2024 California's 16th congressional district election
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November 5, 2024
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| Elections in California |
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The 2024 California's 16th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 16th congressional district. The election was held concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries.
The 16th district is an urban/suburban district based in Silicon Valley, including portions of Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, extending from the southwestern San Francisco Bay Area through the Santa Cruz Mountains to the Pacific coast. Its largest cities are San Jose, Mountain View, and Palo Alto.[1] Joe Biden won the district with 75.4% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election, making it a safe Democratic district.[2]
The incumbent prior to the election was Democrat Anna Eshoo, who was re-elected with 57.8% of the vote in 2022 running against another Democrat.[3] She did not seek re-election in 2024.[4] A wide field of 11 candidates filed for the race to succeed her, with 9 Democrats and 2 Republicans joining the race. The primary election was very close, with initial returns showing a heated battle for the two spots in the general election. A week after the primary, media outlets reported that former San Jose mayor Sam Liccardo had taken first place. However, it was unclear which candidate he would face in the general election, as state assemblyman Evan Low and Santa Clara County supervisor Joe Simitian repeatedly traded the second-place position during the vote tabulation process.[5]
By April 3, Low and Simitian had tied with 30,249 votes each in the final account, and both were expected to advance to the general election under a stipulation by California elections code regarding a second-place tie in primary elections.[5] However, a recount was requested by two voters shortly thereafter. The recount request was controversial, with Low's campaign accusing Liccardo of being behind it, an accusation which was vehemently denied by Liccardo's campaign.[6] At the conclusion of the recount on May 1, Low ultimately edged out Simitian by a margin of 5 votes, with Low gaining 12 votes and Simitian 7.[7] As required by federal law, the source of the recount funds was later revealed to be a pro-Liccardo super PAC funded almost entirely by billionaire Michael Bloomberg.[8][9]
On November 6, the Associated Press called the race for Liccardo.[10] Low conceded the same day.[11]
The primary results marked the second time since California transitioned to a nonpartisan blanket primary system in 2012 in which there was a second-place tie in a primary election and a potential three-candidate general election, the first being the 2016 election for California's 62nd State Assembly district.[a][5]
Candidates
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March 5, 2024
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| Turnout | 182,135 votes | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Advanced to general
- Sam Liccardo (Democratic), former mayor of San Jose (2015–2023)[12]
- Evan Low (Democratic), state assemblyman (2014–present)[13]
Initially advanced to general but eliminated after recount
- Joe Simitian (Democratic), Santa Clara County supervisor (1996–2000, 2013–present) and former state senator (2004–2012)[14]
Eliminated in primary
- Joby Bernstein (Democratic), financial advisor and graduate student[15]
- Peter Dixon (Democratic), cybersecurity executive and former U.S. State Department staffer[16]
- Rishi Kumar (Democratic), former Saratoga city councilor and runner-up for this district[b] in 2020 and 2022[15]
- Julie Lythcott-Haims (Democratic), Palo Alto city councilor[16]
- Ahmed Mostafa (Democratic), attorney[17]
- Peter Ohtaki (Republican), former mayor of Menlo Park and perennial candidate[15]
- Karl Ryan (Republican), businessman[15]
- Greg Tanaka (Democratic), Palo Alto city councilor and candidate for this district in 2022[17]
Declined
- Josh Becker (Democratic), state senator (2020–present)[18] (ran for re-election)[17]
