2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Wisconsin. The party primaries were held on August 9, 2022. Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson won election to a third term, defeating Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes[1] by 26,718 votes—a one-point margin of victory. In this election, Johnson won 5 counties he lost in 2016.

Quick facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
← 2016
November 8, 2022
2028 →
Turnout56.7% Decrease
 
Nominee Ron Johnson Mandela Barnes
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,337,185 1,310,467
Percentage 50.41% 49.41%
Johnson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Barnes:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Ron Johnson
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Ron Johnson
Republican

Close

In 2016, Johnson had pledged to serve only two terms in the Senate. He reversed this decision in 2022.[2] The race was one of the most competitive of the cycle, and it followed considerable Democratic success in recent statewide elections. In 2018, Democrats won every statewide contest on the ballot, including the election for the state's other Senate seat. This was one of the two Republican-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.[3]

Barnes led in most polls during the summer of 2022. In the final weeks prior to the election, Johnson took a lead of more than three points in the polling average. Though Johnson ultimately prevailed, this election was the closest of his three Senate victories. This was the first Senate election in Wisconsin since 1998 in which the winning candidate was of a different party than the winner of the concurrent gubernatorial election.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • David Schroeder, former educator

Disqualified

Withdrawn

  • John Berman, electronic hardware designer, test engineer, and candidate for U.S. Senate (Minnesota and Kansas) in 2020[8]

Declined

Endorsements

Ron Johnson

U.S. executive branch officials

Organizations

Results

Results by county
  Johnson
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ron Johnson (incumbent) 563,871 83.7
Republican David Schroeder 109,917 16.3
Total votes 673,788 100.0
Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Kou Lee, restaurant owner[27]
  • Adam Murphy, business owner[28]
  • Steven Olikara, founder and CEO of Millennial Action Project[29][30]
  • Peter Peckarsky, attorney and candidate for chair of the Democratic National Committee in 2017[28]
  • Darrell Williams, Wisconsin Emergency Management administrator[31]

Did not file

Withdrew

Declined

Fundraising

More information Candidate, Unitemized (<$200) individual contributions ...
Candidate Unitemized (<$200) individual contributions Itemized (>$200) individual contributions Self funding Coverage ending
Mandela Barnes $2,668,973.10 $3,305,480.72 $0.00 Coverage ending: 06/30/2022[47]
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Endorsements

Mandela Barnes

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Sarah Godlewski (withdrawn)

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Alex Lasry (withdrawn)

State legislators

Local officials

Party officials

Labor unions

Tom Nelson (withdrawn)

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Labor unions

Individuals

Steven Olikara

State officials

Federal officials

Judicial officials

State legislators

Organizations

Individuals

  • Akon, singer-songwriter and entrepreneur[131]
  • Andrew Yang, candidate in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries and the 2021 New York City Democratic mayoral primary[132]

Polling

Graphical summary

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Mandela
Barnes		 Sarah
Godlewski		 Alex
Lasry		 Tom
Nelson		 Other Undecided
July 29, 2022 Godlewski withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes
July 27, 2022 Lasry withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes
July 25, 2022 Nelson withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes
Impact Research (D)[133][A] July 12–17, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 12% 25% 5% – 18%
Change Research (D)[134][B] July 1–7, 2022 560 (LV) ± 4.6% 40% 12% 16% 6% 1%[b] 22%
Marquette University[135] June 14–20, 2022 381 (LV) ± 6.2% 25% 9% 21% 7% 1%[c] 36%
Normington Petts (D)[136][C] May 18–22, 2022 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 34% 18% 31% 5% – 12%
Marquette University[137] April 19–24, 2022 311 (LV) ± 6.6% 19% 7% 16% 5% 2%[d] 49%
Impact Research (D)[138][A] March 16–23, 2022 449 (LV) ± 4.6% 38% 9% 17% 8% 3% 26%
Normington Petts (D)[139][C] February 23–27, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 7% 27% 7% – 24%
Marquette University[140] February 22–27, 2022 362 (LV) ± 5.7% 23% 3% 13% 5% 5%[e] 49%
Impact Research (D)[141][A] December 8–16, 2021 842 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 10% 11% 8% 3% 29%
Data for Progress (D)[142][D] November 11–15, 2021 524 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 5% 16% 6% 5%[f] 29%
Normington Petts (D)[139][C] November 2021 – (LV) – 37% 5% 15% 7% – 36%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[143][A] August 28–30, 2021 698 (LV) ± 3.7% 37% 7% 5% 8% 3%[g] 38%
Normington Petts (D)[139][C] August 2021 – (LV) – 43% 5% 4% 7% – 41%
Close

