2014 Ontario general election
Canadian provincial general election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
General elections were held in Ontario, Canada on June 12, 2014, to elect the members of the 41st Parliament of Ontario. The Liberal Party won a majority of seats in the legislature, allowing its leader, Kathleen Wynne, to continue as premier, moving from a minority to majority government. This was the Liberals' fourth consecutive win since 2003 and an improvement from their performance in the 2011 election.[2] The Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak were returned to the official opposition; following the election loss, Hudak announced his resignation as Progressive Conservative leader.[3] The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath remained in third place, albeit with an improved share of the popular vote.
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June 12, 2014
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107 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario 54 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 51.3% ( 3.1pp)[1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The election was called on May 2, 2014, by Lieutenant Governor David Onley,[4] upon the recommendation of Wynne following the announcement that the NDP, whose support was critical to the survival of the Liberals' minority government in the Legislative Assembly, would vote against the Liberals' proposed budget.[5]
With the election, Wynne became the first woman and the first openly gay person to lead a party to a majority victory in an Ontario general election.[6][7]
Context - 40th Parliament
The preceding election held in October 2011 reduce the incumbent Liberal ministry led by Dalton McGuinty from a government with a comfortable 35-seat majority to a minority government that was one seat short, the first minority government in almost a quarter-century.
One of the most contentious issues during that election campaign was a mid-campaign decision to scrap unpopular gas plants being constructed in Mississauga and Oakville. The move was viewed by many as cynically made to improve the Liberal Party's chances of retaining the five ridings it held in the area. Whether that was the motivation or not, the Liberal did retained those seats.
The political dynamic of the legislature changed significantly by the resulted minority parliament. The government was forced to seek support from opposition members on a vote-by-vote basis. The government's control over parliamentary schedule and work of committees were significantly diminished. It could not stop committees from issuing order compelling sensitive documents. Emboldened by their newfound ability embarrassed the government, the opposition demanded all documents related to the gas plant cancellation be released to the public.[8] The released document revealed the cost of the cancellation was estimated to be $950 million to $1.1 billion over approximately 20 years.[9][10] In the fall of 2012. Energy minister Chris Bentley was cited in contempt of upon reports of an additional 20,000 documents relating to the gas plants not having been release.[11]
Two veterans of the legislature, former finance minister Greg Sorbara and former PC Deputy Premier Elizabeth Witmer, resigned in the first year of the 40th parliament. The Liberals had hoped to regain their majority by winning Whitmer's seat for Kitchener—Waterloo. The riding was targeted by various teachers unions in protest of the government imposing contracts and suspending their right to strike.[12] After an exceptionally acrimonious byelection campaign, the seat went to the NDP, with the Liberals placing third.[13]
McGuinty unexpectedly announced on October 15, 2012, that he was ending the legislative session by proroguing the legislature and that he would resign as premier as soon as the Liberal Party chose his successor, in January 2013.[14][15] The ensuing Ontario Liberal leadership contest, the first such contest held by a governing party since 1984, resulted in Kathleen Wynne being elected the first woman and the first LGBT person serve as Premier of Ontario.
The march to the 2014 election
The following table lists events most directly relevant in setting the dynamic of the 2014 general election.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| October 6, 2011 | Election held for members of the Ontario Legislature in the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario. |
| Spring of 2012 | Finance minister Dwight Duncan tabled the government's first minority budget in March, a budget the government could not approve on its own. PC leader Tim Hudak's outright rejection of it[16] meant some concession to the NDP caucus would be required. NDP Leader Andrea Horwath makes several demands in exchange for her party to support but secured little concession. In June, Premier Dalton McGuinty threatened to call another election if the budget is not passed,[17] at which point the NDP opted to abstain, avoiding a summer election.[18] |
| September 6, 2012 | Two byelection held, future party leader Steven Del Duca succeeding his mentor former finance minister Greg Sorbora, while NDP secure an upset victory, picking up the seat of former PC deputy premier Elizabeth Witmer following an exceptionally acrimonious local campaign. |
| October 15, 2012 | Dalton McGuinty announced his resignation as Premier of Ontario and as Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[19] |
| January 26, 2013 | Kathleen Wynne elected Ontario Liberal leader at the party's leadership convention.[20] This would be the last delegated convention in Canada where the elected leader also automatically become a first minister. |
| February 11, 2013 | Premier Dalton McGuinty formally tendered the resignation of the McGuinty ministry, and was succeeded by the Wynne ministry. Wynne sworn in as Ontario's first female premier and the first out LGBT person to serve as first minister in Canada. [21] |
| February 20, 2013 | The 40th parliament reconvened for the opening of its second session, with the government at a three-seat deficit from majority following the retirement of finance minister Dwight Duncan and former energy minister Chris Bentley. |
| June 2013 | The Wynne ministry passed its first budget with the support of the NDP. |
| August 1, 2013 | By-elections was held in five electoral districts all previously held by minister of the McGuinty ministry, the most by-election contests held on a single day since 1984[a], and the most byelection contests to be defended by a party in Ontario history.[b] The Liberals lost three of the five seats, losing Duncan's Windsor seat and Bentley's London seat to the NDP by wide margin. |
| May 2, 2014 | With both Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak and NDP leader Andrea Horwath having signaled their caucus' intention to vote against Wynne ministry's second budget, Wynne pre-empted the confidence vote by seeking dissolution of the legislature from Lieutenant Governor David Onley. Writs of elections were issued for general election to be held on June 12, 2014.[22] |
| June 12, 2014 | The Liberal Party wins a majority, claiming 58 ridings in the Ontario election.[23] Tim Hudak announced that he is stepping down from his leadership of the PC party.[24] Later in June a judicial recount award the Thornhill seat, declared for the Liberal on election night,[25] to the Progressive Conservatives.[26] |
Changes in party standing and membership
| Party | 2011 | Decreases  |
Increases |
2014 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elxn | Rsg | death | Cross | Held | Gain | diss. | |||
| Liberal | 53 | (8) | 3 | 48 | |||||
| Progressive Conservative | 37 | (2) | 1 | 1 | 37 | ||||
| New Democratic | 17 | 4 | 21 | ||||||
| Vacant | – | 10 | (4) | (5) | 1 | ||||
| Total | 107 | 107 | |||||||
| Electoral district | Before | After  seat changed hands | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Reason | Member exited | New Member | Date | Event | Note | |||
| Kitchener—Waterloo | April 27, 2012 | Resignation[c] | Elizabeth Witmer | Catherine Fife | Sep 6, 2012 | byelection | | ||
| Vaughan | August 1, 2012 | Resignation[d] | Greg Sorbara | Steven Del Duca | Sep 6, 2012 | byelection | |||
| London West | Feb 14, 2013 | Resignation[e][27] | Chris Bentley | Peggy Sattler | August 1, 2013 | byelection | [28] | ||
| Windsor—Tecumseh | Feb 14, 2013 | Resignation [e] | Dwight Duncan | Percy Hatfield | August 1, 2013 | byelection | | ||
| Ottawa South | June 12, 2013 | Resignation[e][29] | Dalton McGuinty | John Fraser | August 1, 2013 | byelection | |||
| Scarborough—Guildwood | June 27, 2013 | Resignation[30] | Margarett Best | Mitzie Hunter | August 1, 2013 | byelection | |||
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | July 2, 2013 | Resignation[f] | Laurel Broten | Doug Holyday | August 1, 2013 | byelection | | ||
| Niagara Falls | Sep 24, 2013 | Resignation[32] | Kim Craitor | Wayne Gates | Feb 13, 2014 | byelection | [33] | ||
| Thornhill | Dec 31, 2013 | Resignation[34] | Peter Shurman | Gila Martow | Feb 13, 2014 | byelection | |||
| Brampton—Springdale | March 25, 2014 | Resignation[g] | Linda Jeffrey | Vacant at dissolution | n/a | ||||
- to fill vacancies left by four Liberals, including future Deputy Prime Minister Sheila Copps, and NDP leader Michael Cassidy who left to seek federal seats in the 1984 Canadian federal election.
- Discounting ministerial byelections, which were often held on a single day and were often not contested by the opposition parties.
- Upon appointed chair of the Workplace Safety & Insurance Board
- Retirement from politics
- retirement from politics upon resignation of the McGuinty ministry
- Resigned to seek election as Mayor of Brampton[35]
Incumbents declined seeking re-election
With numerous veterans of the McGuinty ministry having resigned during the 40th Parliament, the number of incumbent retiring at the general election was relatively small. Seven incumbent MPPs opted not to seek re-election in 2014. Five Liberals, four having served in the McGuinty ministry, announced their intention not to seek re-election months in advance of the general election, though there were reported effort in asking some of them to reconsider. Former Conservative minister Frank Klees, a one-time leadership rival to Conservative leader Tim Hudak, and long time MPP John O'Toole, father of then federal minister and future national Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole rounded out the list of seven.
These retirement resulted in three seats changing hands. The governing Liberals picked up the seats of both retiring conservatives, both located in the Greater Toronto Area, in upset victories. While not unexpected, their loss of Sudbury, held by former minister Rick Bartolucci since 1995, was viewed as proof point for the star power of incumbency especially in communities outside of Toronto and Ottawa. The electoral district of Sudbury and the Liberals pursuit in building incumbency advantage would become a major storyline in the 41st parliament.
| Electoral district | Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee | New MPP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham | John O'Toole[36] | Mike Patrick | Granville Anderson | ||
| Etobicoke Centre | Donna Cansfield[37] | Yvan Baker | Yvan Baker | ||
| Kingston and the Islands | John Gerretsen[38] | Sophie Kiwala | Sophie Kiwala | ||
| Kitchener Centre | John Milloy[39] | Daiene Vernile | Daiene Vernile | ||
| Newmarket—Aurora | Frank Klees[40][41] | Jane Twinney | Chris Ballard | ||
| Ottawa—Orléans | Phil McNeely[42] | Marie-France Lalonde | Marie-France Lalonde | ||
| Sudbury | Rick Bartolucci[43] | Andrew Olivier | Joe Cimino | ||
All 21 NDP incumbents, along with 43 incumbent Liberals and 35 incumbent Progressive Conservatives, stood in the General Election.
