2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election
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The 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Minnesota. Incumbent Democratic (DFL) Governor Tim Walz defeated the Republican nominee, physician and former state Senator Scott Jensen,[1] winning a second term.[2]
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November 8, 2022
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| Turnout | 61.0% ( 2.6 pp) | |||||||||||||||||||
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Walz: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Jensen: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Jensen's advantage in rural Greater Minnesota could not overcome Walz's large lead in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Walz won the election by a comfortable 7.7% margin, narrowly larger than Biden's 7.1% margin in 2020 but smaller than his own previous record of 11.4%. With his win, Walz gave the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party its fourth consecutive gubernatorial victory, the most in the party's history.[3] Furthermore, the DFL held the state house and flipped the state senate, gaining a trifecta for the first time since 2012.[4]
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tim Walz, incumbent governor and former U.S. representative for Minnesota's 1st congressional district (2007–2019)[5][6][7]
- Peggy Flanagan, incumbent lieutenant governor[6][7]
Eliminated in primary
- Ole Savior, perennial candidate[7][8]
- Julia M. Parker[7]
Results
Walz
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Tim Walz (incumbent) | 416,973 | 96.54% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Ole Savior | 14,950 | 3.46% | |
| Total votes | 431,923 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Scott Jensen, family medicine physician and former state senator[10]
- Matt Birk, former professional football player with the Minnesota Vikings, businessman, and author[11]
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
- Michelle Benson, state senator[14]
- Thomas Evensted, activist[15]
- Paul Gazelka, state senator and former majority leader of the Minnesota Senate[16][17][18]
- Mike Marti, businessman[19]
- Mike Murphy, mayor of Lexington[20]
- Kendall Qualls, Army veteran, businessman, and Republican nominee for Minnesota's 3rd congressional district in 2020[21][22]
- Neil Shah, physician and business owner[20]
- Rich Stanek, former Hennepin County sheriff[23][24]
Declined
- Rob Barrett, businessman, activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020[25]
- Matt Birk, former Minnesota Vikings player[26][27] (endorsed Jensen and became his running mate)[28]
- Jennifer Carnahan, former chair of the Minnesota Republican Party (2017–2021) and widow of U.S. Representative Jim Hagedorn[29] (unsuccessfully ran for Congress in a 2022 special election)
- Karin Housley, state senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018[30] (ran for reelection)[31]
- Mike Lindell, inventor of My Pillow, businessman[32][33]
- Carla Nelson, state senator[34] (ran for reelection)[35]
- Pete Stauber, U.S. representative for Minnesota's 8th congressional district (ran for reelection)[36][37]
Caucuses and conventions
Caucus
The caucuses took place on February 1, 2022. A caucus is a local meeting where all who intend to vote for the Republican Party are able to select their precinct leadership, participate in a straw poll for governor, write and pass resolutions, and elect delegates to their local Basic Political Organizational Unit (BPOU). Those who were not elected BPOU delegates could become alternates and fill in for delegates who cannot attend the BPOU convention.[38]
BPOU conventions
A BPOU has boundaries based on the county or state senate district a voter resides in. The majority of these took place in March 2022. Elected delegates of each BPOU attended a convention relating to their district to vote on the resolutions passed at the caucus, complete party business, listen to candidates, and elect delegates to the state convention and their corresponding U.S. House District convention.
State convention
The Republican State Convention was held on May 13–14, 2022, in Rochester. 2,200 delegates were elected statewide to decide the Minnesota Republican Party's endorsement in all statewide offices. The endorsed candidate receives the party's backing, including money and resources, ahead of the August 9 primary.[39] Only one Republican, incumbent governor Arne Carlson in 1994, has won the primary without the party's endorsement. (Two Democrats, Mark Dayton and Tim Walz, won the Democratic primary against endorsed candidates.)[40]
At the convention, Scott Jensen won the endorsement with 65% of the vote on the ninth ballot, defeating Kendall Qualls. Mike Murphy, Paul Gazelka, and Neil Shah were eliminated on earlier ballots. All the candidates who contested the endorsement pledged to forego the primary if not endorsed.[40]
Qualls soon honored his pledge by announcing his plans to "return to private life."[41] Rich Stanek, the only major candidate who did not compete for the endorsement, did not file for the primary, leaving Jensen without major opposition.[24] He faced two minor candidates in the August primary.
