2026 United States Senate election in Texas

Background

Incumbent senator John Cornyn, who was seeking a fifth term, faced a competitive primary from attorney general Ken Paxton which progressed to a runoff after no candidate reached a majority in the first round. The two had clashed publicly since 2022, with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine, DREAM Act for DACA beneficiaries and playing a leading role in the passage of the bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school massacre. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton's legal troubles, perceived character flaws and corruption, and his 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House before the Senate later acquitted him of all charges.^{[7][8][9][10]}

The race has been seen as a key contest between the Texas Republican Party's establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction.^[7] In recent years, insurgent hard-right candidates have steadily gained ground, often ousting more traditional GOP officials. Polling reflects this divide: Paxton holds a commanding lead among "Trump Movement" voters, while Cornyn performs better with the smaller group of "Traditional Republicans."^[11] On May 19, 2026, Donald Trump announced his endorsement for Paxton,^[12] while previously describing both Paxton and Cornyn as good friends.^[13] His influence was widely seen as a key factor in determining the primary winner.^[14] He had previously criticized Cornyn as a "hopeless" RINO (Republican in name only) for supporting the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, an attack Paxton's campaign highlighted in their ads.^[15][16] Ted Cruz, the junior senator, avoided taking a side in the primary, though he previously endorsed Cornyn in 2020.^[17]

The election takes place amid efforts by the state Republican Party to restrict its primary to registered members. Legislation to allow closed primaries failed, prompting the party to sue the state, claiming the current law violates the First Amendment.^[18] Despite serving as the state's attorney general, Paxton declined to defend the law in court, drawing criticism from those who argued he would gain electorally from a closed primary.^[19]

Candidates

First round

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Republican primary results^[153]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	John Cornyn (incumbent)	910,382	42.0
	Republican	Ken Paxton	878,564	40.5
	Republican	Wesley Hunt	293,250	13.5
	Republican	Sara Canady	26,355	1.2
	Republican	Anna Bender	24,167	1.1
	Republican	Gulrez Khan	15,873	0.7
	Republican	John Adefope	9,284	0.4
	Republican	Virgil Bierschwale	9,035	0.4
Total votes			2,166,910	100.0

Close

Cornyn led Paxton narrowly in the primary election, garnering 42.0% of the vote to Paxton's 40.5%, while Hunt placed a distant third with 13.5% of the vote.^[153][154] Support for Cornyn and Paxton was relatively evenly spread across the state, though Cornyn performed slightly better in urban areas, especially Dallas and Austin, while Paxton performed slightly better in rural areas, particularly in East Texas.^[155] Hunt performed slightly better in regions which backed Paxton, suggesting his presence on the ballot hurt Cornyn more than Paxton. Even in Hunt's own congressional district, he came in third with barely over 20% of the vote.^[156]

In the days leading up to the March 3 primary, Paxton suggested he could win outright and avoid a runoff. However, Cornyn overperformed expectations in what The Texas Tribune described as a "better-than-expected showing". Rolando Garcia, a member of the State Republican Executive Committee who supported Hunt in the primary but planned to back Paxton in the runoff, said the result should alarm the Paxton campaign.^[157] On March 5, The Atlantic reported that Trump advisers expected the president to endorse Cornyn in the runoff election after his unexpectedly strong performance in the first round of voting.^[158]

Runoff

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Republican primary runoff results^[153]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Ken Paxton	888,196	63.8
	Republican	John Cornyn (incumbent)	503,438	36.2
Total votes			1,391,634	100.0