Top level summary of election outcome
This table tracked the key changes in parliarmary dynicmic in the lead up to the election, and provide a summary of the election results for the four main parties, together having captured 98.5% of the popular votes. More detailed results and more extensive analysis can be found in sections below, following the section covering the election campaign.
| ↓ | |||||||||
| 58 | 28 | 21 | |||||||
| Liberal | PC | NDP | |||||||
| Party | Leader | 40th Parliament | 41st | 2014 pop. votes | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 Elxn |
2012 Oct |
2013 Feb |
2014 Feb |
dis. | 2014 Elxn | Δ | # | # Δ | % | % Δ | |||
| Liberal | Kathleen Wynne | 53 | 53 | 51 | 49 | 48 | 58 | 5 | 1,863,974 | 238,872 | 38.67 | 1.02 | |
| Progressive Conservative | Tim Hudak | 37 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 28 | 9 |
1,505,436 | 24,640 | 31.23 | 4.22 | |
| New Democratic | Andrea Horwath | 17 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 4 | 1,144,822 | 168,573 | 23.75 | 1.01 | |
| Green | Mike Schreiner | – | – | – |  | 235,911 | 109,890 | 4.89 | 1.97 | ||||
| Other | (Sum of)[a] | – | – | [b]2 | [b]2 | [b] 1 | – | |
70,404 | 11,470 | 1.46 | 0.22 | |
| Total Valid | 4,820,547 | 504,165 |
|||||||||||
| Rejected/Unmarked | 35,009 | 16,909 | [c]0.72 | 0.30 | |||||||||
| Declined | 29,937 | 27,602 | [c]0.61 | 0.05 | |||||||||
| References: | Turnout | 4,885,493 | 548,676 |
51.29 | 3.11 | ||||||||
| Elections Ontario [44] | Registered Voters | 9,526,031 | 525,656 |
5.84 | |||||||||
Campaign
Issues
Economy
Unemployment in Ontario was a major political issue. In particular, the manufacturing sector had shrunk by about 30% or more than 300,000 jobs since 2002.[45]
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario proposed a plan called "Million Jobs Plan", outlining their strategy for job creation and economic growth. By reducing tax, government services, energy costs and regulations the PCs projected to create a cumulative 507,488 jobs over eight years.[46] The plan also called for the reduction of 100,000 civil service jobs. Economists and critics noted fundamental mathematical errors with the PCs' projections. They held, even if the PCs' own data were correctly tabulated, only 50,000 extra jobs would be created (in addition to the 500,000 that would be created anyway without any policy change).[47]
The Ontario Liberal Party proposed the 10 year "Jobs and Investment Plan", which proposed infrastructure investments as their main strategy to create jobs.[48]
The Ontario New Democratic Party platform called for targeted tax credits and incentives to encourage job creation.[49]
The Green Party of Ontario policy proposal stated that it would "focus on your job by lowering payroll taxes for small businesses" as well as investing in transit infrastructure and subsidising energy-saving home improvements.[50]
The Ontario Libertarian Party called for mass privatization, lower taxes and general deregulation, eliminating many business requirements such as permitting, insurance and certification that they considered to be interfering with job creation.[51] Their platform called for government spending to be limited to "only core functions of government; defending life, liberty, and property"[52] and as such would have eliminated industry subsidies or incentives of any kind, particularly in the energy sector.[53]
The Communist Party of Ontario called for raising the minimum wage to $19/hr as well as introducing a guaranteed annual income, nationalization of the domestic steel industry, and investments in public housing, infrastructure and social programs, while shifting taxes from lower to higher income-earners and businesses.[54]
Transit
Due to rapid urban and suburban expansion in southern Ontario, traffic congestion had been increasing greatly. A 2013 study by the CD Howe Institute determined that it was costing $7.5-11 billion annually for the economy of Toronto alone.[55][56]
The Liberals promised $29 billion in infrastructure spending, $15 billion of which would go towards building new transit (mostly LRT) lines in the GTHA, based on the outline of Metrolinx's The Big Move plan, as well as an LRT in Ottawa.[57][58] A high-speed rail line crossing the province from the southeast into Quebec was also planned. The PCs promised to finish building the Eglinton Crosstown, but cancel all the other planned lines, and instead focus on quickly expanding GO service.[59] The NDP plan was similar to the Liberal plan, but included an extra $1 billion to get certain projects built faster.[57]
Endorsements
Media endorsements
The following media outlets made endorsements during the campaign:
| Liberal | Progressive Conservative
|
New Democratic Party
Explicitly not endorsing any party
|
Public figure endorsements
- Deputy Mayor of Toronto, and acting mayor, Norm Kelly endorsed Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne.[75]
- Mayor of Mississauga, Hazel McCallion endorsed Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne.[76]
- Mayor of Kitchener, Carl Zehr endorsed Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne.[77]
Elections Results
| Party | Party leader | Cand. | Seats | Popular vote[78][79] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | dis. | 2014 | |
# | |
% | | ||||
| Liberal | Kathleen Wynne | 107 | 53 | 48 | 58 | 5 | 1,863,974 | 238,872 | 38.67 | 1.02 | |
| Progressive Conservative | Tim Hudak | 107 | 37 | 37 | 28 | 9 | 1,505,436 | 24,640 | 31.23 | 4.22 | |
| New Democratic | Andrea Horwath | 107 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 4 | 1,144,822 | 168,573 | 23.75 | 1.01 | |
| Green | Mike Schreiner | 107 | – | – | – | – | 235,911 | 109,890 | 4.89 | 1.97 | |
| Libertarian | Allen Small | 74 | 37,696 | 18,249 | 0.78 | 0.42 | |||||
| Freedom | Paul McKeever | 42 | 11,835 | 2,677 | 0.25 | 0.06 | |||||
| Family Coalition | Eric Ames (interim) | 6 | 4,287 | -5,237 | 0.09 | 0.13 | |||||
| None of the Above | Greg Vezina | 8 | 4,092 | – | 0.08 | – | |||||
| Independent | 14 | 3,816 | -4,483 | 0.08 | 0.10 | ||||||
| Communist | Elizabeth Rowley | 11 | 2,081 | 919 | 0.04 | 0.02 | |||||
| Canadians' Choice | Bahman Yazdanfar | 4 | 1287 | 1,131 | 0.03 | 0.03 | |||||
| Vegan Environmental | Paul Figueiras | 5 | 871 | 500 | 0.02 | 0.01 | |||||
| People's Political | Kevin Clarke | 5 | 866 | – | 0.02 | 0.01 | |||||
| Northern Ontario Heritage | Edward Deibel | 3 | 834 | 195 | 0.02 | 0.00 | |||||
| Special Needs | Danish Ahmed | 3 | 714 | 47 | 0.01 | 0.00 | |||||
| Confederation of the Regions | vacant | 2 | 549 | -10 | 0.01 | 0.00 | |||||
| Trillium | Bob Yaciuk | 2 | 368 | – | 0.01 | – | |||||
| Equal Parenting | Dennis Valenta | 2 | 362 | – | 0.01 | – | |||||
| Socialist | Michael Laxer | 2 | 296 | -151 | 0.01 | 0.00 | |||||
| Moderate | Yuri Duboisky | 2 | 268 | – | 0.01 | – | |||||
| Pauper | John Turmel | 3 | 182 | -344 | 0.00 | 0.01 | |||||
| Total Valid | 4,820,547 | 504,165 |
|||||||||
| Rejected/Unmarked | 35,009 | 16,909 | [d]0.72 | 0.30 | |||||||
| Declined | 29,937 | 27,602 | [d]0.61 | 0.05 | |||||||
| References: | Turnout | 4,885,493 | 548,676 |
51.29 | 3.11 | ||||||
| Elections Ontario [44] | Registered Voters | 9,526,031 | 525,656 |
5.84 | |||||||
Polling results released by various polling firms projected a competitive election for much of the campaign period. However, as the campaign entered its final week, most reports gave the Liberal a small lead, and the final polling results released by all polling firms with established media presence put the Liberals a few points ahead of the Progressive Conservative for voting intention. Therefore, few were greatly surprised by the overall elections results reported on election night. With all polls having reported, the preliminary election night results shows Liberal Party having won 59 seats, giving them a ten-seats majority over the Conservative Party and the NDP respectively with 27 seats and 21 seats.
Two locales of recent by-election losses gave the Liberals particular reasons to celebrate. In the rematch in Etobicoke—Lakeshore, Peter Milczyn overturned 4-point byelection defeat less than a year earlier to a comfortable 13-point victory, ousting his former city council colleague Doug Holyday. The re-match in Thornhill remained too close to call throughout the evening. The last riding outstanding for the entire province on election night, it was declared for Liberal Sandra Yeung-Rocco, who suffered a 6-points, 1800-vote by-election defeat just four months, with an 85-vote margin.
The celebration was however short-lived, with a transposition error being discovered during the poll report tabulation Elections Ontario discovering a major transcription error the following days, which gave a 85-vote victory back to PC's Gila Martow. Given the dramatic reverse of fortune, the Ontario Court of Justice granted a recount for Thornhill despite the margin being well outside of the normal range for recount to be granted.[80] The recount confirmed Martow's victory, and she was seated on July 8, 2014, a week later than other MPPs.[81]
Seats changed hands, incumbent defeated
When compared to the previous general election in 2011, the 2014 election saw control for 17 seats shifting from one party to another. The Liberals and the NDP scored gains against each others, while both also claimed seats from the Progressive Conservatives. The PC was the singular loser in this general election, having lost seven seats to the Liberals, and two the NDP when compared to 2011, and was unable to retain the one seat they gained in the byelection. Interestingly, of the eleven seats the PC Party gained in 2011, nine remained in the PC column in 2014, losing only Barrie and Northumberland. Northumberland was notable as it was recaptured by former member Lou Rinaldi, a conscientious constituency worker who maintained heavy presence in the community despite the defeated. Other than those two seats, the other six seats lost were all seats firmly held since at least the start of the Harris ministry. In the case of Burlington, the seat was in the Conservative column since the end of WWII.
Four of the 17 seat transfers, three from the Liberals (London West, Niagara Falls, Windsor—Tecumseh) and one from Progressive Conservative (Kitchener—Waterloo ) all gains secured by the NDP, were already actualized earlier through by-elections, and the NDP were able to retain them and further build their margins of victory. As noted in the last section, Peter Milczyn recaptured Etobicoke—Lakeshore, the one seat the Liberals lost to the Progressive Conservative in 2013. According, only fourteen seats actually change hands at the general election.
In the general election, the NDP captured two seats from the Liberals and one from the Progressive Conservatives. Following their massive 40-point by-election wins in Windsor Tecumseh in 2013, NDP Lisa Gretzky met a surprisingly resilient campaign by Liberal children and youth services minister Teresa Piruzza, captured the seat with less than three points and causing the only casualty for the Wynne ministry. With little fanfare, the NDP also captured Oshawa, a constituency with symbolic significance given the heavy presence of unionized autoworkers. Having endured repeated prediction of political demise and survived intense challenges by various prominent labour leaders with national profile, Progressive Conservative Jerry Ouellette, a one time cabinet minister, finally succumbed to electoral defeat in the hands of school teacher Jennifer French. The third victory came from Sudbury, an open seat following the retirement of long time Liberal minister Rick Bartolucci.
The NDP however lost three downtown Toronto seats to the Liberal Party, two of them held since their time in government in the early 1990s. The bigger than expected defeat of Rosario Marchese, a one-time minister in the Rae ministry, foreshadowed the massive Liberal victory in a federal byelection held in the same district a few weeks later. In Beaches-East York the popular former East York mayor Michael Prue put up a much more vigorous fight, losing the long held NDP riding by a 1-point margin.
