2023 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

Registered1,591,262

1.2%

Turnout1,091,741 (69.6%)

0.2 pp

2023 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

← 2019

28 May 2023

2027 →

All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha
17 seats needed for a majority

Opinion polls

Registered

1,591,262

1.2%

Turnout

1,091,741 (69.6%)

0.2 pp

	First party	Second party	Third party

Leader	Emiliano García-Page	Francisco Núñez	David Moreno
Party	PSOE	PP	Vox
Leader since	26 February 2012	7 October 2018	26 December 2022
Leader's seat	Toledo	Toledo	Toledo
Last election	19 seats, 44.1%	10 seats, 28.5%	0 seats, 7.0%
Seats won	17	12	4
Seat change	2	2	4
Popular vote	490,288	361,155	137,765
Percentage	45.0%	33.7%	12.8%
Swing	0.9 pp	5.2 pp	5.8 pp

Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha

President before election

Emiliano García-Page
PSOE

Elected President

Emiliano García-Page
PSOE

A regional election was held in Castilla–La Mancha on 28 May 2023 to elect the 11th Cortes of the autonomous community. All 33 seats in the Cortes were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.^[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.^[3]

The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats and the remaining 18 being distributed in proportion to their populations.^[1]^[4]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:^[5]

Seats	Constituencies
9	Toledo
7	Albacete, Ciudad Real
5	Cuenca, Guadalajara

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.^[6]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Cortes on 28 May 2023.^[1]^[4]^[7]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.^[1]

The election to the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Journal of Castilla–La Mancha (DOCM), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 22 June.^[5]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.^[8]

Parliamentary composition in April 2023^[9]
Groups		Parties		Legislators
Groups		Parties		Seats	Total
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	19	19
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	10	10
	Citizens's Parliamentary Group		CS	4	4

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[4]^[7]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Vote %	Seats	Gov.	Ref.
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Emiliano García-Page	Social democracy	44.1%	19		^[10]
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Francisco Núñez	Conservatism Christian democracy	28.5%	10		^[11]
	CS	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)		Carmen Picazo	Liberalism	11.4%	4		^[12]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		David Moreno	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	7.0%	0		^[13]
	Unidas Podemos CLM	List We Can (Podemos) United Left of Castilla–La Mancha (IUCLM) – Communist Party of Castilla–La Mancha (PCE–CLM) – The Dawn Marxist Organization (La Aurora (OM)) – Republican Left (IR) Greens Equo (Verdes Equo) Green Alliance (AV)		José Luis García Gascón	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	6.9%	0		^[14] ^[15]

Campaign

Election debates

2023 Castilian-Manchegan regional election debates
Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P Present^[a]
			PSOE	PP	CS	Vox	UP	Audience	Ref.
								Audience	Ref.
22 May	CMM	Óscar García Sonia Trigueros	P Page	P Núñez	P Picazo	P Moreno	P Gascón	10.4% (67,000)	^[16] ^[17]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha.

Color key:

Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							Lead

2023 regional election	28 May 2023	N/a	69.6	45.0 17	33.7 12	1.0 0	12.8 4	4.2 0	0.3 0	11.3