Close

Paxton defeated Cornyn with 64% of the runoff vote, becoming the first challenger to defeat an incumbent senator in a primary election in the state since Lloyd Bentsen defeated Ralph Yarborough in 1970.^[227] Cornyn became the second senator in the 2026 election cycle to lose renomination, after Bill Cassidy in Louisiana. His loss largely mirrored Cassidy's, performing best in the state's most Democratic-leaning areas, as well as wealthier suburban areas. Excluding sparsely populated Kenedy County, Cornyn only won Travis County, home to the state capital Austin, a heavily left-leaning area, while narrowly losing Dallas County, home to the wealthy Park Cities and Southern Methodist University.^[228] Paxton's runoff performance was the largest for a second-place finisher in a U.S. Senate primary in Texas, eclipsing Charles A. Culberson's previous record in 1916.^[229]

Background

Democrats, who have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, see an opening in the state due to the bitter and divisive primary fight in the Republican side, a potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration, negative approval ratings for President Trump in Texas, as well as recent polling numbers showing competitive matchups.^{[230][231][232][233]}

Colin Allred, who unsuccessfully ran against incumbent Republican senator Ted Cruz in 2024, exited the race on December 8, 2025, which precipitated Jasmine Crockett's entry into the race.^[234]

Campaign

Crockett entered the race with high name recognition and strong polling numbers, but her launch on the last day to file meant she had limited time for campaigning statewide.^[235] According to polling data in February 2026 prior to the primaries, Crockett originally had a favorability percentage of 23%, and an unfavorable percentage of 25% while Talarico came in at 18% favorable and 9% unfavorable.^[236][237] She did not hire a campaign manager, and focused on advertising over a staffed field operation.^[238]

Crockett and Talarico participated in a debate on January 24, 2026, hosted by the AFL-CIO in Georgetown. During the debate, both candidates largely aligned on policy and engaged in limited direct attacks. Crockett defended her "firebrand" style as necessary for the political moment, while Talarico emphasized a more measured approach and his perceived electability against Ken Paxton.^[239] Talarico later faced controversy after a social media influencer alleged he had referred to former rival Colin Allred as a "mediocre Black man" in comparison to Crockett in a private conversation; Talarico disputed the claim as a mischaracterization. Allred subsequently endorsed Crockett and criticized Talarico.^[240] The episode further exposed the racial tension between each candidate's base of support, with Crockett performing best among Black voters, Democrats' strongest voter base, and Talarico performing best among White and Latino voters, demographics which hold far more swing voters.^[241]

On February 16, Talarico was scheduled to appear on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. According to Colbert, however, CBS did not allow him to air the interview nor mention the cancellation on-air based on a recently revised interpretation of the FCC's equal-time rule, although he did discuss it during that night's episode in spite of FCC threats. Colbert later posted the interview to the show's YouTube page.^[242] The interview gained millions of views online, while Talarico fundraised $2.5 million in the aftermath and increased his name recognition as early voting began ahead of the March 3 primary. Analysts largely viewed the campaign as one based on personality and electability rather than ideology.^[243]

After the primary, Crockett conceded to Talarico,^[244] announcing support for his candidacy, but she declined to actively campaign for him.^[245]

Candidates

Endorsements

Debates

Fundraising

Polling

Aggregate polls

Results

James Talarico won the Democratic primary with 52.4% of the vote.^[312] After a dispute concerning voting hours in Dallas and Williamson Counties on the night of the primary, Crockett conceded the race on March 4.^[313] The dispute in Dallas County arose from the county Republican Party's decision not to use countywide voting centers, where voters can cast ballots at any location, on Election Day, as Texas law requires both parties to agree in order to implement them.^[314] On March 17, the Dallas County GOP announced it would use countywide voting centers for the runoff.^[315]

Issues with a ballot scanning and tabulation machine in Newton County led to the county clerk writing in a court filing that its Democratic statewide primary results, with Hassan winning the county, were "skewed" and that a recount was required, which eventually had to be done by hand due to the scanning issues persisting,^[316][317] with the revised results showing Crockett winning the county.

