2024 Arizona Senate election

In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump each won 15 of Arizona's 30 legislative districts. Senate District 13, centered around the city of Chandler, which Biden won by 3% in 2020, was the only district Biden won in 2020 which was currently held by a Republican going into the 2024 Arizona Senate election.

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, Arizona was considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state and is seen as a purple state. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,^[2] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.^[3]

The Arizona Democratic Party has not won outright control of either state legislative chamber since the 1990s. The last time the party won control of both chambers was in the 1960s.^[4] Since then, the state's trend towards Democrats and a consolidated effort on flipping control of the legislature has made this election seen as a tossup with both parties having an equal chance to win control of one or both chambers.

This election is expected to be one of the most competitive state legislative races in the 2024 election cycle. Most ratings suggest the race to be a toss-up or having Democrats as the slight favorite to win the chamber. Additionally, the state Democratic Party's fundraising advantage is also expected to play a major role in which party wins control of the chamber.^[4] If Democrats won both chambers, it would have been the first time that Democrats had a trifecta in the state since 1966.^[5]

Party		Candidates	Votes		Seats
			No.	%	Before	After	+/–
	Republican	25	1,587,610	53.40	16	17	1
	Democratic	26	1,377,346	46.33	14	13	1
	Green	1	2,076	0.07	0	0
	Independent	1	6,061	0.20	0	0
Total			2,973,093	100.00	30	30

Seats where the margin of victory was under 10%:

• District 25: Sine Kerr was term-limited.^[12]
• District 27: Anthony Kern ran for the United States House of Representatives.^[13]
• District 30: Sonny Borrelli was term-limited.

• District 8: Juan Mendez was term-limited and ran for the Arizona House of Representatives.
• District 24: Anna Hernandez ran for the Phoenix City Council.^[14]

• District 1: Ken Bennett lost renomination to Mark Finchem.^[15]
• District 17: Justine Wadsack lost renomination to Vince Leach.^[15]

• District 4: Christine Marsh was defeated by Republican Carine Werner.^[16]