
- Pat Ryan, U.S. representative for New York's 18th congressional district (2023–present)[12]
- Statewide officials
- Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana (2005–2013)[13]
- Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan (2019–present)[14]
- State legislators
- Dave Fern, state representative from the 5th district (2017–present)[13]
- Shannon O'Brien, state senator from the 46th district (2021–present)[15]
- Organizations
- DCCC Red to Blue[16]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[17]
- EMILY's List[18]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[19]
- League of Conservation Voters[20]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare(Post-primary)[21]
- National Organization for Women PAC[22]
- NewDem Action Fund[12]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[23]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[24]
- Labor unions
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Monica Tranel (D) | $2,340,724 | $826,277 | $1,524,332 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[9] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Monica Tranel | 59,806 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 59,806 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Nominee
- Dennis Hayes, remodeling contractor[4]
Eliminated in primary
- Ernie Noble, construction worker[4]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Dennis Hayes | 390 | 65.44% | |
| Libertarian | Ernie Noble | 206 | 34.56% | |
| Total votes | 596 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Lean R | October 4, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[27] | Lean R | September 15, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Lean R | February 23, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[29] | Lean R | September 7, 2023 |
| CNalysis[30] | Lean R | November 16, 2023 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ryan Zinke (R) |
Monica Tranel (D) |
Dennis Hayes (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research (D)[31][A] | October 14–17, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 4% | 5% |
| Guidance Polling and Strategy[32][B] | October 13–16, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 44% | – | 4% |
| Montana State University[33] | September 30 – October 16, 2024 | (A) | – | 44% | 37% | 4% | 15% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[34][C] | September 11–14, 2024 | 432 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| 47% | 43% | 3% | 7% | ||||
| DCCC (D)[35] | September 11–13, 2024 | 864 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 45% | – | 9%[c] |
| Impact Research (D)[36][A] | August 26–29, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 44% | 4% | 5% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[37][D] |
August 25–29, 2024 | 310 (LV) | – | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| Impact Research (D)[36][A] | May 2024 | – | – | 46% | 42% | 6% | 6% |
| Impact Research (D)[36][A] | February 2024 | – | – | 52% | 43% | 0% | 5% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ryan Zinke (incumbent) | 168,529 | 52.29% | |
| Democratic | Monica Tranel | 143,783 | 44.62% | |
| Libertarian | Dennis Hayes | 9,954 | 3.09% | |
| Total votes | 322,266 | 100.00% | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
By county
| County[38] | Ryan Zinke Republican |
Monica Tranel Democratic |
Dennis Hayes Libertarian |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Beaverhead | 3,987 | 68.65% | 1,642 | 28.27% | 179 | 3.08% | 2,345 | 40.38% | 5,808 |
| Deer Lodge | 2,092 | 42.88% | 2,590 | 53.08% | 197 | 4.04% | -498 | -10.21% | 4,879 |
| Flathead | 40,681 | 64.32% | 20,801 | 32.89% | 1,764 | 2.79% | 19,880 | 31.43% | 63,246 |