- Marc Berman (Democratic), state assemblyman (2016–present)[19] (ran for re-election)[17]
- Anna Eshoo (Democratic), incumbent U.S. representative[4] (endorsed Simitian)[20]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Joby Bernstein (D) | $140,836[c] | $59,832 | $81,003 |
| Peter Dixon (D) | $2,792,923[d] | $1,894,060 | $898,862 |
| Rishi Kumar (D) | $289,503[e] | $186,637 | $101,756 |
| Sam Liccardo (D) | $2,206,228 | $988,382 | $1,217,845 |
| Evan Low (D) | $1,369,551[f] | $1,024,180 | $345,371 |
| Julie Lythcott-Haims (D) | $595,779 | $443,035 | $152,744 |
| Ahmed Mostafa (D) | $201,773 | $127,469 | $74,303 |
| Joe Simitian (D) | $951,156 | $932,783 | $588,744 |
| Greg Tanaka (D) | $15,080[g] | $13,182 | $1,898 |
| Peter Ohtaki (R) | $54,169[h] | $32,982 | $21,187 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[21] | |||
Endorsements
- U.S. representatives
- Jason Crow, CO-06 (2019–present)[22]
- Don Davis, NC-01 (2023–present)[22]
- Chris Deluzio, PA-17 (2023–present)[22]
- Jared Golden, ME-02 (2019–present)[22]
- Seth Moulton, MA-6 (2015–present)[23]
- Pat Ryan, NY-18 (2022–present)[22]
- Mikie Sherrill, NJ-11 (2019–present)[22]
- Organizations
- U.S. representatives
- Linda Sánchez, CA-38 (2003–present)[26]
- Local officials
- Matt Mahan, mayor of San Jose (2023–present)[27]
- Organizations
- Newspapers
- U.S. senators
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013–present)[32]
- U.S. representatives
- Lois Frankel, U.S. representative from Florida (2013–present)[33]
- Organizations
- Organizations
- U.S. senators
- Laphonza Butler, U.S. senator from California (2023–present)[37]
- Statewide officials
- Eleni Kounalakis, lieutenant governor of California (2019–present)[38]
- Ricardo Lara, California Insurance Commissioner (2019–present)[38]
- Fiona Ma, California State Treasurer (2019–present)[38]
- U.S. representatives
- Becca Balint, VT-AL (2023–present)[39]
- Judy Chu, CA-28 (2009–present)[40]
- Jimmy Gomez, CA-34 (2017–present)[39]
- Pramila Jayapal, WA-07 (2017–present)[41]
- Ro Khanna, CA-17 (2017–present)[13]
- Mark Pocan, WI-02 (2013–present)[41]
- Jamie Raskin, MD-08 (2017–present)[41]
- Mark Takano, CA-39 (2013–present)[40]
- Jill Tokuda, HI-02 (2023–present)[39]
- Ritchie Torres, NY-15 (2021–present)[42]
- State legislators
- Rich Gordon, state assemblymember from the 24th district (2010–2016)[38]
- County officials
- Ken Yeager, former Santa Clara County supervisor (2006–2018)[38]
- Judges
- LaDoris Cordell, former California Superior Court judge[38]
- Organizations
- AAPI Victory Fund[43]
- ASPIRE PAC[44]
- Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC[41]
- Equality California[45]
- Equality PAC[38]
- LGBTQ+ Victory Fund[46]
- Labor unions
- Association of Flight Attendants[47]
- California Federation of Labor[48]
- California Professional Firefighters[49]
- IBEW Locals 617 and 1245[50][51]
- National Nurses United[52]
- South Bay Labor Council[53]
- Newspapers
- Political parties
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[i] |
Margin of error |
Rishi Kumar (D) |
Sam Liccardo (D) |
Evan Low (D) |
Julie Lythcott- Haims (D) |
Peter Ohtaki (R) |
Karl Ryan (R) |
Joe Simitian (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Problosky Research[65][A] | January 21–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5% | 7.5% | 16% | 7.3% | 4% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 13.3% | 9.4%[j] | 33.8% |
| RMG Research[66][B] | January 3–4, 2024 | 426 (LV) | ± 4.7 | 6% | 13% | 11% | 5% | 2% | — | 12% | 2%[k] | 46% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[67][C] | November 2023 | 400 (LV) | ? | 7% | 16% | 5% | — | 6% | 9% | 12% | 11%[l] | 33% |
Initial certified results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Sam Liccardo | 38,489 | 21.1 | |
| Democratic | Evan Low | 30,249 | 16.6 | |
| Democratic | Joe Simitian | 30,249 | 16.6 | |
| Republican | Peter Ohtaki | 23,275 | 12.8 | |
| Democratic | Peter Dixon | 14,673 | 8.1 | |
| Democratic | Rishi Kumar | 12,377 | 6.8 | |
| Republican | Karl Ryan | 11,557 | 6.3 | |
| Democratic | Julie Lythcott-Haims | 11,383 | 6.2 | |
| Democratic | Ahmed Mostafa | 5,811 | 3.2 | |