- Same editorial printed in several papers
- endorsing a minority government
- Identical editorial printed in multiple cities
- % of total voter turnout
- Recaptured of seat lost in 2013 by-election
- Seat changed hand via by-election prior to 2014 general election
- previously defeated former member recaptured seat
| Party | Total seats at start of 40th Parliament |
Gain from (loss to) | Total seats at start of 41st Parliament | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Progressive Conservative | New Democratic | |||||||
| Liberal | 53 | 7 | 3 | (5) | 58 | ||||
| Progressive Conservative | 37 | (7) | (2) | 28 | |||||
| New Democratic | 17 | 5 | (3) | 2 | 21 | ||||
| Total | 107 | 5 | (10) | 9 | 3 | (7) | 107 | ||
| Party | Held (by same party as 2011) | Gained (changed hands since 2011) | Total seats at start of 41st Parliament | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incumbent re-elected | New member retained | Reversed by-elxn loss |
Ousted incumbent | Captured open seat | Byelxn gain retained | |||
| Liberal | 42 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 58 | ||
| Progressive Conservative | 28 | 28 | ||||||
| New Democratic | 14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 21 | |||
| Total | 84 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 107 | |
Pairing off the top three parties, swings were calculated to be:
- PC to Liberal: 2.6%
- PC to NDP: 2.6%
- Liberal to NDP: insignificant
Marginal seats
The following seats had a margin of victory of less than 5 percentage points in the election:
| Marginal constituencies (Ontario general election, 2014)[82] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constituency | Rank of parties | Margins | Result | ||||
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 1st vs 2nd | 1st vs 3rd | |||
| Barrie | 40.7% | 36.1% | 16.3% | 4.6% | 24.4% | Lib gain | |
| Beaches—East York | 40.1% | 39.0% | 13.9% | 1.1% | 26.2% | Lib gain | |
| Durham | 36.5% | 34.3% | 24.1% | 2.2% | 12.4% | Lib gain | |
| Kitchener—Conestoga | 36.4% | 33.3% | 21.2% | 3.1% | 15.2% | PC hold | |
| Parkdale—High Park | 40.8% | 40.0% | 12.8% | 0.8% | 28.0% | NDP hold | |
| Sudbury | 42.2% | 39.4% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 28.4% | NDP gain | |
| Thornhill | 44.0% | 43.8% | 8.1% | 0.2% | 35.9% | PC hold | |
| Windsor West | 41.4% | 38.5% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 27.0% | NDP gain | |
Vote efficiency analysis
| Party | Votes | Seats | votes per seat (variance) | Avg votes received | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| all | elected | defeated | ||||||||
| Liberal | 1,863,974 | 58 | 32,137.9 | -28.6% | 17,420.3 | 21873.6 | 12149.1 | |||
| Progressive Conservative | 1,505,436 | 28 | 53,765.6 | +19.3% | 14,069.5 | 20958.0 | 11628.0 | |||
| New Democratic | 1,144,822 | 21 | 54,515.3 | +21.0% | 10,699.3 | 19283.8 | 8603.0 | |||
| Green | 235,911 | 0 | ∞ | 2204.8 | n/a | 2204.8 | ||||
| Others | 70,404 | 0 | ∞ | 376.5 | n/a | 376.5 | ||||
| Total | 4,820,547 | 107 | 45,051.84 | - | 7,838.3 | 21,125.7 | 5,039.6 | |||
Summary analysis
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Principal races
| Party in 1st place | Party in 2nd place | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib | PC | NDP | |||
| Liberal | – | 43 | 15 | 58 | |
| Progressive Conservative | 22 | – | 6 | 28 | |
| New Democratic | 14 | 7 | – | 21 | |
| Total | 36 | 50 | 21 | 107 | |
| Parties | Seats | |
|---|---|---|
| █ Liberal | █ Progressive Conservative | 65 |
| █ Liberal | █ New Democratic | 29 |
| █ Progressive Conservative | █ New Democratic | 13 |
| Total | 107 | |
2011
2014
Results by region
Ontario does not have official regional divisions that are universally accepted or broadly applied. Different regional definition are used informally by different organizations, media outlets and even different ministries within the Government of Ontario. Such definitions also evolve over time to reflect shift of population and economic growth. For the analysis in this section, the province is divided into five region – North, East, GTA, Toronto and Southwest, each roughly corresponding to a postal region. Specific regional and sub-regional assignments of electoral districts are done informally for ease of analysis, and are listed in the tables in the #Results by electoral district section.
The province-wide results had the Liberals gaining 5 seats and the NDP gaining four both from the PC. The regional results gave a more nuance picture that highlight some longer term trends. The Liberals make significant gains in GTA, but lost significant grounds in Southwest and in the North.
| Region | Southwest | GTA | Toronto | East | North | Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # of Seats (% of Legislature) |
23 (21.5%) | 34 (31.7%) |
22 (20.6%) | 17 (15.9%) |
11 (10.3%) | 107 | |||||||
| Liberal | 5 | 2 | 21 | 4 |
20 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
3 | 1 | 58 | 5 | |
| PC | 12 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | | 28 | 9 | |||
| NDP | 6 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 4 | |||
| Region | Southwest | GTA | Toronto | East | North | Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # of Seats (% of Legislature) |
23 (21.5%) | 34 (31.7%) |
22 (20.6%) | 17 (15.9%) |
11 (10.3%) | 107 | |||||||
| Share of votes from all electoral districts, by region [a] | |||||||||||||
| Liberal | 28.42 | 4.53 | 40.05 | 2.52 |
49.08 | 1.76 | 39.19 | 2.63 |
33.89 | 3.49 | 38.67 | 1.02 | |
| PC | 33.83 | 6.28 | 32.53 | 5.06 | 23.04 | 0.81 |
37.98 | 4.18 | 20.87 | 7.35 | 31.23 | 4.22 | |
| NDP | 29.37 | 7.03 | 21.74 | 1.14 | 22.42 | 3.51 |
16.66 | 0.64 | 38.83 | 0.92 | 23.75 | 1.01 | |
| Green | 6.67 | 3.32 | 4.14 | 1.30 | 3.89 | 1.53 |
5.24 | 2.12 | 5.10 | 2.19 | 4.89 | 1.97 | |
| Sum of tallies from all electoral districts, by region | |||||||||||||
| Liberal | 294,243 | 687,532 | 439,900 | 333,430 | 108,869 | 1,863,974 | |||||||
| PC | 350,206 | 558,518 | 206,504 | 323,151 | 67,057 | 1,505,436 | |||||||
| NDP | 304,038 | 373,324 | 200,996 | 141,722 | 124,742 | 1,144,822 | |||||||
| Green | 69,037 | 71,005 | 34,879 | 44,604 | 16,386 | 235,911 | |||||||
| Total Valid | 1,035,315 | 1,716,862 | 896,360 | 850,771 | 321,239 | 4,820,547 | |||||||
| Party | Southwest - 23 | GTA - 34 | Toronto - 22 | East - 17 | North | Total | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest 10 |
Midwest 6 |
W-W 7 |
Ham & N 8 |
P&H 11 |
DYS 15 |
City 9 |
Metro 13 |
East 10 |
Ottawa 7 |
North 11 | |||||||||||||||
| Lib | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
10 | 2 | 9 | 3 |
7 | 3 | 13 | |
4 | 1 | 5 | |
3 | 1 | 58 | 5 | |
| PC | 4 | | 5 | | 3 | 2 | 1 | | 2 |
5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | |
2 | | 28 | 9 | ||||||
| NDP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 4 | |||||||||
| Party | Southwest - 23 | East - 17 | North | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest 10 |
Midwest 6 |
W-W 7 |
East 10 |
Ottawa 7 |
North 11 | ||||||||
| Lib | 22.92 | 10.90 | 28.66 | 1.03 |
35.20 | 0.72 |
34.94 | 2.20 | 44.63 | 3.13 |
33.89 | 3.49 | |
| PC | 29.91 | 5.26 | 41.84% | 4.67 | 32.51 | 8.99 | 40.54 | 4.80 | 34.72 | 3.33 |
20.87 | 7.35 | |
| NDP | 40.04 | 12.49 | 22.45 | 3.78 | 21.26 | 2.96 | 18.98 | 0.78 | 13.69 | 2.45 | 38.83 | 0.92 | |
| Green | 5.33 | 2.91 | 5.07 | 2.04 | 9.62 | 4.76 | 4.62 | 1.66 | 6.03 | 2.70 |
5.10 | 2.19 | |
| Sum of tallies from all electoral districts, by sub-region | |||||||||||||
| Liberal | 98,534 | 76,281 | 119,428 | 166,831 | 166,599 | 108,869 | |||||||
| PC | 128,580 | 111,334 | 110,292 | 193,577 | 129,574 | 67,057 | |||||||
| NDP | 172,163 | 59,745 | 72,130 | 90,629 | 51,093 | 124,742 | |||||||
| Green | 22,902 | 13,503 | 32,632 | 22,084 | 22,520 | 16,386 | |||||||
| Total Valid | 429,942 | 266,120 | 339,253 | 477,523 | 373,248 | 321,239 | |||||||
| Party | GTA - 34 | Toronto - 22 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ham & N 8 |
P&H 11 |
DYS 15 |
City 9 |
Metro 13 | |||||||
| Lib | 29.10 | 1.72 |
45.96 | 2.52 | 41.21 | 4.29 |
48.09 | 3.55 | 49.87 | 0.38 | |
| PC | 28.01 | 2.92 | 29.77 | 5.37 |
36.65 | 6.17 | 16.52 | 1.20 | 28.30 | 0.58 | |
| NDP | 36.60 | 2.45 | 18.72 | 1.45 |
16.67 | 0.83 | 28.63 | 7.25 | 17.42 | 0.71 | |
| Green | 4.70 | 2.31 | 3.41 | 0.85 | 4.37 | 1.10 | 4.98 | 2.04 | 3.02 | 1.10 | |
| Sum of tallies from all electoral districts, by sub-region | |||||||||||
| Liberal | 110,735 | 252,638 | 324,159 | 192,413 | 247,487 | ||||||
| PC | 106,621 | 163,605 | 288,292 | 66,074 | 140,430 | ||||||
| NDP | 139,306 | 102,889 | 131,129 | 114,532 | 86,464 | ||||||
| Green | 17,889 | 18,757 | 34,359 | 19,912 | 14,967 | ||||||
| Total Valid | 380,593 | 549,640 | 786,629 | 400,076 | 496,284 | ||||||
Strength Maps
Support for Liberal Party candidates by riding
Support for Conservative Party candidates by riding
Support for New Democratic Party candidates by riding
Support for Green Party candidates by riding
Electoral district results & analysis
Elected members, winning tallies, and margin of victory, by electoral district
Gained seat by defeating incumbent
Gained seat following incumbent's retirement
Held seat with new candidate
Reversed by-election loss
Former MPP re-gained seats lost previously
-B Gained/held seat previously via by-election