Endorsements
Results
Jensen
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Scott Jensen | 288,499 | 89.31% | |
| Republican | Joyce Lynne Lacey | 21,308 | 6.60% | |
| Republican | Bob "Again" Carney Jr. | 13,213 | 4.09% | |
| Total votes | 323,020 | 100.0% | ||
Independents and others
Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Steve Patterson, anti-lockdown activist[7]
- Matt Huff
Eliminated in primary
Results
Patterson
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
Paulsen
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
Tie
- 50%
No votes
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grassroots—LC | Steve Patterson | 1,003 | 59.14% | |
| Grassroots—LC | Darrell Paulsen | 693 | 40.86% | |
| Total votes | 1,696 | 100.00% | ||
Legal Marijuana Now primary
Candidates
Nominee
- James McCaskel, community organizer and BLM activist[44]
- David Sandbeck, activist and candidate for Minnesota's 4th congressional district in 2020
Eliminated in primary
- Chris Wright, perennial candidate[7]
- L.C. Lawrence Converse
Results
McCaskel
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
Wright
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
Tie
- 50%
No votes
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legal Marijuana Now | James McCaskel | 1,461 | 51.86% | |
| Legal Marijuana Now | Chris Wright | 1,356 | 48.14% | |
| Total votes | 2,817 | 100.0% | ||
Other parties
- Gabrielle M. Prosser, restaurant worker (Socialist Workers)[7]
- Kevin A. Dwire, perennial candidate
- Hugh McTavish, scientist, entrepreneur and author[45] (Independence-Alliance Party)
- Mike Winter, commercial driver, podcast host, Teamster Union steward and candidate for mayor of Minneapolis in 2021
Withdrew
- Cory Hepola, former WCCO Radio host[46][24] (Forward Party)
- Tamara Uselman, school administrator[47]
- Brandon Millholland-Corcoran[48]
Declined
- Tom Bakk, state senator and DFL candidate for governor in 2010[49]
- Christopher Chamberlin, candidate for governor, senate, and house in 2018[50]
- Richard Painter, University of Minnesota Law School professor, former chief White House ethics lawyer, and DFL candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (ran for Congress)[51][52]
Endorsements
Cory Hepola (withdrew)
Organizations
General election
Campaign
The election's central issues were the economy, rising crime, Walz's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, education, and abortion access following the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
Walz campaigned on his first-term accomplishments, such as middle-class tax cuts, while making abortion rights a prominent focus of the campaign and attacking Jensen on abortion and his COVID-19 skepticism. Jensen attacked Walz over his COVID-19 policies, crime in the Twin Cities, inflation and gas prices, and education performance.[54]
Jensen was criticized for promoting the hoax that schools provided litter boxes to students who identify as furries.[55][56]
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | DFL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Scott Jensen | Tim Walz | |||||
| 1 | August 3, 2022 | Minnesota Farmfest | Blois Olson | [57] | P | P |
| 2 | October 18, 2022 | KTTC/Gray Television | Caitlin Alexander, Justin Betti,
Stacy Steinhagen, Dan Wolfe |
[58] | P | P |
| 3 | October 23, 2022 | KSTP/Hubbard Broadcasting | Lindsey Brown, Tom Hauser,
Laura Lee, Peter Callaghan |
[59] | P | A |
| 4 | October 28, 2022 | Minnesota Public Radio[60] | Mike Mulcahy | [61] | P | P |
| 5 | November 4, 2022 | Twin Cities PBS - Almanac | Eric Eskola, Cathy Wurzer | [62] | P | A |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[63] | Likely D | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[64] | Lean D | November 3, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] | Likely D | October 12, 2022 |
| Politico[66] | Lean D | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[67] | Tossup | June 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[68] | Lean D | May 12, 2022 |
| 538[69] | Likely D | October 17, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[70] | Likely D | November 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
Tim Walz (DFL)
Executive branch officials
- Kamala Harris, 49th vice president of the United States[71]
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States[72]
U.S. senators
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota[73]
- Tina Smith, U.S. senator from Minnesota[74]
Statewide officials
- J. B. Pritzker, governor of Illinois[75]
- Jesse Ventura, former governor of Minnesota (Independent)[76]
State legislators
Newspapers
Organizations
- AFSCME Council 5[79]
- Communications Workers of America[79]
- Education Minnesota[79]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[79]
- Feminist Majority PAC[79]
- Giffords[79]
- Human Rights Campaign[80]
- Inter Faculty Organization[81]
- IUOE Local 49[82]
- LIUNA Minnesota[79]
- Minnesota AFL–CIO[79]
- Minnesota Association of Professional Employees[79]
- Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party[83]
