2023 Ceuta Assembly election

The Assembly of Ceuta was the top-tier administrative and governing body of the autonomous city of Ceuta.^[1] Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered and residing in the municipality of Ceuta and in full enjoyment of their political rights, as well as resident non-national European citizens and those whose country of origin allowed Spanish nationals to vote in their own elections by virtue of a treaty.^[2]

The 25 members of the Assembly of Ceuta were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied.^[1][2]

The Mayor-President was indirectly elected by the plenary assembly. A legal clause required that mayoral candidates earned the vote of an absolute majority of councillors, or else the candidate of the most-voted party in the assembly was to be automatically appointed to the post. In the event of a tie, the appointee would be determined by lot.^[1]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[1][2]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 13 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Ceuta.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				MDyC				CY!	CA	Lead
2023 Assembly election	28 May 2023	—	54.8	34.3 9	21.0 6	20.6 5	11.2 3	[b]	0.7 0	0.6 0	10.0 2	–	13.3
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 1][p 2]	11–17 May 2023	250	?	34.1 9	25.0 7	21.3 5	10.3 2	[b]	0.8 0	–	7.4 2	–	9.1
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 3][p 4]	4–10 May 2023	250	?	33.4 9	25.3 7	21.6 5	10.4 2	[b]	0.8 0	–	7.4 2	–	8.1
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 5][p 6]	26 Apr–3 May 2023	250	?	33.5 9	25.5 7	21.2 5	10.5 2	[b]	0.8 0	–	7.5 2	–	8.0
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 7][p 8]	19–25 Apr 2023	250	?	33.5 9	25.8 7	20.8 5	10.2 2	[b]	0.6 0	–	7.8 2	–	7.7
GAD3/RTVCE[p 9]	20–24 Apr 2023	803	?	39.3 11	19.5 5	21.3 5/6	10.8 2/3	[b]	0.3 0	1.1 0	6.0 1	–	18.0
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 10][p 11]	12–18 Apr 2023	250	?	29.7 8	25.6 7	20.2 6	9.7 2	[b]	0.6 0	–	8.3 2	4.9 0	4.1
SyM Consulting[p 12][p 13]	7–11 Apr 2023	818	49.6	24.9 6/7	21.9 6	31.8 8	10.7 2/3	[b]	–	–	7.3 2	–	6.9
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 14][p 15]	5–11 Apr 2023	250	?	30.4 9	25.1 7	19.9 5	9.8 2	[b]	0.6 0	–	8.3 2	4.9 0	5.3
Dialoga Consultores/CeutaTV[p 16]	9 Apr 2023	600	?	35.0 9/11	31.2 8/10	18.9 4/6	5.5 1/2	[b]	0.3 0	0.3 0	3.5 0	4.2 0/1	3.8
EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 17][p 18]	27 Mar–4 Apr 2023	250	?	31.0 9	24.7 7	19.5 5	9.8 2	[b]	0.6 0	–	8.4 2	4.8 0	6.3
GAD3/El Pueblo de Ceuta[p 19]	23 Jan–10 Feb 2023	1,004	?	38.4 11	21.9 6	19.1 5	9.6 2	[b]	0.4 0	–	5.0 1	3.1 0	16.5
SyM Consulting[p 20][p 21]	5–9 Dec 2022	1,279	52.8	25.4 6/7	20.2 5	32.8 9	7.4 1/2	[b]	–	–	9.3 3	1.9 0	7.4
GAD3/El Pueblo de Ceuta[p 22]	2–14 Sep 2022	684	?	36.3 10	20.2 5	18.4 5	7.1 2	[b]	0.4 0	–	6.0 1	9.9 2	16.1
SyM Consulting[p 23][p 24]	6–10 Jul 2022	1,116	53.8	25.4 7	20.8 5/6	31.9 8/9	9.2 2	[b]	–	–	7.2 2	2.2 0	6.5
NC Report/El Faro de Ceuta[p 25]	3 Feb 2022	?	57.9	33.8 9	27.4 8	23.4 6	5.1 1	[b]	1.4 0	1.4 0	5.7 1	–	6.4
SyM Consulting[p 26][p 27]	16–19 Dec 2021	740	56.0	23.8 6	22.1 6	32.9 8/9	11.6 3	[b]	–	–	5.8 1/2	–	9.1
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 28]	30 Sep 2021	?	?	28.6 8	23.6 6	25.7 7	10.3 2	9.0 2	1.5 0	–	–	–	2.9
SyM Consulting[p 29][p 30]	20–23 May 2021	732	53.2	26.6 7	23.3 6	28.2 7/8	10.1 2/3	7.8 2	–	–	–	–	1.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 31]	15 Feb 2021	400	?	31.7 9	21.1 6	22.4 6	10.2 2	10.4 2	1.9 0	–	–	–	9.3
SyM Consulting[p 32][p 33]	9–12 Dec 2020	652	49.8	25.0 7	20.1 5/6	28.3 7/8	8.9 2	12.7 3	–	–	–	–	3.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 34]	16 Aug–26 Sep 2020	?	?	38.9 10	22.1 6	15.6 4	10.9 3	8.9 2	2.3 0	–	–	–	16.8
SyM Consulting[p 35][p 36]	12–13 Sep 2020	687	50.8	29.8 8	20.5 5/6	23.4 6/7	11.4 3	9.7 2	–	–	–	–	6.4
SyM Consulting[p 37][p 38]	22–23 Jun 2020	564	59.3	35.4 9/10	26.1 7	14.5 4	8.3 2/3	9.2 2	1.8 0	–	–	–	9.3
SyM Consulting[p 39][p 40]	25–26 May 2020	541	65.9	39.3 10/11	18.2 5	8.4 2	16.8 4/5	12.0 3	1.4 0	–	–	–	21.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 41][p 42]	1 Apr–15 May 2020	?	?	40.0 11	24.2 7	16.4 4	7.6 2	6.4 1	2.4 0	–	–	–	15.8
SyM Consulting[p 43][p 44]	1–2 Feb 2020	534	61.7	39.1 10/11	24.9 7	7.9 2	12.5 3	10.1 2/3	1.6 0	–	–	–	14.2
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	—	54.0	22.3 (6)	31.3 (9)	35.2 (10)	2.5 (0)	–	3.4 (0)	3.9 (0)	–	–	3.9
2019 Assembly election	26 May 2019	—	54.5	31.1 9	25.6 7	22.4 6	7.0 2	6.2 1	4.5 0	1.5 0	–	–	5.5