| Democratic | Greg Tanaka | 2,421 | 1.3 | |
| Democratic | Joby Bernstein | 1,651 | 0.9 | |
| Total votes | 182,135 | 100.0 | ||
Recount and involvement of Liccardo super PACs
Santa Clara and San Mateo counties certified the primary results on April 4.[69] The Los Angeles Times pointed out that Low and Simitian had no incentive to request a recount, which could potentially lock them out of the general election.[5] Both campaigns released statements indicating that they intend to compete in the general election.[70] However, local media reported that a poll had been sent to voters testing a three-way race as well as two-way races between Liccardo and each of his opponents, leading to speculation that Liccardo's campaign would ask for a recount.[71] On April 9, officials in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties confirmed that two residents of the district had requested a recount: Jonathan Padilla, who was finance director on Liccardo's 2014 mayoral campaign and donated $1,000 to his 2024 congressional campaign, and Pacifica resident Dan Stegink.[6] Stegink later withdrew his request.[72]
Low's campaign alleged that Liccardo was behind the requests, which they called "a page right out of Trump's political playbook using dirty tricks to attack democracy and subvert the will of the voters." Liccardo's campaign denied responsibility, though they maintained the recount was necessary, saying "every vote should be counted."[73] Padilla, a "longtime Silicon Valley political insider," did not answer questions from local media about the source of the funds for the costly recount. Eshoo, who endorsed Simitian, called for transparency in the recount process.[74] In his recount request, Padilla wrote that he was "not coordinating or communicating with any candidate or candidates' agents" and made "this request on behalf of Evan Low."[75] However, Low's campaign reaffirmed that he did not support the recount and called Padilla's statement "disingenuous."[76]
Padilla submitted a $12,000 deposit for the recount on April 12. He opted for a machine recount, in which ballots are re-screened by a machine, rather than a much more expensive manual recount, in which volunteers would count each ballot by hand. Election officials estimated the cost of the machine recount at around $80,000, whereas a manual recount could have cost upwards of $400,000.[77] The recount began on April 15.[72]
According to reporting by KNTV, the recount is being funded by $12,000 checks from the newly-formed super PAC "Count the Vote" signed by James Sutton, an attorney who had previously represented Liccardo.[78] On April 19, Santa Clara County Government Attorneys Association president Max Zarzana filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission, alleging that the Liccardo campaign concocted a "secret scheme to illegally coordinate with a newly-formed dark money Super PAC to do his CD-16 recount bidding" and noted Liccardo's past connections with those involved in requesting the recount. Zarzana also highlighted Liccardo's history of "backroom deals" including violations of the California Public Records Act for which he was previously fined $500,000.[79]
The results of the recount were finalized on May 1, with Low advancing to the general election and Simitian eliminated by a 5-vote margin, 30,261 to 30,256.[7] On May 2, the Liccardo campaign shared internal poll results showing him with a 10-point lead over Low in a two-way race, compared with just a 5-point lead in a three-way race. The poll was completed on April 8, the day before the recount was requested.[80]
On May 20, Neighbors for Results, the super PAC supporting Liccardo almost entirely funded by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, disclosed that it paid $102,000 to the group which funded the recount, Count the Vote PAC.[8][9] The attorney who represented Padilla in his recount request, Matthew Alvarez, is also listed as the treasurer of both super PACs in question. In 2018, Bloomberg Philanthropies previously selected San Jose, which Liccardo was then mayor of, for funding and resources from the American Cities Climate Challenge, and two years later Liccardo then endorsed and served as a state co-chair on Bloomberg's presidential campaign.[81][76] After this information was publicized, a second Bay Area attorney, Brian O'Grady, filed a FEC complaint claiming that the PACs violated federal campaign finance laws in order to hide their connection with Liccardo's campaign.[82]
