2023 Extremaduran regional election

Under the 2011 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Extremadura was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.^[7] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.^[8]

The term of the Assembly of Extremadura expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.^[9] The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 26 May 2023. The election decree was required to be published in the DOE no later than 2 May 2023, setting the latest possible date for election day on 25 June 2023.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one.^[10] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[11]

The election to the Assembly of Extremadura was officially called on 4 April 2023 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the DOE, setting election day for 28 May.^[12]

Voting for the Assembly was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence.^[13] Amendments in 2022 abolished the "begged" voting system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting.^[14] The begged vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it was in force.^[15]

The Assembly of Extremadura had a maximum of 65 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at that number. All were elected in two multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 distributed in proportion to population—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency. Alternatively, parties could also enter the seat distribution as long as they ran candidates in both constituencies and reached five percent regionally.^[16]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Assembly constituency was entitled the following seats:^[17]

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.^[18]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.^[19][20]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least two percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.^[21] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.^[22]

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Guillermo Fernández Vara	Social democracy	46.8%	34		[23] [24]
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		María Guardiola	Conservatism Christian democracy	27.5%	20		[25] [26]
	CS	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)		Fernando Baselga	Liberalism	11.1%	7		[27] [28]
	Podemos– IU–AV	List We Can (Podemos) United Left (IU) – Communist Party of Extremadura (PCEx) – The Dawn Marxist Organization (La Aurora (OM)) – Republican Left (IR) Green Alliance (AV)		Irene de Miguel	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	7.2%	4		[29]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Ángel Pelayo Gordillo	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	4.7%	0		[30]

