Next Canarian regional election

Under the 2018 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of the Canary Islands is the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.^[1] The electoral and procedural rules are supplemented by national law provisions.^[2]

The term of the Parliament of the Canary Islands expires four years after the date of its previous election, expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Canaries (BOC), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.^[3] The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which means that the chamber's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree shall be published in the BOC no later than 4 May 2027, setting the latest possible date for election day on 27 June 2027.

The regional president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of the Canary Islands at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year after a previous one.^[4] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the Parliament's reconvening, the chamber is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[5]

Voting for the Parliament is based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Canary Islands and with full political rights, provided that they have not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence.^[6]

The Parliament of the Canary Islands has a minimum of 50 and a maximum of 75 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 70. All are elected in eight multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the islands of El Hierro, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, La Gomera, La Palma, Lanzarote and Tenerife, as well as an additional constituency comprising the whole archipelago, each of which is assigned a fixed number of seats—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a 15 percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency or four percent regionally.^[7]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency is entitled the following seats:^[8]

The law does not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term will be filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.^[9]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.^[10][11]

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance are required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.^[13] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system.^[14]

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Sebastián Franquis	Social democracy	27.2%	23		[15]
	CCa	List Canarian Coalition (CCa)		Fernando Clavijo	Regionalism Canarian nationalism Centrism	22.1%	19
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Manuel Domínguez	Conservatism Christian democracy	19.3%	15
	NC–BC	List New Canaries–Canarian Bloc (NC–BC)		Román Rodríguez	Canarian nationalism Social democracy	7.9%	5
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Nicasio Galván	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	7.9%	4
	ASG	List Gomera Socialist Group (ASG)		Casimiro Curbelo	Insularism Social democracy	0.7%	3
	AHI	List Independent Herrenian Group (AHI) Canarian Coalition (CCa)[c] New Canaries–Canarian Bloc (NC–BC)[c] Frontera Union (UF)		Raúl Acosta	Insularism Canarian nationalism Centrism	0.2%	1

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 36 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Canary Islands.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout													SALF	MPC	Lead
Areópago Genuina 26/UNED[p 1][p 2]	20 Oct–10 Nov 2025	1,511	?	26.6 20/24	22.7 17/19	17.8 14/16	7.4 4/5	11.3 4/6	3.9 0	3.1 0	1.1 0	0.7 3	–	0.2 1	–	–	1.9 0	3.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 3]	16–31 May 2025	400	49.3	? 21	? 22	? 18	? 2	? 3	–	–	–	? 3	–	? 1	–	–	–	?
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 4]	12–27 May 2025	1,109	?	27.8 21/23	22.2 19/20	21.3 17/18	6.0 3/4	9.5 3/5	2.5 0	–	–	1.0 3	–	0.2 1	–	–	–	5.6
Ágora Integral/Canarias Ahora[p 5]	15–26 May 2025	2,100	52	28.2 23	23.8 21	22.5 17	4.6 1	8.2 4	3.3 0	2.4 0	–	? 3	–	? 1	–	–	2.5 0	4.4
EM-Analytics/GMG[p 6]	25 Apr–5 May 2025	1,204	?	27.4 24	24.0 21	20.1 16	5.1 2	7.0 3	2.7 0	2.1 0	1.3 0	0.7 3	–	0.2 1	2.5 0	2.0 0	–	3.4
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—N/a	37.2	30.5 (27)	10.3 (8)	29.3 (25)	[d]	12.0 (8)	3.4 (0)	–	–	–	0.4 (0)	–	4.0 (0)	6.3 (2)	–	1.2
EM-Analytics/GMG[p 7]	1–24 May 2024	1,207	?	25.7 22	23.9 21	22.0 16	8.5 5	7.3 2	1.0 0	2.7 0	1.5 0	0.7 3	0.4 0	0.2 1	1.5 0	–	–	1.8
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—N/a	58.2	33.3 (27)	11.4 (8)	30.4 (24)	4.5 (1)	7.6 (4)	[d]	[d]	–	–	–	–	10.5 (6)	–	–	2.9
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—N/a	52.0	27.2 23	22.1 19	19.3 15	7.9 5	7.9 4	3.9 0	3.2 0	1.9 0	0.7 3	0.4 0	0.2 1	–	–	–	5.1

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size										SALF	?	N	Lead
CIS[p 8]	7–31 Mar 2025	397	21.7	15.9	12.7	0.6	10.0	1.4	1.0	–	1.0	0.7	27.0	4.7	5.8
2024 EP election[e]	9 Jun 2024	—N/a	12.4	4.1	11.9	[d]	4.9	1.4	–	–	1.6	2.6	—N/a	59.3	0.5
2023 general election[e]	23 Jul 2023	—N/a	21.0	7.1	19.1	2.8	4.8	[d]	[d]	–	6.6	–	—N/a	36.4	1.9
2023 regional election[e]	28 May 2023	—N/a	15.2	12.3	10.9	4.5	4.4	2.2	1.8	0.4	–	–	—N/a	42.8	2.9

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Canary Islands.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Torres PSOE	Clavijo CCa	Dávila CCa	Domínguez PP	Galván Vox
CIS[f][p 8]	7–31 Mar 2025	397	13.6	13.4	0.7	3.8	6.0	6.5	56.1	0.2