Post-recount results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Sam Liccardo | 38,492 | 21.1 | −0.005 | |
| Democratic | Evan Low | 30,261 | 16.6 | +0.002 | |
| Democratic | Joe Simitian | 30,256 | 16.6 | −0.001 | |
| Republican | Peter Ohtaki | 23,283 | 12.8 | +0.001 | |
| Democratic | Peter Dixon | 14,677 | 8.1 | −0.000 | |
| Democratic | Rishi Kumar | 12,383 | 6.8 | +0.001 | |
| Republican | Karl Ryan | 11,563 | 6.3 | +0.001 | |
| Democratic | Julie Lythcott-Haims | 11,386 | 6.2 | −0.000 | |
| Democratic | Ahmed Mostafa | 5,814 | 3.2 | +0.001 | |
| Democratic | Greg Tanaka | 2,421 | 1.3 | −0.000 | |
| Democratic | Joby Bernstein | 1,652 | 0.9 | +0.000 | |
| Total votes | 182,188 | 100.0 | |||
Federal Election Commission complaint against Low campaign
In October 2024, good-government group Defend the Vote[85] filed an FEC complaint against Low,[86] alleging that he had spent nearly $600,000[87] from his state campaign account on ads that were distributed across the congressional district. Defend the Vote argued that the move violated federal campaign finance laws,[88] as state campaigns can accept higher individual contributions than federal campaigns, and can receive political action committee and corporation donations directly.
In wake of the expenditures, an attorney for Liccardo sent cease and desist letters[87] to five TV stations that broadcast the ads. The Mercury News Editorial Board reaffirmed their endorsement of Liccardo,[89] criticizing Low for "putting political self-interest ahead of campaign integrity."
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[90] | Solid D | February 2, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[91] | Solid D | March 10, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[92] | Safe D | February 23, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[93] | Safe D | February 5, 2024 |
| CNalysis[94] | Solid D | November 16, 2023 |
Post-primary endorsements
- Organizations
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Democratic | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key:
P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
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| Liccardo | Low | |||||
| 1 | October 11, 2024 | KNTV KSTS KQED |
Raj Mathai | YouTube | P | P |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[i] |
Margin of error |
Sam Liccardo (D) |
Evan Low (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC/CSU[98][D] | September 14–21, 2024 | 544 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 27% | 30%[m] |
| EMC Research[99][E] | September 5–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies (D)[100][D] | September 4–7, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Tulchin Research (D)[101][F] | July 23–29, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Lake Research Partners (D)[102][G] | June 24–27, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Lake Research Partners (D)[103][G] | April 5–8, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[i] |
Margin of error |
Sam Liccardo (D) |
Evan Low (D) |
Joe Simitian (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners (D)[104][G] | April 5–8, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 26% | 21% | 20% | 24% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Sam Liccardo | 179,583 | 58.2% | ||
| Democratic | Evan Low | 128,893 | 41.8% | ||
| Total votes | 308,476 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| County[106] | Sam Liccardo Democratic |
Evan Low Democratic |
Margin | Total votes cast | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| San Mateo (part) | 36,540 | 62.27% | 22,142 | 37.73% | 14,398 | 24.54% | 58,682 |
| Santa Clara (part) | 143,043 | 57.26% | 106,751 | 42.74% | 36,292 | 14.53% | 249,794 |
| Totals | 179,583 | 58.22% | 128,893 | 41.78% | 50,690 | 16.43% | 308,476 |