2019 North Carolina's 3rd congressional district special election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 | |||||||||||||||||
September 10, 2019
| |||||||||||||||||
North Carolina's 3rd congressional district | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||
 County results Murphy: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Thomas: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
.jpeg)
.jpg)
| Elections in North Carolina |
|---|
 |
A special election was held on September 10, 2019, to fill the vacancy in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in the United States House of Representatives for the remainder of the 116th United States Congress. Walter B. Jones Jr., the incumbent representative, died on February 10, 2019.[1]
Parties held primaries to decide their nominees. In order to win a party nomination outright, under current state law, a candidate must exceed 30% of the vote to avoid a runoff (presuming that the second-place finisher calls for that runoff). There must be 30 days of absentee voting prior to each election, according to state law.[2] Filing began on March 4 and ended March 8, as set by Governor Roy Cooper. Twenty-six candidates filed with the State Board of Elections by the filing deadline: 17 Republicans, 6 Democrats, 2 Libertarians, and 1 Constitution Party candidate.[3] All candidates filed are affiliated with a political party.[4] Five candidates advanced after the first primary elections: two Republicans, one Democrat, one Libertarian, and one Constitution Party candidate.
Cooper set the primary date of April 30, in which the Democrats selected Allen Thomas, Libertarians selected Tim Harris, and in the Constitution Party primary businessman Greg Holt won by default, but no Republican achieved 30% of the vote. Voting for the Republican primary runoff occurred on Tuesday, July 9, between two candidates that are both physicians, Greg Murphy and Joan Perry.[5] Approximately 70 minutes after polls closed, Murphy was declared the winner by the Associated Press.
The general election was held on September 10, 2019. Murphy won the seat.[6][7]
With the decision by the State Board of Elections to hold a new election to redo the 2018 U.S. House election in North Carolina's 9th district, this became one of two congressional district special elections in North Carolina in 2019, the other being the 9th district's special election held on the same day. This was the first time two U.S. House special elections were held in the same state on the same day (not on Election Day) since the May 3, 2008, elections in Louisiana's 1st district and 6th district.[8]
Candidates
Nominee
- Greg Murphy, state representative from the 9th district[9][10]
Eliminated in runoff
- Joan Perry, pediatrician[11]
Eliminated in primary
- Kevin Baiko, doctor[11]
- Paul Beaumont, Currituck County Commissioner[11]
- Graham Boyd, farmer[12]
- Celeste Cairns, accountant[11]
- Gary Ceres, library technician[12]
- Chimer Davis Clark Jr., small businessman[12]
- Don Cox, singer[13]
- Francis De Luca, former president of Civitas Institute[13]
- Phil Law, Marine Corps veteran and candidate for U.S. Representative in 2016 and 2018[14][15]
- Jeff Moore, small businessman[16]
- Michele Nix, Vice Chair of the North Carolina Republican Party[17][18]
- Mike Payment, Currituck County Commissioner[13]
- Eric Rouse, Lenoir County Commissioner[13]
- Phil Shepard, state representative from the 15th district[14]
- Michael Speciale, state representative from the 3rd district[14]
Declined
- Harry Brown, state senator from the 6th district and incumbent North Carolina Senate Majority Leader[9][19]
- George G. Cleveland, state representative from the 14th district[20]
- Scott Dacey, former vice-chairman of the Craven County Board of Commissioners and candidate for U.S. Representative in 2018[17]
- Pete Gilbert, Pasquotank County Republican Party Chairman[21]
- Ed Goodwin, state representative from the 1st district[21]
- Taylor Griffin, former aide to Jesse Helms and candidate for U.S. Representative in 2014 and 2016[17]
- Bobby Hanig, state representative from the 6th district[22]
- Chris Humphrey, state representative from the 12th district[20]
- Keith Kidwell, state representative from the 79th district[20]
- Pat McElraft, state representative from the 13th district[20]
- Joe McLaughlin, former Onslow County Commissioner, candidate for U.S. Representative in 2008, candidate for North Carolina Commissioner of Insurance in 2016, and candidate for state representative in 2018[20]
- Carl Mischka, chairman of the 3rd congressional district Republican Party Executive Committee[17]
- Frank Palombo, candidate for U.S. Representative in 2012[20]
- Norman W. Sanderson, state senator from the 2nd district[20]
- Sandy Smith, small businesswoman[23]
- Bob Steinburg, state senator from the 1st district[21]
- Paul Wright, Soil and Water Conservation District Supervisor Area 5 Dare County[24]
- Ashley Woolard, 2010 Repubulican nominee for US Congress (NC-01)2010 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina, 2012 US presidential elector NC Third Congressional District List of 2012 United States presidential electors, former chairman Beaufort County Republican Party
Endorsements
Organizations
- Women for Trump[26]
Politicians
- Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City[27]
- Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator[28]
- Mark Meadows, U.S. representative[29]
- Jim Jordan, U.S. representative[30]
Organizations
- Susan B. Anthony List[31]
- Winning for Women[32]
- FreedomWorks[33]
- Maggie's List[34]
Politicians
- Liz Cheney, U.S. representative[35]
- George Holding, U.S. representative[36]
- Paul Stam, former state representative from the 37th district[37]
- Elise Stefanik, U.S. representative[38]
First round
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Celeste Cairns |
Phil Law |
