2023 Asturian regional election

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1] Voting for the General Junta was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.^[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.^[3]

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established as follows:

• Central District, comprising the municipalities of Aller, Avilés, Bimenes, Carreño, Caso, Castrillón, Corvera de Asturias, Gijón, Gozón, Illas, Las Regueras, Langreo, Laviana, Lena, Llanera, Mieres, Morcín, Noreña, Oviedo, Proaza, Quirós, Ribera de Arriba, Riosa, San Martín del Rey Aurelio, Santo Adriano, Sariego, Siero, Sobrescobio and Soto del Barco).
• Eastern District, comprising the municipalities of Amieva, Cabrales, Cabranes, Cangas de Onís, Caravia, Colunga, Llanes, Nava, Onís, Parres, Peñamellera Alta, Peñamellera Baja, Piloña, Ponga, Ribadedeva, Ribadesella and Villaviciosa).
• Western District, comprising the municipalities of Allande, Belmonte de Miranda, Boal, Candamo, Cangas del Narcea, Castropol, Coaña, Cudillero, Degaña, El Franco, Grado, Grandas de Salime, Ibias, Illano, Muros de Nalón, Navia, Pesoz, Pravia, Salas, San Martín de Oscos, Santa Eulalia de Oscos, San Tirso de Abres, Somiedo, Tapia de Casariego, Taramundi, Teverga, Tineo, Valdés, Vegadeo, Villanueva de Oscos, Villayón and Yernes y Tameza).

Each constituency was allocated an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations.^[4]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each General Junta constituency was entitled the following seats:^[5]

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.^[6]

The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the General Junta on 28 May 2023.^[1][4][7]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.^[1]