-O Gained/held open seat at the 2014 general election
| Electoral district | 2011 | Elected | Vote tally / share | Margin | Member | Region | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | # | % | % | # | % | elected | ||||||||
| Ajax—Pickering | Lib | Lib | Hold | 26,257 | 51.06 | 3.73 | 11,258 | 21.89 | Joe Dickson | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Algoma—Manitoulin | NDP | NDP | Hold | 14,171 | 53.41 | 8.89 | 7,667 | 28.90 | Michael Mantha | North | ||||
| Ancaster—Dundas—Flambor.—Westdale | Lib | Lib | Hold | 24,042 | 44.56 | 0.86 | 5,790 | 10.73 | Ted McMeekin | GTA (H&N) | ||||
| Barrie | PC | Lib | Gain | 19,916 | 40.69 | 5.88 | 2,249 | 4.60 | Ann Hoggarth | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Beaches—East York | NDP | Lib | Gain | 17,218 | 40.09 | 4.01 | 481 | 1.12 | Arthur Potts | Toronto (C) | ||||
| Bramalea—Gore—Malton | NDP | NDP | Hold | 23,519 | 44.32 | 6.16 | 5,646 | 10.64 | Jagmeet Singh | GTA (P&H) | ||||
| Brampton—Springdale | Lib | Lib | Hold-O | 16,927 | 40.06 | -4.36 | 3,414 | 8.08 | Harinder Malhi | GTA (P&H) | ||||
| Brampton West | Lib | Lib | Hold | 24,832 | 45.23 | 1.47 | 11,469 | 20.89 | Vic Dhillon | GTA (P&H) | ||||
| Brant | Lib | Lib | Hold | 19,396 | 37.63 | 0.55 | 3,949 | 7.66 | Dave Levac | SW (Mid) | ||||
| Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | PC | PC | Hold | 20,359 | 47.55 | 0.18 | 8,773 | 20.49 | Bill Walker | SW (Mid) | ||||
| Burlington | PC | Lib | Gain | 23,573 | 43.41 | 7.33 | 3,487 | 6.42 | Eleanor McMahon | GTA (P&H) | ||||
| Cambridge | PC | Lib | Gain | 18,763 | 38.93 | 5.85 | 3,069 | 6.37 | Kathryn McGarry | SW (W) | ||||
| Carleton—Mississippi Mills | PC | PC | Hold | 30,590 | 47.49 | -2.80 | 10,118 | 15.71 | Jack MacLaren | East (O) | ||||
| Chatham-Kent—Essex | PC | PC | Hold | 14,183 | 37.83 | -3.95 | 2,519 | 6.72 | Rick Nicholls | Southwest | ||||
| Davenport | NDP | Lib | Gain | 16,272 | 45.61 | 4.20 | 1,950 | 5.47 | Cristina Martins | Toronto (C) | ||||
| Don Valley East | Lib | Lib | Hold | 19,248 | 55.71 | 4.64 | 9,991 | 28.92 | Michael Coteau | Toronto (M) | ||||
| Don Valley West | Lib | Lib | Hold | 26,215 | 57.01 | -1.30 | 12,133 | 26.39 | Kathleen Wynne | Toronto (M) | ||||
| Dufferin—Caledon | PC | PC | Hold | 18,017 | 39.86 | -7.09 | 4,156 | 9.19 | Sylvia Jones | SW (W) | ||||
| Durham | PC | Lib | Gain-O | 19,816 | 36.45 | 7.10 | 1,176 | 2.16 | Granville Anderson | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Eglinton—Lawrence | Lib | Lib | Hold | 22,855 | 54.80 | 0.65 | 8,776 | 21.04 | Mike Colle | Toronto (C) | ||||
| Elgin—Middlesex—London | PC | PC | Hold | 20,946 | 46.36 | -1.50 | 8,912 | 19.72 | Jeff Yurek | Southwest | ||||
| Essex | NDP | NDP | Hold | 28,118 | 60.34 | 22.35 | 17,949 | 38.52 | Taras Natyshak | Southwest | ||||
| Etobicoke Centre | Lib | Lib | Hold-O | 23,848 | 50.28 | -1.21 | 8,328 | 17.56 | Yvan Baker | Toronto (M) | ||||
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | Lib | Lib | Hold-R | 24,311 | 47.49 | -3.54 | 6,724 | 13.13 | Peter Milczyn | Toronto (M) | ||||
| Etobicoke North | Lib | Lib | Hold | 12,168 | 44.90 | -3.55 | 5,065 | 18.69 | Shafiq Qaadri | Toronto (M) | ||||
| Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | Lib | Lib | Hold | 23,565 | 49.74 | 6.56 | 8,136 | 17.17 | Grant Crack | East | ||||
| Guelph | Lib | Lib | Hold | 22,014 | 41.52 | -0.92 | 10,966 | 20.68 | Liz Sandals | SW (W) | ||||
| Haldimand—Norfolk | PC | PC | Hold | 22,066 | 52.22 | -8.58 | 12,280 | 29.06 | Toby Barrett | SW (Mid) | ||||
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | PC | PC | Hold | 21,641 | 40.96 | -4.48 | 3,129 | 5.92 | Laurie Scott | East | ||||
| Halton | PC | Lib | Gain | 33,724 | 44.79 | 5.66 | 5,787 | 7.69 | Indira Naidoo-Harris | GTA (P&H) | ||||
| Hamilton Centre | NDP | NDP | Hold | 18,697 | 52.01 | -9.32 | 10,247 | 28.50 | Andrea Horwath | GTA (H&N) | ||||
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | NDP | NDP | Hold | 19,958 | 46.81 | -4.91 | 7,525 | 17.65 | Paul Miller | GTA (H&N) | ||||
| Hamilton Mountain | NDP | NDP | Hold | 23,006 | 46.90 | 1.73 | 8,498 | 17.32 | Monique Taylor | GTA (H&N) | ||||
| Huron—Bruce | PC | PC | Hold | 18,512 | 39.01 | -3.75 | 3,865 | 8.14 | Lisa Thompson | SW (Mid) | ||||
| Kenora—Rainy River | NDP | NDP | Hold | 12,889 | 55.66 | 6.04 | 6,984 | 30.16 | Sarah Campbell | North | ||||
| Kingston and the Islands | Lib | Lib | Hold-O | 20,838 | 41.59 | -7.26 | 6,027 | 12.03 | Sophie Kiwala | East | ||||
| Kitchener Centre | Lib | Lib | Hold-O | 18,472 | 43.14 | 3.92 | 6,922 | 16.17 | Daiene Vernile | SW (W) | ||||
| Kitchener—Conestoga | PC | PC | Hold | 17,083 | 36.36 | -7.82 | 1,419 | 3.02 | Michael Harris | SW (W) | ||||
| Kitchener—Waterloo | PC | NDP | Gain-B | 20,536 | 37.43 | 20.77 | 4,002 | 7.29 | Catherine Fife | SW (W) | ||||
| Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | PC | PC | Hold | 20,710 | 45.17 | -0.56 | 8,550 | 18.65 | Monte McNaughton | Southwest | ||||
| Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox & Addington | PC | PC | Hold | 21,966 | 43.52 | -6.60 | 6,929 | 13.73 | Randy Hillier | East | ||||
| Leeds—Grenville | PC | PC | Hold | 23,253 | 56.07 | -7.53 | 14,754 | 35.58 | Steve Clark | East | ||||
| London—Fanshawe | NDP | NDP | Hold | 17,903 | 50.42 | 9.65 | 9,707 | 27.34 | Teresa Armstrong | Southwest | ||||
| London North Centre | Lib | Lib | Hold | 16,379 | 35.98 | -7.92 | 2,526 | 5.55 | Deb Matthews | Southwest | ||||
| London West | Lib | NDP | Gain-B | 22,243 | 40.36 | 18.64 | 5,948 | 10.79 | Peggy Sattler | Southwest | ||||
| Markham—Unionville | Lib | Lib | Hold | 21,517 | 51.33 | -1.25 | 7,276 | 17.36 | Michael Chan | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Mississauga—Brampton South | Lib | Lib | Hold | 19,923 | 48.21 | 2.18 | 8,672 | 20.99 | Amrit Mangat | GTA (P&H) | ||||
| Mississauga East—Cooksville | Lib | Lib | Hold | 20,934 | 52.33 | 6.59 | 10,455 | 26.14 | Dipika Damerla | GTA (P&H) | ||||
| Mississauga—Erindale | Lib | Lib | Hold | 25,356 | 48.98 | 3.96 | 9,882 | 19.09 | Harinder Takhar | GTA (P&H) | ||||
| Mississauga South | Lib | Lib | Hold | 22,192 | 50.76 | 0.05 | 7,678 | 17.56 | Charles Sousa | GTA (P&H) | ||||
| Mississauga—Streetsville | Lib | Lib | Hold | 22,587 | 52.57 | 1.03 | 10,527 | 24.50 | Bob Delaney | GTA (P&H) | ||||
| Nepean—Carleton | PC | PC | Hold | 30,901 | 46.77 | -7.71 | 8,927 | 13.51 | Lisa MacLeod | East (O) | ||||
| Newmarket—Aurora | PC | Lib | Gain-O | 22,997 | 43.94 | 8.32 | 3,412 | 6.52 | Chris Ballard | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Niagara Falls | Lib | NDP | Gain-B | 24,131 | 47.39 | 21.09 | 7,429 | 14.59 | Wayne Gates | GTA (H&N) | ||||
| Niagara West—Glanbrook | PC | PC | Hold | 23,378 | 41.82 | -9.13 | 7,535 | 13.48 | Tim Hudak | GTA (H&N) | ||||
| Nickel Belt | NDP | NDP | Hold | 20,104 | 62.62 | 7.76 | 13,073 | 40.72 | France Gélinas | North | ||||
| Nipissing | PC | PC | Hold | 13,085 | 41.81 | -8.30 | 4,703 | 15.03 | Vic Fedeli | North | ||||
| Northumberland—Quinte West | PC | Lib | Gain | 23,419 | 42.97 | 4.63 | 3,836 | 7.04 | Lou Rinaldi | East | ||||
| Oak Ridges—Markham | Lib | Lib | Hold | 36,782 | 45.55 | 0.77 | 6,526 | 8.08 | Helena Jaczek | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Oakville | Lib | Lib | Hold | 24,717 | 49.40 | 1.31 | 5,796 | 11.58 | Kevin Flynn | GTA (P&H) | ||||
| Oshawa | PC | NDP | Gain | 22,232 | 46.70 | 10.52 | 7,692 | 16.16 | Jennifer French | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Ottawa Centre | Lib | Lib | Hold | 27,689 | 52.02 | 5.20 | 16,795 | 31.55 | Yasir Naqvi | East (O) | ||||
| Ottawa—Orléans | Lib | Lib | Hold-O | 29,911 | 53.50 | 7.06 | 11,386 | 20.37 | Marie-France Lalonde | East (O) | ||||
| Ottawa South | Lib | Lib | Hold-B | 23,708 | 49.96 | 1.11 | 8,473 | 17.86 | John Fraser | East (O) | ||||
| Ottawa—Vanier | Lib | Lib | Hold | 21,810 | 55.55 | 4.04 | 13,060 | 33.26 | Madeleine Meilleur | East (O) | ||||
| Ottawa West—Nepean | Lib | Lib | Hold | 21,035 | 44.84 | 3.23 | 5,140 | 10.96 | Bob Chiarelli | East (O) | ||||
| Oxford | PC | PC | Hold | 18,958 | 46.24 | -8.63 | 8,385 | 20.45 | Ernie Hardeman | SW (Mid) | ||||
| Parkdale—High Park | NDP | NDP | Hold | 18,385 | 40.77 | -5.43 | 544 | 1.21 | Cheri DiNovo | Toronto (C) | ||||
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | PC | PC | Hold | 15,761 | 40.73 | -13.36 | 5,603 | 14.48 | Norm Miller | North | ||||
| Perth—Wellington | PC | PC | Hold | 15,992 | 38.96 | -1.14 | 2,407 | 5.86 | Randy Pettapiece | SW (Mid) | ||||
| Peterborough | Lib | Lib | Hold | 24,709 | 46.33 | 6.40 | 8,802 | 16.50 | Jeff Leal | East | ||||
| Pickering—Scarborough East | Lib | Lib | Hold | 23,206 | 51.96 | 5.30 | 10,568 | 23.66 | Tracy MacCharles | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Prince Edward—Hastings | PC | PC | Hold | 19,281 | 41.72 | -0.56 | 4,176 | 9.04 | Todd Smith | East | ||||
| Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | PC | PC | Hold | 25,241 | 61.07 | -9.72 | 17,344 | 41.96 | John Yakabuski | East | ||||
| Richmond Hill | Lib | Lib | Hold | 20,455 | 47.78 | 0.86 | 4,813 | 11.24 | Reza Moridi | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| St. Catharines | Lib | Lib | Hold | 19,070 | 41.00 | 0.79 | 5,256 | 11.30 | Jim Bradley | GTA (H&N) | ||||