GAD3/RTVE–FORTA^{[p 1]}	12–27 May 2023	4,000	?	44.2 16/18	34.0 12/13	1.5 0	11.4 3/4	6.8 0	–	10.2
PSOE^{[p 2]}	22 May 2023	?	?	47.0– 48.0 18/19	29.0– 30.0 10/12	–	10.0– 11.0 1/2	–	–	18.0
NC Report/La Razón^{[p 3]}	22 May 2023	?	?	40.4 16	37.3 14/15	–	10.9 2/3	–	–	3.1
KeyData/Público^{[p 4]}	18 May 2023	?	71.2	41.0 17	35.7 14	2.4 0	11.1 2	6.1 0	–	5.3
Sigma Dos/El Mundo^{[p 5]}	15–18 May 2023	1,200	?	42.3 15/17	34.8 13/14	1.2 0	13.5 3/4	6.6 0	–	7.5
EM-Analytics/El Plural^{[p 6]}^{[p 7]}	11–17 May 2023	600	?	40.2 16	37.2 15	2.6 0	10.7 2	6.5 0	1.6 0	3.0
Data10/Okdiario^{[p 8]}	15–16 May 2023	1,500	?	40.5 16	38.6 15	1.9 0	10.7 2	5.7 0	–	1.9
Target Point/El Debate^{[p 9]}	9–15 May 2023	800	?	42.2 16/18	36.4 13/15	1.2 0	10.8 2/3	6.3 0	–	5.8
SocioMétrica/El Español^{[p 10]}	8–14 May 2023	?	?	40.4 15/17	37.0 14/16	2.4 0	11.4 2/3	5.9 0	–	3.4
EM-Analytics/El Plural^{[p 11]}^{[p 12]}	4–10 May 2023	600	?	40.1 16	37.3 15	2.6 0	10.7 2	6.5 0	1.7 0	2.8
IMOP/El Confidencial^{[p 13]}	4–6 May 2023	1,295	66	46.5 18/19	31.6 12/13	2.3 0	12.1 2	4.8 0	–	14.9
EM-Analytics/El Plural^{[p 14]}^{[p 15]}	26 Apr–3 May 2023	600	?	39.7 16	37.0 15	2.6 0	10.8 2	6.5 0	1.7 0	2.7
CIS^{[p 16]}^{[p 17]}	10–26 Apr 2023	971	?	47.2 16/22	28.1 9/11	2.7 0	11.4 2/4	6.9 0/2	–	19.1
EM-Analytics/El Plural^{[p 18]}^{[p 19]}	19–25 Apr 2023	600	?	39.4 16	? 15	? 0	11.0 2	6.5 0	? 0	?
EM-Analytics/El Plural^{[p 20]}^{[p 21]}	12–18 Apr 2023	600	?	38.9 15	36.5 15	2.5 0	11.6 3	6.4 0	2.2 0	2.4
Sigma Dos/El Mundo^{[p 22]}	17 Apr 2023	?	?	40.6 15/16	36.6 13/15	2.8 0	10.8 3/4	6.9 0	–	4.0
Data10/Okdiario^{[p 23]}	10–13 Apr 2023	1,500	?	38.6 15	38.8 16	2.5 0	10.2 2	6.4 0	–	0.2
EM-Analytics/El Plural^{[p 24]}^{[p 25]}	5–11 Apr 2023	600	?	38.1 14	36.4 15	2.2 0	12.7 4	6.5 0	2.0 0	1.7
SocioMétrica/El Español^{[p 26]}	3–7 Apr 2023	1,200	?	38.8 15	37.2 14	2.8 0	11.8 4	6.4 0	–	1.6
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 27]}	3–5 Apr 2023	500	?	45.1 18/20	31.0 11/13	2.7 0	9.8 1/3	5.4 0	–	14.1
EM-Analytics/El Plural^{[p 28]}^{[p 29]}	27 Mar–4 Apr 2023	600	?	37.5 14	36.4 15	2.3 0	13.3 4	6.7 0	2.0 0	1.1
NC Report/La Razón^{[p 30]}	17–24 Mar 2023	?	?	39.3 15	37.6 14	–	11.0 4	–	–	1.7
KeyData/Público^{[p 31]}	15 Mar 2023	?	71.3	39.5 16	36.7 15	2.9 0	10.5 2	6.5 0	–	2.8
Data10/Okdiario^{[p 32]}	14–16 Feb 2023	1,500	?	40.8 16	38.3 16	2.7 0	9.1 1	6.5 0	–	2.5
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 33]}	9–27 Jan 2023	4,723	?	44.2 17/19	32.5 11/13	2.6 0	10.6 1/3	5.6 0	–	11.7
PP^{[p 34]}	21 Jan 2023	?	?	? 16	? 14	–	? 3	–	–	?
GAD3/PP^{[p 35]}	16 Jan 2023	?	?	? 18	? 14	–	? 1	–	–	?
CIS^[b]^{[p 36]}^{[p 37]}	17 Nov–2 Dec 2022	449	?	44.4 15/22	22.5 6/13	2.0 0	13.4 1/6	9.6 0/4	–	21.9
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 38]}	3–25 Nov 2022	4,350	?	46.0 18/19	30.8 12/13	3.7 0	11.9 1/3	5.9 0	–	15.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo^{[p 39]}^{[p 40]}	18–24 Nov 2022	1,100	?	39.9 16/17	34.2 14/15	3.5 0	10.4 3/4	6.4 0	–	5.7
PP^{[p 41]}	5 Oct 2022	?	66.9	39.2 15/16	38.9 15/16	1.5 0	10.8 2	4.7 0	–	0.3
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 42]}	16–20 May 2022	800	?	44.9 18/19	31.9 11/12	3.2 0	9.5 3/4	5.0 0	–	13.0
NC Report/PP^{[p 43]}^{[p 44]}	2–18 May 2022	2,400	66.3	39.5 16	37.0 14	3.2 0	11.1 3	6.2 0	–	2.5
EM-Analytics/Electomanía^{[p 45]}	28 Feb–13 Apr 2022	324	?	38.6 15	35.3 14	2.9 0	13.1 4	6.8 0	1.7 0	3.3
EM-Analytics/Electomanía^{[p 46]}	1 Dec–14 Jan 2022	191	?	39.7 15	35.7 14	2.8 0	12.5 4	6.6 0	1.2 0	4.0
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 47]}	3–17 Dec 2021	4,723	?	45.5 18/19	30.9 11/13	3.6 0	12.5 2/4	5.5 0	–	14.6
GAD3/PSOE^{[p 48]}^{[p 49]}	20 Nov–3 Dec 2021	1,202	?	42.9 17/19	30.7 11/12	4.3 0	13.0 3/4	6.9 0	–	12.2
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 50]}	4–15 Oct 2021	2,500	?	42.5 18/20	30.2 12/13	5.1 0	13.2 1/2	5.9 0	–	12.3
NC Report/La Tribuna^{[p 51]}	14 Oct 2021	1,450	64.6	38.9 15	38.1 15	3.4 0	11.9 3	5.3 0	–	0.8
EM-Analytics/Electomanía^{[p 52]}	13 Jul–21 Aug 2021	223	?	39.8 16	36.7 15	–	11.0 2	6.2 0	–	3.1
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 53]}	24–28 May 2021	1,200	?	? 17/18	? 12/13	? 0	? 2/4	? 0	–	?
NC Report/La Razón^{[p 54]}^{[p 55]}	19–25 May 2021	1,450	?	38.6 15	38.3 15	3.4 0	12.0 3	5.1 0	–	0.3
PSOE^{[p 56]}	19 Dec 2020	?	?	42.0 18	33.0 12/13	7.1 0/1	10.0 3/4	5.0 0	–	9.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía^{[p 57]}	15 Jul 2020	850	?	38.6 16	33.5 14	7.7 0	10.2 2	8.1 1	–	5.1
PSOE^{[p 58]}^{[p 59]}	29 Jun–10 Jul 2020	2,500	?	42.3 18	31.5 11/12	7.6 1/2	? 1/2	6.4 0	–	10.8
SyM Consulting^{[p 60]}^{[p 61]}	20–22 May 2020	3,209	68.3	37.5 13/16	29.6 9/13	5.9 0	16.5 6	8.4 1/3	–	7.9
NC Report/La Razón^{[p 62]}	17–21 May 2020	1,858	?	40.3 16	33.7 14	6.5 0	11.2 3	6.4 0	–	6.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía^{[p 63]}^{[p 64]}	1 Apr–15 May 2020	?	?	40.4 18	36.2 14	5.8 0	7.9 1	8.0 0	–	4.2
Numeral 8/La Tribuna^{[p 65]}	20–24 Jan 2020	1,050	?	43.4 18	29.9 11	9.1 3	8.6 1	7.6 0	–	13.5
PSOE^{[p 66]}^{[p 67]}	3 Dec 2019	?	?	? 18/20	? 8/9	? 2/3	? 3/4	? 0	–	?
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	N/a	70.6	33.1 (13)	26.9 (10)	6.8 (0)	21.9 (9)	9.2 (1)	–	6.2