Democrats cast more primary votes in a midterm election than Republicans for the first time since 2002.^[156] The results largely mirrored those of the 2020 primary for this seat, which also pitted a Black Democrat from Dallas (Royce West) against a White Democrat from the Austin area (M. J. Hegar). Crockett performed best among Black voters, winning by large margins in East Texas, as well as by smaller margins in the urban centers of Dallas and Harris counties. Talarico won the White and Hispanic vote, dominating in the Austin metro area, and winning the state's remaining rural areas, including the heavily-Hispanic Rio Grande Valley.^[155]

Campaign

Following the May Republican runoff, both nominees quickly pivoted to the general election.^[320] Paxton's victory was welcomed by Democrats who viewed him as a weaker opponent, leading several nonpartisan forecasters to rate the race as more competitive.^[227] Talarico adopted a more aggressive strategy, highlighting allegations that led to Paxton's impeachment by fellow Republicans.^[321] Paxton portrayed Talarico as an extremist, emphasizing culture war issues and gender, while criticizing his statement that "God is non-binary" and questioning his masculinity.^[322][323] Paxton also repeatedly called Talarico a vegan, claiming "you can't get elected as a vegan in Texas," prompting Talarico to release photos and videos of himself eating meat and other non-vegan foods at campaign events.^[324] In June, Talarico criticized the Attorney General's office over its handling of a child sexual abuse case involving former attorney Adam Hoffman during Paxton's tenure.^[325] After a mistrial, Hoffman received a plea deal critics called "unusually lenient" and an "Epstein-style sweetheart deal," as it did not require him to register as a sex offender.^[326] Talarico and John Cornyn had previously aired campaign ads criticizing Paxton over the case.^[327][328]

Both Talarico and Paxton have faced challenges unifying their parties after the primaries, with limited support from former rivals exposing weaknesses in their coalitions.^[329] Talarico has sought to bolster support among Black voters after defeating Jasmine Crockett, who skipped the state Democratic convention and declined to commit to campaigning for him, raising concerns about Black turnout.^[330] Paxton has struggled with moderate Republicans who backed John Cornyn, with polls showing some Cornyn voters supporting Talarico.^[329] Cornyn has also declined to fundraise for Paxton, instead focusing on competitive Senate races in other states.^[331]

In part to rally support behind candidates such as Paxton, the Republican Party hosted its first ever midterm national convention in Dallas on September 9 and 10.^[332] After the midterm convention, Paxton said in a private conversation that the convention had a negative effect for the Republican Party.^[333]

On July 16, the Paxton and Talarico campaigns announced negotiations for up to three general election debates.^[334] If held, they would mark Paxton's first debates since becoming a statewide elected official.^{[335][336][337]} By September, Talarico had accepted a fourth invitation to a debate as Paxton had remained noncommittal, but insisted that they were still negotiating and expected to participate in at least one debate before the election.^[338] Responding to a challange issued by Talarico to appear on the channel, a fifth debate invitation was issued by Fox News.^[339][340]

Election administration

The election is taking place amidst a broader push by the Trump administration to restrict mail-in voting, although these efforts are currently mired in court proceedings.^[341] On September 1, commissioners in Tarrant County, Texas's third-largest county, voted to close roughly a third of its polling locations, a year after cutting early-voting sites in half, citing cost savings at low-turnout locations. Critics warned the closures could increase travel times and suppress turnout.^[342] Later that month, Votebeat reported that the Department of Public Safety had failed to distribute nearly 200,000 voter registrations to counties over the course of the past year due to a technical error, sparking a bipartisan outcry.^[343] By the beginning of October, the reported size of the backlog had neared 600,000 registrations.^[344] The backlog was sent to counties all at once, with many of the state's urban counties receiving tens of thousands one month before early voting was set to begin.^[343] The state agreed to reimburse counties for the overtime pay incurred processing the glut of applications.^[345] Observers and election experts highlighted the debacle as an example of the difficulties involved in registering to vote in Texas, one of the only states in the country to not offer universal online voter registration.^[346]

Predictions

Post-primary endorsements