- Minnesota Medical Association[84]
- Minnesota Nurses Association[85]
- National Education Association[79]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[79]
- SEIU Minnesota[79]
- VoteVets.org[79]
Scott Jensen (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
- Kevin Cramer, U.S. senator from North Dakota[87]
Statewide officials
Newspapers
Organizations
- Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association[90]
- National Federation of Independent Business - Minnesota[91]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[92][93]
- Republican Party of Minnesota[94]
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Scott Jensen (R) |
Other [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[95] | Oct. 10–30, 2022 | Nov. 1, 2022 | 48.0% | 43.7% | 8.3% | Walz +4.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight[96] | Sep. 24 – Oct. 30, 2022 | Nov. 4, 2022 | 49.7% | 40.9% | 9.4% | Walz +8.8 |
| Average | 48.9% | 42.3% | 8.8% | Walz +6.6 | ||
Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Scott Jensen (R) |
Hugh McTavish (I-A) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[97][A] | Oct. 26–30, 2022 | 836 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 43% | – | 2% | 4% |
| St. Cloud State University[98] | Oct. 10–30, 2022 | 235 (A) | ± 8% | 56% | 40% | – | 4% | – |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[99] | Oct. 17–19, 2022 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45.8% | 46.3% | 1.4% | 2.5%[c] | 3.9% |
| Embold Research[100][B] | Oct. 10–14, 2022 | 1,585 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 47.0% | 42.4% | 1.3% | 3.3%[d] | 6.0% |
| SurveyUSA[101] | Sep. 30 – Oct. 3, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | – | 4% | 7% |
| Cygnal (R)[102][C] | Sep. 24–26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47.6% | 44.2% | 0.4% | 3.0%[e] | 4.8% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[103] | Sep. 14, 2022 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47.7% | 45.0% | 0.8% | 1.7%[f] | 4.9% |
| Mason-Dixon[104] | Sep. 12–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48.0% | 41.0% | – | 0.8% | 10.3% |
| SurveyUSA[105] | Aug. 30 – Sep. 4, 2022 | 562 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 33% | – | 4% | 12% |
| Gravis Marketing (I-A)[106][D] | Aug. 17–19, 2022 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 53% | 36% | 6% | 5% | – |
| Cygnal (R)[107][C] | Jul. 18–19, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49.8% | 45.6% | – | – | 4.7% |
| Change Research[108][B] | Jun. 3–8, 2022 | 1,551 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 41.8% | 39.8% | 2.7% | 6.6%[g] | 9.0% |
| SurveyUSA[109] | May 5–10, 2022 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 39% | – | 4% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[110] | Jan. 25–30, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 43% | 40% | – | 4% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[111] | Dec. 2–6, 2021 | 506 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 48% | 36% | – | 5% | 11% |
Hypothetical polling
Tim Walz vs. Michelle Benson
Tim Walz vs. Paul Gazelka
Tim Walz vs. Mike Marti
Tim Walz vs. Mike Murphy
Tim Walz vs. Kendall Qualls
Tim Walz vs. Neil Shah
Tim Walz vs. Rich Stanek
Tim Walz vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[112] | August 28–31, 2021 | 1,945 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) |
|
1,312,349 | 52.27% | −1.57% | |
| Republican | 1,119,941 | 44.61% | +2.18% | ||
| Legal Marijuana Now |
|
29,346 | 1.17% | N/A | |
| Grassroots—LC |
|
22,599 | 0.90% | −1.75% | |
| Independence |
|
18,156 | 0.72% | N/A | |
| Socialist Workers |
|
7,241 | 0.29% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,029 | 0.04% | ±0.0% | ||
| Total votes | 2,510,661 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | 2,525,873 | 61.01% | |||
| Registered electors | 4,140,218 | ||||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | |||||
By county
By county | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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By congressional district
Walz and Jensen each won four of eight congressional districts, all of which voted for the same party in the simultaneous House Elections.[114]
| District | Walz | Jensen | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 45% | 52% | Brad Finstad |
| 2nd | 53% | 45% | Angie Craig |
| 3rd | 59% | 38% | Dean Phillips |
| 4th | 68% | 29% | Betty McCollum |
| 5th | 81% | 16% | Ilhan Omar |
| 6th | 40% | 57% | Tom Emmer |
| 7th | 31% | 65% | Michelle Fischbach |
| 8th | 44% | 52% | Pete Stauber |
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - McCaskel with 1.2%, Patterson with 0.9%, and Prosser with 0.4%
- McCaskel (LMN) with 1.4%, Prosser (SW) with 1.0%, and Patterson (GLC) with 0.9%
- McCaskel (LMN) with 1.2%, Prosser (SW) with 1.2%, and Patterson (GLC) with 0.6%
- McCaskel with 1.4%, Patterson with 0.2%, and Prosser with 0.1%
- "The candidate from either one of the legalize marijuana parties (Legal Marijuana Now or Grassroots Legalize Cannabis)"
Partisan clients