2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2024). Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.
Latest published ratings for competitive seats
Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirds supermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).
Most election ratings use:
- Tossup: no advantage
- Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
- Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
- Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
- Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain
The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.
| District | CPVI [1] |
Incumbent | Last result[2] | Cook Apr. 22, 2026[3] |
IE Apr. 21, 2026[4] |
Sabato Apr. 21, 2026[5] |
WH Apr. 24, 2026[6] |
Econ. Apr. 24, 2026[7][a] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska at-large | R+6 | Nick Begich III | 51.3% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R |
| Arizona 1 | R+1 | David Schweikert (retiring) |
51.9% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Likely D (flip) |
| Arizona 2 | R+7 | Eli Crane | 54.5% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Arizona 5 | R+10 | Andy Biggs (retiring) |
60.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Arizona 6 | EVEN | Juan Ciscomani | 50.0% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) |
| Arizona 8 | R+8 | Abraham Hamadeh | 56.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
| California 1 | D+7[b] | Vacant[c] | 65.3% R | Solid D (flip) | Solid D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Safe D (flip) |
| California 6 | D+5[b] | Kevin Kiley | 55.5% R[d] | Solid D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Safe D (flip) |
| California 13 | D+2[b] | Adam Gray | 50.0% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D |
| California 21 | D+5[b] | Jim Costa | 52.6% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D |
| California 22 | D+1[b] | David Valadao | 53.4% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) |
| California 40 | R+6[b] | Young Kim and Ken Calvert |
55.3% R; 51.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| California 45 | D+3[b] | Derek Tran | 50.1% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D |
| California 48 | D+2[b] | Darrell Issa (retiring) |
59.3% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Likely D (flip) |
| Colorado 3 | R+5 | Jeff Hurd | 50.8% R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R |
| Colorado 4 | R+9 | Lauren Boebert | 53.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Colorado 5 | R+5 | Jeff Crank | 54.7% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Tilt R | Likely R |
| Colorado 8 | EVEN | Gabe Evans | 49.0% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup |
| Connecticut 5 | D+3 | Jahana Hayes | 53.4% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Florida 2 | R+8 | Neal Dunn (retiring) |
61.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Florida 4 | R+5 | Aaron Bean | 57.3% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Florida 7 | R+5 | Cory Mills | 56.5% R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Florida 9 | D+4 | Darren Soto | 55.1% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Florida 13 | R+5 | Anna Paulina Luna | 54.8% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R |
| Florida 15 | R+5 | Laurel Lee | 56.2% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Florida 16 | R+7 | Vern Buchanan (retiring) |
59.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Lean R |
| Florida 23 | D+2 | Jared Moskowitz | 52.4% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Florida 27 | R+6 | María Elvira Salazar | 60.4% R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Georgia 1 | R+8 | Buddy Carter (retiring) |
62.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Georgia 10 | R+11 | Mike Collins (retiring) |
63.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Georgia 14 | R+19 | Clay Fuller | 55.9% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Indiana 1 | D+1 | Frank J. Mrvan | 53.4% D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Iowa 1 | R+4 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 50.1% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Iowa 2 | R+4 | Ashley Hinson (retiring) |
57.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Tilt R | Tossup |
| Iowa 3 | R+2 | Zach Nunn | 51.9% R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Kansas 3 | D+2 | Sharice Davids | 53.4% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Kentucky 6 | R+7 | Andy Barr (retiring) |
63.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Maine 2 | R+4 | Jared Golden (retiring) |
50.3% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean D |
| Michigan 3 | D+4 | Hillary Scholten | 53.7% D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Michigan 4 | R+3 | Bill Huizenga | 55.1% R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Tilt R | Lean R |
| Michigan 7 | EVEN | Tom Barrett | 50.3% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Michigan 8 | R+1 | Kristen McDonald Rivet | 51.2% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Michigan 10 | R+3 | John James (retiring) |
51.1% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Likely D (flip) |
| Minnesota 1 | R+6 | Brad Finstad | 58.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Minnesota 2 | D+3 | Angie Craig (retiring) |
55.6% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Minnesota 8 | R+7 | Pete Stauber | 58.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Missouri 2 | TBD[b] | Ann Wagner | 54.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Missouri 5 | TBD[b] | Emanuel Cleaver | 60.2% D | Solid D [e] | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) |
| Montana 1 | R+5 | Ryan Zinke (retiring) |
52.3% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Tossup | Lean D (flip) |
| Nebraska 1 | R+6 | Mike Flood | 60.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Nebraska 2 | D+3 | Don Bacon (retiring) |
50.9% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Safe D (flip) |
| Nevada 1 | D+2 | Dina Titus | 52.0% D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D |
| Nevada 2 | R+7 | Mark Amodei (retiring) |