The only campaign debate was held on May 17 and had the participation of candidates from ten parties, an unusually high number. The PSOE candidate, and current president, Guillermo Fernández Vara, would have refused to participate in a debate that had not include all parties. The People's Party accused him of wanting to "hide" in such a large crowd. The chosen date was also criticized for coinciding with the semifinal of the UEFA Champions League, in which Real Madrid participated, which could reduce the audience for the debate.^[31][32]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout								L	Lead
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—N/a	70.4	39.9 28	38.8 28	0.9 0	6.0 4	8.1 5	–	2.5 0	0.8 0	1.1
NC Report/La Razón[p 1]	22 May 2023	?	?	43.2 30/31	35.7 26/27	–	6.1 4	7.1 4	–	4.4 0/1	–	7.5
KeyData/Público[p 2]	17 May 2023	?	71.2	41.8 30	36.3 26	1.6 0	6.7 4	8.5 5	–	–	–	5.5
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 3][p 4]	11–17 May 2023	600	?	43.3 31	35.7 25	1.8 0	6.8 4	9.4 5	–	2.2 0	–	7.6
Data10/Okdiario[p 5]	12–15 May 2023	1,500	?	42.2 29	37.8 27	1.7 0	6.3 4	8.8 5	–	–	–	4.4
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 6]	8–14 May 2023	?	?	41.8 29/30	37.2 26/27	2.3 0	6.4 3/4	8.8 5/6	–	–	–	4.6
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 7][p 8]	4–10 May 2023	600	?	43.0 31	35.9 25	1.8 0	6.8 4	9.4 5	–	2.2 0	–	7.1
GAD3/ABC[p 9][35]	28 Apr–3 May 2023	1,004	?	40.3 29/30	37.4 27/28	1.6 0	6.8 3/4	8.6 4/5	–	–	–	2.9
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 10][p 11]	26 Apr–3 May 2023	600	?	42.8 31	36.0 25	1.8 0	6.9 4	9.4 5	–	2.2 0	–	6.8
Ágora Integral/El Periódico[p 12]	27 Apr–2 May 2023	1,200	?	42.8 29/31	36.5 25/27	0.5 0	6.2 4	7.3 5	–	4.8 0/1	–	6.3
CIS[p 13][p 14]	10–26 Apr 2023	743	?	40.6 28/29	35.9 24/26	1.5 0	10.3 4/8	8.6 5/6	–	–	–	4.7
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 15][p 16]	19–25 Apr 2023	600	?	42.8 30	35.7 25	1.9 0	6.7 4	9.4 6	–	2.4 0	–	7.1
Simple Lógica/elDiario.es[p 17]	12–19 Apr 2023	600	?	39.4 28/29	34.2 24/25	2.5 0	7.4 5/6	9.0 6/7	–	3.3 0	2.2 0/1	5.2
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 18][p 19]	12–18 Apr 2023	600	?	42.9 30	35.3 25	2.1 0	6.4 4	9.8 6	–	2.4 0	–	7.6
Data10/Okdiario[p 20]	11–14 Apr 2023	1,500	?	42.8 30	37.5 26	2.1 0	5.9 4	8.1 5	–	–	–	5.3
IMOP/El Confidencial[p 21]	10–13 Apr 2023	822	70	42.4 30	33.6 24	2.5 0	6.8 4	10.5 7	–	–	–	8.8
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 22][p 23]	5–11 Apr 2023	600	?	43.8 31	33.8 23	1.9 0	5.9 4	10.9 7	–	2.6 0	–	10.0
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 24]	27 Mar–11 Apr 2023	1,500	?	? 31	? 26	? 0	? 4	? 4	–	–	–	?
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 25]	3–7 Apr 2023	1,200	?	41.2 29/30	37.7 26/27	2.0 0	6.6 3	8.9 6	–	–	–	3.5
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 26][p 27]	27 Mar–4 Apr 2023	600	?	43.7 31	33.8 23	1.8 0	5.8 4	10.7 7	–	2.9 0	–	9.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 28]	10–17 Mar 2023	?	71.0	43.5 30	37.3 27	–	6.6 4	6.9 4	–	–	–	6.2
KeyData/Público[p 29]	15 Mar 2023	?	73.0	42.2 30	35.9 26	2.8 0	6.5 4	7.2 5	–	–	–	6.3
Data10/Okdiario[p 30]	13–15 Feb 2023	1,500	?	42.4 29	37.7 27	2.2 0	6.1 4	7.8 5	–	–	–	4.7
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 31]	30 Nov–5 Dec 2022	900	?	41.2 29/30	35.4 26/27	4.5 0/1	7.6 4/5	6.9 4	–	–	–	5.8
CIS[c][p 32][p 33]	17 Nov–2 Dec 2022	242	?	36.9 24/32	41.4 26/35	1.0 0/2	7.3 0/6	4.4 0/5	–	–	–	4.5
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 34]	1 Oct–13 Nov 2022	303	?	43.3 30	31.5 23	1.5 0	5.4 3	13.5 9	–	3.6 0	–	11.8
GAD3/PP[p 35][p 36]	26–31 Oct 2022	802	?	41.9 29/30	37.5 27/28	2.5 0	5.5 3/4	6.7 4/5	–	–	–	4.4
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 37]	21 Sep–10 Oct 2022	1,800	72.6	45.2 31/33	33.5 23/25	4.3 0	6.6 4	7.8 5	0.9 0	–	–	11.7
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 38]	30 Mar 2021	400	?	45.4 32	31.9 23	3.5 0	5.5 3	11.4 7	–	–	–	13.5
SyM Consulting[p 39]	12–14 Mar 2021	1,437	71.3	51.4 37/38	28.4 20/21	2.7 0	4.9 1	9.2 5/7	–	–	–	23.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 40][p 41]	1 Apr–15 May 2020	?	?	46.8 33	31.6 22	6.1 3	7.3 4	5.4 3	–	–	–	15.2
SyM Consulting[p 42][p 43]	7–9 May 2020	1,496	71.8	44.9 32	28.2 17/18	7.8 4/5	7.0 5/6	9.5 5/6	–	–	–	16.7
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	—N/a	67.2	38.3 27	26.0 17	7.6 5	9.1 5	16.8 11	–	–	–	12.3
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—N/a	69.3	46.8 34	27.5 20	11.1 7	7.2 4	4.7 0	–	–	–	19.3

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						?	N	Lead
2023 regional election[d]	28 May 2023	—N/a	28.2	27.5	0.6	4.2	5.7	—N/a	27.5	0.7
CIS[p 13]	10–26 Apr 2023	743	29.1	24.7	0.7	6.7	5.8	27.0	3.0	4.4
CIS[p 32]	17 Nov–2 Dec 2022	242	20.9	26.7	0.4	4.4	2.6	29.4	6.9	5.8
November 2019 general election[d]	10 Nov 2019	—N/a	26.0	17.7	5.1	6.2	11.4	—N/a	30.9	8.3
2019 regional election[d]	26 May 2019	—N/a	32.9	19.4	7.8	5.1	3.3	—N/a	28.7	13.5

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president of the Regional Government of Extremadura.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Vara PSOE	Guardiola PP	Baselga CS	De Miguel UxE	Gordillo Vox
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 25]	3–7 Apr 2023	1,200	54.6	26.5	6.2	7.1	5.6	–	–	28.1