Jeff Moore |
Greg Murphy |
Joan Perry |
Eric Rouse |
Phil Shepard |
Michael Speciale |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Media & Research (R)[39][A] | April 24–27, 2019 | 253 | ± 6.1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 9% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 5%[a] | 44% |
Results
- 10–20%
- 30–40%
- 60–70%
- 10–20%
- 30–40%
- 50–60%
- 50–60%
- 10–20%
- 20–30%
- 40–50%
- 10–20%
- 20–30%
- 10–20%
- 20–30%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Murphy | 9,530 | 22.51 | |
| Republican | Joan Perry | 6,536 | 15.44 | |
| Republican | Phil Shepard | 5,101 | 12.05 | |
| Republican | Michael Speciale | 4,022 | 9.50 | |
| Republican | Phil Law | 3,690 | 8.72 | |
| Republican | Eric Rouse | 3,258 | 7.70 | |
| Republican | Jeff Moore | 2,280 | 5.39 | |
| Republican | Francis De Luca | 1,670 | 3.95 | |
| Republican | Celeste Cairns | 1,467 | 3.47 | |
| Republican | Chimer Davis Clark Jr. | 1,092 | 2.58 | |
| Republican | Michele Nix | 915 | 2.16 | |
| Republican | Graham Boyd | 897 | 2.12 | |
| Republican | Paul Beaumont | 805 | 1.90 | |
| Republican | Mike Payment | 537 | 1.27 | |
| Republican | Don Cox | 251 | 0.59 | |
| Republican | Kevin Baiko | 171 | 0.40 | |
| Republican | Gary Ceres | 108 | 0.26 | |
| Total votes | 42,330 | 100.0 | ||
Runoff
Results
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 50–60%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Murphy | 21,444 | 59.7 | |
| Republican | Joan Perry | 14,472 | 40.3 | |
| Total votes | 35,916 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Allen Thomas, former mayor of Greenville and executive director of Global TransPark[40]
Eliminated
- Richard Bew, former U.S. Marine Corps colonel[41][42]
- Gregory Humphrey, former journalist[11]
- Ike Johnson, Democratic nominee for State House district 14 in 2018[43]
- Dana Outlaw, mayor of New Bern[44]
- Ernest T. Reeves, Democratic nominee for North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in 2016[11]
Declined
- Ollie Nelson, retired U.S. Marine, educator, and pastor[23]
- George Parrott, businessman[45]
- Scott Thomas, District Attorney for North Carolina's 4th prosecutorial district[46]
Endorsements
Politicians
- Seth Moulton, U.S. Representative (D-MA)[47]
Individuals
- Amy McGrath, retired marine fighter pilot and nominee for KY-6 in 2018[48]
- Richard Ojeda, former West Virginia State Senator and nominee for WV-3 in 2018[49]
Organizations
- Equality North Carolina
- Serve America[50]
- VoteVets.org[51]
Politicians
- G. K. Butterfield, U.S. Representative (D-NC)[52]
Results
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Allen Thomas | 12,933 | 49.96 | |
| Democratic | Richard Bew | 6,532 | 25.23 | |
| Democratic | Dana Outlaw | 3,268 | 12.63 | |
| Democratic | Ike Johnson | 1,774 | 6.85 | |
| Democratic | Gregory Humphrey | 695 | 2.68 | |
| Democratic | Ernest T. Reeves | 683 | 2.64 | |
| Total votes | 25,885 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Shannon Bray, U.S. Navy veteran, author, cybersecurity expert[53]
- Tim Harris, U.S. Marine Corps veteran, IT engineer, candidate for North Carolina Senate for the 2nd district in 2018[54]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Tim Harris | 75 | 55.97 | |
| Libertarian | Shannon Bray | 59 | 44.03 | |
| Total votes | 134 | 100.0 | ||
Constitution primary
General election
During the early voting period for this election, Hurricane Dorian battered the eastern coast of the United States, necessitating early voting to be halted in several counties on the Outer Banks until the storm had passed. This also happened in the election for North Carolina's 9th congressional district.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[55] | Safe R | August 26, 2019 |
| Inside Elections[56] | Safe R | September 4, 2019 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[57] | Likely R | September 5, 2019 |
Endorsements
Federal politicians
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[58]
- Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States[59]
- Thom Tillis, U.S. senator (R-NC)[60]
- Mark Meadows, U.S. Representative (R-NC)[29]
- Jim Jordan, U.S. Representative (R-OH)[61]
Individuals
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman[62]
- Kayleigh McEnany, political commentator[63]
Organizations
Federal politicians
- Alma Adams, U.S. representative (D-NC)[66]
- G. K. Butterfield, U.S. representative (D-NC)[52]
- Bob Etheridge, former U.S. representative (D-NC)[67]
- Julian Castro, former U.S. secretary of housing and urban development[68]
Statewide, and local politicians
- Toby Fitch, state senator[67]
- Jim Hunt, former governor of North Carolina[69]
- Erica D. Smith, state senator[70]
Organizations
- AFL–CIO[67]
- Equality North Carolina[71]
- Sierra Club North Carolina Chapter[72]
- National Education Association[67]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Murphy (R) |
Allen Thomas (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAJ Solutions (R)[73][B] | August 26–28, 2019 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 3%[b] | 6% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
|
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of August 21, 2019 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Greg Murphy (R) | $901,590.47 | $803,487.06 | $98,103.41 |
| Allen Thomas (D) | $564,575.49 | $476,025.52 | $88,549.97 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[75] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Murphy | 70,407 | 61.74 | −38.26 | |
| Democratic | Allen Thomas | 42,738 | 37.47 | N/A | |
| Constitution | Greg Holt | 507 | 0.44 | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Tim Harris | 394 | 0.35 | N/A | |
| Total votes | '114,046' | '100' | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Despite the clear victory, 61.7% is the lowest Republican vote share in this district since 2012.