2019 regional election	26 May 2019	N/a	69.4	44.1 19	28.5 10	11.4 4	7.0 0	6.9 0	–	15.6

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						?	N	Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						?	N	Lead

2023 regional election	28 May 2023	N/a	31.5	23.5	0.7	9.0	2.9	N/a	28.9	8.0

CIS^{[p 16]}	10–26 Apr 2023	971	38.4	18.2	1.2	8.9	4.8	21.7	2.9	20.2
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 27]}	3–5 Apr 2023	500	30.5	16.1	0.7	7.0	3.0	32.2	6.9	14.4
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 33]}	9–27 Jan 2023	4,723	30.0	17.0	0.6	7.4	2.7	32.2	6.9	13.0
CIS^{[p 36]}	17 Nov–2 Dec 2022	449	29.9	13.9	0.7	9.1	6.3	28.9	5.4	16.0
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 68]}	3–25 Nov 2022	4,350	28.8	15.4	0.8	6.4	2.8	35.2	7.5	13.4
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 69]}	16–20 May 2022	800	32.0	17.9	0.9	7.9	2.8	28.2	7.3	14.1
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 47]}	3–17 Dec 2021	4,723	31.5	18.3	1.1	9.4	3.5	24.1	9.1	13.2
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	N/a	23.3	18.9	4.8	15.4	6.5	N/a	28.6	4.4

2019 regional election	26 May 2019	N/a	30.9	20.0	8.0	4.9	4.8	N/a	29.2	10.9

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None	?	Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None	?	Lead
GAD3/PSOE^{[p 48]}	20 Nov–3 Dec 2021	1,202	56.5	17.9	0.5	3.7	0.7	28.1		38.6