The election to the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Gazette of the Principality of Asturias (BOPA).^[5]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the General Junta at the time of the election call.^[8]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[4][7]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Adrián Barbón	Social democracy	35.3%	20		[11]
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Diego Canga	Conservatism Christian democracy	17.5%	10		[12]
	CS	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)		Manuel Iñarra	Liberalism	14.0%	5		[13] [14] [15]
	Podemos Asturies	List We Can Asturias (Podemos Asturies)		Covadonga Tomé	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	11.0%	4		[16]
	IU–MP–IAS	List United Left of Asturias (IU/IX) – Communist Party of Asturias (PCA) – The Dawn Marxist Organization (La Aurora (OM)) – Republican Left (IR) More Country (Más País) Asturian Left (IAS)		Ovidio Zapico	Socialism Communism	6.6% [a]	2		[17] [18]
	Foro	List Asturias Forum (Foro)		Adrián Pumares	Regionalism Conservatism	6.5%	2		[19]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Carolina López	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	6.4%	2		[20] [21]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout									SOS	Lead
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—N/a	56.8	36.5 19	32.6 17	0.9 0	3.9 1	7.6 3	3.7 1	10.1 4	–	1.1 0	3.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 1]	22 May 2023	?	?	36.8 19/20	32.3 17/18	–	[d]	[d]	4.8 1	9.3 3	10.5 4	–	4.5
KeyData/Público[p 2]	17 May 2023	?	60.1	35.7 19	29.8 16	1.8 0	7.6 3	6.4 2	4.7 1	9.3 4	–	–	5.9
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 3][p 4]	11–17 May 2023	600	?	37.2 20	28.8 16	2.0 0	6.6 2	6.4 2	4.6 1	10.7 4	–	0.9 0	8.4
GESOP/La Nueva España[p 5][p 6]	2–17 May 2023	2,806	?	36.4 18/20	29.5 15/16	2.0 0	5.3 2	7.3 3	4.1 1	10.2 4/5	–	1.0 0	6.9
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 7][p 8]	4–10 May 2023	600	?	37.1 20	28.8 16	2.1 0	6.5 2	6.6 2	4.6 1	10.7 4	–	0.8 0	8.3
GAD3/Vocento[p 9][p 10]	28 Apr–3 May 2023	1,004	?	37.8 19/20	31.9 17	1.3 0	5.0 2	6.3 2	4.7 1	9.9 3/4	–	–	5.9
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 11][p 12]	26 Apr–3 May 2023	600	?	37.3 20	29.4 16	2.2 0	6.3 2	6.3 2	4.8 1	10.4 4	–	0.8 0	7.9
Sondaxe/La Voz de Asturias[p 13]	24 Apr–2 May 2023	800	?	34.5 19	28.8 16	2.6 0	9.3 4	6.6 2	4.6 1	8.1 3	–	–	5.7
CIS[p 14][p 15]	10–26 Apr 2023	494	?	36.7	27.3	3.7	8.0	6.8	4.5	9.1	–	–	9.4
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 16][p 17]	19–25 Apr 2023	600	?	37.3 20	28.5 15	2.1 0	6.3 2	6.6 2	5.1 2	10.8 4	–	0.9 0	8.8
GAD3/PP[p 18][p 19]	14–18 Apr 2023	1,014	?	36.3 18/19	33.9 17	1.3 0	7.0 2/3	5.2 2	2.3 0/1	10.8 4/5	–	–	2.4
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 20][p 21]	12–18 Apr 2023	600	?	37.7 20	27.9 15	2.1 0	7.0 2	6.1 2	5.2 2	11.0 4	–	0.9 0	9.8
Simple Lógica/elDiario.es[p 22]	4–13 Apr 2023	452	?	36.6 19/20	27.8 15/16	3.0 0	5.8 2/3	12.9 3/4	3.4 0/1	8.9 3/4	–	–	8.8
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 23][p 24]	5–11 Apr 2023	600	?	38.5 20	26.6 13	1.8 0	7.3 3	6.5 2	5.1 2	11.2 4	–	0.9 1	11.9
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 25][p 26]	27 Mar–4 Apr 2023	600	?	38.8 20	26.0 13	1.7 0	7.4 3	6.5 2	5.1 2	11.5 4	–	0.9 1	12.8
NC Report/La Razón[p 27]	3–10 Mar 2023	?	54.9	33.4 18	31.4 17	–	[d]	[d]	5.0 1	8.9 3	15.2 6	–	2.0
GAD3/IU[e][p 28]	1–7 Mar 2023	2,003	?	34.8 18/19	32.4 16	2.3 0	8.3 3	6.0 2	4.8 1/2	10.4 4	–	–	2.4
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 29]	15 Jan–26 Feb 2023	1,101	?	? 21	? 12	? 0	? 3	? 2	? 2	? 4	–	? 1	?
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 30][p 31]	9–15 Dec 2022	711	?	33.9 19	26.9 15	4.5 0/1	8.8 3/4	6.4 2	4.7 0/1	10.9 4	–	–	7.0
CIS[f][p 32]	17 Nov–2 Dec 2022	266	?	45.5	19.3	1.6	[d]	[d]	0.5	8.4	14.9	–	26.2
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 33]	1 Jun–13 Jul 2022	231	?	42.1 22	19.5 11	1.6 0	7.8 3	6.4 2	5.4 2	13.0 5	–	0.8 0	22.6
Metroscopia/PP[p 34]	23–29 Jun 2022	800	?	33.7 17	35.4 19	1.0 0	8.7 3	5.1 2	1.6 0	11.5 4	–	–	1.7
La Nueva España[p 35][p 36]	23 Mar–7 Apr 2022	?	?	? 20/21	? 10	? 0	? 4	? 2	? 2	? 4/5	–	–	?
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 37]	15 Oct–29 Nov 2021	1,093	?	41.4 23	20.6 11	2.1 0	8.4 3	6.4 2	6.5 2	11.1 4	–	–	20.8
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 38]	15 Apr 2021	800	?	42.4 22	21.5 11	4.0 1	7.7 3	5.2 2	5.4 2	10.0 4	–	–	20.9
SyM Consulting[p 39]	27–31 Dec 2020	1,276	60.6	35.8 18	16.9 8	9.1 4	13.9 6/7	6.9 3	6.4 2	8.2 3/4	–	–	18.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 40][p 41]	1 Apr–15 May 2020	?	?	43.3 23	19.6 10	7.2 2	5.8 2	7.2 3	5.0 1	10.0 4	–	–	23.7
SyM Consulting[p 42][p 43]	4–6 May 2020	1,194	62.2	43.9 23/24	19.8 10	6.4 2	6.3 2/3	6.6 2	4.2 1	11.1 4	–	–	24.1
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	—N/a	58.1	33.3	23.2	6.7	[d]	[d]	[g]	15.9	16.0	–	10.1
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—N/a	55.1	35.3 20	17.5 10	14.0 5	11.0 4	6.6 2	6.5 2	6.4 2	–	–	17.8

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size									?	N	Lead
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—N/a	23.2	20.7	0.6	2.5	4.8	2.3	6.4	–	—N/a	35.6	2.5
Sondaxe/La Voz de Asturias[p 13]	24 Apr–2 May 2023	800	19.0	15.9	–	4.3	2.9	–	3.9	–	–	–	3.1
CIS[p 14]	10–26 Apr 2023	494	28.9	19.7	1.7	4.5	5.6	2.8	6.2	–	25.6	1.7	9.2
CIS[p 32]	17 Nov–2 Dec 2022	266	25.9	12.7	0.6	[d]	[d]	0.4	6.5	9.5	34.6	4.4	13.2
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	—N/a	21.6	15.1	4.3	[d]	[d]	[g]	10.3	10.4	—N/a	34.5	6.5
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—N/a	21.8	10.8	8.6	6.8	4.1	4.0	4.0	–	—N/a	37.6	11.0