2025 Canadian federal election in Manitoba

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Registered950,577
Turnout639,282 (67.25%) Increase5.25%[1]
2025 Canadian federal election in Manitoba


All 14 Manitoban seats in the House of Commons
Registered950,577
Turnout639,282 (67.25%) Increase5.25%[1]
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Pierre Poilievre Mark Carney Jagmeet Singh
Party Conservative Liberal New Democratic
Leader since September 10, 2022 March 9, 2025 October 1, 2017
Last election 7 seats, 39.2% 4 seats, 27.9% 3 seats, 23.0%
Seats before 7 4 3
Seats won 7 6 1
Seat change Steady 0 Increase 2 Decrease 2
Popular vote 296,166 260,610 70,574
Percentage 46.3% 40.8% 11.0%
Swing Increase 7.1% Increase 12.9% Decrease 12.0%

Prime minister before election

Mark Carney
Liberal

Prime minister after election

Mark Carney
Liberal

In the 2025 Canadian federal election, 14 members of Parliament were elected to the House of Commons from the province of Manitoba (4.1% of all members).

The 2025 Canadian federal election was the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons increased from 338 seats to 343 seats. Manitoba's seat allocation stayed the same at 14 seats. This ensures that the average population per constituency in Manitoba is 95,868 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which is 11,980 less people per electoral district than the national average.[2]

Timeline

Changes in Manitoban seats held (2021–2025)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Winnipeg South Centre December 12, 2022 Jim Carr  Liberal Died in office June 19, 2023 Ben Carr  Liberal
Portage—Lisgar February 28, 2023 Candice Bergen  Conservative Resigned June 19, 2023 Branden Leslie  Conservative
Elmwood—Transcona March 31, 2024 Daniel Blaikie  New Democratic Resigned to work with Premier of Manitoba Wab Kinew September 16, 2024 Leila Dance  New Democratic

Predictions

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[a]
Sample
size[b]
Polling method[c] Lead
Probe ResearchApril 14, 2025[3]43401511N/a± 3.5 pp800IVR + online3
Probe ResearchMarch 16, 2025[4]4442922N/a± 3.1 pp1,000IVR + online2
Probe ResearchFebruary 6, 2025[5]28452232N/a± 4.0 pp600IVR + online17
Probe ResearchDecember 10, 2024[6]19522422N/a± 3.1 pp1,000IVR + online28
Probe ResearchSeptember 15, 2024[7]21502423N/a± 3.1 pp1,000IVR + online26
Probe ResearchMarch 18, 2024[8]2347262N/a1± 3.1 pp1,000IVR + online21

Results

Summary

Manitoban summary seat results in the 2025 Canadian federal election
Party Votes Vote % Vote +/- Seats Seat +/-
Conservative 296,166
46.3%
Increase 7.1pp
7 / 14(50%)
Steady 0
Liberal 260,610
40.8%
Increase 12.9pp
6 / 14(43%)
Increase 2
New Democratic 70,574
11.0%
Decrease 12.0pp
1 / 14(7%)
Decrease 2
People's 6,103
1.0%
Decrease 6.6pp
0 / 14(0%)
Steady 0
Green 4,678
0.7%
Decrease 1.0pp
0 / 14(0%)
Steady 0
Independents and minor parties 1,151
0.2%
Decrease 0.5pp
0 / 14(0%)
Steady 0
Total 639,282
100%
14 / 14(100%)
Steady 0

[9]

Comparison with national results

Results by party
Party Popular vote % Seats in caucus
MB Natl. diff.
Conservative 46.3 41.3 +5.0
7 / 144(5%)
Liberal 40.8 43.7 -2.9
6 / 169(4%)
New Democratic 11.0 6.3 +4.7
1 / 7(14%)
People's 1.0 0.7 +0.3 no caucus
Green 0.7 1.2 -0.5
0 / 1(0%)
  Total
14 / 343(4%)

Student vote results

The student vote is a Mock election that runs parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results.[10]

Manitoban summary results in the 2025 Canadian Student Vote
Party Votes Vote % Vote +/- Seats Seat +/-
Conservative 14,806
35.7%
Increase 11.0pp
8 / 14(57%)
Increase 3
Liberal 12,142
29.3%
Increase 7.6pp
4 / 14(29%)
Increase 3
New Democratic 8,890
21.5%
Decrease 11.7pp
2 / 14(14%)
Decrease 6
Green 2,885
7.0%
Decrease 1.9pp
0 / 14(0%)
Steady 0
People's 2041
4.9%
Decrease 3.0pp
0 / 14(0%)
Steady 0
Independent 79
0.2%
Decrease 0.8pp
0 / 14(0%)
Steady 0
Total 41,430
100%
14 / 14(100%)
Steady 0

Source: Student Vote Canada[11]

See also

Notes

References

Related Articles

Wikiwand AI