Results

Results by county
  Barnes
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mandela Barnes 390,279 77.8
Democratic Alex Lasry (withdrawn) 44,609 8.9
Democratic Sarah Godlewski (withdrawn) 40,555 8.1
Democratic Tom Nelson (withdrawn) 10,995 2.2
Democratic Steven Olikara 5,619 1.1
Democratic Darrell Williams 3,646 0.7
Democratic Kou Lee 3,434 0.7
Democratic Peter Peckarsky 2,446 0.5
Total votes 501,583 100.0
Close

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[144] Lean R November 4, 2022
Inside Elections[145] Tilt R April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[146] Lean R March 1, 2022
Politico[147] Tossup April 1, 2022
RCP[148] Tossup January 10, 2022
Fox News[149] Lean R May 12, 2022
DDHQ[150] Likely R August 17, 2022
538[151] Likely R October 20, 2022
The Economist[152] Likely R November 1, 2022
Close

Debates

More information No., Date ...
2022 United States Senate general election in Wisconsin debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Ron Johnson Mandela Barnes
1 Oct. 7, 2022 Wisconsin Broadcasters Association Jill Geisler [153] P P
2 Oct. 13, 2022 Marquette University Charles Benson
Shannon Sims		 [154] P P
Close

Endorsements

Ron Johnson (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

State officials

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Organizations

Mandela Barnes (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Ron
Johnson (R)		 Mandela
Barnes (D)		 Undecided
[h]		 Margin
RealClearPolitics[189] October 24 – November 5, 2022 November 8, 2022 50.2% 46.6% 3.2% Johnson +3.6
FiveThirtyEight[190] August 15 – November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 50.4% 47.0% 2.6% Johnson +3.4
270toWin[191] November 3–7, 2022 November 7, 2022 50.2% 46.6% 3.2% Johnson +3.6
Average 50.3% 46.7% 3.0% Johnson +3.6
Close

Graphical summary

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Ron
Johnson (R)		 Mandela
Barnes (D)		 Other Undecided
Civiqs[192] November 4–7, 2022 739 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 49% – 1%
Research Co.[193] November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 51% 45% – 4%
Data for Progress (D)[194] November 2–5, 2022 1,504 (LV) ± 2.0% 53% 47% – –
The Trafalgar Group (R)[195] November 2–4, 2022 1,095 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 47% – 3%
Marquette University[196] October 24 – November 1, 2022 802 (RV) ± 4.6% 48% 45% 5%[i] 1%
679 (LV) ± 4.8% 50% 48% 1%[j] 1%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[197][A] October 27–31, 2022 888 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 48% – 6%
Siena College[198] October 27–31, 2022 655 (LV) ± 4.8% 47% 45% 2%[k] 6%
Fox News[199] October 26–30, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 45% 3%[l] 5%
Wick Insights[200] October 26–30, 2022 1,089 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 46% 2%[m] 2%
Emerson College[201] October 27–29, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 46% 2%[m] 3%
51% 46% 3%[n] –
Patriot Polling[202] October 20–23, 2022 801 (RV) – 52% 43% – 5%
Data for Progress (D)[203] October 14–22, 2022 1,376 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 46% – 2%
CNN/SSRS[204] October 13–17, 2022 905 (RV) ± 4.2% 45% 48% 5%[o] 1%
714 (LV) ± 4.5% 50% 49% 1%[p] –
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[205][A] October 7–11, 2022 874 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 48% – 5%
Marquette University[206] October 3–9, 2022 801 (RV) ± 4.3% 47% 47% 5%[q] 2%
652 (LV) ± 4.8% 52% 46% 2%[r] 1%
YouGov/CBS News[207] October 3–7, 2022 1,138 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 49% – 1%
Public Policy Polling (D)[208] September 26–27, 2022 574 (V) – 47% 47% – 6%
Fox News[209] September 22–26, 2022 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% 3%[s] 5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[210] September 18–25, 2022 1399 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 46% – 5%
Data for Progress (D)[211] September 20–23, 2022 999 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% – 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[212] September 15–19, 2022 1087 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 47% – 5%
Emerson College[213] September 16–18, 2022 860 (LV) ± 3.27% 48% 44% 3% 6%
Big Data Poll (R)[214] September 17–18, 2022 852 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 46% – –
Siena College[215] September 14–15, 2022 651 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 48% 2%[k] 4%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[216][E] September 11–13, 2022 800 (LV) – 49% 45% – 6%
Civiqs[217] September 10–13, 2022 780 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 48% 1% 2%
Marquette University[218] September 6–11, 2022 801 (RV) ± 4.3% 48% 47% – 5%
632 (LV) ± 4.7% 49% 48% – 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[219] August 22–25, 2022 1,091 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 49% – 4%
Fox News[220] August 12–16, 2022 1,006 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 50% 1% 4%
Marquette University[221] August 10–15, 2022 811 (RV) ± 4.2% 44% 51% 1% 4%
713 (LV) ± 4.5% 45% 52% 0% 3%
Marquette University[222] June 14–20, 2022 803 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 46% 1% 8%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[223][A] September 8–11, 2021 756 (LV) ± 3.6% 43% 43% – 14%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Ron Johnson vs. Sarah Godlewski