| Gallatin | 31,673 | 45.35% | 36,178 | 51.81% | 1,983 | 2.84% | -4,505 | -6.45% | 69,834 |
| Glacier | 1,779 | 34.91% | 3,131 | 61.44% | 186 | 3.65% | -1,352 | -26.53% | 5,096 |
| Granite | 1,463 | 67.17% | 630 | 28.93% | 85 | 3.90% | 833 | 38.25% | 2,178 |
| Lake | 9,520 | 56.18% | 6,909 | 40.77% | 517 | 3.05% | 2,611 | 15.41% | 16,946 |
| Lincoln | 8,534 | 72.63% | 2,756 | 23.46% | 460 | 3.91% | 5,778 | 49.17% | 11,750 |
| Madison | 4,508 | 69.74% | 1,751 | 27.09% | 205 | 3.17% | 2,757 | 42.65% | 6,464 |
| Mineral | 1,950 | 68.81% | 748 | 26.39% | 136 | 4.80% | 1,202 | 42.41% | 2,834 |
| Missoula | 26,195 | 35.95% | 44,611 | 61.22% | 2,066 | 2.84% | -18,416 | -25.27% | 72,872 |
| Pondera (part) | 523 | 60.96% | 306 | 35.66% | 29 | 3.38% | 217 | 25.29% | 858 |
| Powell | 2,371 | 72.35% | 757 | 23.10% | 149 | 4.55% | 1,614 | 49.25% | 3,277 |
| Ravalli | 19,972 | 66.78% | 9,062 | 30.30% | 873 | 2.92% | 10,910 | 36.48% | 29,907 |
| Sanders | 5,886 | 73.04% | 1,854 | 23.01% | 319 | 3.96% | 4,032 | 50.03% | 8,059 |
| Silver Bow | 7,395 | 40.50% | 10,057 | 55.08% | 806 | 4.41% | -2,662 | -14.58% | 18,258 |
| Totals | 168,529 | 52.29% | 143,783 | 44.62% | 9,954 | 3.09% | 24,746 | 7.68% | 322,266 |
District 2
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
  Downing: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Driscoll: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
.jpg)
The 2nd district encompasses much of the state east of the Continental Divide, including the cities of Billings, Great Falls and Helena. The incumbent was Republican Matt Rosendale, who was re-elected with 56.6% of the vote in 2022.[1] He announced in February 2024 that he would run for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but dropped out of the race one week later.[39] On March 8, 2024, Rosendale announced that he would not be seeking any office in 2024.[40]
Republican primary
Nominee
- Troy Downing, Montana State Auditor (2021–2025) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[41]
Eliminated in primary
- Elsie Arntzen, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction (2017–2025) and candidate for the at-large district in 2014[42]
- Kyle Austin, pharmacist and candidate for this district in 2022[4]
- Kenneth Bogner, president pro tempore of the Montana Senate (2023–present) from the 19th district (2019–present) and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020[43]
- Ric Holden, former state senator from the 1st district (1995–2003)[44]
- Joel Krautter, former state representative from the 35th district (2019–2021)[44]
- Denny Rehberg, former U.S. representative from the at-large district (2001–2013), former Lieutenant Governor of Montana (1991–1997), and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012[45]
- Stacy Zinn, retired DEA agent[46]
Withdrawn
- Matt Rosendale, incumbent U.S. representative[40]
- Ed Walker, former state senator from the 29th district (2011–2015) and candidate for the at-large district in 2017 (remained on ballot)[47]
Endorsements
Elsie Arntzen
- U.S. representatives
- Bob Good, chair of the Freedom Caucus (2024) and VA-05 (2021–2025)[48]
- Harriet Hageman, WY-AL (2023–present)[47]
- Organizations
Ken Bogner
- Executive branch officials
- Thomas Homan, acting Director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (2017–2018)[47]
Joel Krautter
Declined to endorse
- U.S. representatives
- Matt Rosendale, MT-02 (2021–2025)[47]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Elsie Arntzen (R) | $871,444[d] | $805,097 | $66,347 |
| Kenneth Bogner (R) | $54,359 | $43,425 | $10,933 |
| Troy Downing (R) | $1,818,816[e] | $1,383,494 | $435,322 |
| Ric Holden (R) | $49,248[f] | $46,540 | $2,708 |
| Joel Krautter (R) | $76,533[g] | $67,136 | $9,397 |
| Denny Rehberg (R) | $601,991[h] | $453,928 | $148,063 |