55.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Nevada 3 | D+1 | Susie Lee | 51.4% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Nevada 4 | D+2 | Steven Horsford | 52.7% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D |
| New Hampshire 1 | D+2 | Chris Pappas (retiring) |
54.0% D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D |
| New Hampshire 2 | D+2 | Maggie Goodlander | 53.0% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D |
| New Jersey 2 | R+5 | Jeff Van Drew | 58.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| New Jersey 7 | EVEN | Thomas Kean Jr. | 51.8% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) |
| New Jersey 9 | D+2 | Nellie Pou | 50.8% D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D |
| New Mexico 2 | EVEN | Gabe Vasquez | 52.1% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D |
| New York 1 | R+4 | Nick LaLota | 55.2% R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R |
| New York 2 | R+6 | Andrew Garbarino | 59.8% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| New York 3 | EVEN | Tom Suozzi | 51.8% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Safe D |
| New York 4 | D+2 | Laura Gillen | 51.1% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D |
| New York 17 | D+1 | Mike Lawler | 52.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Lean D (flip) |
| New York 19 | D+1 | Josh Riley | 51.1% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D |
| New York 21 | R+10 | Elise Stefanik (retiring) |
62.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R | Likely R |
| North Carolina 1 | R+5[b] | Don Davis | 49.5% D | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup |
| North Carolina 3 | R+6[b] | Greg Murphy | 77.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| North Carolina 7 | R+7[b] | David Rouzer | 58.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
| North Carolina 9 | R+8[b] | Richard Hudson | 56.3% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R |
| North Carolina 11 | R+5[b] | Chuck Edwards | 56.8% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Tilt R | Likely R |
| North Carolina 13 | R+8[b] | Brad Knott | 58.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Ohio 1 | R+1[b] | Greg Landsman | 54.6% D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Ohio 7 | R+5[b] | Max Miller | 51.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Ohio 8 | R+12[b] | Warren Davidson | 62.8% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Ohio 9 | R+5[b] | Marcy Kaptur | 48.3% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tilt D | Tossup |
| Ohio 10 | R+4[b] | Mike Turner | 57.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Lean R |
| Ohio 13 | D+2[b] | Emilia Sykes | 51.1% D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Ohio 15 | R+5[b] | Mike Carey | 56.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R | Lean R |
| Oklahoma 1 | R+11 | Kevin Hern (retiring) |
60.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Oregon 5 | D+4 | Janelle Bynum | 47.7% D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Pennsylvania 1 | D+1 | Brian Fitzpatrick | 56.4% R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania 7 | R+1 | Ryan Mackenzie | 50.5% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania 8 | R+4 | Rob Bresnahan | 50.8% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania 10 | R+3 | Scott Perry | 50.6% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) |
| Pennsylvania 17 | D+3 | Chris Deluzio | 53.9% D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| South Carolina 1 | R+6 | Nancy Mace (retiring) |
58.3% R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R |
| South Carolina 5 | R+11 | Ralph Norman (retiring) |
63.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Tennessee 5 | R+8 | Andy Ogles | 56.8% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Texas 2 | R+11[b] | Dan Crenshaw (lost renomination) |
65.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Texas 9 | R+9[b] | New seat | – | Solid R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) |
| Texas 10 | R+10[b] | Michael McCaul (retiring) |
63.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Texas 15 | R+7[b] | Monica De La Cruz | 57.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Texas 21 | R+11[b] | Chip Roy (retiring) |
61.9% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Texas 22 | R+11[b] | Troy Nehls (retiring) |
62.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Texas 23 | R+7[b] | Vacant[f] | 62.3% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Tossup | Lean R |
| Texas 24 | R+7[b] | Beth Van Duyne | 60.3% D | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Texas 28 | R+3[b] | Henry Cuellar | 52.8% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D |
| Texas 32 | R+8[b] | New seat | – | Solid R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) |
| Texas 34 | R+3[b] | Vicente Gonzalez | 51.3% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D |
| Texas 35 | R+4[b] | New seat | – | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup |
| Virginia 1 | D+5[b] | Rob Wittman and Eugene Vindman |
56.4% R; 51.3% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Virginia 2 | D+3[b] | Jen Kiggans | 50.8% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) |
| Virginia 5 | D+4[b] | John McGuire | 57.5% R | Solid D (flip) | Solid D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Safe D (flip) |
| Virginia 6 | D+2[b] | Ben Cline | 63.1% R | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) |
| Virginia 7 | D+5[b] | New seat | – | Solid D (flip) | Solid D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Safe D (flip) |
| Washington 3 | R+2 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 51.7% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tilt D | Safe D |
| Washington 4 | R+10 | Dan Newhouse (retiring) |
52.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Wisconsin 1 | R+2 | Bryan Steil | 54.1% R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Lean R | Tossup |
| Wisconsin 3 | R+3 | Derrick Van Orden | 51.4% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Wisconsin 7 | R+11 | Tom Tiffany (retiring) |
63.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Overall | D – 217 R – 202 16 tossups |
D – 216 R – 210 9 tossups |
D – 217 R – 204 14 tossups |
D – 220 R – 198 17 tossups |
D – 227 R – 195 13 tossups | |||