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Ron
Johnson (R)		 Sarah
Godlewski (D)		 Other Undecided
Marquette University[222] June 14–20, 2022 803 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 45% 2% 10%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[224][A] September 8–11, 2021 756 (LV) ± 3.6% 44% 41% – 15%
Close

Ron Johnson vs. Alex Lasry

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Ron
Johnson (R)		 Alex
Lasry (D)		 Other Undecided
Marquette University[222] June 14–20, 2022 803 (RV) ± 4.3% 45% 42% 2% 11%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[224][A] September 8–11, 2021 756 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 41% – 14%
Close

Ron Johnson vs. Tom Nelson

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Ron
Johnson (R)		 Tom
Nelson (D)		 Other Undecided
Marquette University[222] June 14–20, 2022 803 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 44% 2% 11%
Change Research (D)[225][F] March 25–27, 2021 1,723 (LV) ± 2.6% 44% 48% – 5%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin[25]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Ron Johnson (incumbent) 1,337,185 50.41% +0.24%
Democratic Mandela Barnes 1,310,467 49.41% +2.60%
Independent Adam Paul (write-in) 67 0.00% N/A
Write-in 4,758 0.18% +0.13%
Total votes 2,652,477 100.0%
Republican hold
Close

By county

More information By county, County ...
Close

By congressional district

Johnson won six of eight congressional districts.[227]

More information District, Johnson ...
District Johnson Barnes Representative
1st 52% 48% Bryan Steil
2nd 28% 72% Mark Pocan
3rd 53% 47% Ron Kind (117th Congress)
Derrick Van Orden (118th Congress)
4th 23% 77% Gwen Moore
5th 63% 37% Scott L. Fitzgerald
6th 59% 41% Glenn Grothman
7th 61% 39% Tom Tiffany
8th 59% 41% Mike Gallagher
Close

See also

Notes

  1. [a]
    Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. [b]
    Lee, Olikara, and Williams with 0%
  3. [c]
    Peckarsky with 1%; Lewis, Murphy, and Olikara with 0%
  4. [d]
    Lewis and Peckarsky with 1%; Murphy and Williams with 0%
  5. [e]
    Lewis and Murphy with 2%; Battino with 1%; Pecarsky and Williams with 0%
  6. [f]
    "A different candidate" with 3%; Battino and Murphy with 1%; Olikara with 0%
  7. [g]
    Battino, Lewis, and Olikara with 1%
  8. [h]
    Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  9. [i]
    "Refused" with 3%; "Neither" with 2%
  10. [j]
    "Refused" with 1%
  11. [k]
    "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  12. [l]
    "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  13. [m]
    "Someone else" with 2%
  14. [n]
    "Someone else" with 3%
  15. [o]
    "Neither" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
  16. [p]
    "Neither" with 1%
  17. [q]
    "Neither" with 4%; "Refused" with 1%
  18. [r]
    "Neither" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  19. [s]
    "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    Poll conducted for Barnes's campaign
  2. [B]
    This poll was sponsored by 314 Action Fund.
  3. [C]
    Poll conducted for Lasry's campaign
  4. [D]
    Poll conducted for Way to Lead
  5. [E]
    This poll was sponsored by the NRSC.
  6. [F]
    This poll was sponsored by Nelson's campaign.

References

External links

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