| Stacy Zinn (R) | $41,460 | $3,091 | $38,369 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[50] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Elsie Arntzen |
Kenneth Bogner |
Troy Downing |
Ric Holden |
Denny Rehberg |
Stacy Zinn |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[51][E] | May 8–9, 2024 | 410 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 5% | 4% | 28% | 2% | 12% | 8% | 3%[i] | 40% |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy[52][F] | April 14–17, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 10% | – | 38% | – | 26% | – | – | 27% |
| Cygnal (R)[53][E] | April 15–16, 2024 | 415 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 7% | 4% | 21% | 1% | 11% | 3% | 3%[j] | 51% |
| Moore Information[54][G] | February 1, 2024 | 500 (LV) | – | 5% | 3% | 16% | 2% | 26% | 2% | 9%[k] | 37% |
Results
Downing
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Rehberg
- 20–30%
Bogner
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Holden
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Troy Downing | 36,269 | 36.12% | |
| Republican | Denny Rehberg | 17,182 | 17.11% | |
| Republican | Stacy Zinn | 13,581 | 13.53% | |
| Republican | Elsie Arntzen | 9,468 | 9.43% | |
| Republican | Kenneth Bogner | 9,026 | 8.99% | |
| Republican | Ric Holden | 7,108 | 7.08% | |
| Republican | Joel Krautter | 3,432 | 3.42% | |
| Republican | Kyle Austin | 3,177 | 3.16% | |
| Republican | Ed Walker (withdrawn) | 1,168 | 1.16% | |
| Total votes | 100,411 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Nominee
- John Driscoll, former Public Service Commissioner and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2008[4]
Eliminated in primary
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ming Cabrera (D) | $60,007[l] | $41,424 | $18,582 |
| Kevin Hamm (D) | $62,689 | $57,628 | $5,061 |
| Steve Held (D) | $86,570[m] | $67,945 | $18,624 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[50] | |||
Results
Driscoll
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Held
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Cabrera
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Driscoll | 13,420 | 33.31% | |
| Democratic | Steve Held | 10,649 | 26.43% | |
| Democratic | Ming Cabrera | 8,408 | 20.87% | |
| Democratic | Kevin Hamm | 7,813 | 19.39% | |
| Total votes | 40,290 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Solid R | February 2, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[27] | Solid R | September 15, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Safe R | February 23, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[29] | Safe R | September 7, 2023 |
| CNalysis[30] | Solid R | November 16, 2023 |
Polling
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Troy Downing | 181,832 | 65.73% | |
| Democratic | John Driscoll | 93,713 | 33.87% | |
| Write-in | 1,107 | 0.40% | ||
| Total votes | 276,652 | 100.00% | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
By county
| County[38][57] | Troy Downing Republican |
John Driscoll Democratic |
Write-in Various |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Big Horn | 2,115 | 47.83% | 2,305 | 52.13% | 2 | 0.05% | -190 | -4.30% | 4,422 |
| Blaine | 1,491 | 49.92% | 1,414 | 47.34% | 82 | 2.75% | 77 | 2.58% | 2,987 |
| Broadwater | 3,833 | 81.14% | 886 | 18.76% | 5 | 0.11% | 2,947 | 62.38% | 4,724 |
| Carbon | 4,919 | 67.86% | 2,314 | 31.92% | 16 | 0.22% | 2,605 | 35.94% | 7,249 |
| Carter | 774 | 92.25% | 65 | 7.75% | 0 | 0.00% | 709 | 84.51% | 839 |
| Cascade | 23,122 | 62.53% | 13,725 | 37.12% | 131 | 0.35% | 9,397 | 25.41% | 36,978 |
| Chouteau | 1,963 | 68.33% | 909 | 31.64% | 1 | 0.03% | 1,054 | 36.69% | 2,873 |
| Custer | 4,293 | 75.34% | 1,374 | 24.11% | 31 | 0.54% | 2,919 | 51.23% | 5,698 |