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Communities of Castilla–La Mancha.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead

			Page PSOE	Núñez PP	Picazo CS	Cañizares Vox	Gascón UP
IMOP/El Confidencial^{[p 13]}	4–6 May 2023	1,295	42.0	13.0	–	–	–	–	–	29.0
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 70]}	9–27 Jan 2023	4,723	46.2	13.9	–	–	–	26.8	13.1	32.3
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 71]}	16–20 May 2022	800	47.5	12.4	–	–	–	22.9	17.2	35.1
Idus3/PSOE^{[p 47]}^{[p 72]}	3–17 Dec 2021	4,723	58.0	18.0	–	–	–	24.0		40.0
GAD3/PSOE^{[p 48]}	20 Nov–3 Dec 2021	1,202	38.0	11.2	1.8	5.4	2.4	41.2		26.8

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 28 May 2023 Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results
Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats

Parties and alliances		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	490,288	45.04	+0.94	17	−2
	People's Party (PP)	366,312	33.65	+5.12	12	+2
	Vox (Vox)	139,607	12.83	+5.81	4	+4
	United We Can Castilla–La Mancha (Unidas Podemos CLM)	45,317	4.16	−2.76	0	±0
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)	10,885	1.00	−10.38	0	−4
	Animalist Party with the Environment (PACMA)¹	10,727	0.99	+0.19	0	±0
	Empty Spain (España Vaciada)	3,654	0.33	New	0	±0
	+CUENCA Now–Empty Spain (+CU–EV)	1,984	0.18	New	0	±0
	Empty Spain (España Vaciada)	1,670	0.15	New	0	±0
	Country with Managers (País con Gestores)	2,151	0.20	New	0	±0
	Castilian Party–Commoners' Land–Zero Cuts (PCAS–TC–RC)	1,345	0.12	−0.01	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	989	0.09	−0.03	0	±0
	Here Now (Aquí Ahora)	724	0.07	New	0	±0
	Your Fatherland (TÚpatria)	585	0.05	New	0	±0
	Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)	299	0.03	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		15,570	1.43	+0.62

Total		1,088,453			33	±0

Valid votes		1,088,453	98.28	−0.67
Invalid votes		19,054	1.72	+0.67
Votes cast / turnout		1,107,507	69.60	+0.15
Abstentions		483,755	30.40	−0.15
Registered voters		1,591,262

Sources^[18]
Footnotes: ¹ Animalist Party with the Environment results are compared to Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals totals in the 2019 election.

Popular vote

PSOE			45.04%
PP			33.65%
Vox			12.83%
U. Pod. CLM			4.16%
Others			2.88%
Blank ballots			1.43%

Seats

PSOE			51.52%
PP			36.36%
Vox			12.12%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE		PP		Vox

	%	S	%	S	%	S
Albacete	42.6	3	35.5	3	12.4	1
Ciudad Real	46.6	4	34.5	2	12.0	1
Cuenca	47.4	3	33.6	2	10.5	−
Guadalajara	42.2	2	30.3	2	16.1	1
Toledo	45.6	5	33.2	3	13.3	1
Total	45.0	17	33.7	12	12.8	4

Sources^[18]

Ballot →		6 July 2023
Investiture Emiliano García-Page (PSOE)
Required majority →		17 out of 33 Y
	Yes • PSOE (17)	17 / 33
	No • PP (12) • Vox (4)	16 / 33
	Abstentions	0 / 33
	Absentees	0 / 33
Sources^[19]

v t e Elections in Castilla–La Mancha
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v t e (← 2010s) Regional elections in Spain in the 2020s (→ 2030s)
2020	July: Basque Country Galicia
2021	February: Catalonia May: Madrid
2022	February: Castile and León June: Andalusia
2023	May: Aragon Asturias Balearic Islands Canary Islands Cantabria Castilla–La Mancha Ceuta Extremadura La Rioja Madrid Melilla Murcia Navarre Valencian Community
2024	February: Galicia April: Basque Country May: Catalonia
2025	December: Extremadura
2026	February: Aragon March: Castile and León May: Andalusia
2027	May: Asturias Cantabria Castilla–La Mancha Ceuta La Rioja Madrid Melilla Murcia Navarre
By 2027	June or earlier: Balearic Islands Canary Islands Valencian Community
By 2028	March or earlier: Galicia May or earlier: Basque Country June or earlier: Catalonia

2023 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

Electoral system

Election date

Parliamentary composition

Parties and candidates

Campaign

Election debates

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates

Voting preferences

Victory likelihood

Preferred President

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Notes

References

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