| St. Paul's | Lib | Lib | Hold | 30,027 | 59.74 | 1.35 | 17,990 | 35.79 | Eric Hoskins | Toronto (C) | ||||
| Sarnia—Lambton | PC | PC | Hold | 18,722 | 41.01 | -7.31 | 2,395 | 5.25 | Bob Bailey | Southwest | ||||
| Sault Ste. Marie | Lib | Lib | Hold | 17,490 | 58.53 | 3.57 | 9,880 | 33.06 | David Orazietti | North | ||||
| Scarborough—Agincourt | Lib | Lib | Hold | 17,332 | 49.84 | 2.99 | 5,291 | 15.22 | Soo Wong | Toronto (M) | ||||
| Scarborough Centre | Lib | Lib | Hold | 19,390 | 55.05 | 3.63 | 11,791 | 33.48 | Brad Duguid | Toronto (M) | ||||
| Scarborough—Guildwood | Lib | Lib | Hold-B | 17,318 | 49.89 | 0.96 | 7,597 | 21.89 | Mitzie Hunter | Toronto (M) | ||||
| Scarborough—Rouge River | Lib | Lib | Hold | 16,095 | 38.71 | -3.17 | 3,076 | 7.40 | Bas Balkissoon | Toronto (M) | ||||
| Scarborough Southwest | Lib | Lib | Hold | 18,420 | 50.23 | 6.13 | 9,746 | 26.58 | Lorenzo Berardinetti | Toronto (M) | ||||
| Simcoe—Grey | PC | PC | Hold | 25,988 | 47.12 | -7.21 | 8,789 | 15.94 | Jim Wilson | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Simcoe North | PC | PC | Hold | 22,179 | 43.96 | -11.20 | 5,766 | 11.43 | Garfield Dunlop | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | PC | PC | Hold | 20,624 | 51.72 | -3.54 | 11,374 | 28.52 | Jim McDonell | East | ||||
| Sudbury | Lib | NDP | Gain-O | 14,274 | 42.24 | 1.51 | 978 | 2.89 | Joe Cimino | North | ||||
| Thornhill | PC | PC | Hold | 21,886 | 43.99 | -2.72 | 106 | 0.21 | Gila Martow | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Thunder Bay—Atikokan | Lib | Lib | Hold | 15,176 | 52.98 | 14.01 | 7,124 | 24.87 | Bill Mauro | North | ||||
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | Lib | Lib | Hold | 15,519 | 55.97 | 10.97 | 7,350 | 26.51 | Michael Gravelle | North | ||||
| Timiskaming—Cochrane | NDP | NDP | Hold | 14,661 | 55.48 | 5.36 | 8,527 | 32.27 | John Vanthof | North | ||||
| Timmins—James Bay | NDP | NDP | Hold | 11,756 | 51.18 | 1.71 | 6,229 | 27.12 | Gilles Bisson | North | ||||
| Toronto Centre | Lib | Lib | Hold | 29,935 | 58.47 | 3.54 | 20,437 | 39.92 | Glen Murray | Toronto (C) | ||||
| Toronto—Danforth | NDP | NDP | Hold | 19,190 | 44.61 | -9.40 | 3,207 | 7.46 | Peter Tabuns | Toronto (C) | ||||
| Trinity—Spadina | NDP | Lib | Gain | 26,613 | 46.34 | 6.40 | 9,171 | 15.97 | Han Dong | Toronto (C) | ||||
| Vaughan | Lib | Lib | Hold-B | 33,877 | 56.21 | 3.19 | 16,898 | 28.04 | Steven Del Duca | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Welland | NDP | NDP | Hold | 21,326 | 46.71 | 2.05 | 8,393 | 18.38 | Cindy Forster | GTA (H&N) | ||||
| Wellington—Halton Hills | PC | PC | Hold | 22,450 | 46.61 | -9.01 | 8,330 | 17.29 | Ted Arnott | SW (W) | ||||
| Whitby—Oshawa | PC | PC | Hold | 24,027 | 40.65 | -7.52 | 5,410 | 9.15 | Christine Elliott | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| Willowdale | Lib | Lib | Hold | 24,300 | 52.58 | 1.73 | 8,832 | 19.11 | David Zimmer | Toronto (M) | ||||
| Windsor—Tecumseh | Lib | NDP | Gain-B | 22,818 | 62.16 | 29.31 | 17,219 | 46.91 | Percy Hatfield | Southwest | ||||
| Windsor West | Lib | NDP | Gain | 15,043 | 41.41 | 10.57 | 1,042 | 2.87 | Lisa Gretzky | Southwest | ||||
| York Centre | Lib | Lib | Hold | 16,935 | 47.89 | 2.53 | 5,810 | 16.43 | Monte Kwinter | Toronto (M) | ||||
| York—Simcoe | PC | PC | Hold | 19,025 | 40.40 | -12.38 | 2,749 | 5.84 | Julia Munro | GTA (DYS) | ||||
| York South—Weston | Lib | Lib | Hold | 15,669 | 47.85 | 3.30 | 3,469 | 10.59 | Laura Albanese | Toronto (C) | ||||
| York West | Lib | Lib | Hold | 11,907 | 46.71 | -3.78 | 1,910 | 7.49 | Mario Sergio | Toronto (M) | ||||
Major parties performance, by electoral district
| Riding | 2011 | Elected | Turnout [a 2] |
Votes[a 3] | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Share | Lib | PC | NDP | Green | Ind | Other | Total | |||||||||||
| % | % | % |
|||||||||||||||||
| Ajax—Pickering | Lib | Lib | 51.06 | 50.18 | 5.34 | 26,257 | 14,999 | 8,274 | 1,589 | – | 301 | 51,420 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Algoma—Manitoulin | NDP | NDP | 53.41 | 49.38 | -0.05 | 6,504 | 4,589 | 14,171 | 828 | – | 441 | 26,533 | North | ||||||
| Ancaster—Dundas—Flambor.—Westdale | Lib | Lib | 44.56 | 59.02 | 2.57 | 24,042 | 18,252 | 8,415 | 2,639 | – | 611 | 53,959 | GTA (H&N) | ||||||
| Barrie | PC | Lib | 40.69 | 49.18 | 3.18 | 19,916 | 17,667 | 7,975 | 3,018 | – | 366 | 48,942 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Beaches—East York | NDP | Lib | 40.09 | 56.14 | 4.50 | 17,218 | 5,982 | 16,737 | 2,329 | – | 682 | 42,948 | Toronto (C) | ||||||
| Bramalea—Gore—Malton | NDP | NDP | 44.32 | 45.03 | 4.32 | 17,873 | 9,403 | 23,519 | 2,277 | – | – | 53,072 | GTA (P&H) | ||||||
| Brampton—Springdale | Lib | Lib | 40.06 | 45.34 | 4.80 | 16,927 | 10,117 | 13,513 | 1,311 | – | 382 | 42,250 | GTA (P&H) | ||||||
| Brampton West | Lib | Lib | 45.23 | 42.50 | 4.21 | 24,832 | 13,363 | 12,985 | 1,504 | – | 2,418 | 54,902 | GTA (P&H) | ||||||
| Brant | Lib | Lib | 37.63 | 52.51 | 4.29 | 19,396 | 15,447 | 13,992 | 2,095 | – | 614 | 51,544 | SW (Mid) | ||||||
| Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | PC | PC | 47.55 | 53.93 | -0.77 | 11,586 | 20,359 | 6,787 | 3,696 | – | 388 | 42,816 | SW (Mid) | ||||||
| Burlington | PC | Lib | 43.41 | 57.73 | 2.90 | 23,573 | 20,086 | 7,792 | 2,250 | – | 608 | 54,309 | GTA (P&H) | ||||||
| Cambridge | PC | Lib | 38.93 | 48.95 | 2.91 | 18,763 | 15,694 | 10,413 | 2,726 | – | 605 | 48,201 | SW (W) | ||||||
| Carleton—Mississippi Mills | PC | PC | 47.49 | 56.08 | 2.59 | 20,472 | 30,590 | 8,744 | 4,614 | – | – | 64,420 | East (O) | ||||||
| Chatham-Kent—Essex | PC | PC | 37.83 | 51.33 | 1.92 | 9,158 | 14,183 | 11,664 | 1,971 | – | 514 | 37,490 | Southwest | ||||||
| Davenport | NDP | Lib | 45.61 | 49.56 | 3.97 | 16,272 | 2,665 | 14,322 | 1,784 | – | 631 | 35,674 | Toronto (C) | ||||||
| Don Valley East | Lib | Lib | 55.71 | 47.85 | 1.77 | 19,248 | 9,257 | 4,500 | 1,256 | – | 287 | 34,548 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
| Don Valley West | Lib | Lib | 57.01 | 53.90 | 2.96 | 26,215 | 14,082 | 3,569 | 1,286 | 138 | 690 | 45,980 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
| Dufferin—Caledon | PC | PC | 39.86 | 51.48 | 3.74 | 13,861 | 18,017 | 5,269 | 7,518 | – | 538 | 45,203 | SW (W) | ||||||
| Durham | PC | Lib | 36.45 | 55.71 | 5.97 | 19,816 | 18,640 | 13,094 | 2,382 | – | 434 | 54,366 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Eglinton—Lawrence | Lib | Lib | 54.80 | 53.99 | 2.18 | 22,855 | 14,079 | 3,060 | 1,305 | 143 | 264 | 41,706 | Toronto (C) | ||||||
| Elgin—Middlesex—London | PC | PC | 46.36 | 53.98 | 2.70 | 9,183 | 20,946 | 12,034 | 2,236 | – | 784 | 45,183 | Southwest | ||||||
| Essex | NDP | NDP | 60.34 | 50.20 | -1.18 | 6,628 | 10,169 | 28,118 | 1,685 | – | – | 46,600 | Southwest | ||||||
| Etobicoke Centre | Lib | Lib | 50.28 | 56.47 | 3.85 | 23,848 | 15,520 | 5,758 | 1,254 | – | 1,052 | 47,432 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | Lib | Lib | 47.49 | 53.73 | 3.72 | 24,311 | 17,587 | 6,362 | 2,064 | – | 869 | 51,193 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
| Etobicoke North | Lib | Lib | 44.90 | 42.71 | 2.56 | 12,168 | 6,163 | 7,103 | 677 | – | 987 | 27,098 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
| Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | Lib | Lib | 49.74 | 53.36 | 5.55 | 23,565 | 15,429 | 5,902 | 1,528 | 296 | 655 | 47,375 | East | ||||||
| Guelph | Lib | Lib | 41.52 | 55.47 | 5.21 | 22,014 | 11,048 | 9,385 | 10,230 | – | 348 | 53,025 | SW (W) | ||||||
| Haldimand—Norfolk | PC | PC | 52.22 | 53.97 | 0.67 | 8,331 | 22,066 | 9,786 | 2,071 | – | – | 42,254 | SW (Mid) | ||||||
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | PC | PC | 40.96 | 55.98 | 1.00 | 18,512 | 21,641 | 10,431 | 2,255 | – | – | 52,839 | East | ||||||
| Halton | PC | Lib | 44.79 | 50.90 | 4.91 | 33,724 | 27,937 | 9,758 | 2,618 | – | 1,262 | 75,299 | GTA (P&H) | ||||||
| Hamilton Centre | NDP | NDP | 52.01 | 44.76 | 2.32 | 8,450 | 5,173 | 18,697 | 3,067 | – | 563 | 35,950 | GTA (H&N) | ||||||
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | NDP | NDP | 46.81 | 48.84 | 2.58 | 12,433 | 7,574 | 19,958 | 1,742 | – | 930 | 42,637 | GTA (H&N) | ||||||
| Hamilton Mountain | NDP | NDP | 46.90 | 52.85 | 2.40 | 14,508 | 8,795 | 23,006 | 2,047 | – | 699 | 49,055 | GTA (H&N) | ||||||
| Huron—Bruce | PC | PC | 39.01 | 59.96 | 0.73 | 14,647 | 18,512 | 10,843 | 1,651 | – | 1,804 | 47,457 | SW (Mid) | ||||||
| Kenora—Rainy River | NDP | NDP | 55.66 | 46.72 | 0.97 | 3,652 | 5,905 | 12,889 | 711 | – | – | 23,157 | North | ||||||
| Kingston and the Islands | Lib | Lib | 41.59 | 52.14 | 7.11 | 20,838 | 10,652 | 14,811 | 3,566 | – | 242 | 50,109 | East | ||||||
| Kitchener Centre | Lib | Lib | 43.14 | 52.28 | 3.12 | 18,472 | 11,550 | 9,765 | 2,472 | – | 557 | 42,816 | SW (W) | ||||||
| Kitchener—Conestoga | PC | PC | 36.36 | 50.33 | 3.71 | 15,664 | 17,083 | 9,958 | 3,277 | – | 1,001 | 46,983 | SW (W) | ||||||
| Kitchener—Waterloo | PC | NDP | 37.43 | 54.95 | 4.41 | 16,534 | 14,450 | 20,536 | 2,859 | – | 481 | 54,860 | SW (W) | ||||||
| Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | PC | PC | 45.17 | 56.93 | 2.85 | 9,298 | 20,710 | 12,160 | 2,104 | – | 1,575 | 45,847 | Southwest | ||||||
| Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox & Addington | PC | PC | 43.52 | 53.95 | 3.52 | 15,037 | 21,966 | 10,184 | 3,283 | – | – | 50,470 | East | ||||||
| Leeds—Grenville | PC | PC | 56.07 | 52.86 | 2.22 | 8,499 | 23,253 | 7,219 | 2,030 | – | 471 | 41,472 | East | ||||||
| London—Fanshawe | NDP | NDP | 50.42 | 46.42 | 0.60 | 7,066 | 8,196 | 17,903 | 1,378 | 112 | 853 | 35,508 | Southwest | ||||||
| London North Centre | Lib | Lib | 35.98 | 50.21 | 2.34 | 16,379 | 12,016 | 13,853 | 2,445 | – | 824 | 45,517 | Southwest | ||||||
| London West | Lib | NDP | 40.36 | 56.03 | 3.03 | 13,070 | 16,295 | 22,243 | 2,310 | – | 1,188 | 55,106 | Southwest | ||||||
| Markham—Unionville | Lib | Lib | 51.33 | 44.54 | 3.86 | 21,517 | 14,241 | 4,205 | 1,509 | – | 444 | 41,916 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Mississauga—Brampton South | Lib | Lib | 48.21 | 41.48 | 5.05 | 19,923 | 11,251 | 6,906 | 1,302 | 351 | 1,590 | 41,323 | GTA (P&H) | ||||||
| Mississauga East—Cooksville | Lib | Lib | 52.33 | 43.89 | 3.39 | 20,934 | 10,479 | 6,158 | 1,408 | – | 1,022 | 40,001 | GTA (P&H) | ||||||
| Mississauga—Erindale | Lib | Lib | 48.98 | 46.90 | 2.99 | 25,356 | 15,474 | 7,730 | 1,216 | – | 1,988 | 51,764 | GTA (P&H) | ||||||
| Mississauga South | Lib | Lib | 50.76 | 53.55 | 2.30 | 22,192 | 14,514 | 4,649 | 1,418 | – | 946 | 43,719 | GTA (P&H) | ||||||
| Mississauga—Streetsville | Lib | Lib | 52.57 | 46.76 | 5.30 | 22,587 | 12,060 | 5,885 | 1,566 | – | 866 | 42,964 | GTA (P&H) | ||||||
| Nepean—Carleton | PC | PC | 46.77 | 55.39 | 5.48 | 21,974 | 30,901 | 8,628 | 3,630 | – | 940 | 66,073 | East (O) | ||||||
| Newmarket—Aurora | PC | Lib | 43.94 | 53.40 | 4.07 | 22,997 | 19,585 | 6,023 | 2,144 | – | 1,584 | 52,333 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Niagara Falls | Lib | NDP | 47.39 | 51.21 | 1.77 | 7,329 | 16,702 | 24,131 | 1,724 | – | 1,037 | 50,923 | GTA (H&N) | ||||||
| Niagara West—Glanbrook | PC | PC | 41.82 | 58.59 | 3.71 | 15,843 | 23,378 | 12,423 | 3,004 | – | 1,254 | 55,902 | GTA (H&N) | ||||||
| Nickel Belt | NDP | NDP | 62.62 | 50.00 | 0.44 | 7,031 | 3,827 | 20,104 | 1,145 | – | – | 32,107 | North | ||||||
| Nipissing | PC | PC | 41.81 | 52.49 | 0.63 | 8,382 | 13,085 | 8,057 | 1,188 | 208 | 377 | 31,297 | North | ||||||
| Northumberland—Quinte West | PC | Lib | 42.97 | 55.81 | 3.94 | 23,419 | 19,583 | 9,211 | 2,283 | – | – | 54,496 | East | ||||||
| Oak Ridges—Markham | Lib | Lib | 45.55 | 46.21 | 3.51 | 36,782 | 30,256 | 9,355 | 2,791 | – | 1,571 | 80,755 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Oakville | Lib | Lib | 49.40 | 56.13 | 3.42 | 24,717 | 18,921 | 3,994 | 1,887 | – | 518 | 50,037 | GTA (P&H) | ||||||
| Oshawa | PC | NDP | 46.70 | 50.19 | 5.92 | 9,051 | 14,540 | 22,232 | 1,785 | – | – | 47,608 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Ottawa Centre | Lib | Lib | 52.02 | 56.85 | 3.12 | 27,689 | 9,678 | 10,894 | 4,163 | – | 808 | 53,232 | East (O) | ||||||
| Ottawa—Orléans | Lib | Lib | 53.50 | 59.33 | 6.68 | 29,911 | 18,525 | 5,022 | 2,036 | – | 411 | 55,905 | East (O) | ||||||
| Ottawa South | Lib | Lib | 49.96 | 53.71 | 2.52 | 23,708 | 15,235 | 5,817 | 2,034 | – | 656 | 47,450 | East (O) | ||||||
| Ottawa—Vanier | Lib | Lib | 55.55 | 48.86 | 2.05 | 21,810 | 8,750 | 5,228 | 3,144 | – | 329 | 39,261 | East (O) | ||||||
| Ottawa West—Nepean | Lib | Lib | 44.84 | 55.95 | 1.93 | 21,035 | 15,895 | 6,760 | 2,899 | – | 318 | 46,907 | East (O) | ||||||
| Oxford | PC | PC | 46.24 | 51.92 | 2.74 | 8,736 | 18,958 | 10,573 | 1,985 | – | 749 | 41,001 | SW (Mid) | ||||||
| Parkdale—High Park | NDP | NDP | 40.77 | 56.88 | 5.10 | 17,841 | 5,787 | 18,385 | 2,479 | – | 601 | 45,093 | Toronto (C) | ||||||
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | PC | PC | 40.73 | 52.11 | 0.33 | 10,158 | 15,761 | 4,999 | 7,484 | – | 296 | 38,698 | North | ||||||
| Perth—Wellington | PC | PC | 38.96 | 55.66 | 3.77 | 13,585 | 15,992 | 7,764 | 2,005 | 343 | 1,359 | 41,048 | SW (Mid) | ||||||
| Peterborough | Lib | Lib | 46.33 | 57.30 | 4.11 | 24,709 | 15,907 | 9,728 | 2,287 | 395 | 305 | 53,331 | East | ||||||
| Pickering—Scarborough East | Lib | Lib | 51.96 | 54.77 | 5.08 | 23,206 | 12,638 | 6,600 | 1,564 | – | 654 | 44,662 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Prince Edward—Hastings | PC | PC | 41.72 | 51.61 | -0.14 | 15,105 | 19,281 | 8,829 | 2,448 | – | 555 | 46,218 | East | ||||||
| Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | PC | PC | 61.07 | 54.32 | 1.63 | 7,897 | 25,241 | 5,978 | 1,337 | 392 | 489 | 41,334 | East | ||||||
| Richmond Hill | Lib | Lib | 47.78 | 45.69 | 3.20 | 20,455 | 15,642 | 4,697 | 1,344 | – | 670 | 42,808 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| St. Catharines | Lib | Lib | 41.00 | 54.80 | 3.80 | 19,070 | 13,814 | 11,350 | 1,792 | – | 488 | 46,514 | GTA (H&N) | ||||||
| St. Paul's | Lib | Lib | 59.74 | 57.11 | 6.70 | 30,027 | 12,037 | 5,056 | 2,569 | – | 572 | 50,261 | Toronto (C) | ||||||
| Sarnia—Lambton | PC | PC | 41.01 | 57.35 | 5.60 | 8,152 | 18,722 | 16,327 | 2,109 | – | 340 | 45,650 | Southwest | ||||||
| Sault Ste. Marie | Lib | Lib | 58.53 | 50.77 | 1.42 | 17,490 | 3,704 | 7,610 | 965 | – | 115 | 29,884 | North | ||||||
| Scarborough—Agincourt | Lib | Lib | 49.84 | 46.04 | 2.47 | 17,332 | 12,041 | 4,105 | 907 | – | 387 | 34,772 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
| Scarborough Centre | Lib | Lib | 55.05 | 48.09 | 3.60 | 19,390 | 7,599 | 7,145 | 1,086 | – | – | 35,220 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
| Scarborough—Guildwood | Lib | Lib | 49.89 | 49.24 | 1.59 | 17,318 | 9,721 | 5,894 | 1,034 | – | 744 | 34,711 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
| Scarborough—Rouge River | Lib | Lib | 38.71 | 47.48 | 4.58 | 16,095 | 11,500 | 13,019 | 571 | – | 398 | 41,583 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
| Scarborough Southwest | Lib | Lib | 50.23 | 49.91 | 2.13 | 18,420 | 7,573 | 8,674 | 1,493 | 185 | 328 | 36,673 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
| Simcoe—Grey | PC | PC | 47.12 | 52.00 | 3.88 | 17,199 | 25,988 | 7,793 | 4,172 | – | – | 55,152 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Simcoe North | PC | PC | 43.96 | 53.33 | 2.35 | 16,413 | 22,179 | 7,846 | 4,013 | – | – | 50,451 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | PC | PC | 51.72 | 52.02 | 0.63 | 9,250 | 20,624 | 8,336 | 1,067 | – | 602 | 39,879 | East | ||||||
| Sudbury | Lib | NDP | 42.24 | 51.92 | 1.97 | 13,296 | 4,663 | 14,274 | 1,212 | 105 | 243 | 33,793 | North | ||||||
| Thornhill | PC | PC | 43.99 | 47.83 | 2.48 | 21,780 | 21,886 | 4,052 | 1,229 | – | 804 | 49,751 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Thunder Bay—Atikokan | Lib | Lib | 52.98 | 49.02 | 2.42 | 15,176 | 3,779 | 8,052 | 964 | – | 676 | 28,647 | North | ||||||
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | Lib | Lib | 55.97 | 50.41 | 2.21 | 15,519 | 1,991 | 8,169 | 997 | – | 1,049 | 27,725 | North | ||||||
| Timiskaming—Cochrane | NDP | NDP | 55.48 | 50.68 | 0.67 | 6,134 | 4,527 | 14,661 | 489 | – | 615 | 26,426 | North | ||||||
| Timmins—James Bay | NDP | NDP | 51.18 | 45.15 | -1.68 | 5,527 | 5,226 | 11,756 | 403 | – | 60 | 22,972 | North | ||||||
| Toronto Centre | Lib | Lib | 58.47 | 50.86 | 2.44 | 29,935 | 9,498 | 8,140 | 2,265 | – | 1,357 | 51,195 | Toronto (C) | ||||||
| Toronto—Danforth | NDP | NDP | 44.61 | 55.30 | 6.00 | 15,983 | 4,304 | 19,190 | 2,351 | – | 1,189 | 43,017 | Toronto (C) | ||||||
| Trinity—Spadina | NDP | Lib | 46.34 | 49.33 | 6.33 | 26,613 | 8,035 | 17,442 | 4,033 | – | 1,311 | 57,434 | Toronto (C) | ||||||
| Vaughan | Lib | Lib | 56.21 | 44.68 | 3.60 | 33,877 | 16,979 | 6,942 | 1,350 | – | 1,121 | 60,269 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Welland | NDP | NDP | 46.71 | 53.20 | 1.56 | 9,060 | 12,933 | 21,326 | 1,874 | – | 460 | 45,653 | GTA (H&N) | ||||||
| Wellington—Halton Hills | PC | PC | 46.61 | 55.61 | 4.50 | 14,120 | 22,450 | 6,804 | 3,550 | – | 1,241 | 48,165 | SW (W) | ||||||
| Whitby—Oshawa | PC | PC | 40.65 | 54.35 | 4.66 | 18,617 | 24,027 | 13,621 | 2,523 | – | 322 | 59,110 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| Willowdale | Lib | Lib | 52.58 | 46.88 | 1.48 | 24,300 | 15,468 | 4,693 | 1,758 | – | – | 46,219 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
| Windsor—Tecumseh | Lib | NDP | 62.16 | 42.77 | -1.92 | 5,599 | 2,118 | 22,818 | 5,493 | – | 682 | 36,710 | Southwest | ||||||
| Windsor West | Lib | NDP | 41.41 | 42.71 | 1.13 | 14,001 | 5,225 | 15,043 | 1,171 | 891 | – | 36,331 | Southwest | ||||||
| York Centre | Lib | Lib | 47.89 | 46.74 | 1.00 | 16,935 | 11,125 | 5,645 | 1,163 | – | 493 | 35,361 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
| York—Simcoe | PC | PC | 40.40 | 47.53 | 4.62 | 16,276 | 19,025 | 8,420 | 2,946 | – | 419 | 47,086 | GTA (DYS) | ||||||
| York South—Weston | Lib | Lib | 47.85 | 46.13 | 1.27 | 15,669 | 3,687 | 12,200 | 797 | 146 | 249 | 32,748 | Toronto (C) | ||||||
| York West | Lib | Lib | 46.71 | 42.24 | 3.01 | 11,907 | 2,794 | 9,997 | 418 | 111 | 267 | 25,494 | Toronto (M) | ||||||
- = open seat
- = turnout is above provincial average
- = incumbent re-elected
- = incumbency arose from byelection gain
- "2014 General Election". elections.on.ca. Elections Ontario. Retrieved June 18, 2023.