| Daniels | 780 | 83.87% | 150 | 16.13% | 0 | 0.00% | 630 | 67.74% | 930 |
| Dawson | 3,628 | 80.09% | 860 | 18.98% | 42 | 0.93% | 2,768 | 61.10% | 4,530 |
| Fallon | 1,299 | 89.03% | 156 | 10.69% | 4 | 0.27% | 1,143 | 78.34% | 1,459 |
| Fergus | 5,132 | 77.37% | 1,482 | 22.34% | 19 | 0.29% | 3,650 | 55.03% | 6,633 |
| Garfield | 737 | 95.59% | 33 | 4.28% | 1 | 0.13% | 704 | 91.31% | 771 |
| Golden Valley | 448 | 86.49% | 70 | 13.51% | 0 | 0.00% | 378 | 72.97% | 518 |
| Hill | 3,904 | 58.57% | 2,719 | 40.79% | 43 | 0.65% | 1,185 | 17.78% | 6,666 |
| Jefferson | 5,685 | 69.19% | 2,506 | 30.50% | 26 | 0.32% | 3,179 | 38.69% | 8,217 |
| Judith Basin | 1,091 | 81.12% | 248 | 18.44% | 6 | 0.45% | 843 | 62.68% | 1,345 |
| Lewis and Clark | 22,256 | 53.81% | 18,845 | 45.56% | 258 | 0.62% | 3,411 | 8.25% | 41,359 |
| Liberty | 767 | 78.67% | 207 | 21.23% | 1 | 0.10% | 560 | 57.44% | 975 |
| McCone | 928 | 87.14% | 132 | 12.39% | 5 | 0.47% | 796 | 74.74% | 1,065 |
| Meagher | 922 | 79.41% | 239 | 20.59% | 0 | 0.00% | 683 | 58.83% | 1,161 |
| Musselshell | 2,574 | 86.90% | 388 | 13.10% | 0 | 0.00% | 2,186 | 73.80% | 2,962 |
| Park | 6,230 | 54.07% | 5,255 | 45.60% | 38 | 0.33% | 975 | 8.46% | 11,523 |
| Petroleum | 289 | 88.92% | 36 | 11.08% | 0 | 0.00% | 253 | 77.85% | 325 |
| Phillips | 1,797 | 83.04% | 364 | 16.82% | 3 | 0.14% | 1,433 | 66.22% | 2,164 |
| Pondera (part) | 1,473 | 75.65% | 474 | 24.35% | 0 | 0.00% | 999 | 51.31% | 1,947 |
| Powder River | 959 | 88.31% | 127 | 11.69% | 0 | 0.00% | 832 | 76.61% | 1,086 |
| Prairie | 560 | 83.21% | 113 | 16.79% | 0 | 0.00% | 447 | 66.42% | 673 |
| Richland | 4,372 | 84.76% | 782 | 15.16% | 4 | 0.08% | 3,590 | 69.60% | 5,158 |
| Roosevelt | 1,980 | 51.48% | 1,864 | 48.47% | 2 | 0.05% | 116 | 3.02% | 3,846 |
| Rosebud | 2,484 | 67.96% | 1,163 | 31.82% | 8 | 0.22% | 1,321 | 36.14% | 3,655 |
| Sheridan | 1,340 | 73.34% | 481 | 26.33% | 6 | 0.33% | 859 | 47.02% | 1,827 |
| Stillwater | 4,804 | 82.18% | 1,042 | 17.82% | 0 | 0.00% | 3,762 | 64.35% | 5,846 |
| Sweet Grass | 1,833 | 77.80% | 521 | 22.11% | 2 | 0.08% | 1,312 | 55.69% | 2,356 |
| Teton | 2,592 | 73.51% | 923 | 26.18% | 11 | 0.31% | 1,669 | 47.33% | 3,526 |
| Toole | 1,601 | 79.65% | 406 | 20.20% | 3 | 0.15% | 1,195 | 59.45% | 2,010 |
| Treasure | 381 | 86.59% | 59 | 13.41% | 0 | 0.00% | 322 | 73.18% | 440 |
| Valley | 3,030 | 75.92% | 951 | 23.83% | 10 | 0.25% | 2,079 | 52.09% | 3,991 |
| Wheatland | 873 | 81.21% | 196 | 18.23% | 6 | 0.56% | 677 | 62.98% | 1,075 |
| Wibaux | 459 | 86.28% | 70 | 13.16% | 3 | 0.56% | 389 | 73.12% | 532 |
| Yellowstone | 52,114 | 64.89% | 27,859 | 34.69% | 338 | 0.42% | 24,255 | 30.20% | 80,311 |
| Totals | 181,832 | 65.73% | 93,713 | 33.87% | 1,107 | 0.40% | 88,119 | 31.85% | 276,652 |
See also
Notes
- $76,300 of this total was self-funded by Todd
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Undecided" with 4%
- $750,000 of this total was self-funded by Arntzen
- $1,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Downing
- $32,072 of this total was self-funded by Holden
- $6,240 of this total was self-funded by Krautter
- $450,000 of this total was self-funded by Rehberg
- Joel Krautter with 2%; Kyle Austin with 1%; Ed Walker with 0%
- Joel Krautter with 2%; Kyle Austin with 1; Ed Walker with 0%
- Joel Krautter and Ed Walker with 1%; "Other" with 7%
- $2,740 of this total was self-funded by Cabrera
- $45,000 of this total was self-funded by Held
- Metzger (I) with 4%; Neill (D) with 3%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Tranel's campaign
- Poll sponsored by the Congressional Leadership Fund
- Poll sponsored by Inside Elections
- Poll sponsored by Elect Principled Veterans Fund, which supports Downing's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Downing's campaign
- Poll sponsored by supporters of Rehberg's campaign