- including spoilt ballots
- minor parties are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately
Local contest dynamics
Contests
| Candidates in contest | Total | Average of votes received by candidate | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # of candidates | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | ||||
| Districts with said # of candidates | 14 | 37 | 33 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 107 | |||
| Parties participation in such contests | all | successful | ||||||||||
| Liberal | 14 | 37 | 33 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 107 | 17,420.3 | 21,873.6 | |
| Progressive Conservative | 14 | 37 | 33 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 107 | 14,069.5 | 20,958.0 | |
| New Democratic | 14 | 37 | 33 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 107 | 10,699.3 | 19,283.8 | |
| Green | 14 | 37 | 33 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 107 | 2,204.8 | ||
| Libertarian | 24 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 73 | 516.4 | |||
| Freedom | 7 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 281.8 | |||
| Communist | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 189.2 | |||
| None of the Above | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 511.5 | ||||||
| Family Coalition | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 714.5 | |||||||
| Independents | 1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 272.6 | |||||
| Other[b] | 3 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 199.9 | |||
| Total candidates in such contests | 56 | 185 | 198 | 98 | 48 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 615 | 7,838.3 | 21,125.7 | |
| Parties | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| █ Liberal | 58 | 36 | 13 | 107 | ||
| █ Progressive Conservative | 28 | 50 | 28 | 1 | 107 | |
| █ New Democratic | 21 | 21 | 62 | 3 | 107 | |
| █ Green | 4 | 101 | 2 | 107 | ||
| █ Libertarian | 1 | 61 | 62 | |||
| █ Northern Ontario Heritage | 1 | 1 | ||||
| █ Freedom | 15 | 15 | ||||
| █ None of the Above | 4 | 4 | ||||
| █ Family Coalition | 3 | 3 | ||||
| █ Independent | 2 | 2 | ||||
| █ Communist | 2 | 2 | ||||
| █ Confederation of Regions | 2 | 2 | ||||
| █ Canadians' Choice | 1 | 1 | ||||
| █ Trillium | 1 | 1 |
Significant results among independent and minor party candidates
Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:
| Riding | Party | Candidates | Votes | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huron—Bruce | █ FamilyCoalition | Andrew Zettel | 1,353 | 5th |
| Kitchener—Conestoga | █ Libertarian | David Schumm | 1,001 | 5th |
| London West | █ Freedom | Al Gretzky | 1,188 | 5th |
| Oak Ridges—Markham | █ Libertarian | Karl Boelling | 1,358 | 5th |
| Vaughan | █ Libertarian | Paolo Fabrizio | 1,121 | 5th |
| Wellington—Halton Hills | █ Libertarian | Jason Cousineau | 1,043 | 5th |
Opinion polls
Voting intention polls released throughout the election campaign were distinctly inconsistent and contradictory,[83][84][85][86] as shown in the graph and table below. During much of the campaign, different pollsters persistently disagreed, frequently by important margins, on whether the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives held the lead, though by the final days most polls showed the Liberals marginally to comfortably ahead. Still, polls completed on the last day of the campaign by Ipsos Reid and EKOS showed vastly divergent support for the NDP, at 30% and 19%, respectively. Also of note, although four different pollsters released results among "likely voters" alongside their results among all eligible voters in an effort to better predict the outcome of the election based on expected voter turnout, in all cases the former proved to be overall poorer predictors than the latter.[87]
General opinion polls
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Liberal | PC | NDP | Green | Libertarian | Other | Type of poll |
Sample size |
Margin of Error | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election 2014 | June 12, 2014 | HTML | 38.65 | 31.25 | 23.75 | 4.84 | 1.51 | Ballot | 4,851,333 | |||
| Forum Research | June 11, 2014 | 41 | 35 | 20 | 3 | 1 | IVR | 1,054 | ±3% | 19  20 | ||
| EKOS[2] | June 11, 2014 | 37.3 | 31.3 | 19.2 | 8.2 | 3.9 | IVR | 1,311 | ±2.7% | 19 20 | ||
| Abacus Data[2] | June 11, 2014 | 35 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 1 | Online | 1,882 | ±2.3% | 19 20 | ||
| Ipsos Reid[2] | June 11, 2014 | HTML | 33 | 31 | 30 | 5 | Online | 1,991 | ±2.4% | |||
| EKOS[2] | June 10, 2014 | 36.6 | 30.2 | 21.5 | 6.6 | 5.0 | IVR | 1,332 | ±2.7% | 19 20 | ||
| Angus Reid[2] | June 10, 2014 | 36 | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | Online | 1,866 | ±2.3% | 19 20 | ||
| Forum Research | June 9, 2014 | 42 | 35 | 19 | 3 | 1 | IVR | 739 | ±4% | 19 20 | ||
| Léger Marketing | June 9, 2014 | 37 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 1 | Online | 1,050 | ±3.2% | 19 20 | ||
| EKOS[2] | June 9, 2014 | 34.7 | 34.5 | 19.8 | 6.7 | 4.3 | IVR | 1,417 | ±2.6% | 19 20 | ||
| EKOS[2] | June 8, 2014 | 35.9 | 35.9 | 17.6 | 7.7 | 2.8 | IVR | 1,331 | ±2.7% | 19 20 | ||
| Oraclepoll Research | June 8, 2014 | 35 | 36 | 24 | 5 | Telephone | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 19 20 | |||
| Abacus Data[2] | June 7, 2014 | 34 | 31 | 28 | 5 | 1 | Online | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 19 20 | ||
| EKOS[2] | June 6, 2014 | 34.2 | 35.5 | 20.5 | 7.4 | 2.4 | IVR | 1,767 | ±2.3% | 19 20 | ||
| Ipsos Reid[2] | June 6, 2014 | HTML | 35 | 35 | 26 | 4 | Online | 2,140 | ±2.4% | |||
| Forum Research | June 5, 2014 | 39 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 1 | IVR | 1,022 | ±3% | 19 20 | ||
| EKOS[2] | June 5, 2014 | 33.9 | 34.9 | 20.5 | 8.4 | 2.3 | IVR | 1,690 | ±2.4% | 19 20 | ||
| EKOS[2] | June 4, 2014 | 35.7 | 30.9 | 19.8 | 9.6 | 4.0 | IVR | 1,303 | ±2.7% | 19 20 | ||
| EKOS | June 3, 2014 | 36.4 | 31.0 | 19.3 | 8.4 | 4.9 | IVR | 997 | ±3.1% | 19 20 | ||
| EKOS | June 2, 2014 | 38.8 | 30.5 | 17.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | IVR | 934 | ±3.2% | 19 20 | ||
| EKOS | June 1, 2014 | 38.5 | 33.7 | 16.9 | 7.8 | 3.0 | IVR | 927 | ±3.2% | 19 20 | ||
| Abacus Data[2] | May 31, 2014 | 37 | 30 | 24 | 7 | 2 | Online | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 19 20 | ||
| Ipsos Reid[2] | May 29, 2014 | HTML | 34 | 36 | 23 | 7 | Online | 868 | ±3.8% | |||
| Forum Research | May 27, 2014 | PDF Archived 2014-05-29 at the Wayback Machine | 36 | 36 | 20 | 7 | 1 | IVR | 882 | ±3% | 19 20 | |
| Oraclepoll Research | May 27, 2014 | 32 | 36 | 25 | 7 | Telephone | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 19 20 | |||
| Nanos Research | May 26, 2014 | 37.7 | 31.2 | 23.7 | 5.3 | Telephone | 500 | ±4.4% | 19 20 | |||
| Abacus Data[2] | May 24, 2014 | 34 | 32 | 25 | 6 | 2 | Online | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 19 20 | ||
| EKOS | May 23, 2014 | 35.8 | 30.0 | 20.4 | 11.9 | 1.9 | IVR | 1,215 | ±2.8% | 19 20 | ||
| Ipsos Reid[2] | May 21, 2014 | HTML | 31 | 35 | 28 | 6 | Online | 800 | ±3.9% | |||
| Forum Research | May 20, 2014 | 41 | 34 | 20 | 4 | 1 | IVR | 1,136 | ±3% | 19 20 | ||
| Abacus Data[2] | May 16, 2014 | 33 | 33 | 26 | 6 | 2 | Online | 2,000 | ±2.2% | 19 20 | ||
| EKOS | May 15, 2014 | 37.1 | 30.3 | 20.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | IVR | 1,111 | ±2.9% | 19 20 | ||
| Ipsos Reid[2] | May 14, 2014 | HTML | 30 | 39 | 24 | 7 | Online | 801 | ±3.9% | |||
| Forum Research | May 12, 2014 | PDF Archived 2014-05-17 at the Wayback Machine | 38 | 35 | 21 | 5 | 1 | IVR | 996 | ±3% | 19 20 | |
| Ipsos Reid[2] | May 9, 2014 | HTML | 31 | 37 | 28 | 4 | Online | 821 | ±3.9% | |||
| Innovative Research | May 6, 2014 | 38.8 | 32.8 | 19.9 | 6.5 | 2.0 | Online | 1,000 | N/A[1] | |||
| Innovative Research | May 6, 2014 | 38.7 | 32.8 | 23.7 | 4.3 | 0.5 | Telephone | 500 | ±4.4% | 19 20 | ||
| Oraclepoll Research | May 5, 2014 | PDF[permanent dead link] | 31 | 42 | 25 | 3 | Telephone | 1,000 | ±3.2% | 19 20 | ||
| Forum Research | May 3, 2014 | PDF Archived 2014-05-05 at the Wayback Machine | 33 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 1 | IVR | 1,845 | ±2% | 19 20 | |
| EKOS | May 1, 2014 | 34.7 | 31.6 | 22.2 | 9.4 | 2.0 | IVR | 1,576 | ±2.5% | 19 20 | ||
| Election 2011 | October 6, 2011 | 37.65 | 35.45 | 22.74 | 2.92 | 1.24 | Ballot | 4,316,382 | ||||
1 Innovative Research states, for Province Wide Online Survey, "Margin of error not applicable, online samples not random."
2 Data shown above for campaign-period polls are top-line results, typically among all eligible voters. However, certain pollsters additionally report results among "likely voters" in an effort to better predict the actual outcome of the election. When available, these alternative results are shown in the following table:
Likely voters
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Liberal | PC | NDP | Green | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EKOS | June 11, 2014 | 42.2 | 35.9 | 16.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 | |
| Abacus Data | June 11, 2014 | 36 | 36 | 23 | 5 | 1 | |
| Ipsos Reid | June 11, 2014 | HTML | 30 | 36 | 30 | 4 | |
| EKOS | June 10, 2014 | 41.1 | 33.2 | 17.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | |
| Angus Reid | June 10, 2014 | 34 | 36 | 24 | 5 | 1 | |
| EKOS | June 9, 2014 | 38.1 | 36.3 | 16.9 | 5.7 | 3.1 | |
| EKOS | June 8, 2014 | 42.2 | 35.4 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 2.0 | |
| Abacus Data | June 7, 2014 | 34 | 34 | 26 | 5 | 1 | |
| EKOS | June 6, 2014 | 40.7 | 35.7 | 16.3 | 5.6 | 1.8 | |
| Ipsos Reid | June 6, 2014 | HTML | 32 | 40 | 24 | 3 | |
| EKOS | June 5, 2014 | 39.5 | 35.6 | 16.7 | 6.6 | 2 | |
| EKOS | June 4, 2014 | 41.4 | 32.0 | 17.8 | 6.2 | 3 | |
| Abacus Data | May 31, 2014 | 37 | 35 | 22 | 5 | 2 | |
| Ipsos Reid | May 29, 2014 | HTML | 29 | 41 | 25 | 4 | |
| Abacus Data | May 24, 2014 | 36 | 33 | 24 | 6 | 1 | |
| Ipsos Reid | May 21, 2014 | HTML | 30 | 41 | 26 | 3 | |
| Abacus Data | May 16, 2014 | 33 | 36 | 25 | 5 | 1 | |
| Ipsos Reid | May 14, 2014 | HTML | 31 | 43 | 22 | 4 | |
| Ipsos Reid | May 9, 2014 | HTML | 28 | 42 | 27 | 2 |
Pre-campaign period
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| Pre-campaign period polling (October 2011 – April 2014) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polling firm | Last date of polling | Link | Liberal | PC | NDP | Green | Type of poll | Sample size | |
| Ipsos Reid | April 17, 2014 | HTML | 32 | 37 | 27 | 5 | Online | 813 | |
| Innovative Research | April 14, 2014 | 39 | 30 | 23 | 7 | Online | 800 | ||
| Nanos Research | April 11, 2014 | 36.3 | 36.0 | 21.6 | 5.7 | Telephone | 503 | ||
| Forum Research | April 7, 2014 | PDF Archived 2014-04-13 at the Wayback Machine | 31 | 38 | 23 | 7 | IVR | 928 | |
| Oraclepoll Research | April 7, 2014 | 35 | 34 | 24 | 8 | Telephone | 1,000 | ||
| EKOS | April 3, 2014 | 32.3 | 27.4 | 29.0 | 8.3 | IVR | 1,234 | ||
| Innovative Research | March 26, 2014 | 38 | 33 | 25 | 4 | Online | 1,017 | ||
| Forum Research | March 24, 2014 | PDF Archived 2014-04-07 at the Wayback Machine | 35 | 32 | 25 | 7 | IVR | 908 | |
| Nanos Research | March 3, 2014 | 35.7 | 32.9 | 24.5 | 6.8 | Telephone | 500 | ||
| Forum Research | February 25, 2014 | HTML | 32 | 35 | 26 | 6 | IVR | 1,014 | |
| Ipsos Reid | February 7, 2014 | HTML | 31 | 34 | 31 | 4 | Online | 828 | |
| Forum Research | January 25, 2014 | HTML | 33 | 36 | 26 | 4 | IVR | 1,222 | |
| Nanos Research | January 20, 2014 | 35.5 | 28.1 | 27.4 | 8.1 | Telephone | 500 | ||
| Forum Research | December 18, 2013 | HTML | 31 | 38 | 24 | 5 | IVR | 1,044 | |
| Forum Research | November 26, 2013 | PDF Archived 2013-12-19 at the Wayback Machine | 32 | 38 | 23 | 6 | IVR | 1,126 | |
| Ipsos Reid | November 6, 2013 | HTML Archived December 25, 2013, at the Wayback Machine | 34 | 31 | 31 | 5 | Online | 832 | |
| Forum Research | October 25, 2013 | HTML | 31 | 34 | 27 | 7 | IVR | 1,049 | |
| Forum Research | October 1, 2013 | HTML | 33 | 36 | 23 | 7 | IVR | 1,093 | |
| Nanos Research | September 29, 2013 | 36.0 | 31.3 | 26.1 | 6.3 | Telephone | 500 | ||
| Campaign Research | September 19, 2013 | 36 | 32 | 22 | 8 | IVR | 1,414 | ||
| Abacus Data | September 4, 2013 | 30 | 33 | 30 | 5 | Online | 1,000 | ||
| Forum Research | August 28, 2013 | 32 | 35 | 26 | 6 | IVR | 1,063 | ||
| Innovative Research | August 27, 2013 | HTML | 37 | 30 | 22 | 10 | Telephone | 600 | |
| Forum Research | July 22, 2013 | 31 | 36 | 27 | 5 | IVR | 914 | ||
| Nanos Research | July 14, 2013 | 37.2 | 30.6 | 27.0 | 4.9 | Telephone | 500 | ||
| EKOS | July 9, 2013 | 31.9 | 28.9 | 25.9 | 9.4 | IVR | 830 | ||
| Forum Research | June 26, 2013 | 33 | 35 | 24 | 8 | IVR | 1,037 | ||
| Forum Research | May 28, 2013 | 38 | 34 | 21 | 6 | IVR | 918 | ||
| EKOS | May 26, 2013 | HTML | 34.9 | 29.6 | 22.6 | 9.4 | IVR | 1,152 | |
| Ipsos Reid | May 21, 2013 | HTML | 34 | 34 | 26 | 5 | Online | 1,772 | |
| Abacus Data | May 9, 2013 | 34 | 34 | 25 | 6 | Online | 1,185 | ||
| Innovative Research | May 9, 2013 | 37 | 30 | 25 | 6 | Telephone | 610 | ||
| Forum Research | May 3, 2013 | 35 | 35 | 25 | 4 | IVR | 869 | ||
| Forum Research | April 26, 2013 | 36 | 36 | 24 | 4 | IVR | 1,133 | ||
| Ipsos Reid | April 17, 2013 | HTML | 28 | 37 | 29 | 6 | Online | 1,360 | |
| EKOS | April 10, 2013 | 30.8 | 31.7 | 25.5 | 9.7 | IVR | 1,084 | ||
| Forum Research | March 27, 2013 | 33 | 35 | 26 | 5 | IVR | 1,156 | ||
| Forum Research | March 1, 2013 | 32 | 32 | 29 | 5 | IVR | 2,773 | ||
| Forum Research | February 20, 2013 | 29 | 36 | 28 | 5 | IVR | 1,053 | ||
| Nanos Research | February 13, 2013 | 33.6 | 33.7 | 26.5 | 5.4 | Telephone | 500 | ||
| EKOS | February 10, 2013 | 32.5 | 28.5 | 25.6 | 10.1 | IVR | 1,797 | ||
| Abacus Data | February 6, 2013 | PDF Archived 2014-04-15 at the Wayback Machine | 30 | 33 | 31 | 5 | Online | 1,020 | |
| Innovative Research | January 29, 2013 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 9 | Telephone | 446 | ||
| Forum Research | January 24, 2013 | 27 | 32 | 35 | 5 | IVR | 1,108 | ||
| Forum Research | December 17, 2012 | 27 | 33 | 31 | 8 | IVR | 990 | ||
| Abacus Data | December 8, 2012 | PDF Archived 2014-04-15 at the Wayback Machine | 28 | 35 | 31 | 5 | Online | 821 | |
| Forum Research | November 28, 2012 | 29 | 35 | 27 | 8 | IVR | 1,127 | ||
| Oraclepoll Research | November 24, 2012 | 26 | 37 | 31 | 6 | Telephone | |||
| Forum Research | October 31, 2012 | 22 | 37 | 32 | 7 | IVR | 1,102 | ||
| Innovative Research | October 22, 2012 | 28 | 32 | 31 | 9 | Telephone | 600 | ||
| Angus Reid | October 17, 2012 | 26 | 36 | 32 | 5 | Online | 802 | ||
| Forum Research | September 25, 2012 | 20 | 37 | 35 | 7 | IVR | 851 | ||
| Nanos Research | August 16, 2012 | 34.0 | 34.7 | 22.1 | 6.8 | Telephone | 1,000 | ||
| Forum Research | August 15, 2012 | 27 | 38 | 28 | 6 | IVR | 1,021 | ||
| Forum Research | June 15, 2012 | 26 | 38 | 30 | 5 | IVR | 1,098 | ||
| Forum Research | June 4, 2012 | 28 | 36 | 30 | 4 | IVR | 1,038 | ||
| Environics | May 25, 2012 | 25 | 37 | 28 | 10 | Telephone | 500 | ||
| Forum Research | May 14, 2012 | 27 | 34 | 32 | 5 | IVR | 1,072 | ||
| Nanos Research | May 13, 2012 | 31.0 | 33.6 | 28.5 | 5.6 | Telephone | 500 | ||
| Forum Research | April 17, 2012 | 28 | 34 | 31 | 5 | IVR | 1,084 | ||
| Nanos Research | April 15, 2012 | 35.4 | 32.1 | 26.5 | 6.0 | Telephone | 501 | ||
| Environics | April 13, 2012 | HTML | 27 | 37 | 30 | 6 | Telephone | 500 | |
| Forum Research | March 28, 2012 | 30 | 34 | 30 | 5 | IVR | 1,131 | ||
| Forum Research | March 13, 2012 | 28 | 40 | 23 | 8 | IVR | 1,065 | ||
| Nanos Research | March 5, 2012 | 39.9 | 30.0 | 24.7 | 4.3 | Telephone | 500 | ||
| Forum Research | February 15, 2012 | 32 | 36 | 26 | 5 | IVR | 1,218 | ||
| Forum Research | January 18, 2012 | 33 | 41 | 20 | 4 | IVR | 1,041 | ||
| Nanos Research | November 13, 2011 | 39.1 | 34.5 | 21.6 | 3.5 | Telephone | 500 | ||
| Innovative Research | November 2, 2011 | 39 | 34 | 23 | 4 | Online | 545 | ||
| Election 2011 | October 6, 2011 | 37.65 | 35.45 | 22.74 | 2.92 | Ballot | 4,316,382 | ||
